Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 926 AM Thu June 20, 2024
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Warmer today with a good chance for afternoon and evening
showers/thunderstorms.
Southwesterly flow aloft, combined with clear skies this morning
will heat the District well into the 80s if not around 90 degrees this
afternoon. A disturbance will move into the region this afternoon,
bringing a good chance for showers and thunderstorms across the I-25
corridor today, with multiple rounds possible into the evening hours
with a few lingering showers possible overnight.
Initial storm development will occur around midday today along the
higher terrain, moving onto the foothills between 1-3pm with the best
chance of thunderstorm activity in the District between 3-10pm with
lingering showers through 2am at this time. The first round of showers
and thunderstorms will have the biggest threat for moderate to heavy
rainfall with localized flooding possible under stronger storm
development. Storm motions will generally be WSW to ENE between
10-15mph, however, stronger storms will likely produce outflow
boundaries resulting in some erratic storm movement. The largest
threat today will likely be a quick 0.5” in 10-20min rather than any
long-lasting rain. A few lingering showers and possibly a thunderstorm
or two through the late evening with storms weakening overnight.
Off and on weak showers will be possible overnight as temperatures
drop into the low 60s along the plains with mid to upper 50s along the
foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce
0.05-0.25” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong
shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.25”-0.75” total in 10-30
minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong stationary thunderstorm, or training of
thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 1.50” in 30-60
minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Similar conditions remain in place tomorrow as high
temperatures reach the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Another chance
for afternoon showers and thunderstorms with at least a LOW chance for
Message 1s to be issued. Conditions start to dry out Saturday as high
temperatures reach well into the 90s.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.05" (80%) to 0.25" (60%) to 0.75" (30%)
MOD
Arapahoe
200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.05" (80%) to 0.25" (60%) to 0.75" (30%)
MOD
Boulder
200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%)
MOD
Broomfield
200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%)
MOD
Denver
200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%)
MOD
Douglas
200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%)
MOD
Jefferson
200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%)
MOD
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%)
MOD
Douglas
200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%)
MOD
Jefferson
200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%)
MOD
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
6 months, 1 week
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 1008 AM Wed June 19, 2024
Forecaster: Laura Smith
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Cooler today with slight chances for afternoon and evening activity
Southeasterly surface flow throughout the day today will be
responsible for the delivery of significant tropical moisture into the
Colorado region, setting up the active weather pattern for the next
few days along the Front Range urban corridor. After the passage of
yesterday’s cold front, temperatures remain cool today, peaking in
the low 70s. Dewpoints will be in the upper 40s to low 50s, with
precipitable water (PWAT) values around 0.80”.
There are a few limiting factors with storm development today that
will restrict thunderstorm intensity: a lack of upper-level forcing,
and cooler surface temps inhibiting convective initiation. If morning
cloud cover remains throughout the afternoon, storm distribution and
intensity will remain modest at best. If cloud cover dissipates, the
area will receive enough heat for scattered convection capable of
producing moderate to briefly heavy rainfall.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the mountains by
midafternoon, drifting over District just before the evening commute.
Storm motions will be from southwest to northeast around 20 mph.
Outflow boundary-driven initiation is likely throughout the evening
and into the night, with isolated overnight showers possible.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Thunderstorms today have the
potential to produce a trace to 0.50” in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Strong thunderstorms may be capable of producing
up to 1.25” in 30-60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Storm uncertainty disappears tomorrow, as more Gulf
moisture is transported into the region as the east coast heat wave
intensifies. The outer edge of this heat wave will encourage
temperatures well into the upper 80s and low 90s. A passing shortwave
aloft will be responsible for thunderstorm development during the late
afternoon, with severe threats possible: gusty winds up to 60+ mph,
heavy localized rainfall, and one inch hail.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
300 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (70%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Arapahoe
300 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (70%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Boulder
300 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (70%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Broomfield
300 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (70%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Denver
300 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (70%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Douglas
300 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (70%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Jefferson
300 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (70%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (70%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Douglas
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (70%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Jefferson
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (70%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
6 months, 1 week
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 956 AM Tue June 18, 2024
Forecaster: Laura Smith
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Cooler temperatures and isolated thunderstorms today
The heat wave has finally shifted east this morning, thanks to the
arrival of an upper-level trough and its associated cold front.
Temperatures will reach the mid to upper 70s with slight chances for
isolated showers and thunderstorms developing by the afternoon.
Dewpoints will be in the mid 30s, with precipitable water (PWAT)
values between 0.50”-0.60”. Storms will be capable of producing
light rainfall, with better chances across the foothills. Storm
motions will be from southwest to northeast between 15-20 mph.
Thunderstorms are expected to dissipate by mid evening with skies
remaining partly cloudy overnight.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical storms will produce a
trace to 0.10” in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Slow moving or training thunderstorms may be
capable of producing up to 0.50” in 45-60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: A more active pattern emerges tomorrow as elevated
moisture levels and favorable upper-level winds support chances for
scattered thunderstorms. Storms are expected to continue into the
evening, with a few isolated showers possible overnight. An expanding
and near-stationary heat dome over the east coast will force the
upper-level trough to reposition over the Great Basin on Thursday. As
a result, a warmer airmass and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will
advect (transport) into the four-corners region. Elevated moisture
levels and favorable upper-level winds from the southwest will support
afternoon and evening scattered thunderstorms across the High Plains
on Thursday, with a few storms capable of producing brief heavy rain.
There is still some uncertainty about the exact timing and
precipitation amounts, which will depend on the behavior of the heat
wave over the eastern US.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
300 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (35%) to 0.05" (25%) to 0.1" (15%)
NONE
Arapahoe
300 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (35%) to 0.05" (25%) to 0.1" (15%)
NONE
Boulder
300 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (35%) to 0.05" (25%) to 0.1" (15%)
NONE
Broomfield
300 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (35%) to 0.05" (25%) to 0.1" (15%)
NONE
Denver
300 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (35%) to 0.05" (25%) to 0.1" (15%)
NONE
Douglas
300 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (35%) to 0.05" (25%) to 0.1" (15%)
NONE
Jefferson
300 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (35%) to 0.05" (25%) to 0.1" (15%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
200 PM TO 1100 PM
Trace (45%) to 0.05" (35%) to 0.1" (25%)
NONE
Douglas
200 PM TO 1100 PM
Trace (45%) to 0.05" (35%) to 0.1" (25%)
NONE
Jefferson
200 PM TO 1100 PM
Trace (45%) to 0.05" (35%) to 0.1" (25%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
6 months, 1 week
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 934 AM Mon June 17, 2024
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Areas of patchy fog this morning with breezy and dry conditions
expected this afternoon.
Cool and foggy to start the day today. This cloud bank will quickly
mix out as winds pick up by midday out of the southwest. Winds will
pick up out of the south, turning southwest in the afternoon with
gusts up to 30mph at times.
Currently dew points are in the low to mid 50s and will likely mix out
into the low to mid 30s by midday. This will result in relative
humility to drop to 10%, combined with gusty winds has resulted in a
Red Flag Warning issued by the National Weather Service for today from
11am until 9pm.
High temperatures today will reach the mid 50s across most of the
District with mostly clear skies during the afternoon and evening.
Overnight temperatures will drop into the upper 50s on the plains with
low 50 along the foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected
today or this evening.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: If high based showers/isolated thunderstorm can
develop, only a trace to 0.10” of rainfall will be possible as most,
if not all precipitation will struggle to reach the surface.
A LOOK AHEAD: This heat wave begins to recede tomorrow with the
arrival of a weak cold front. Temperatures will reach the mid to upper
70s with chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
developing by the afternoon. A few storms may become severe, producing
gusty outflows exceeding 58 mph and/or hail greater than 1 inch in
diameter, mainly for areas east of the District at this time. Storms
are expected to continue into the evening, with a few isolated showers
possible overnight. The active pattern continues Wednesday with
another chance for afternoon and evening isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms. A slight chance for moderate to brief heavy
rainfall on Wednesday as an uptick in overall moisture will provide
better potential for stronger storm development.
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
6 months, 1 week
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 900 AM Sun June 16, 2024
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
HOT and dry today
Westerly upper-level flow aloft turns southwesterly this afternoon,
ushering in hot and dry conditions across Colorado today. High
temperatures will flirt with 100 degrees in the Metro, combined with
relative humidity in the 10-15% range has resulting in a heat advisory
across the District today effective from noon until 7pm this evening.
Minimal cloud cover currently will get temperatures increasing early
today with 90s expected by midday. Temperatures peak around 4pm with
conditions slowly cooling into the evening hours. Few clouds today
will limit any potential shade with mostly clear skies expected
through the overnight. Overnight temperatures will drop to around 60
degrees on the plains with mid to upper 50s along the foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected
today or this evening.
A LOOK AHEAD: Similar conditions remain in place tomorrow as high
temperatures reach the upper 90s. However, winds will increase from
the southwest between 10-15mph with gusts up to 30mph at times. This
could potentially increase the fire danger across portions of the
Metro tomorrow and into Wednesday. Wednesday remains hot and breezy
with a very slight chance of a few high-based showers/isolated
thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening.
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
6 months, 1 week
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 926 AM Sat June 15, 2024
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Warmer and sunny to start the day with a chance for high-based
isolated showers/thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Areas of lingering fog this morning has kept dew points elevated
across the District this morning, in the mid to upper 50s in some
spots. Dew points are anticipated to mix out throughout the day,
however, if dew points remain elevated into the afternoon there will
be a slight chance storms are able to tap into the surface moisture
and could potentially produce brief moderate to heavy rainfall. This
will keep at least a LOW chance for Messages to be issued this
afternoon, mainly if a stronger storm is able to develop and could
produce a quick 0.5” in 10-20 minutes.
Storms will start at midday along the higher terrain foothills and
Cheyenne Ridge/Palmer Divide. Storms will progress into the District
around 1pm and last through 6-7pm with skies clearing in the late
evening. Overnight conditions are expected to be mild as temperatures
drop into the low 60s. A few areas of patchy fog will be possible
through daybreak tomorrow before burning off as the morning
progresses.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and isolated
thunderstorms will produce a Trace-0.25” total in 10-30 minutes. A
moderate to strong shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.25-0.50” total
in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, stationary thunderstorm, or training of
thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 0.80”
total in under 30 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: High pressure starts to build tomorrow leading to mostly
mild and dry conditions throughout the day. Tomorrow’s high
temperatures jump back into the 90s under sunny. Dry and hot Monday as
high temperatures continue to reach well into the 90s.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
100 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Arapahoe
100 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Boulder
100 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Broomfield
100 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Denver
100 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Douglas
100 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Jefferson
100 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
100 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Douglas
100 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Jefferson
100 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
6 months, 1 week
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 500 PM Fri June 14, 2024
Forecaster: Aaron O'Brien
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGES 1’S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7:00 PM
Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 7pm as the threat of
heavy rain has come to an end.
Stronger storms have weakened and moved out of the district at this
time. Any additional rainfall today that may occur around sunset will
likely remain weak and uneventful. Storm motions continue to move
between 15-20 mph helping limit point rainfall amounts. Atmospheric
conditions will remain capped this evening and through the overnight
hours, supporting little to no additional chances for precipitation.
Overnight lows will drop to the low 60s to upper 50s for the plains
and upper to mid 50s for the foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Heavy rainfall is not expected
for the remainder of the evening and during the overnight hours.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: In the event of an isolated shower or
thunderstorm develops, 0.10”-0.30” total is possible in 10-30
minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Boulder County
1
Current TO 700 PM
Current TO 600 PM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 700 PM
Current TO 600 PM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 700 PM
Current TO 600 PM
Douglas County
1
Current TO 700 PM
Current TO 600 PM
Adams County
1
Current TO 700 PM
Current TO 600 PM
Denver County
1
Current TO 700 PM
Current TO 600 PM
DIA
1
Current TO 700 PM
Current TO 600 PM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 700 PM
Current TO 600 PM
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 700 PM
Current TO 600 PM
Arvada
1
Current TO 700 PM
Current TO 600 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 700 PM
Current TO 600 PM
Lakewood
1
Current TO 700 PM
Current TO 600 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 800 PM FRI
Trace (25%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%)
ISSUED
Arapahoe
Current TO 800 PM FRI
Trace (25%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%)
ISSUED
Boulder
Current TO 800 PM FRI
Trace (25%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%)
ISSUED
Broomfield
Current TO 800 PM FRI
Trace (25%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%)
ISSUED
Denver
Current TO 800 PM FRI
Trace (25%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 800 PM FRI
Trace (25%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 800 PM FRI
Trace (25%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%)
ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 800 PM FRI
Trace (25%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 800 PM FRI
Trace (25%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 800 PM FRI
Trace (25%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%)
ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
6 months, 1 week
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 1104 AM Fri June 14, 2024
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED EFFECTIVE UNTIL 7:00 PM
Message 1’s has been issued for the entire District effective
until 7:00pm as the threat of heavy rainfall with a chance for severe
storms, favoring eastern portions of the District. Severe storms may
contain large hail up to 1.5” and gusty winds 60+ mph.
The best chance for widespread showers/thunderstorm activity within
the District will be between 1pm-6pm with a few isolated lingering
showers possible through 10/11pm. The initial round of storms will
produce the strongest storms of the day with moderate to heavy
rainfall likely at times. Storm intensities will decrease into the
evening hours tapering off completely by midnight. Storm motions will
be west/southwest to east/northeast between 10-15mph which could limit
point rainfall amounts. However, outflow boundaries will likely
produce some erratic storm movement which will increase chances for
heavy rainfall across the District.
Skies will clear this evening with dry conditions expected through the
overnight as temperatures drop into the upper 50s to low 60s on the
plains with low to mid 50s along the foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and isolated
thunderstorms will produce a 0.25-0.75” total in 10-30 minutes. A
moderate to strong/severe shower/thunderstorm will produce
0.75-1.25” total in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, stationary thunderstorm, or training of
thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 2.25”
total in under 60 minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Wheat Ridge
1
1200 PM TO 700 PM
100 PM TO 600 PM
Lakewood
1
1200 PM TO 700 PM
100 PM TO 600 PM
Arvada
1
1200 PM TO 700 PM
100 PM TO 600 PM
the City of Aurora
1
1200 PM TO 700 PM
100 PM TO 600 PM
Arapahoe County
1
1200 PM TO 700 PM
100 PM TO 600 PM
DIA
1
1200 PM TO 700 PM
100 PM TO 600 PM
Denver County
1
1200 PM TO 700 PM
100 PM TO 600 PM
Adams County
1
1200 PM TO 700 PM
100 PM TO 600 PM
Douglas County
1
1200 PM TO 700 PM
100 PM TO 600 PM
Broomfield County
1
1200 PM TO 700 PM
100 PM TO 600 PM
Jefferson County
1
1200 PM TO 700 PM
100 PM TO 600 PM
Boulder County
1
1200 PM TO 700 PM
100 PM TO 600 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
1200 PM TO 700 PM
0.25" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.25" (25%)
ISSUED
Arapahoe
1200 PM TO 700 PM
0.25" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.25" (25%)
ISSUED
Boulder
1200 PM TO 700 PM
0.25" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.25" (25%)
ISSUED
Broomfield
1200 PM TO 700 PM
0.25" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.25" (25%)
ISSUED
Denver
1200 PM TO 700 PM
0.25" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.25" (25%)
ISSUED
Douglas
1200 PM TO 700 PM
0.25" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.25" (25%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
1200 PM TO 700 PM
0.25" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1.25" (25%)
ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
1200 PM TO 700 PM
0.25" (60%) to 0.75" (30%) to 1.25" (15%)
ISSUED
Douglas
1200 PM TO 700 PM
0.25" (60%) to 0.75" (30%) to 1.25" (15%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
1200 PM TO 700 PM
0.25" (60%) to 0.75" (30%) to 1.25" (15%)
ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
6 months, 1 week
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 920 AM Fri June 14, 2024
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Warm and sunny to start the day with a good chance of strong to severe
storms this afternoon.
An active weather day today for the District as widespread showers
and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and possibly lingering
into the later evening hours. High temperatures today will reach the
low to mid 80s with clouds increasing this afternoon as storms start
to initiate along the higher terrain by midday.
A good chance storms become severe today, favoring areas east of I-25,
mainly for brief gusty winds 60+ mph and hail up to 1.5”. Typical
showers will be between 0.25-0.75” with isolated higher amounts
possible under stronger storm development. Storms will generally move
from the WSW to ENE between 10-15mph with erratic storm movement
likely along outflow boundaries this afternoon and early evening. The
best chance for storms today will be between 1-6pm with a slight
chance for a few lingering showers/isolated thunderstorms into the
evening hours before skies gradually clear through the overnight.
Overnight conditions are expected to be mild as temperatures drop into
the low 60s. A few areas of patchy fog will be possible through
daybreak tomorrow before burning off as the morning progresses.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and isolated
thunderstorms will produce a 0.25”-0.75” total in 10-30 minutes. A
moderate to strong/severe shower/thunderstorm will produce
0.75-1.25” total in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, stationary thunderstorm, or training of
thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 2.50”
total in under 60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: High pressure starts to build tomorrow leading to mostly
mild and dry conditions throughout the day. A slight chance for the
typical late spring showers and isolated thunderstorms. A slight
chance will likely remain at least for a LOW chance for brief heavy
rainfall, mainly due to residual moisture at the surface from
today’s rainfall event. Tomorrow’s high temperatures jump back
into the upper 80s to low 90s. Dry and hot Monday as high temperatures
reach well into the 90s.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
100 PM TO 600 PM
0.25" (80%) to 0.75" (40%) to 1.25" (20%)
HIGH
Arapahoe
100 PM TO 600 PM
0.25" (80%) to 0.75" (40%) to 1.25" (20%)
HIGH
Boulder
100 PM TO 600 PM
0.25" (80%) to 0.75" (40%) to 1.25" (20%)
HIGH
Broomfield
100 PM TO 600 PM
0.25" (80%) to 0.75" (40%) to 1.25" (20%)
HIGH
Denver
100 PM TO 600 PM
0.25" (80%) to 0.75" (40%) to 1.25" (20%)
HIGH
Douglas
100 PM TO 600 PM
0.25" (80%) to 0.75" (40%) to 1.25" (20%)
HIGH
Jefferson
100 PM TO 600 PM
0.25" (80%) to 0.75" (40%) to 1.25" (20%)
HIGH
Foothills above 6500ft
Douglas
100 PM TO 600 PM
0.25" (80%) to 0.75" (40%) to 1.25" (20%)
HIGH
Jefferson
100 PM TO 600 PM
0.25" (80%) to 0.75" (40%) to 1.25" (20%)
HIGH
Boulder
1200 PM TO 500 PM
0.25" (80%) to 0.75" (40%) to 1.25" (20%)
HIGH
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
6 months, 1 week
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 936 PM Thu June 13, 2024
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
An increased chance for a late evening round of showers/isolated
thunderstorms
A couple of gust fronts earlier this evening produced a late round
of showers/thunderstorms along the Continental Divide. Persistent
easterly surface flow has this afternoon and evening has ushered in
upper 40s to low 50s dew points across the District. A stronger
upper-level disturbance is expected to move into the region tomorrow,
however, these evening storms have the potential to tap into some of
that energy, increasing the chance for storms into the late evening.
Once storms start moving east, general movement speeds will be between
10-15mph from west to east. A few erratic motions could be possible if
stronger storms are able to form along outflow boundaries. The best
chance for storms will be over the next hour, through midnight
tonight, with at least a LOW chance for Message 1s to be issued. The
biggest threat this evening would be a quick 0.5” in 10-20 minutes
as storms have the potential to tap into decent surface moisture.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and isolated
thunderstorms will produce a 0.05-0.25” total in 10-30 minutes. A
moderate to strong shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.25-0.75” total
in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, stationary thunderstorm, or training of
thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 1.50”
total in under 60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: The heat wave begins to recede tomorrow with the arrival
of a cold front and cutoff upper level low. Temperatures will reach
the mid 80s, dew points in the 50s, and precipitable water (PWAT)
values around 1.00”. These conditions support chances for scattered
to widespread organized convection developing by the afternoon. A few
storms may be capable of producing heavy rainfall across the District.
Storms will quickly move northeast, exiting the area by the early
evening.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.05" (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.75" (10%)
LOW
Arapahoe
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.05" (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.75" (10%)
LOW
Boulder
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.05" (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.75" (10%)
LOW
Broomfield
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.05" (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.75" (10%)
LOW
Denver
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.05" (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.75" (10%)
LOW
Douglas
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.05" (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.75" (10%)
LOW
Jefferson
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.05" (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.75" (10%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%)
MOD
Douglas
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%)
MOD
Jefferson
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%)
MOD
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
6 months, 1 week