Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2@udfcd.org
Time: 944 PM Sat June 5, 2021
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR DOUGLAS COUNTY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
10:00 PM
-
Message 1's will be allowed to expire for Douglas County since the
threat for Heavy Rain has come to and end.
-
Late this afternoon a gust front pushed into Douglas County from the
south resulting in explosive storm development which included heavy
rain, lots of lightning and large hail. Additional storms would fire
up along outflow boundaries well into the evening with thunderstorms
clinging to the foothills and moving north into Boulder at this time.
As these thunderstorms move northward, they are decreasing rapidly
into just rain showers and will diminish completely by midnight with
skies gradually clearing into Sunday.
-
Overnight will be fairly mild as lows drop into the 50's. Another
chance for rain showers/thunderstorms tomorrow, with a chance for
heavy rainfall once again as warm temperatures, decent surface
moisture with dew points in the 40's with relatively slow storm
motions. At this time, the best chance for storm initiation will be
around midday tomorrow with chances continuing into the evening.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and weak
thunderstorms will produce a TR-0.1" (Favoring NW portions of the
District). A moderate thunderstorm could produce 0.1-0.3" in 10-30
minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving thunderstorm has the potential to
produce 0.3-0.8" in 60 minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Boulder County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
Douglas County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
Adams County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
Denver County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
DIA
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
Arvada
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
Lakewood
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Â
Â
Â
Adams
Current TO 1159 PM SAT
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%)
NONE
Arapahoe
Current TO 1159 PM SAT
Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%)
NONE
Boulder
Current TO 1159 PM SAT
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Broomfield
Current TO 1159 PM SAT
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%)
NONE
Denver
Current TO 1159 PM SAT
Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%)
NONE
Douglas
Current TO 1159 PM SAT
Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%)
NONE
Jefferson
Current TO 1159 PM SAT
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Â
Â
Â
Boulder
Current TO 1159 PM SAT
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Douglas
Current TO 1159 PM SAT
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%)
NONE
Jefferson
Current TO 1159 PM SAT
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
3 years, 6 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2@udfcd.org
Time: 722 PM Sat June 5, 2021
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR DOUGLAS COUNTY ADDITIONAL MESSAGES POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING.
-
Message 1's have been issued for Douglas County and will be valid
until 10pm this evening.
-
Moderate to strong thunderstorms have developed over Douglas County
behind a gust front that originated south of the District. As this
gust front moves northward additional thunderstorms may develop and
additional Message 1's may need to be issued.
-
Strong thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall,
hail and gusty winds. Storm motions are very slow or nearly stationary
and can lead to a prolonged period of heavy rain that may lead to
excessive runoff.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Moderate to strong
thunderstorms will produce 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A nearly stationary strong thunderstorm may
result in heavy rainfall of 0.40-1.40" in 15-45 minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Douglas County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Â
Â
Â
Adams
Current TO 1000 PM SAT
0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (15%) to 0.8" (5%)
LOW
Arapahoe
Current TO 1000 PM SAT
0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (15%)
MOD
Boulder
Current TO 1000 PM SAT
0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (15%) to 0.8" (5%)
LOW
Broomfield
Current TO 1000 PM SAT
0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (15%) to 0.8" (5%)
LOW
Denver
Current TO 1000 PM SAT
0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (10%)
LOW
Douglas
Current TO 1000 PM SAT
0.1" (95%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.8" (30%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 1000 PM SAT
0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (15%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Â
Â
Â
Boulder
Current TO 1000 PM SAT
0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (15%) to 0.8" (5%)
LOW
Douglas
Current TO 1000 PM SAT
0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (80%) to 0.8" (40%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 1000 PM SAT
0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (20%)
MOD
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
3 years, 6 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2@udfcd.org
Time: 844 AM Sat June 5, 2021
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
HOT WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE
FOOTHILLS
-
A summer-like day over the District with temperatures warming to
well above normal in the upper 80's to lower 90's over the plains with
70's and lower 80's in the Front Range foothills. Normal high for
Denver today is 80 degrees. Skies will be sunny this morning and begin
to cloud up as thunderstorms develop over the higher terrain by early
afternoon.
-
Weak steering winds aloft from N to S will keep the majority of the
thunderstorm activity over the higher terrain today. Rain cooled
outflow from the initial foothill storms may push eastward onto the
I-25 corridor and generate additional thunderstorm development by mid
afternoon. The storms on the plains will be isolated while the
coverage over the foothills is more scattered. Best chances for
thunderstorm activity will be from 2-9pm foothills and from 4-9pm over
the plains.
-
Surface moisture is limited resulting in most storms that develop
today producing light to brief moderate rainfall and gusty winds. An
outflow induced thunderstorm that remains nearly stationary could
become strong and may be capable of brief heavy rainfall and hail.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical weak to moderate
thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.15". A stronger thunderstorm
will have the potential to produce 0.15-0.40" of rain in 10-30
minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A nearly stationary strong thunderstorm may
result in heavy rainfall of 0.40-1.20" in 15-45 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: An uptick in thunderstorm activity is expected on Sunday
over the District with temperatures continuing to run above normal in
the upper 80's to around 90 over the plains. Afternoon thunderstorms
will generally produce light to moderate rain and gusty winds much
like today but a stronger storm will be capable of producing brief
heavy rainfall.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Â
Â
Â
Adams
400 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%)
NONE
Arapahoe
400 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%)
NONE
Boulder
400 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%)
NONE
Broomfield
400 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%)
NONE
Denver
400 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%)
NONE
Douglas
300 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (15%)
NONE
Jefferson
300 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Â
Â
Â
Boulder
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (95%) to 0.2" (70%) to 0.4" (20%)
LOW
Douglas
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (95%) to 0.2" (70%) to 0.4" (20%)
LOW
Jefferson
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (95%) to 0.2" (70%) to 0.4" (20%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
3 years, 6 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2@udfcd.org
Time: 757 AM Fri June 4, 2021
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
DRY WITH THE FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR?
-
Conditions will be dry over the District today as high pressure
aloft dominates the weather pattern. Temperatures will warm into the
upper 80s to lower 90s over the plains with 70's and 80's in the Front
Range foothills.
-
If we reach 90 it will be the first 90 degree day of the season.
Normal high for Denver today is 79 degrees. June 10th is the average
date for the first 90 degree day of the season so we are a little
early if we reach 90 today. Skies will be sunny to mostly sunny with
light and variable winds making for pleasant outdoor conditions.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation today and
tonight.
A LOOK AHEAD: If DIA does not reach 90 degrees today it most certainly
will tomorrow as highs are projected to reach the lower 90's most
areas. A weak upper level disturbance will move into the District in
the afternoon and result in widely scattered afternoon and early
evening thunderstorms. The storms that develop Saturday will produce
light to briefly moderate rain and gusty winds.
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
3 years, 6 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2@udfcd.org
Time: 853 AM Thu June 3, 2021
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
SUNNY, WARMER AND DRY TODAY
-
A high-pressure ridge is forming over the region and will remain in
place over the next couple of days. This ridge will lead to dry
condition across the District throughout the day today.
-
High temperatures will reach the low to mid 80's on the plains with
mid to upper 70's along the foothills under mostly sunny skies.
-
Overnight will be mild as temperatures drop into the low to mid 50's
with clear skies.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected
today or this evening.
A LOOK AHEAD: Temperatures only increase into the mid to upper 80's
tomorrow as high-pressure builds over the region with continued dry
conditions. Flat out hot Saturday as temperatures hit 90 degrees for
the first time this year! A slight chance Saturday afternoon and
evening for scattered rain showers/thunderstorms, although the biggest
threat will be gusty winds and some lightning as any precipitation
will struggle to reach the ground.
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
3 years, 6 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2@udfcd.org
Time: 905 AM Wed June 2, 2021
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
WARM AND SUNNY WITH A FEW ISOLATED FOOTHILLS RAIN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
-
High-pressure will start to build today leading to generally dry
conditions with a very slight chance for some isolated rain
showers/thunderstorms along the foothills. High temperatures this
afternoon will reach the mid to upper 70's on the plains with low 70's
along the foothills.
-
A few isolated rain showers/thunderstorms will initiate along the
Continental Divide around midday, with a few of those storms moving
eastward and onto the foothills this afternoon. N/NW winds aloft
should help limit any storms from moving onto the plains as most
storms will keep anchored to the higher terrain. Best chance for
storms will be from 1-5pm with conditions drying out into the evening
as skies clear into the overnight.
-
Overnight will be mild, with temperatures dropping into the low
50's.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical foothill rain showers
will produce a trace-0.1" in 10-30 minutes. A weak thunderstorm will
produce 0.1-0.2" in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: An anchored foothill rain shower or moderate
thunderstorm could produce 0.2-0.5" in 45-60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: High-pressure will hold through the rest of the week
with generally dry conditions although a few high-based storms with
minimal precipitation cannot be completely ruled out. High
temperatures will only increase through the weekend with 80's expected
Thursday/Friday with highs around 90 degrees for Saturday. Saturday
will also bring a chance for afternoon rain showers/thunderstorms
although the threat for heavy rainfall looks minimal at this time.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Â
Â
Â
Adams
200 PM TO 600 PM
Trace (5%) to 0.1" (0%)
NONE
Arapahoe
200 PM TO 600 PM
Trace (5%) to 0.1" (0%)
NONE
Boulder
200 PM TO 600 PM
Trace (5%) to 0.1" (0%)
NONE
Broomfield
200 PM TO 600 PM
Trace (5%) to 0.1" (0%)
NONE
Denver
200 PM TO 600 PM
Trace (5%) to 0.1" (0%)
NONE
Douglas
200 PM TO 600 PM
Trace (5%) to 0.1" (0%)
NONE
Jefferson
200 PM TO 600 PM
Trace (5%) to 0.1" (0%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Â
Â
Â
Boulder
100 PM TO 500 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Douglas
100 PM TO 500 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Jefferson
100 PM TO 500 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
3 years, 6 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2@udfcd.org
Time: 856 AM Tue June 1, 2021
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
WARM TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING RAIN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
-
NW flow aloft will dominate over the region today as temperatures
remain slightly below average with highs in the upper 60's to low 70's
this afternoon.
-
A weak disturbance moves in from the NW this afternoon, which will
bring increased cloud cover along with a chance for scattered rain
showers/isolated thunderstorms. Storm motions will be between
10-20mph, which will limit point rainfall amounts. Typical rain
showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.1" of rain in
10-30 minutes, however a slower moving thunderstorm, or training of
thunderstorms, especially along the foothills, could bring isolated
higher amounts. Best chance for rain showers/isolated thunderstorms
will be from 1-7pm, with skies clearing into the evening.
-
Overnight lows will drop into the upper 40's to low 50's on the
plains with low to mid 40's along the foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and weak
thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.1" of rain. A moderate
thunderstorm over the higher terrain may result in 0.1-0.3" in 10-30
minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving moderate thunderstorm, or
training of thunderstorms has the potential to produce 0.6-1.0" in
30-60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: High-pressure start to build this evening and into
tomorrow bringing mild and dry conditions through the rest of the
week. Temperatures will also begin to increase tomorrow with highs
returning to average in the mid 70's to mid 80's through Friday.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Â
Â
Â
Adams
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Arapahoe
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Boulder
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Broomfield
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Denver
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Douglas
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Jefferson
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Â
Â
Â
Boulder
100 PM TO 600 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (20%)
NONE
Douglas
100 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (20%)
NONE
Jefferson
100 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (20%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
3 years, 6 months