July 2021 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 839 AM Sun July 18, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HOT AND GENERALLY DRY PLAINS WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN - Slight warming aloft and subtle drying will decrease the thunderstorm chances today over the District. Highs this afternoon will top out in the low to mid 90's over the plains with 80's in the Front Range foothills. - There will still be a chance for isolated afternoon thunderstorms favoring the foothills and Palmer Divide with possibly an isolated thunderstorm along the I-25 corridor mid to late afternoon. The "fly in the ointment" today is gust front activity from foothill or Palmer Divide storms... Surface moisture remains modest and the subtle drying aloft is not enough to completely eliminate the threat of heavy rain should a strong storm develop over the plains. - The most likely outcome today is isolated thunderstorm overage over the higher terrain with NW to SE steering winds keeping much if not all of the activity limited to the foothills and Palmer Divide regions. Although unlikely, if a storm were to initiate over the plains it would be later in the afternoon between 4-9pm. Plains storms should they develop will tend to be short lived and nearly stationary due to likely gust front initiation but capable of producing brief moderate to heavy rain. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" of rain. Although not expected, moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.2-0.6" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stationary strong thunderstorm will have the potential to produce up to 1.2" of rain in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Generally dry conditions expected over on Monday with any storm activity limited to the higher terrain. Tuesday chances for thunderstorms return to the District and look to peak on Wednesday with lesser chances Thursday and Friday. Monday/Tuesday thunderstorms will have the potential to produce brief heavy rainfall. Temperatures through the week will continue to run in the 90's over the plains. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 400 PM TO 900 PM Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.6" (5%) LOW Arapahoe 400 PM TO 900 PM Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.6" (5%) LOW Broomfield 400 PM TO 900 PM Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.6" (5%) LOW Denver 400 PM TO 900 PM Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.6" (5%) LOW Boulder 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (5%) LOW Douglas 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (5%) LOW Jefferson 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (5%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 3 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 814 PM Sat July 17, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE - Message 1's will be allowed to expire at 9:30pm for Adams, Arapahoe, Denver, Douglas and Jefferson Counties as the threat for heavy rainfall has ended for the day. - Strongest thunderstorms today remained over eastern areas of the District over rural Adams County. Thunderstorm activity has since diminished over the District and generally dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the evening and overnight period. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No meaningful precipitation is expected. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Jefferson County 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 830 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 830 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 830 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 830 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 830 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 830 PM DIA 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 830 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 830 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 830 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 830 PM MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 3 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 601 PM Sat July 17, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for Adams, Arapahoe, Denver, Douglas and Jefferson Counties until 9:30pm this evening. - Thunderstorms are developing over central and eastern portions of the District currently and may be energized by a gust front approaching form the north. Currently storms are weak to moderate but may be intensified as the gust front from the N moves through over the coming hours. - Thunderstorms will be nearly stationary or slow moving to the S at around 10mph. Strong thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.3" in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stationary strong thunderstorm may result in up to 1.5" of rain in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Jefferson County 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 830 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 830 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 830 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 830 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 830 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 830 PM DIA 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 830 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 830 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 830 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 830 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 930 PM SAT 0.1" (85%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 930 PM SAT 0.1" (85%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 930 PM SAT 0.1" (65%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW Broomfield Current TO 930 PM SAT 0.1" (65%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW Denver Current TO 930 PM SAT 0.1" (85%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 930 PM SAT 0.1" (85%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 930 PM SAT 0.1" (85%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 930 PM SAT 0.1" (65%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW Douglas Current TO 930 PM SAT 0.1" (85%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 930 PM SAT 0.1" (85%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 3 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 831 AM Sat July 17, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HOT WITH ANOTHER CHACE FOR ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE - Not much has changed in the overall pattern over the Colorado region today with mostly sunny skies to start the morning which will help temperatures increase into the upper 80's to mid 90's across the plains this afternoon with low to mid 80's along the foothills. Similar conditions as yesterday with a chance for afternoon rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Currently dew points are in the low to mid 50's and should slowly mix out through the morning, however, if dew points stay elevated into the afternoon there will be a better chance for rain showers and thunderstorms along the I-25 corridor this afternoon with the potential for isolated heavy rainfall favoring areas east of I-25 at this time. - Storms today will initiate along the higher terrain in the foothills and along the Palmer Divide around midday and will progress from W to E between 10-15mph. Best chance for isolated rain showers/thunderstorms in the District will be this afternoon between 2-4pm with storms increasing in intensity as they move out onto the eastern plains and away from the District. A slight chance for an outflow boundary that moves westerly from strong storms out on the eastern plains which will have the potential to trigger additional storms within the District between 4-8pm. These additional storms could have the potential for brief moderate to heavy rainfall as any storm development along outflow boundaries will move erratically if not remain stationary for an extended period increasing chances for isolated heavy rainfall. Any storm development should quickly decrease around sunset with mild and dry conditions through the rest of the evening. - Skies will gradually clear completely through the rest of the evening with overnight lows dropping into the low to mid 60's on the plains with mid to upper 50's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce a trace-0.2" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong thunderstorms will produce 0.2-0.4" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate to strong stationary thunderstorm formed along an outflow boundary has the potential to produce 1.0" in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: The high-pressure ridge will return over the next several days resulting in high temperatures in the low to mid 90's across the plains through next week. A very slight chance each afternoon and early evening for rain showers/isolated thunderstorms, however, at this time, little to no threat for heavy rainfall is expected through the week as surface moisture starts to decrease along with less mid to upper-level moisture as well. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (20%) LOW Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (20%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (15%) LOW Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (15%) LOW Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (15%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (20%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (15%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 3 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 841 AM Fri July 16, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- A BIT WARMER WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE - Mostly sunny skies once again this morning will help temperatures increase into the upper 80's to low 90's across the plains this afternoon with low to mid 80's along the foothills. Similar conditions as yesterday with a chance for afternoon rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Currently dew points are in the upper 40's to around 50 and should continue to mix out through the morning, however, if dew points stay elevated into the afternoon there will be a better chance for rain showers and thunderstorms along the I-25 corridor this afternoon with the potential for isolated heavy rainfall favoring areas east of I-25 at this time. - The most likely outcome today will be a weak round of rain showers/isolated thunderstorms this afternoon between 2-4pm with storms increasing in intensity as they move out onto the eastern plains and away from the District. An outflow boundary that moves westerly from strong storms out on the eastern plains will have the potential to trigger additional storms within the District in the later afternoon and early evening which could have the potential for brief moderate to heavy rainfall. Any storm development should quickly decrease around sunset with mild and dry conditions into the rest of the evening. - Skies will gradually clear completely through the rest of the evening with overnight lows dropping into the low to mid 60's on the plains with mid to upper 50's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce a trace-0.2" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong thunderstorms will produce 0.2-0.4" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate to strong stationary thunderstorm formed along an outflow boundary has the potential to produce 1.2" in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Not much will change with the overall pattern through the weekend with high temperatures remaining in the upper 80's to low 90's Saturday with a slightly better chance for afternoon rain showers/isolated thunderstorms. Similar conditions Sunday with high temps reaching the upper 80's to low 90's once again with another chance for afternoon rain showers/isolated thunderstorms. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (20%) to 1.2" (10%) LOW Arapahoe 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (20%) to 1.2" (10%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (20%) to 1.2" (5%) LOW Broomfield 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (20%) to 1.2" (5%) LOW Denver 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (20%) to 1.2" (10%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (20%) to 1.2" (5%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (20%) to 1.2" (5%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (20%) to 1.2" (5%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (20%) to 1.2" (5%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (20%) to 1.2" (5%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 3 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 825 AM Thu July 15, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARMER AND SUNNY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS - A bit warmer today as we have mostly sunny skies this morning as afternoon highs reach the mid to upper 80's on the plains with mid to upper 70's along the foothills. A slight chance this afternoon for a few scattered rain showers/isolated thunderstorms. Dew points currently in the upper 40's to low 50's and will slowly decrease into the afternoon into the mid to upper 40's as surface moisture retreats towards the east. - Storms today will initiate in the higher terrain around midday with the best chance for storms in the District between 2-8pm. Storm motions will be relatively brisk this afternoon from the NW to SE between 10-20mph helping limit point rainfall amounts. Generally storms will not produce heavy rainfall today, however a slower moving storm that forms along an outflow boundary cannot be completely ruled out this afternoon and early evening which could potentially lead to isolated brief heavy rainfall resulting in a low threat for heavy rainfall today. - By 8pm, most if not all storm activity should move eastward and further onto the plains and out of the District. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 50's to low 60's for the plains with low to mid 50's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce a trace-0.2" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong thunderstorms will produce 0.2-0.4" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate to strong stationary thunderstorms or training of thunderstorms cells has the potential to produce 1.2" in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Similar conditions remain in place through the weekend with temperatures in the upper 80's to low 90's Friday along with another chance for afternoon rain showers/isolated thunderstorms. High temperatures increase into the low to mid 90's for the plains Saturday and Sunday along with a continued chance for rain showers/isolated thunderstorms, however the threat for heavy rainfall remain minimal at this time. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (15%) to 1.2" (5%) LOW Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (15%) to 1.2" (5%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (15%) to 1.2" (5%) LOW Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (15%) to 1.2" (5%) LOW Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (15%) to 1.2" (5%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (15%) to 1.2" (5%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (15%) to 1.2" (5%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (15%) to 1.2" (5%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (15%) to 1.2" (5%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (15%) to 1.2" (5%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 3 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 814 PM Wed July 14, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE - Message 1's will be allowed to expire at 10:00pm as the threat for heavy rainfall has ended for the day. - Cooler temperatures today resulted in thunderstorms this afternoon generally remaining on the weak to moderate side producing small pockets of heavy rainfall. - Additional light rain shower activity is expected to move through the District from NW to SE this evening with dry conditions by midnight or before. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers will produce TR-0.1" of rain. Weak thunderstorms should they develop will have the potential to produce 0.1-0.4" in 10-30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 330 PM TO 930 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 330 PM TO 930 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 330 PM TO 930 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 330 PM TO 930 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 330 PM TO 930 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 330 PM TO 930 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM 330 PM TO 930 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 330 PM TO 930 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM 330 PM TO 930 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM 330 PM TO 930 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM 330 PM TO 930 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM 330 PM TO 930 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 1159 PM WED Trace (80%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.4" (10%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM WED Trace (80%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.4" (10%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1159 PM WED Trace (80%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.4" (10%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM WED Trace (80%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.4" (10%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1159 PM WED Trace (80%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.4" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM WED Trace (80%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.4" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM WED Trace (80%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.4" (10%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1159 PM WED Trace (80%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.4" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM WED Trace (80%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.4" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM WED Trace (80%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.4" (10%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 3 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 237 PM Wed July 14, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for the entire District and will be valid until 10:00pm this evening. - Temperatures have remained on the cool side today over the District hindering thunderstorm development up to this point but an approaching upper level disturbance is expected override the lack of heat and generate showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening. The strength of the storms remains in question but even a moderate thunderstorm will have the potential to produce brief heavy rainfall. 1-2 rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through 10pm. - Individual thunderstorms will move from NW to SE at around 15mph. A briefly anchored strong thunderstorm or slower moving large thunderstorm will contain the greatest potential to produce long duration heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.5" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.5-1.3" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A briefly anchored thunderstorm or slower moving large thunderstorm may result in up to 2.5" of heavy rain in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 330 PM TO 930 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 330 PM TO 930 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 330 PM TO 930 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 330 PM TO 930 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 330 PM TO 930 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 330 PM TO 930 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM 330 PM TO 930 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 330 PM TO 930 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM 330 PM TO 930 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM 330 PM TO 930 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM 330 PM TO 930 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM 330 PM TO 930 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 330 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.3" (20%) ISSUED Arapahoe 330 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.3" (20%) ISSUED Broomfield 330 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.3" (20%) ISSUED Denver 330 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.3" (20%) ISSUED Boulder 300 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.3" (25%) ISSUED Douglas 300 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.3" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson 300 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.3" (25%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.3" (30%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.3" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.3" (30%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 3 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 846 AM Wed July 14, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- COOL AGAIN TODAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON & EVENING RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS - Cloudy and cool to start the day with partly cloudy to cloudy skies continuing throughout the day. High temperatures will reach the upper 70's to low 80's on the plains with low to mid 70's along the foothills. Elevated surface moisture is in place from a persistent influx of low-level moisture from the N/NE through the overnight and into this morning will increase the chances for heavy rainfall this afternoon and evening. - Although temperatures are rather cool today, an upper-level disturbance will initiate storms over the higher terrain by midday today. These storms will move into the District between 1-3pm this afternoon. Storm motions will be relatively fast between 10-15mph from west to east initially which will help limit some point rainfall amounts, however storms that form along outflow boundaries will likely move slowly and or erratically today leading to a good chance for isolated heavy rainfall. Storms also have a slight chance of becoming severe with strong winds and large hail. Best chance for storms in the District will be until sunset, with a slight chance for lingering rain showers/isolated thunderstorms until 10pm before skies start to gradually clear through the overnight. - Overnight will be generally mild as any rainfall chances taper off completely before midnight. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid 60's for most of the plains areas with mid to upper 50's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.4" of rainfall. Strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.4-1.2" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A nearly stationary strong thunderstorm may result in up to 2.4" of heavy rain in 45-75 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Afternoon/early evening rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain in play through the weekend. Temperatures will begin to warm tomorrow as high-pressure starts to slowly build back over the region. A bit drier air begins to move into the region tomorrow as well, which will decrease chances for heavy rainfall. Similar conditions Friday with a good chance for afternoon rain showers/isolated thunderstorms. Again, since the high-pressure ridge is building back, this will limit the potential for heavy rainfall, however, slow storms motions could create pockets of brief heavy rain. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (25%) HIGH Arapahoe 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (25%) HIGH Boulder 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (25%) HIGH Broomfield 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (25%) HIGH Denver 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (25%) HIGH Douglas 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (25%) HIGH Jefferson 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (25%) HIGH Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.2" (20%) HIGH Douglas 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.2" (20%) HIGH Jefferson 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.2" (20%) HIGH MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 3 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1135 AM Tue July 13, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RETURNS TO THE DISTRICT/BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE - A pseudo cold front moved through this morning and will likely keep temperatures a little cooler than expected in the 80's for highs over the plains. Behind this feature surface moisture has increased and will result in a better chance for thunderstorms this afternoon to produce brief heavy rainfall. - Thunderstorms are beginning to develop to the SW of the District currently and will become possible over the plains by early afternoon. NW to SE upper level winds at 15-20mph will keep storms moving along with any moderate to heavy rainfall being brief. Prime time for thunderstorms will be 2-9pm with the best chances for stronger storms over the W and S portions of the District. Training of thunderstorm cells or a briefly anchored thunderstorm will be the likely culprits for extended periods of moderate/heavy rain. - After 9 or 10pm any thunderstorm activity is expected to have diminished. Lingering isolated to widely scattered rain showers remain possible until midnight. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.3" of rain. Moderate and briefly strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.3-0.8" of rain in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of thunderstorm cells or a briefly anchored strong thunderstorm may result in up to 1.5" of rain in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: A cold front will move through on Wednesday and lower temperatures into the low and mid 80's for highs over the plains. The front will increase surface moisture and result in stronger thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff. Scattered to numerous storms are expected with chances extending well into the evening Wednesday. Stronger storms may also become severe with large hail and gusty winds being the primary threats. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Broomfield 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW Denver 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) MOD Douglas 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) MOD Jefferson 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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hpo-ims July 2021