July 2021 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 808 AM Tue July 27, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HOT AND DRY WITH CONTINUED HAZE - Temperatures will tack on another degree or two today as high pressure continues to strengthen aloft. Highs this afternoon will top out in the low to mid 90's over the plains with 80's in the Front Range foothills. The haze continues but does not seem as bad this morning compared to previous days. - A warm layer of air aloft will eliminate the chances for any thunderstorm activity today over the District with dry conditions area wide. There will be a few fair weather clouds that develop this afternoon over the mountains and foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation expected today or tonight. A LOOK AHEAD: Another dry day expected on Wednesday over the plains with possibly a higher elevation thunderstorm in the afternoon. Temperatures will continue to warm with highs in the mid to upper 90's with isolated areas possibly touching 100 degrees briefly. Thunderstorm chances return to the District on Thursday and Friday but coverage is expected to be isolated and storms relatively weak. Much cooler Saturday behind a cold front with highs in the 80's over the plains. Moisture will increase and thunderstorms will be very capable of producing heavy rainfall Saturday afternoon/evening. Threat for heavy rainfall continues Sunday and begins to decrease Monday. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 946 AM Mon July 26, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- A DRY DAY EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL - Ridge of high pressure will strengthen today pushing high temperatures into the low and mid 90's over the plains with 70's and 80's in the Front Range foothills. Normal high for Denver today is 90 degrees. - Warmer and drier air aloft is expected to keep any thunderstorms from developing over the District today, but... Gust front activity from storms that develop outside the District this afternoon may push back into the District and possibly initiate an isolated thunderstorm this evening. Should a gust front or outflow boundary push into the District this afternoon the HPO will be updated to include chances for precipitation. - Upper level steering winds from N to S this morning and more NE to SW this afternoon will also help to keep the District on the dry side today as any higher terrain storms will be pushed away from the District. Due to the warmer air aloft thunderstorm initiation on the plains is not anticipated. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation expected today or tonight. A LOOK AHEAD: Another dry day likely on Tuesday with temperatures tacking on another degree or two. Wednesday is trending dry at this time with temperatures peaking in the mid to upper 90's over the plains. Slight chances for thunderstorms return on Wednesday and Thursday, mainly over the higher terrain. Friday thunderstorm chances increase further and the upcoming weekend looks like there will be thunderstorm activity with the potential to produce heavy rainfall. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 824 PM Sun July 25, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9:00 PM - Message 1's will be allowed to expire at 9:00pm as the threat for heavy rainfall has come to an end. - Rapidly developing storms initiated along the foothills this evening resulting in isolated heavy rainfall with a current gauge report in downtown Boulder at 1.97" total rainfall. As quick as these storms developed, they have dissipated towards the S/SW with no additional rainfall in the District expected for the rest of the evening. - Skies will gradually clear and the overnight will be mild as lows drop into the mid to upper 60's on the plains with upper 50's to low 60's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No additional meaningful rainfall is expected for the rest of the evening and through the overnight. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Lakewood 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM DIA 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 628 PM Sun July 25, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for the entire District and will remain valid until 9pm this evening. - A gust front from the east has moved into the District this evening resulting in rapid storm development currently along the foothills. This storm development will continue over the next few hours and with very little storm movement, the chance for heavy rainfall has increased this evening. Additional storms could also develop along outflow boundaries for all areas of the District. - Slow to nearly stationary storm motions will allow for extended periods of heavy rain under stronger storms that are able to develop this afternoon/evening which may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate thunderstorms will produce 0.2-0.6" in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms have the potential to produce 0.4-1.2" of heavy rain in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A nearly stationary strong thunderstorm may result in up to 2.4" in 60- 90 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM DIA 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 900 PM SUN 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (10%) to 1.2" (5%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 900 PM SUN 0.2" (50%) to 0.6" (25%) to 1.2" (10%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 900 PM SUN 0.2" (75%) to 0.6" (40%) to 1.2" (20%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 900 PM SUN 0.2" (75%) to 0.6" (40%) to 1.2" (20%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 900 PM SUN 0.2" (50%) to 0.6" (25%) to 1.2" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM SUN 0.2" (75%) to 0.6" (40%) to 1.2" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 PM SUN 0.2" (75%) to 0.6" (40%) to 1.2" (20%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 900 PM SUN 0.2" (80%) to 0.6" (50%) to 1.2" (30%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM SUN 0.2" (80%) to 0.6" (50%) to 1.2" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 PM SUN 0.2" (80%) to 0.6" (50%) to 1.2" (30%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 854 AM Sun July 25, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY - The haze has become a daily norm and will continue today with seasonal temperatures. Highs this afternoon over the plains will reach either side of 90 degrees with 70's and lower 80's in the Front Range foothills. Normal high for Denver today is 90 degrees. - Moisture has decreased from this time yesterday but enough lingers to produce widely scattered rain showers and weak to moderate thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The initiation for showers and thunderstorms looks to be delayed over the plains but could go late into the evening. Showers and thunderstorms will develop over the foothills between 1-3pm with chances increasing over the plains between 3-6pm. Best chances for shower and thunderstorm activity will continue through 10pm with lingering showers possible until about midnight. - Thunderstorms are expected to be weak to moderate in intensity but if a strong thunderstorm is able to develop it will be capable of producing brief heavy rainfall. Relatively slow storm motions from NW to SE this afternoon and the slight threat for an isolated stronger storm will keep a low Message potential in the cards today. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers will produce a trace to 0.2" in 30 minutes or less. Weak to moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce moderate rain fall of 0.2-0.6" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow moving strong thunderstorm is able to develop with the potential to produce 0.4-1.2" of heavy rain in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Thunderstorm activity will favor the higher terrain on Monday with the plains looking to experience minimal if any storm activity. Temperatures will tack on 2-3 degrees all areas. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 400 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW Arapahoe 400 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (90%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.6" (25%) LOW Broomfield 400 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW Denver 400 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (90%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.6" (25%) LOW Boulder 300 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW Douglas 300 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.6" (25%) LOW Jefferson 300 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (90%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.6" (25%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (90%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (90%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (90%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 837 AM Sat July 24, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- COOL TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING - A cold front will result in cooler high temperatures today with upper 70's to low 80's across the plains with low to mid 70's along the foothills. Currently a few scattered weak to moderate showers along the Palmer Divide and into southern portions of the District. These showers will remain in place through most of the morning and into the afternoon which should also help limit temperatures with increased cloud cover throughout the day. - However, with adequate surface moisture and possibly a few breaks in the clouds, could raise temperatures enough to get a stronger storm to develop along the Palmer Divide which in turn could produce a gust front which would have the potential to trigger storms northward and into the District. The best chance for storms to develop today will be between noon and 6pm with a few scattered rain showers possible through sunset and into the early evening before skies gradually clear out after midnight. - Overnight will be mild with lows dropping into the mid to upper 60's for the plains with upper 50's to low 60's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate thunderstorms will produce TR-0.2" in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms have the potential to produce 0.2-0.8" of heavy rain in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A nearly stationary strong thunderstorm may result in up to 1.6" in 60 minutes or less. A LOOK AHEAD: Sunday will already begin a decent warm up as high temperatures jump back into the 90's resulting in a slightly better chance for afternoon rain showers/isolated thunderstorms. With excess moisture in place at the surface and in the mid to upper-level another low chance for heavy rain will persist into Sunday. Heat and high-pressure returns Monday and through the rest of next week keeping high temperatures in the 90's with only a slight chance for afternoon/evening rain showers/isolated thunderstorms. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 1200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.8" (5%) LOW Arapahoe 1200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.8" (5%) LOW Boulder 1200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.8" (5%) LOW Broomfield 1200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.8" (5%) LOW Denver 1200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.8" (5%) LOW Douglas 1200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD Jefferson 1200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.8" (5%) LOW Douglas 1200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD Jefferson 1200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1149 PM Fri July 23, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT/ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING - Message 1's will be allowed to expire at midnight as the threat for heavy rainfall has come to an end. - Additional isolated to widely scattered rain showers will continue likely overnight and may linger into Saturday morning. Wetting rains can be expected under the more persistent showers and will produce minor runoff. Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall is no longer expected. - Cooler Saturday with highs in the 80's over the plains. Isolated to widely scattered rain showers early Saturday morning give way to a chance for thunderstorms before noon. Strong thunderstorms if they develop will be capable of producing heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers will produce rainfall rates of a trace to 0.2" in 30-60 minutes. Persistent rain showers will have the potential to produce 0.2-0.4" in 30-60 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A weak to moderate thunderstorm is able to develop with the potential to produce brief heavy rainfall of 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 60-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 1000 AM SAT Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 1000 AM SAT Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Boulder Current TO 1000 AM SAT Trace (100%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 1000 AM SAT Trace (90%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Denver Current TO 1000 AM SAT Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1000 AM SAT Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1000 AM SAT Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1000 AM SAT Trace (100%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1000 AM SAT Trace (100%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1000 AM SAT Trace (100%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 952 PM Fri July 23, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL MIDNIGHT - Message 1's will will be extended until midnight as rain showers and weak to possibly moderate thunderstorms continue possible over the next couple hours. - Rain showers and weak thunderstorms are ongoing, mainly W of Hwy 76 at this time. Rain showers and weak thunderstorms are expected to continue into the evening with chances for thunderstorms diminishing after midnight. - With a moist airmass in place even weak to moderate thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff. Beyond midnight additional rain showers are expected to continue into Saturday morning. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers will produce 0.1-0.3" in 30-60 minutes. Weak to moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm develops with the potential to produce 0.4-1.2" of heavy rain in 10-30 minutes and up to 1.8" in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 1159 PM FRI 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM FRI 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1159 PM FRI 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM FRI 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1159 PM FRI 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (15%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM FRI 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM FRI 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1159 PM FRI 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM FRI 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM FRI 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 614 PM Fri July 23, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S CONTINUE VALID FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT - Message 1's will continue valid over the District although the threat for thunderstorms is diminishing. - A gust front/pseudo cold front that moved through the District earlier from N to S did not initiate any meaningful storm activity as it moved through. Behind this feature temperatures have cooled into the upper 70's to mid 80's lowering the threat for strong thunderstorms. - There will still be a chance for additional rain showers and and possibly weak to moderate thunderstorms as the evening progresses. Even a moderate thunderstorm will be capable of producing brief heavy rainfall. Overnight, isolated to widely scattered rain showers continue possible into Saturday morning. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers will produce a trace to 0.2". Weak to moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm develops with the potential to produce 0.5-1.5" of heavy rain in 10-30 minutes and up to 2.5" in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM 400 PM TO 900 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM 400 PM TO 900 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM 400 PM TO 900 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM 400 PM TO 900 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 400 PM TO 900 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM 400 PM TO 900 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 400 PM TO 900 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 400 PM TO 900 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 400 PM TO 900 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 400 PM TO 900 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 400 PM TO 900 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 400 PM TO 900 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 1000 PM FRI 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1000 PM FRI 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1000 PM FRI 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (15%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1000 PM FRI 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1000 PM FRI 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM FRI 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM FRI 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (15%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1000 PM FRI 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM FRI 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM FRI 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 215 PM Fri July 23, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for the entire District and will remain valid until 10pm this evening. - A gust front is on the approach from storms that developed over Weld County earlier today and will likely be a trigger for thunderstorms over the coming hours as it moves through the District from N to S. Slow to nearly stationary storm motions will allow for extended periods of heavy rain under stronger storms that are able to develop this afternoon/evening which may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. - QPF estimates have increased from this morning as moisture levels are expected to rise into the later afternoon/evening over the District. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate thunderstorms will produce 0.2-0.6" in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms have the potential to produce 0.6-1.8" of heavy rain in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A nearly stationary strong thunderstorm may result in up to 3.2" in 60-90 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 330 PM TO 900 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 400 PM TO 900 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 400 PM TO 900 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 400 PM TO 900 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 400 PM TO 900 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM 400 PM TO 900 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 400 PM TO 900 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM 400 PM TO 900 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM 400 PM TO 900 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM 400 PM TO 900 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM 400 PM TO 900 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 300 PM TO 1000 PM 0.2" (75%) to 0.6" (40%) to 1.8" (20%) ISSUED Arapahoe 300 PM TO 1000 PM 0.2" (75%) to 0.6" (40%) to 1.8" (20%) ISSUED Boulder 300 PM TO 1000 PM 0.2" (80%) to 0.6" (50%) to 1.8" (20%) ISSUED Broomfield 300 PM TO 1000 PM 0.2" (80%) to 0.6" (50%) to 1.8" (20%) ISSUED Denver 300 PM TO 1000 PM 0.2" (75%) to 0.6" (40%) to 1.8" (20%) ISSUED Douglas 300 PM TO 1000 PM 0.2" (80%) to 0.6" (50%) to 1.8" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson 300 PM TO 1000 PM 0.2" (80%) to 0.6" (50%) to 1.8" (20%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 300 PM TO 1000 PM 0.2" (90%) to 0.6" (60%) to 1.8" (30%) ISSUED Douglas 300 PM TO 1000 PM 0.2" (90%) to 0.6" (60%) to 1.8" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson 300 PM TO 1000 PM 0.2" (90%) to 0.6" (60%) to 1.8" (30%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 5 months

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