June 2021 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 944 PM Sat June 5, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR DOUGLAS COUNTY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10:00 PM - Message 1's will be allowed to expire for Douglas County since the threat for Heavy Rain has come to and end. - Late this afternoon a gust front pushed into Douglas County from the south resulting in explosive storm development which included heavy rain, lots of lightning and large hail. Additional storms would fire up along outflow boundaries well into the evening with thunderstorms clinging to the foothills and moving north into Boulder at this time. As these thunderstorms move northward, they are decreasing rapidly into just rain showers and will diminish completely by midnight with skies gradually clearing into Sunday. - Overnight will be fairly mild as lows drop into the 50's. Another chance for rain showers/thunderstorms tomorrow, with a chance for heavy rainfall once again as warm temperatures, decent surface moisture with dew points in the 40's with relatively slow storm motions. At this time, the best chance for storm initiation will be around midday tomorrow with chances continuing into the evening. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a TR-0.1" (Favoring NW portions of the District). A moderate thunderstorm could produce 0.1-0.3" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving thunderstorm has the potential to produce 0.3-0.8" in 60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (30%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Boulder Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (30%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Denver Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (30%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (50%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (30%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (30%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 722 PM Sat June 5, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR DOUGLAS COUNTY ADDITIONAL MESSAGES POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. - Message 1's have been issued for Douglas County and will be valid until 10pm this evening. - Moderate to strong thunderstorms have developed over Douglas County behind a gust front that originated south of the District. As this gust front moves northward additional thunderstorms may develop and additional Message 1's may need to be issued. - Strong thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, hail and gusty winds. Storm motions are very slow or nearly stationary and can lead to a prolonged period of heavy rain that may lead to excessive runoff. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Moderate to strong thunderstorms will produce 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A nearly stationary strong thunderstorm may result in heavy rainfall of 0.40-1.40" in 15-45 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 1000 PM SAT 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (15%) to 0.8" (5%) LOW Arapahoe Current TO 1000 PM SAT 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD Boulder Current TO 1000 PM SAT 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (15%) to 0.8" (5%) LOW Broomfield Current TO 1000 PM SAT 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (15%) to 0.8" (5%) LOW Denver Current TO 1000 PM SAT 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW Douglas Current TO 1000 PM SAT 0.1" (95%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.8" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM SAT 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (15%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1000 PM SAT 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (15%) to 0.8" (5%) LOW Douglas Current TO 1000 PM SAT 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (80%) to 0.8" (40%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM SAT 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 844 AM Sat June 5, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HOT WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE FOOTHILLS - A summer-like day over the District with temperatures warming to well above normal in the upper 80's to lower 90's over the plains with 70's and lower 80's in the Front Range foothills. Normal high for Denver today is 80 degrees. Skies will be sunny this morning and begin to cloud up as thunderstorms develop over the higher terrain by early afternoon. - Weak steering winds aloft from N to S will keep the majority of the thunderstorm activity over the higher terrain today. Rain cooled outflow from the initial foothill storms may push eastward onto the I-25 corridor and generate additional thunderstorm development by mid afternoon. The storms on the plains will be isolated while the coverage over the foothills is more scattered. Best chances for thunderstorm activity will be from 2-9pm foothills and from 4-9pm over the plains. - Surface moisture is limited resulting in most storms that develop today producing light to brief moderate rainfall and gusty winds. An outflow induced thunderstorm that remains nearly stationary could become strong and may be capable of brief heavy rainfall and hail. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical weak to moderate thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.15". A stronger thunderstorm will have the potential to produce 0.15-0.40" of rain in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A nearly stationary strong thunderstorm may result in heavy rainfall of 0.40-1.20" in 15-45 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: An uptick in thunderstorm activity is expected on Sunday over the District with temperatures continuing to run above normal in the upper 80's to around 90 over the plains. Afternoon thunderstorms will generally produce light to moderate rain and gusty winds much like today but a stronger storm will be capable of producing brief heavy rainfall. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 400 PM TO 900 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 400 PM TO 900 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Boulder 400 PM TO 900 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Broomfield 400 PM TO 900 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Denver 400 PM TO 900 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Douglas 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Jefferson 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (95%) to 0.2" (70%) to 0.4" (20%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (95%) to 0.2" (70%) to 0.4" (20%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (95%) to 0.2" (70%) to 0.4" (20%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 757 AM Fri June 4, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- DRY WITH THE FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR? - Conditions will be dry over the District today as high pressure aloft dominates the weather pattern. Temperatures will warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s over the plains with 70's and 80's in the Front Range foothills. - If we reach 90 it will be the first 90 degree day of the season. Normal high for Denver today is 79 degrees. June 10th is the average date for the first 90 degree day of the season so we are a little early if we reach 90 today. Skies will be sunny to mostly sunny with light and variable winds making for pleasant outdoor conditions. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation today and tonight. A LOOK AHEAD: If DIA does not reach 90 degrees today it most certainly will tomorrow as highs are projected to reach the lower 90's most areas. A weak upper level disturbance will move into the District in the afternoon and result in widely scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. The storms that develop Saturday will produce light to briefly moderate rain and gusty winds. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 853 AM Thu June 3, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- SUNNY, WARMER AND DRY TODAY - A high-pressure ridge is forming over the region and will remain in place over the next couple of days. This ridge will lead to dry condition across the District throughout the day today. - High temperatures will reach the low to mid 80's on the plains with mid to upper 70's along the foothills under mostly sunny skies. - Overnight will be mild as temperatures drop into the low to mid 50's with clear skies. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected today or this evening. A LOOK AHEAD: Temperatures only increase into the mid to upper 80's tomorrow as high-pressure builds over the region with continued dry conditions. Flat out hot Saturday as temperatures hit 90 degrees for the first time this year! A slight chance Saturday afternoon and evening for scattered rain showers/thunderstorms, although the biggest threat will be gusty winds and some lightning as any precipitation will struggle to reach the ground. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 905 AM Wed June 2, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARM AND SUNNY WITH A FEW ISOLATED FOOTHILLS RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS - High-pressure will start to build today leading to generally dry conditions with a very slight chance for some isolated rain showers/thunderstorms along the foothills. High temperatures this afternoon will reach the mid to upper 70's on the plains with low 70's along the foothills. - A few isolated rain showers/thunderstorms will initiate along the Continental Divide around midday, with a few of those storms moving eastward and onto the foothills this afternoon. N/NW winds aloft should help limit any storms from moving onto the plains as most storms will keep anchored to the higher terrain. Best chance for storms will be from 1-5pm with conditions drying out into the evening as skies clear into the overnight. - Overnight will be mild, with temperatures dropping into the low 50's. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical foothill rain showers will produce a trace-0.1" in 10-30 minutes. A weak thunderstorm will produce 0.1-0.2" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: An anchored foothill rain shower or moderate thunderstorm could produce 0.2-0.5" in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: High-pressure will hold through the rest of the week with generally dry conditions although a few high-based storms with minimal precipitation cannot be completely ruled out. High temperatures will only increase through the weekend with 80's expected Thursday/Friday with highs around 90 degrees for Saturday. Saturday will also bring a chance for afternoon rain showers/thunderstorms although the threat for heavy rainfall looks minimal at this time. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (5%) to 0.1" (0%) NONE Arapahoe 200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (5%) to 0.1" (0%) NONE Boulder 200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (5%) to 0.1" (0%) NONE Broomfield 200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (5%) to 0.1" (0%) NONE Denver 200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (5%) to 0.1" (0%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (5%) to 0.1" (0%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 600 PM Trace (5%) to 0.1" (0%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 100 PM TO 500 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 500 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 500 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 856 AM Tue June 1, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARM TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS - NW flow aloft will dominate over the region today as temperatures remain slightly below average with highs in the upper 60's to low 70's this afternoon. - A weak disturbance moves in from the NW this afternoon, which will bring increased cloud cover along with a chance for scattered rain showers/isolated thunderstorms. Storm motions will be between 10-20mph, which will limit point rainfall amounts. Typical rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.1" of rain in 10-30 minutes, however a slower moving thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorms, especially along the foothills, could bring isolated higher amounts. Best chance for rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will be from 1-7pm, with skies clearing into the evening. - Overnight lows will drop into the upper 40's to low 50's on the plains with low to mid 40's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.1" of rain. A moderate thunderstorm over the higher terrain may result in 0.1-0.3" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving moderate thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorms has the potential to produce 0.6-1.0" in 30-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: High-pressure start to build this evening and into tomorrow bringing mild and dry conditions through the rest of the week. Temperatures will also begin to increase tomorrow with highs returning to average in the mid 70's to mid 80's through Friday. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Arapahoe 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Boulder 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Broomfield 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Denver 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 5 months

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