June 2021 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 819 AM Sat June 19, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARM TODAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS - An active weather pattern is in place this weekend with a good chance for afternoon rain/isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Currently temperatures are in the upper 60's to low 70's and will reach around 90 degrees for highs today. A disturbance will move through the region this afternoon resulting in good chance for rain showers/isolated thunderstorms with a moderate chance for severe thunderstorms with brief heavy rain, gusty winds and hail around 1" in diameter. - Storms will initiate over the higher terrain after noon today with the best chance for storms across the District between 2-8pm with a few scattered rain/isolated thunderstorms possible after 8pm, favoring north and eastern portions of the District. Storm motions will be from the W/NW to E/SE between 10-20mph which will help limit point rainfall amounts, however a storm developing off an outflow boundary will have the potential to produce moderate to brief heavy rainfall today. - Skies will gradually clear later in the evening with overnight lows dropping into the low to mid 60's for the plains with upper 50's to around 60 along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.3" of rain. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: An anchored thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells may result in up to 1.5" of rainfall in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: A break in storm activity during the day Sunday before a strong low-pressure system moves in from the north bringing a better chance for widespread moderate to heavy rainfall Sunday evening with a chance for lingering rain showers through the overnight and into Monday morning. Monday will be much cooler with high temperatures not making it out of the 70's with partly cloudy skies throughout the day. A slight chance Monday afternoon for additional rain showers or an isolated thunderstorms, although the threat for heavy rainfall remains minimal at this time. High-pressure quickly returns Tuesday as high temperatures jump back into the 90's with dry conditions expected throughout the day. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 114 PM Fri June 18, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE RESULTING IN HIGHER THREAT FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL - Behind the cold front that has knocked temperatures back from record breaking levels surface moisture is on the increase. Dew points have climbed into the low and mid 50's over E areas of the District while remaining in the 30's west. With upslope north/northeast winds in place moisture is expected to continue to spread west and southward. - With more moisture to work with than previously anticipated the threat for heavy rainfall has increased slightly. Upper level steering winds at around 25mph will keep storms moving along at a fairly steady pace resulting in any heavy rainfall being brief for the most part. If a thunderstorm is able to anchor for any length of time due to the surface upslope then an extended period of heavy rain is possible which may lead to excessive runoff. - Stronger thunderstorms may also become severe with gutsy winds in excess of 50mph and large hail being the primary threats. Best chances for a round of thunderstorms is between 4-8pm. Areas favored for heavier rainfall will be along and E of I-25 where moisture will be more abundant. By around sunset any shower or thunderstorm activity is expected to have diminished. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.3" of rain. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: An anchored thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells may result in up to 1.5" of rainfall in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Storm chances pick up into the weekend as high temperatures remain in the mid 80's to low 90's both Saturday and Sunday. Similar conditions will be in place for Saturday with afternoon and early evening rain/isolated thunderstorms with a low potential for heavy rainfall. Sunday will feature a modest chance for thunderstorms with heavy rainfall as an upper level disturbance moves through. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 300 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (20%) HIGH Arapahoe 300 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (20%) HIGH Boulder 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD Broomfield 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD Denver 300 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) HIGH Douglas 300 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (20%) HIGH Jefferson 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (90%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (90%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (90%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 840 AM Fri June 18, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HEAT WAVE BREAKS! BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON RAIN/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS - Finally a reprieve from triple digit temperatures! A relatively weak cold front has just passed through Greeley from the N/NE which will continue to move southward and will effectively keep high temperatures in the upper 80's to low 90's this afternoon. This cold front will also help keep some surface moisture in place today with dew points in the 40's leading to a better chance for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms with a very slight chance for severe thunderstorms with brief heavy rain, gusty winds and hail around 1" in diameter. - Storms will initiate over the higher terrain after noon today with the best chance for storms across the District between 2-8pm with a few scattered rain/isolated thunderstorms after 8pm, favoring eastern portions of the District. Storm motions will be from the W/SW to E/NE between 10-15mph which will help limit point rainfall amounts, however a storm developing off an outflow boundary has the potential to produce moderate to brief heavy rainfall today. - Skies will gradually clear this evening with overnight lows dropping into the low to mid 60's for the plains with upper 50's to around 60 along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce a trace-0.2" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. A moderate rain shower/isolated thunderstorms will produce 0.2-0.5" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: An anchored thunderstorm, or a a stronger thunderstorm developed off an outflow boundary has the potential to produce 1" of rainfall in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Storm chances pick up into the weekend as high temperatures remain in the mid 80's to low 90's both Saturday and Sunday. Similar conditions will be in place for Saturday with afternoon and early evening rain/isolated thunderstorms. The best chance for heavy rainfall will be Sunday as an uptick in upper-level moisture moves over the region with rain chances continuing through the overnight and into Monday morning. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 834 AM Thu June 17, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- RECORD BREAKING HEAT ONCE AGAIN WITH A CHANCE FOR HIGH-BASED AFTERNOON RAIN/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS - The heat wave continues for one more day as high temperatures reach the upper 90's to low triple digits again this afternoon. Overnight lows remained in the mid to upper 60s for most areas in the District with temperatures already closing in on 80 degrees this morning. - Similar conditions as yesterday with a very slight chance for a few high-based rain showers/isolated thunderstorms, however most rainfall will struggle to reach the surface today with the main threat likely being gusty winds and a few lightning strikes. Storm motions will be from the W to E between 5-15mph. If a stronger, slower moving storm is able to develop rainfall rates could reach the 0.1-0.3" range, although chances are unlikely that will occur. Storms will initiate along the higher terrain around midday with the best storm chances for the District between 2-8pm this afternoon. - After 8pm, skies will gradually clear this evening with overnight lows dropping into the 60's for the plains with upper 50's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical high-based rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce between a trace-0.1" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. A moderate rain shower/thunderstorm is capable of producing 0.1-0.3" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Anchored thunderstorms along the foothills, or a thunderstorm that forms along an outflow boundary has the potential to produce 0.3-0.8" in 60-90 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: A reprieve from triple digit high temperatures tomorrow as a cold front moves through the region overnight tonight. Temperatures tomorrow will reach the upper 80's to low 90's on the plains with a better chance for afternoon and evening rain/isolated thunderstorms as upper-level moisture increases over the region. This pattern will hold through the weekend with temperatures remaining in the upper 80's to low 90's Saturday and Sunday with rain/isolated thunderstorm chances for both days with Saturday having the most potential for heavy rainfall at this time. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (25%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (25%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (25%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (25%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (25%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (25%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (25%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (25%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (25%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (25%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 833 AM Wed June 16, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ANOTHER RECORD BREAKING HOT DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGH-BASED AFTERNOON RAIN/ISOALTED THUNDERSTORMS - The heat wave continues as high temperatures reach the upper 90's to low triple digits today. Overnight lows remained above 70 for most areas in the District with temperatures already closing in on 80 degrees this morning. - Mostly sunny skies currently with clouds increasing into the afternoon. A very slight chance today for a few high-based rain showers/isolated thunderstorms, however most rainfall will struggle to reach the surface today with the main threat likely being gusty winds and a few lightning strikes. Storm motions will be from the W to E between 5-10mph. If a stronger, slower moving storm is able to develop rainfall rates could reach the 0.1-0.3" range, although chances are unlikely at this time. Storms will initiate along the higher terrain around midday with the best storm chances for the District between 1-6pm this afternoon. Storms have a better chance of picking up in intensity as they move further eastward and away from the District. - Skies will gradually clear this evening with overnight lows dropping into the upper 60's to around 70 for the plains with low to mid 60's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical high-based rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce between a trace-0.1" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. A moderate rain shower/thunderstorm is capable of producing 0.1-0.3" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Anchored thunderstorms, or a thunderstorm that forms along an outflow boundary has the potential to produce 0.3-0.8" in 60-90 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Hot conditions persist at least through tomorrow as high temperatures are once again expected to hit the triple digit mark in the afternoon/early evening. Similar conditions weather wise as a few high-based rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will be possible. A cold front moves through the overnight and into Friday effectively bringing high temperatures into a cooler upper 80's to low 90's. A better chance for rain showers/isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Hot temperatures remain through the weekend with rain showers/thunderstorm chances picking up both Saturday and Sunday. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Boulder 200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Broomfield 200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Denver 200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 100 PM TO 500 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 500 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 500 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 948 AM Tue June 15, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- DRY WITH RECORD BREAKING HEAT - Temperatures will peak in the upper 90's to lower 100's over the the District this afternoon resulting in record breaking heat. Average highs for Denver today are 83 degrees. The record high of 97 set in 1952 and tied in 1993 is expected to be broken at DIA this afternoon. - Skies will remain on the sunny side with clouds developing over the foothills and along the Palmer Divide in the afternoon. Upper level steering winds from the N is expected to keep any thunderstorm activity well to the S and SW of the District. Far S Douglas and Jefferson Counties outside the District boundaries stand the best chances for a stray storm this afternoon. - Smoke from wildfires over Utah will likely result in an increase in hazy conditions reducing visibilities later today. The upper level smoke/haze will also make for a colorful sunset this evening. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation expected today or tonight. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Thunderstorms that develop over the crest of the Palmer Divide push an outflow boundary northward initiating isolated thunderstorms over the District. A LOOK AHEAD: Mid and upper level moisture will increase on Wednesday and will result in more cloud cover in the afternoon likely reducing high temperatures by a degree or two. There will be a chance for isolated high-based afternoon thunderstorms providing a bit of relief from the heat for some. Storms Wednesday generally produce minimal rain and gusty winds but a stronger storm may contain moderate rainfall. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 825 AM Mon June 14, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HEAT WAVE INTENSIFIES - Strengthening ridge of high pressure over the state of Colorado will result in near record breaking heat over the next few days. For today temperatures will climb into the upper 90's to around 100 degrees over the plains. Record high for Denver today is 102 and we likely end up a degree or two short of the record. - Warming temperatures aloft should keep a lid on any thunderstorm development today with a build up of some fair weather clouds this afternoon making for mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies at times. Any thunderstorm activity is expected to remain well S and E of the District today. - Conditions remain dry overnight with lows bottoming out in the 60's over the plains. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation expected today or tonight. A LOOK AHEAD: Temperatures will tack on another 1-3 degrees on Tuesday with highs either side of 100 degrees over the plains! With a little more moisture to work with on Tuesday there could be an isolated storm or two in the afternoon which will help to alleviate the heat for some. Another hot day Wednesday with highs around 100 and a slight chance for afternoon thunderstorms. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 855 PM Sun June 13, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9:30 PM - Message 1's issued for the entire District will expire at 9:30pm as the threat for heavy rainfall has come to an end. - Strong to severe thunderstorms impacted portions of the District this afternoon and early evening bringing heavy rain, lots of lightning and large hail. Storms have moved onto the eastern plains at this time, although a few lingering rain showers and isolated thunderstorms persist at the eastern fringes of the District. Rain showers and isolated thunderstorm activity will continue to diminish as the evening progresses. - Skies will start to clear through the overnight with temperatures dropping into the upper 50's to low 60's for the plains with low to mid 50's along the foothills into Monday morning. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.1" in 10-30 minutes. A stronger thunderstorm will be capable of producing 0.1-0.3" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow moving, or stationary rain shower will have the potential to produce 0.3-0.5" in 30-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Arvada 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 930 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 930 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 930 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 930 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 930 PM DIA 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 930 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 930 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 930 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 930 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 930 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 930 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 930 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 1159 PM SUN Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM SUN Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Boulder Current TO 1159 PM SUN Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) to 0.3" (0%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM SUN Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) to 0.3" (0%) NONE Denver Current TO 1159 PM SUN Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1159 PM SUN Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM SUN Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) to 0.3" (0%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1159 PM SUN Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) to 0.3" (0%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1159 PM SUN Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) to 0.3" (0%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM SUN Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) to 0.3" (0%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 420 PM Sun June 13, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for the entire District and will remain valid until 9:30pm this evening. - Thunderstorms are beginning to initialize along a wind convergence line that extends from roughly Arvada to Parker currently. With ample surface moisture in place storms that develop through the remainder of the afternoon may become strong with the potential to produce heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. - Upper level steering winds from NW to SE at around 15mph will keep heavy rainfall relatively brief from most storms. Training of thunderstorm cells or strong thunderstorms that stall along surface wind convergence boundaries will pose a risk for an extended period of heavy rainfall. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.3-0.9" of rain in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Strong/slow moving thunderstorms or training of thunderstorm cells have the potential to produce up to 1.8" in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 930 PM 430 PM TO 830 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 930 PM 430 PM TO 830 PM DIA 1 Current TO 930 PM 430 PM TO 830 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 930 PM 430 PM TO 830 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 930 PM 430 PM TO 830 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 930 PM 430 PM TO 830 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 930 PM 430 PM TO 830 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 930 PM 430 PM TO 830 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 930 PM 430 PM TO 830 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 930 PM 430 PM TO 830 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 930 PM 430 PM TO 830 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 930 PM 430 PM TO 830 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 930 PM SUN 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 930 PM SUN 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.8" (40%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 930 PM SUN 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 930 PM SUN 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 930 PM SUN 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.8" (40%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 930 PM SUN 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.8" (40%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 930 PM SUN 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 930 PM SUN 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (15%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 930 PM SUN 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 930 PM SUN 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (15%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 6 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1230 PM Sun June 13, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING AS MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN ELEVATED ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR - A boom or bust thunderstorm forecast remains in place today as easterly winds are keeping surface moisture elevated along the I-25 corridor with dew points currently in the low 50's to lower 60's. A warm layer of air aloft will need to be overcome in order to tap into the rich surface moisture as fuel for thunderstorms. There remains a high amount of uncertainty as to whether or not all the ingredients will come together just right for storms today but if they form they will become strong/severe. - Daytime heating alone is likely not be enough to overcome the stable/warm layer aloft but outflow boundaries from thunderstorms outside the District could be the trigger needed for thunderstorm initiation within District boundaries. Thunderstorms are currently building south along the crest of the Palmer Divide and these initial storms will have the potential to produce a rain cooled outflow/gust front that may move northward over the coming hours. - If temperatures warm enough to initiate convection or if a thunderstorm outflow boundary moves into the District Message 1's may need to be issued. The next few hours will be telling on how the rest of the afternoon will play out. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.3" of rain. Strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.3-0.9" of rain in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Moisture levels remain elevated with strong/slow moving thunderstorms having the potential to produce up to 1.8" in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: The heat wave intensifies on Tuesday with temperatures reaching the mid 90's to around 100 degrees over the plains. Temperatures will peak on Tuesday in the upper 90's to lower 100's. Dry conditions are expected both days. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD Arapahoe 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD Boulder 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD Broomfield 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD Denver 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD Douglas 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD Jefferson 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.3" (35%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD Douglas 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (90%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD Jefferson 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (90%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 6 months

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