June 2021 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 714 PM Thu June 24, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S CONTINUE VALID FOR THE DISTRICT - Message 1's will continue valid until 9:00pm although the threat for heavy rainfall is rapidly diminishing now that temperatures have cooled into the upper 60's to lower 70's. - The strongest storms of the day traversed from roughly Broomfield through Adams County between 5:30-7:00pm and generally produced 0.1-0.6" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. A quiet period is expected over the next hour with another weaker wave of showers/thunderstorms W of the Continental Divide that is poised to produce additional shower activity this evening over the District. - With the cooler temperatures the incoming wave later this evening is expected to remain weak and produce a few scattered showers but an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out and could produce brief moderate/heavy rain. A modest chance for shower activity will continue after Messages expire until midnight. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" of rain. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will produce 0.2-0.6" of rain in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of thunderstorm cells may result in up to 1.2" of rainfall in 30-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Lakewood 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 730 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 730 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 730 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 730 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 730 PM DIA 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 730 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 730 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 730 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 730 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 730 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 730 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 730 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 900 PM THU Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 900 PM THU Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 900 PM THU Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 900 PM THU Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 900 PM THU Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM THU Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 PM THU Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 900 PM THU Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM THU Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 PM THU Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 218 PM Thu June 24, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for the entire District and will be valid until 9pm this evening. - Modest surface moisture and a passing upper level disturbance will result in a round or two of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening over the District. Individual thunderstorms will be relatively fast moving from SW to NE at 20-25mph which will keep the majority of the moderate to heavy rainfall brief. The greatest threat for extended periods of heavy rainfall will be from "training" of multiple thunderstorm cells over a single location. Strong thunderstorms may also become severe with gusty winds and large hail being the primary threats. - Best chances for thunderstorm activity will be through about sunset with additional rain showers possible into the evening. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Moderate to strong thunderstorms will produce 0.3-0.8" of rain in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of thunderstorm cells may result in up to 1.6" of rainfall in 30-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 800 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 800 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 800 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 800 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 800 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 800 PM DIA 1 Current TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 800 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 800 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 800 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 800 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 800 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 800 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 900 PM THU 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 900 PM THU 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 900 PM THU 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 900 PM THU 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 900 PM THU 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM THU 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 PM THU 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 900 PM THU 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM THU 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 PM THU 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 849 AM Thu June 24, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- COOLER TODAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS - A weak disturbance moved through early this morning bringing very light rain showers for central and eastern portions of the District. Shower activity has moved eastward leaving mostly cloudy skies before afternoon temperatures reach the mid to upper 80's for the plains with upper 70's to around 80 along the foothills. A good chance this afternoon for rain/isolated thunderstorms with a slight chance for severe weather with gusty winds, hail up to 1", also including brief heavy rainfall favoring areas east of I-25 at this time. - Storms will initiate along the Palmer Divide by midday today with the best chance for rain showers/isolated thunderstorms in the District between 2-8pm. A couple rounds of storms are possible today, with the first round having the most potential for heavy rainfall. Storm motions will be fairly brisk between 10-15mph helping limit point rainfall amounts, although a slower moving storm, formed off an outflow boundary does have the potential for brief heavy rain. Storm intensities will start to decrease after 8pm, although rain showers or an isolated thunderstorm could be possible through midnight before chances finally taper off heading into the overnight. - Skies gradually clear after midnight as overnight lows drop into the upper 50's to low 60's along the plains with low to mid 50's in the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/thunderstorms will produce a TR-0.3" in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong thunderstorm will produce 0.3-0.5" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: An anchored thunderstorm, or a stationary thunderstorm formed off an outflow boundary has the potential to produce 0.5-1.0" in 30-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: An active weather pattern holds over the next several days as a slow-moving low pressure system moves from the SW makes its way through the region resulting in a good chance for rain/thunderstorms into the weekend. Friday will be slightly cooler as a cold front moves through overnight bringing highs into the low to mid 70's. A good chance Friday afternoon and evening for rain showers and thunderstorms with a good chance for some of those storms to become severe. Similar conditions Saturday as high temperatures remain in the low 70's with a continued chance for rain/thunderstorms off and on throughout the day. Sunday starts to dry out a bit, although with residual moisture in place and some upper-level support there will be another chance for rain showers/thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Arapahoe 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Boulder 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Broomfield 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Denver 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Jefferson 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 832 AM Wed June 23, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HOT AND HAZY WITH A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVE HIGH-BASED RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS - Another hot and hazy day as afternoon high temperatures reach the low to mid 90's on the plains with mid to upper 80's along the foothills. Wildfire smoke out west will continue to move into the region bringing hazy conditions throughout the day today. - A very slight chance for isolated afternoon and evening high-based rain/thunderstorms with little to no precipitation expected as most will evaporate before reaching the ground. The largest threat today will be gusty winds and possibly a few lightning strikes. Storms will initiate over the higher terrain afternoon noon with the best chance for storms over the District between 2-8pm. Rain chances taper off after 8pm with partly cloudy skies through the overnight. - Overnight lows will drop into the mid to upper 60's for the plains with upper 50's to low 60's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical high-based rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce a trace in 10-30 minutes. A stronger high-based rain shower/isolated thunderstorm could produce a trace-0.1" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: An anchored foothills rain shower/isolated thunderstorm has the potential to produce 0.1-0.3" in 60 to 90 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Similar conditions Thursday as high temperatures reach the mid to upper 80's in the afternoon with another slight chance for high-based rain showers/isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. A change in the pattern Friday as a cold front moves through the region bringing a better chance for rain showers/thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening with a slight chance for those storms to become severe. Cooler temperatures will also accompany this cold front with highs in the mid to upper 70's for the plains with low 70's along the foothills. Cooler high temperatures and rain chances continue Saturday with low 70's in the afternoon along with a continued chance for rain/thunderstorms, along with a slight chance for severe weather if we are able to get enough daytime heating. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) to 0.3" (0%) NONE Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) to 0.3" (0%) NONE Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) to 0.3" (0%) NONE Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) to 0.3" (0%) NONE Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) to 0.3" (0%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) to 0.3" (0%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) to 0.3" (0%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (15%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (15%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (15%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 809 AM Tue June 22, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARMING BACK INTO THE 90'S WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS - The airmass providing the cooler than normal temperatures quickly retreats today as high pressure rapidly builds over the District. Highs this afternoon will climb into the low and mid 90's over the plains with 80's in the Front Range foothills. - Conditions will trend dry but there will be a build-up of fair weather cumulus clouds this afternoon and a very isolated shower or weak thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out over the foothills and Palmer Divide. If a shower or weak thunderstorm is able to develop meaningful precipitation is not expected, less than 0.10". - Wildfires burning to the W will result in an increase in smoke/haze resulting in somewhat reduced visibilities as the day wears on. If there is anything positive about having hazy/smoky skies is that it will likely make for a colorful sunset this evening. The haze may be persistent over the coming days pending the fire activity over western Colorado? STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No meaningful precipitation expected today or tonight. A LOOK AHEAD: We will tack on another 2-3 degrees on Wednesday with highs well into the 90's over the plains with a few locations possibly touching 100 briefly. Generally dry conditions expected but if you are lucky a high based gusty sprinkle or weak thunderstorm may be observed providing a bit of relief from the heat for some in the afternoon. Cooler Thursday behind a weak front with highs in the 80s. There will be more moisture to work with and a very good chance for most areas to see an afternoon thunderstorm or two. Some storms could become strong to severe with brief heavy rainfall. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 813 AM Mon June 21, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY - Temperatures will be unseasonably cool today behind last evenings cold front with highs in the 70's over the plains with 60's in the Front Range foothills. Normal high for Denver today is 85 degrees. The rain shower activity has shifted south of the District with dry conditions expected for the remainder of the day. Cloud cover this morning will dissipate giving way to mostly sunny skies this afternoon. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation expected today or tonight. A LOOK AHEAD: Enjoy the cooler than normal temperatures while they last as the cool airmass quickly retreats on Tuesday with highs warming right back into the 90's. Dry Tuesday with abundant sunshine but there will likely be some haze/smoke due to multiple wildfires burning to our west. Temperatures will peak on Wednesday in the upper 90's to around 100 with dry conditions expected but if you are lucky a high based gusty sprinkle or weak thunderstorm may be observed providing a bit of relief from the heat for some in the afternoon. Cooler Thursday behind a weak front with highs in the 80's. There will be more moisture to work with and a very good chance for most areas to see an afternoon thunderstorm or two. Some storms could become strong to severe with the potential for heavy rainfall. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 845 AM Sun June 20, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT - Behind the upper level disturbance that moved through the District yesterday conditions will be relatively quiet through the day today until a cold front arrives this evening. A weak, preliminary cold front has moved through this morning which will help to keep temperatures in the 80's for highs over the plains. Daytime heating may generate an isolated thunderstorm or two this afternoon, favoring the higher terrain producing light to briefly moderate rain. - The main focus is on the approaching strong cold front that will move through the District this evening, sometime between 6-9pm. Along and just behind the front there will be a chance for thunderstorms but as temperatures cool any thunderstorm activity will quickly transition to general rain showers. Best chances for thunderstorm activity outside isolated storms this afternoon will be just ahead of and behind the front in the 6-10pm time frame. After 10pm any thunderstorm activity will diminish with intermittent light rain showers continuing overnight into early Monday morning. Heavy rainfall is not expected today but cannot be ruled out if strong thunderstorms develop this evening. - Lingering rain showers into Monday morning have likely ended by around daybreak or shortly after. Clouds will decrease and eventually become sunny/mostly sunny in the afternoon. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" of rain. Moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.2-0.4" in 10-30 minutes. Intermittent rain showers overnight will generally produce rainfall rates of 0.1-0.2"/hr. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong slower moving thunderstorm is able to develop this evening along the front this evening with the potential to produce 0.3-0.8" of rain in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Any lingering rain shower activity Monday morning will end by around 10am. Skies will become sunny to mostly sunny with highs only reaching the 70's for highs over the plains with 60's in the Front Range foothills. Daytime heating may generate a shower or thunderstorm Monday afternoon over the higher terrain with the plains looking to remain on the dry side. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 600 PM TO 800 AM MON Trace (100%) to 0.2" (65%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Arapahoe 600 PM TO 800 AM MON Trace (100%) to 0.2" (65%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Boulder 600 PM TO 800 AM MON Trace (100%) to 0.2" (65%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Broomfield 600 PM TO 800 AM MON Trace (100%) to 0.2" (65%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Denver 600 PM TO 800 AM MON Trace (100%) to 0.2" (65%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Douglas 600 PM TO 800 AM MON Trace (100%) to 0.2" (65%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Jefferson 600 PM TO 800 AM MON Trace (100%) to 0.2" (65%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 600 PM TO 800 AM MON Trace (100%) to 0.2" (65%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Douglas 600 PM TO 800 AM MON Trace (100%) to 0.2" (65%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Jefferson 600 PM TO 800 AM MON Trace (100%) to 0.2" (65%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 744 PM Sat June 19, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8PM - Message 1's will be allowed to expire at 8pm as the threat for heavy rainfall has ended for the day. - Thunderstorm activity has diminished with generally dry conditions expected for the remainder of the evening and overnight period. - A very isolated light rain shower cannot be completely ruled out this evening but any additional rainfall will be insignificant. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No meaningful precipitation expected for the remainder of the evening and overnight. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Lakewood 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 800 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 800 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 800 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 800 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 800 PM DIA 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 800 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 800 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 800 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 800 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 800 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 800 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 800 PM MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 253 PM Sat June 19, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S WILL CONTINUE VALID, ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE - Message 1's will continue valid until 8:00pm this evening as another round of thunderstorms is possible over the District and may contain heavy rainfall. - Behind the first round of thunderstorms that moved through the District there is a lull expected over the next couple hours with another round possible between 5-7pm. If temperatures recover back into the upper 80s over the coming hours this second round of storms may become strong with the potential for brief heavy rainfall. If temperatures do not recover well then additional thunderstorms this afternoon may trend on the weaker side. - Strong thunderstorms that develop today may also become severe with gusty winds in excess of 50mph and large hail of 1" or more in diameter being the primary threats. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A large, slower moving thunderstorm or training of thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 1.5" of rain in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 400 PM TO 700 PM Jefferson County 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 400 PM TO 700 PM Broomfield County 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 400 PM TO 700 PM Douglas County 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 400 PM TO 700 PM Adams County 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 400 PM TO 700 PM Denver County 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 400 PM TO 700 PM DIA 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 400 PM TO 700 PM Arapahoe County 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 400 PM TO 700 PM the City of Aurora 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 400 PM TO 700 PM Arvada 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 400 PM TO 700 PM Wheat Ridge 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 400 PM TO 700 PM Lakewood 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 400 PM TO 700 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 400 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (15%) ISSUED Arapahoe 400 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (15%) ISSUED Boulder 400 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (15%) ISSUED Broomfield 400 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (15%) ISSUED Denver 400 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (15%) ISSUED Douglas 400 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson 400 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (15%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 400 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (15%) ISSUED Douglas 400 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson 400 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (15%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1159 AM Sat June 19, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for the entire District and will be valid until 8:00pm this evening. - Modest surface moisture in tandem with a passing upper level disturbance will result in a round of thunderstorms this afternoon. Relatively fast storm motions from W to E at around 20mph will keep the potential for heavy rainfall short lived most areas. Training of thunderstorm cells or a large, slower moving strong thunderstorm will have the potential to produce an extended period of heavy rain that may lead to excessive runoff. - Strong thunderstorms that develop today may also become severe with gusty winds in excess of 50mph, large hail of 1" or more in diameter being the primary threats. Generally one round of thunderstorms is expected but some areas could see a couple rounds of thunderstorm activity. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.3-0.9" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A large, slower moving thunderstorm or training of thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 1.6" of rain in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 130 PM TO 700 PM Jefferson County 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 130 PM TO 700 PM Broomfield County 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 130 PM TO 700 PM Douglas County 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 130 PM TO 700 PM Adams County 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 130 PM TO 700 PM Denver County 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 130 PM TO 700 PM DIA 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 130 PM TO 700 PM Arapahoe County 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 130 PM TO 700 PM the City of Aurora 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 130 PM TO 700 PM Arvada 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 130 PM TO 700 PM Wheat Ridge 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 130 PM TO 700 PM Lakewood 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 130 PM TO 700 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 1230 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.9" (30%) ISSUED Arapahoe 1230 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.9" (30%) ISSUED Boulder 1230 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (25%) ISSUED Broomfield 1230 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (25%) ISSUED Denver 1230 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (30%) ISSUED Douglas 1230 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson 1230 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (25%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 800 PM SAT 0.1" (95%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (20%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 800 PM SAT 0.1" (95%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 800 PM SAT 0.1" (95%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (20%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 6 months

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