July 2021 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 828 AM Sat July 3, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARM AND SUNNY WITH A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS - Warmer and sunny today as high temperatures reach the upper 80's to low 90's across the plains this afternoon with low to mid 80's along the foothills. A chance for scattered afternoon rain showers/isolated thunderstorms with a slight chance for lingering rain showers into the evening. - Storm motions have increased today as a stronger west/northwesterly upper-level component is in place today. This west/northwesterly air will be a bit drier than previous days resulting in a less chance for heavy rain, both moisture wise and storm motion wise as storms will be moving fairly brisk from west to east between 10-15mph. This movement speed will also help limit point rainfall amounts this afternoon and evening under storms that do develop. - Storms will initiate over the higher terrain around midday. Best chance for storms in the District will be from 1-7pm with peak storm chances between 3-6pm. After 7pm, most if not all storm activity will be well east of the District, where a slight chance for severe weather is possible. Skies gradually clear into the evening with mild and dry conditions overnight and into 4th of July. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical weak rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce a trace-0.1" in 10-30 minutes. A moderate rain shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.1-0.3" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm will have the potential to produce 0.3-0.8" in 45-75 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Similar conditions Sunday as high temperatures remain in the upper 80's to low 90's for the plains with low to mid 80's for the foothills. A slight chance Sunday afternoon for scattered rain showers/isolated thunderstorms, however, at this time skies should begin to clear before sunset, leading to mild and dry conditions for any evening 4th of July celebrations. A slight uptick in moisture Monday will lead to a better chance for rain/thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 700 PM 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW Arapahoe 200 PM TO 700 PM 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 700 PM 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW Broomfield 200 PM TO 700 PM 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW Denver 200 PM TO 700 PM 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 700 PM 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 700 PM 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 200 PM TO 700 PM 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (5%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 700 PM 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (5%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 700 PM 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (5%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 835 PM Fri July 2, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9PM - Message 1's will be allowed to expire at 9:00pm as the threat for heavy rainfall has ended for the day. - Much of the District experienced minimal thunderstorm activity today with the majority of the activity limited to areas E of I-25 and along/N of I-70 over the NE quadrant of the District where between 1-2" of rain likely occurred. This storm has recently diminished and may still produce a few lingering light showers along the Arapahoe/Adams County line over the next 30 minutes. - Generally dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the evening and overnight period. The threat for afternoon thunderstorms with the potential to produce heavy rainfall continues on Saturday. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No meaningful precipitation expected for the remainder of the evening and overnight period. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM DIA 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 610 PM Fri July 2, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S CONTINUE VALID FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT - Message 1's will continue valid over the entire District through 9:00pm this evening. - Moderate to strong thunderstorms are currently just to the NW and SW of the District currently. Thunderstorms should they develop over the next few hours will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall as ample surface moisture in is place with dew points currently in the 57-61 range. - Surface temperatures have peaked and the strength of potential storms is now a little lower than had storms developed during hours of maximum heating. Upper level steering winds are from NW to SE at around 10mph. Best chances for thunderstorm activity is through 8:30pm. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.4" of rain in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall rates of 0.4-1.2" in 10-30 minutes WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of thunderstorm cells or a large slow moving strong thunderstorm may result in very heavy rainfall of up to 2.4" in 45-75 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM DIA 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (75%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.2" (10%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (75%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.2" (10%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (100%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.2" (20%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (85%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (15%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (75%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.2" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (100%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.2" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (95%) to 0.4" (55%) to 1.2" (15%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (100%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.2" (20%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (100%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.2" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (100%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.2" (20%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1222 PM Fri July 2, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for the entire District and will be valid until 9pm this evening. Storm have begun to develop along the foothills at this time and will continue to build before moving onto the plains this afternoon. - Current dew points are at an elevated mid to upper 50's with low 60's just east of the District. This suggests the chance for heavy rainfall, even out of weak to moderate storms. Storm motions today will also be fairly slow to nearly stationary at times from west to east. This will increase the chance for isolated heavy rain with the potential for flash flooding. Roadways/smaller creeks and streams will be most prone to excessive runoff/flooding today. - Best chance for storms in the District will be between 1-9pm.A few lingering showers and thunderstorms could be possible after 9pm, mainly for areas out on the eastern plains. Drier upper-level air begins to move in behind todays disturbance which will gradually clear skies through the evening. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak thunderstorms will produce 0.2-0.5" of rain in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall rates of 0.5-1.5" in 10-30 minutes WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of thunderstorm cells or a large slow moving strong thunderstorm may result in very heavy rainfall of up to 3.0" in 60-90 minutes. Should rain continue for longer than 90 minutes in duration higher amounts are possible. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Lakewood 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM DIA 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 900 PM FRI 0.2" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 900 PM FRI 0.2" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 900 PM FRI 0.2" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 900 PM FRI 0.2" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 900 PM FRI 0.2" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM FRI 0.2" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 PM FRI 0.2" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 900 PM FRI 0.2" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM FRI 0.2" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 PM FRI 0.2" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 849 AM Fri July 2, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ANOTHER CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING - Not much has changed in the overall pattern over Colorado resulting in another chance for heavy rainfall this afternoon and early evening. Elevated surface moisture remains in place as dew points remain in the mid to upper 50's, with low 60's just east of the District. Once the low-level clouds have lifted, partly to mostly sunny skies will bring high temperatures into the upper 70's to low 80's. - Since we had a little fog and low-level clouds this morning, temperatures will take a little longer to peak this afternoon resulting in a later start time for storms. The first storms will initiate in the high country by midday with the best chance for foothills rain shower/thunderstorms between 1-3pm with the best chances for the plains between 3-8pm. Relatively weak steering winds from west to east between 5-10mph will result in slow moving rain showers/thunderstorms, with outflow boundaries causing nearly stationary additional storm development. This will increase the threat for heavy rainfall once again with roadways/smaller creeks and streams being prone to excessive runoff/flooding this afternoon and evening. - After 8 or 9pm the rain shower/thunderstorm activity is expected to have pushed east of the District with lingering scattered light rain showers possible into the later evening. Overnight lows will drop into the mid 50's to low 60's for the plains with low to mid 50's along the foothills. Excess surface moisture may lead to foggy conditions into Saturday morning as well. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak thunderstorms will produce 0.2-0.5" of rain in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall rates of 0.5-1.5" in 10-30 minutes WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of thunderstorm cells or a large slow moving strong thunderstorm may result in very heavy rainfall of up to 3.0" in 60-90 minutes. Should rain continue for longer than 90 minutes in duration higher amounts are possible. A LOOK AHEAD: Drier mid to upper-level air is poised to move in from from the west later this evening bringing a decrease in the heavy rain threat heading into the weekend. however, there will still be a low chance at least Saturday afternoon and early evening for rain showers/thunderstorms with the potential for heavy rainfall. Sunday will warm back into the upper 80's to low 90's with a slight chance for afternoon rain showers/isolated thunderstorms with a minimal, if any chance for heavy rainfall at this time. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.2" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) HIGH Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.2" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) HIGH Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.2" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) HIGH Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.2" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) HIGH Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.2" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) HIGH Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.2" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) HIGH Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.2" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) HIGH Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.2" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (20%) HIGH Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.2" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (20%) HIGH Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.2" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (20%) HIGH MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 822 PM Thu July 1, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 2'S HAVE BEEN RESCINDED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT - Message 2's have been rescinded for the entire District as the NWS has cancelled the Flash Flood Watch. - The threat for heavy rainfall has ended for the day. Generally dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the evening and overnight. - On Friday the threat for afternoon thunderstorms with heavy rainfall continues although the storms are expected to be less numerous. Due to all of the rainfall today over portions of the District it may not take as much rain tomorrow to result in excessive runoff and flash flooding. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No meaningful precipitation is expected for the remainder of the evening and overnight period. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 702 PM Thu July 1, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 2'S CONTINUE VALID - All Message 1 LIF's and Message 3's issued earlier have been allowed to expire and the Message 2's (NWS Flash Flood Watch) remain in effect until midnight at this time. Message 2's may be rescinded earlier than midnight as conditions are calming down over the District currently. - Strong thunderstorms with heavy rainfall impacted portions of the District earlier today with scattered light to briefly moderate rain showers currently ongoing over the District. Now that temperatures have cooled into the 60's over the plains and the atmosphere has already been churned the threat for thunderstorms with heavy rainfall is rapidly decreasing as we move forward in time. - Rain showers remain likely through about 9pm then generally dry conditions are expected to develop for the evening and overnight period. A quick 1-2" of rain was observed under the stronger thunderstorms with isolated higher amounts of over 2" in isolated areas. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers will produce a trace to 0.1" in 10-30 minutes. Weak thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.1-0.4" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Moderate to strong thunderstorms are able to re-develop with the potential to produce heavy rainfall rates of 0.6-1.8" in 10-30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Arapahoe County 2 1100 AM TO 1159 PM 1100 AM TO 900 PM DIA 2 1100 AM TO 1159 PM 1100 AM TO 900 PM Denver County 2 1100 AM TO 1159 PM 1100 AM TO 900 PM Adams County 2 1100 AM TO 1159 PM 1100 AM TO 900 PM Douglas County 2 1100 AM TO 1159 PM 1100 AM TO 900 PM Broomfield County 2 1100 AM TO 1159 PM 1100 AM TO 900 PM Jefferson County 2 1100 AM TO 1159 PM 1100 AM TO 900 PM Boulder County 2 1100 AM TO 1159 PM 1100 AM TO 900 PM the City of Aurora 2 1100 AM TO 1159 PM 1100 AM TO 900 PM Arvada 2 1100 AM TO 1159 PM 1100 AM TO 900 PM Wheat Ridge 2 1100 AM TO 1159 PM 1100 AM TO 900 PM Lakewood 2 1100 AM TO 1159 PM 1100 AM TO 900 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (90%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (10%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (90%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (10%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (90%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (10%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (90%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (10%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (90%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (90%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (90%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (10%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (90%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (90%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (90%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (10%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 927 AM Thu July 1, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 2'S ISSUED AND VALID FROM 11AM TO MIDNIGHT - Message 2's will become valid at 11:00am as thunderstorms that develop today will be very capable of producing heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. Multiple rounds of strong thunderstorms are expected through the afternoon and evening. - Thunderstorms will first develop over the foothills and Palmer Divide by 11am to noon. Thunderstorms will begin to move onto the plains between 1-2pm. Training of thunderstorm cells or large slower moving thunderstorms will be the main culprits for extended periods of heavy rainfall. Upper level steering winds are light from W/WSW to E/ENE at 10-15mph. Roadways/smaller creeks and streams will be most prone to excessive runoff/flooding today. - Prime time for strong thunderstorms over the plains is from 1-9pm. After 9 or 10pm the thunderstorm activity is expected to have pushed east of the District with lingering light rain showers possible into the evening. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak thunderstorms will produce 0.2-0.6" of rain in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall rates of 0.6-1.8" in 10-30 minutes WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of thunderstorm cells or a large slow moving strong thunderstorm may result in very heavy rainfall of up to 4.0" in 60-90 minutes. Should rain continue for longer than 90 minutes in duration higher amounts are possible. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 2 1100 AM TO 1159 PM 1100 AM TO 900 PM Jefferson County 2 1100 AM TO 1159 PM 1100 AM TO 900 PM Broomfield County 2 1100 AM TO 1159 PM 1100 AM TO 900 PM Douglas County 2 1100 AM TO 1159 PM 1100 AM TO 900 PM Adams County 2 1100 AM TO 1159 PM 1100 AM TO 900 PM Denver County 2 1100 AM TO 1159 PM 1100 AM TO 900 PM DIA 2 1100 AM TO 1159 PM 1100 AM TO 900 PM Arapahoe County 2 1100 AM TO 1159 PM 1100 AM TO 900 PM the City of Aurora 2 1100 AM TO 1159 PM 1100 AM TO 900 PM Arvada 2 1100 AM TO 1159 PM 1100 AM TO 900 PM Wheat Ridge 2 1100 AM TO 1159 PM 1100 AM TO 900 PM Lakewood 2 1100 AM TO 1159 PM 1100 AM TO 900 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 1200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.3" (95%) to 0.9" (60%) to 1.8" (30%) ISSUED Arapahoe 1200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.3" (95%) to 0.9" (60%) to 1.8" (30%) ISSUED Boulder 1200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.3" (95%) to 0.9" (60%) to 1.8" (30%) ISSUED Broomfield 1200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.3" (95%) to 0.9" (60%) to 1.8" (30%) ISSUED Denver 1200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.3" (95%) to 0.9" (60%) to 1.8" (30%) ISSUED Douglas 1200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.3" (95%) to 0.9" (60%) to 1.8" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson 1200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.3" (95%) to 0.9" (60%) to 1.8" (30%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1100 AM TO 1159 PM 0.3" (95%) to 0.9" (60%) to 1.8" (30%) ISSUED Douglas 1100 AM TO 1159 PM 0.3" (95%) to 0.9" (60%) to 1.8" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson 1100 AM TO 1159 PM 0.3" (95%) to 0.9" (60%) to 1.8" (30%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 910 PM Wed June 30, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10:00 PM - Message 1's will be allowed to expire at 10:00pm as the threat for heavy rainfall has ended for the day. - A weak disturbance upstream is expected to produce additional widely scattered light rain showers through about midnight, likely favoring areas W of I-25 and over the foothills. Beyond midnight there could be a few lingering, isolated showers that persist into the overnight. Showers will move from W to E between 5-10mph. Although unlikely, if a weak thunderstorm were to develop it would be capable of producing brief moderate to heavy rainfall. - Overnight lows will drop into the mid to upper 50's with a few lingering rain showers likely out on the eastern plains through daybreak Thursday. Storm chances increase tomorrow with another good chance for heavy rainfall as an abundance of moisture remains in place along with slow to nearly stationary storm movements. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rainfall rates from light rain showers will generally range from a trace to 0.2" in 30-60 minutes with moderate rain showers producing rainfall rates of 0.2-0.5" in 30-60 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Weak to moderate thunderstorms are able to develop with the potential to produce brief heavy rainfall of 0.3-0.9" in 10-30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 600 AM THU Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 600 AM THU Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE Boulder Current TO 600 AM THU Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 600 AM THU Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE Denver Current TO 600 AM THU Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE Douglas Current TO 600 AM THU Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 600 AM THU Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 600 AM THU Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas Current TO 600 AM THU Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 600 AM THU Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 752 PM Wed June 30, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for the entire District effective until 10pm this evening. - A few storms initiated off a relatively weak gust front earlier this evening, which have effectively sent additional gust fronts into the District at this time. Currently low to mid 50s dew points across the District, along with the gust front trigger, provided the ingredients needed to get a line of storms to produce from DIA to Aurora at this time. These cells will continue to build over the next hour or so resulting in a chance for heavy rainfall. - Very little to slow moving storm motions will also increase the chance for longer lasting moderate to heavy rainfall over the next couple of hours. Best chance for storms will be until 9pm as additional outflow boundaries will be possible. However, storm intensities should decrease after sunset. Although with adequate moisture in place, typical rain showers could produce moderate to heavy rainfall. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.3-0.9" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A large or slower moving thunderstorm may result in up to 1.6" of rain in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.9" (5%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.9" (5%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.9" (5%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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hpo-ims July 2021