July 2021 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 937 AM Tue July 6, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- COOLER TODAY WITH LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS - Behind a cold front that moved through before daybreak temperatures will be cooler over the District today. Temperatures will peak in the upper 70's to lower 80's over the plains which is about 10 degrees below normal. Normal high for Denver today is 89 degrees. - The cooler temperatures will push back the timing for thunderstorms by an hour or two and if temperatures remain too cool over the plains (mid/upper 70's) convection may be limited to the foothills and Palmer Divide only. With sunny skies currently the thinking is that temperatures warm enough for at least isolated afternoon thunderstorms over the plains with scattered coverage in the foothills. There is plenty of moisture available today with over 1" of precipitable water at the 6am sounding and stronger storms should they develop will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall. - Thunderstorms will develop over the mountains and foothills between 1-2pm with thunderstorm chances spreading out onto the plains between 2-4pm with NW to SE upper level steering winds. Best chances for thunderstorm activity will be through 8pm. Additional rain showers and possibly a weak thunderstorm remains possible into the evening with completely dry conditions by around midnight. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.30" of rain. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.3-0.8" of rain in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, slow moving thunderstorm may result in up to 1.6" of heavy rain in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Drier air will be moving into the District on Wednesday with temperatures warming into the mid 80's to around 90 for highs over the plains. Dry conditions are expected over the lower elevations with possibly a very isolated thunderstorm in the foothills. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 300 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW Arapahoe 300 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW Broomfield 300 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW Denver 300 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (70%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 100 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (85%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (25%) MOD Douglas 100 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (85%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (25%) MOD Jefferson 100 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (85%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (25%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 810 PM Mon July 5, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9:00 PM - Message 1's will be allowed to expire at 9:00pm as the threat for heavy rainfall has come to an end. - Temperatures have cooled behind a round of strong thunderstorms for south and eastern portions of the District that has slowly moved eastward and out of the District at this time. An additional round of rain showers with a few rumbles of thunder will be possible later this evening, but heavy rainfall is not expected. Best chance for an additional round of showers will be between 10pm and 2am. - Overnight lows will drop into the upper 50's to low 60's on the plains with low to mid 50's along the foothills. Tomorrow will be similar with another chance for strong to severe thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening with another likely threat for heavy rainfall. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will produce a trace to 0.2" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. A weak to moderate thunderstorm will produce 0.2-0.5" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate to strong thunderstorm has the potential to produce 0.5-1.0" in 60-90 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM DIA 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 200 AM TUE Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (5%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 200 AM TUE Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (5%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 200 AM TUE Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (5%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 200 AM TUE Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (5%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 200 AM TUE Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (5%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 200 AM TUE Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (5%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 200 AM TUE Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (5%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 200 AM TUE Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (5%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 200 AM TUE Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (5%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 200 AM TUE Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (5%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1204 PM Mon July 5, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for the entire District and will be valid from 1:00pm until 9:00pm this evening. - An approaching upper level disturbance is expected to result in a round or two of thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. Storms that develop today will be very capable of producing heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff and flash flooding. Storms will be slow moving as upper level steering winds are light from NW to SE at 5-10mph. Outflow boundaries and gust fronts may act to briefly anchor storms and may result in erratic storm motions at times. - After 9pm the threat for thunderstorm activity decreases but another round of showers is expected to move through and be in the area until around midnight. If the late evening round of showers also contains thunderstorm activity then Message 1's may need to be extended until midnight. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.4" of rainfall. Strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.4-1.2" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A nearly stationary strong thunderstorm may result in up to 2.5" of heavy rain in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 100 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 800 PM Jefferson County 1 100 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 800 PM Broomfield County 1 100 PM TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 800 PM Douglas County 1 100 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 800 PM Adams County 1 100 PM TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 800 PM Denver County 1 100 PM TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 800 PM DIA 1 100 PM TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 800 PM Arapahoe County 1 100 PM TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 800 PM the City of Aurora 1 100 PM TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 800 PM Arvada 1 100 PM TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 800 PM Wheat Ridge 1 100 PM TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 800 PM Lakewood 1 100 PM TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 800 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.2" (30%) ISSUED Arapahoe 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.2" (30%) ISSUED Broomfield 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.2" (30%) ISSUED Denver 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.2" (30%) ISSUED Boulder 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.2" (30%) ISSUED Douglas 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.2" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.2" (30%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (95%) to 0.4" (65%) to 1.2" (30%) ISSUED Douglas 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (95%) to 0.4" (65%) to 1.2" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (95%) to 0.4" (65%) to 1.2" (30%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 914 AM Mon July 5, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY - A passing upper level disturbance is expected to increase the thunderstorm activity today over the District. Ample moisture remains at the surface to fuel storms and in tandem with daytime heating thunderstorms will once again develop over the higher terrain to the W of the District by around noon. - Thunderstorm chances will increase over the plains between 1-3pm. Prime time for stronger thunderstorms will be between 3-9pm. An additional round of showers and possibly a weak thunderstorm continues likely until midnight with a few lingering isolated light rain showers into early Tuesday morning. Thunderstorms that develop today will be very capable of producing moderate to heavy rainfall and may become severe with large hail and gusty winds being the primary threats. - Upper level steering winds remain relatively light from NW to SE at 10-15mph. Outflow boundaries and gust fronts may act to slow down or briefly anchor storms and may result in erratic storm motions at times. Temperatures today expected to reach the lower 90's over the plains. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.4" of rainfall. Strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.4-1.2" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A nearly stationary strong thunderstorm may result in up to 2.5" of heavy rain in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Behind the disturbance on Tuesday temperatures will be cooler in the upper 70's to lower 80's for highs. The best chances for thunderstorms will be pushed southward but there will still be widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms with the potential to produce heavy rainfall. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.2" (30%) HIGH Arapahoe 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.2" (30%) HIGH Broomfield 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.2" (30%) HIGH Denver 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.2" (30%) HIGH Boulder 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.2" (30%) HIGH Douglas 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.2" (30%) HIGH Jefferson 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.2" (30%) HIGH Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (95%) to 0.4" (65%) to 1.2" (30%) HIGH Douglas 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (95%) to 0.4" (65%) to 1.2" (30%) HIGH Jefferson 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (95%) to 0.4" (65%) to 1.2" (30%) HIGH MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 725 PM Sun July 4, 2021 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8:30PM - Message 1's will be allowed to expire at 8:30pm as the threat for heavy rainfall has ended for the day. - A few strong isolated storms produced heavy rainfall for portions of the District today and have since moved eastward and well out of the District. Generally dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the evening and overnight period. - Overnight lows will drop into the upper 50's to low 60's on the plains with low to mid 50's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No meaningful precipitation is expected for the remainder of the evening and overnight period. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 830 PM Current TO 730 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 830 PM Current TO 730 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 830 PM Current TO 730 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 830 PM Current TO 730 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 830 PM Current TO 730 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 830 PM Current TO 730 PM DIA 1 Current TO 830 PM Current TO 730 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 830 PM Current TO 730 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 830 PM Current TO 730 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 830 PM Current TO 730 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 830 PM Current TO 730 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 830 PM Current TO 730 PM MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 214 PM Sun July 4, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for the entire District and will be valid until 8:30pm this evening. - Thunderstorms are beginning to develop in and around the District currently. Prime time for thunderstorms is from 3-8pm. Upper level steering winds from NW to SE at around 15mph will keep the the storms slowly moving along with stronger thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. - Strong thunderstorms may also become severe with large hail and gusty winds being the primary threats. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.4-1.0" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A large, slower moving strong thunderstorm may result in up to 1.8" of heavy rainfall in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Lakewood 1 Current TO 830 PM 300 PM TO 730 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 830 PM 300 PM TO 730 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 830 PM 300 PM TO 730 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 830 PM 300 PM TO 730 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 830 PM 300 PM TO 730 PM DIA 1 Current TO 830 PM 300 PM TO 730 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 830 PM 300 PM TO 730 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 830 PM 300 PM TO 730 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 830 PM 300 PM TO 730 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 830 PM 300 PM TO 730 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 830 PM 300 PM TO 730 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 830 PM 300 PM TO 730 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 830 PM SUN 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 0.9" (30%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 830 PM SUN 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 0.9" (30%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 830 PM SUN 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 0.9" (30%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 830 PM SUN 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 0.9" (30%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 830 PM SUN 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 0.9" (30%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 830 PM SUN 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 0.9" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 830 PM SUN 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 0.9" (30%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 830 PM SUN 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 0.9" (30%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 830 PM SUN 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 0.9" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 830 PM SUN 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 0.9" (30%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 842 AM Sun July 4, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL - Conditions over the District today will likely be somewhat similar to yesterday with widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms although with slower storm motions the threat for heavy rainfall is slightly higher. Temperature wise highs will again top out in the 90's over the plains with 80's in the Front Range foothills. - Dry conditions this morning will give way to initial thunderstorm development W of the District over the foothills between noon-1pm. Chances for thunderstorm activity increase over the plains between 1-3pm. Prime time for thunderstorms is from 3-8pm. Upper level steering winds from NW to SE at around 15mph will keep the the storms slowly moving along but stronger thunderstorms will have the potential to produce brief heavy rainfall and may become severe with gusty winds and hail being the primary threats. - After 8pm thunderstorm activity is expected to have diminished in time for the fireworks with generally dry conditions expected through the evening and overnight period. Have a happy and safe Independence Day from the MHFD! STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.3" of rain. moderate to briefly strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A large, slower moving strong thunderstorm may result in up to 1.6" of heavy rainfall in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Monday will feature an increase in moisture and the presence of a passing upper level disturbance. The result will be more thunderstorm activity with a much higher risk for heavy rainfall from thunderstorms that may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. Best chances for thunderstorms will be from 2-10pm, lingering rain showers may continue overnight. Temperatures will drop 1-3 degrees Monday, mainly due to more cloud cover earlier in the day. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 300 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD Arapahoe 300 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD Broomfield 300 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD Denver 300 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (15%) MOD Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 100 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Douglas 100 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Jefferson 100 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 715 PM Sat July 3, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8:30PM - Message 1's will be allowed to expire at 8:30pm as the threat for heavy rainfall has ended for the day. - An additional boundary moved through the District and failed to produce any thunderstorm activity. With temperatures now on the decline the threat for thunderstorms has ended for the day. - Generally dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the evening and overnight period. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No meaningful precipitation is expected for the remainder of the evening and overnight period. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 830 PM 300 PM TO 730 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 830 PM 300 PM TO 730 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 830 PM 300 PM TO 730 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 830 PM 300 PM TO 730 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 830 PM 300 PM TO 730 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 830 PM 300 PM TO 730 PM DIA 1 Current TO 830 PM 300 PM TO 730 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 830 PM 300 PM TO 730 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 830 PM 300 PM TO 730 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 830 PM 300 PM TO 730 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 830 PM 300 PM TO 730 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 830 PM 300 PM TO 730 PM MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 545 PM Sat July 3, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S CONTINUE VALID/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT DECREASING - Message 1's will continue valid for the entire District until 8:30pm although the threat for heavy rainfall is decreasing as time wears on. - The outflow boundary that had the potential to produce thunderstorms with heavy rainfall only resulted in weak to briefly moderate thunderstorm activity over the District. Stronger storms have developed south along this same boundary but no longer poses a threat locally. Another boundary is currently moving through the District and is not producing any meaningful storm activity and this trend is expected to continue. - Most of the shower and any thunderstorm activity is expected to remain over the higher terrain and south of the District into the evening, however if a thunderstorm is able to develop over the plains it would be capable of producing briefly heavy rain. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" of rain. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stationary strong thunderstorm may result in up to 1.6" in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 830 PM 300 PM TO 730 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 830 PM 300 PM TO 730 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 830 PM 300 PM TO 730 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 830 PM 300 PM TO 730 PM DIA 1 Current TO 830 PM 300 PM TO 730 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 830 PM 300 PM TO 730 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 830 PM 300 PM TO 730 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 830 PM 300 PM TO 730 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 830 PM 300 PM TO 730 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 830 PM 300 PM TO 730 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 830 PM 300 PM TO 730 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 830 PM 300 PM TO 730 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 830 PM SAT Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 830 PM SAT Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 830 PM SAT Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 830 PM SAT Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 830 PM SAT Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 830 PM SAT Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 830 PM SAT Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 830 PM SAT Trace (80%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.8" (15%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 830 PM SAT Trace (80%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.8" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 830 PM SAT Trace (80%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.8" (15%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 203 PM Sat July 3, 2021 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for the entire District and will be valid until 8:30pm this evening. - Thunderstorms have developed to the NW of the District and will be moving into the District shortly. These storms appear to be associated with a weak boundary moving southward that will pass through the District this afternoon and may be a focus for slower moving thunderstorms. - Thunderstorms that develop today are not expected to be as strong as previous days but will continue to have the potential to produce heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. Best chances for storms will be through 7:30pm. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.3-0.9" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stationary strong thunderstorm may result in up to 1.8" in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Denver County 1 Current TO 830 PM 300 PM TO 730 PM DIA 1 Current TO 830 PM 300 PM TO 730 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 830 PM 300 PM TO 730 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 830 PM 300 PM TO 730 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 830 PM 300 PM TO 730 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 830 PM 300 PM TO 730 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 830 PM 300 PM TO 730 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 830 PM 230 PM TO 730 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 830 PM 300 PM TO 730 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 830 PM Current TO 730 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 830 PM 300 PM TO 730 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 830 PM 300 PM TO 730 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 830 PM SAT 0.1" (65%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 830 PM SAT 0.1" (65%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 830 PM SAT 0.1" (85%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 830 PM SAT 0.1" (65%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 830 PM SAT 0.1" (65%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 830 PM SAT 0.1" (65%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 830 PM SAT 0.1" (65%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 830 PM SAT 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 830 PM SAT 0.1" (85%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 830 PM SAT 0.1" (85%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 years, 5 months

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