Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 250 PM Sun June 9, 2024
Forecaster: Aaron O
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED EFFECTIVE UNTIL 9:00 PM
Message 1’s have been issued for the entire District effective
until 9:00pm as the threat for heavy rainfall with the potential for
severe storms across the District this afternoon and evening.
The best chance for any shower/thunderstorm activity within the
District will be between now-8pm with a few lingering showers possible
through midnight. The best chance for heavy rainfall will be
throughout the entire message times. Storm motions will be nearly
non-exsistant with pulse like thunderstorms producing some longer
lasting moderate to heavy rain. Outflow boundaries will also produce
additinal erratic storm movement which will only increase chances for
heavy rainfall through the afternoon and into the evening.
Lack of upper-level support suggest slow moving storms with a low
chance of severe weather today, mainly gusty winds 60+ mph and hail up
to 1.0” in diameter likely favoring the plains areas of the
district. Severe storms will also contain isolated heavy rainfall with
the largest threat being stationary heavy rainfall creating a quick
0.5-1.0” in 10-15 minutes.
Skies will clear this evening and overnight as temperatures drop into
the mid to upper 50s in the plains and low to mid 50s along the
foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce
rainfall of a 0.10”-0.50” total in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to
strong showers have the potential to produce rainfall of
0.50”-1.50” total in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Strong stationery, or training of thunderstorms
has the potential to produce up to 2.25” in under 60 minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
the City of Aurora
1
1200 PM TO 900 PM
100 PM TO 830 PM
Arapahoe County
1
1200 PM TO 900 PM
100 PM TO 830 PM
DIA
1
1200 PM TO 900 PM
100 PM TO 830 PM
Denver County
1
1200 PM TO 900 PM
100 PM TO 830 PM
Adams County
1
1200 PM TO 900 PM
100 PM TO 830 PM
Douglas County
1
1200 PM TO 900 PM
100 PM TO 830 PM
Broomfield County
1
1200 PM TO 900 PM
100 PM TO 830 PM
Jefferson County
1
1200 PM TO 900 PM
100 PM TO 830 PM
Boulder County
1
1200 PM TO 900 PM
100 PM TO 830 PM
Arvada
1
1200 PM TO 900 PM
100 PM TO 830 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
1200 PM TO 900 PM
100 PM TO 830 PM
Lakewood
1
1200 PM TO 900 PM
100 PM TO 830 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
1200 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%)
ISSUED
Arapahoe
1200 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%)
ISSUED
Boulder
1200 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%)
ISSUED
Broomfield
1200 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%)
ISSUED
Denver
1200 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%)
ISSUED
Douglas
1200 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
1200 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%)
ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
1200 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (70%) to 0.5" (35%) to 1.5" (15%)
ISSUED
Douglas
1200 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (70%) to 0.5" (35%) to 1.5" (15%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
1200 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (70%) to 0.5" (35%) to 1.5" (15%)
ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
6 months, 2 weeks
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 924 AM Sun June 9, 2024
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Slightly cooler than seasonable temperatures today with another chance
for afternoon and evening showers and isolated thunderstorms.
High-pressure starts to build today as temperatures struggle to
reach 80 degrees this afternoon. Dew points currently in the 50s and
will likely hold during the day today. This will enhance the threat of
brief heavy rainfall during the afternoon and early evening before
skies gradually clear through the overnight tonight.
The best chance for moderate to heavy shower/thunderstorm activity
within the District will be between 2-8pm with a few lingering showers
possible through midnight. The best chance for heavy rainfall will be
during the initial round of storms, with storm intensities decreasing
after sunset. Storm motions will be minimal, with most storms behaving
in a pulse up manner with little to no actual movement, leading to an
increased chance for isolated heavy rainfall within the District. A
low chance remains for severe weather today, mainly for gusty winds of
60+ mph and hail up to 1.0” in diameter, favoring areas east of I-25
at this time.
Skies will gradually clear overnight and into daybreak Monday as
temperatures drop into the mid to upper 50s on the plains with upper
40s to around 50 degrees along the foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and isolated
thunderstorms will produce a 0.05-0.30” total in 10-30 minutes. A
moderate to strong/severe shower/thunderstorm will produce
0.30-0.60” total in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, stationary thunderstorm, or training of
thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 1.20”
total in under 60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Minimal overall change Monday as high temperatures
remain in the low to mid 80s. A continued chance for afternoon and
early evening showers/thunderstorms, with a slight chance some of
those storms produce brief heavy rainfall, likely keeping a LOW chance
for Messages. Conditions start to dry out Tuesday with just a typical
chance for springtime afternoon showers/isolated thunderstorms.
Wednesday is expected to be even drier with minimal, if any, chance
for precipitation at this time across the District.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
1200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%)
MOD
Arapahoe
1200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%)
MOD
Boulder
1200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (25%)
MOD
Broomfield
1200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (25%)
MOD
Denver
1200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%)
MOD
Douglas
1200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (25%)
MOD
Jefferson
1200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (25%)
MOD
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
1200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (20%)
LOW
Douglas
1200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (20%)
LOW
Jefferson
1200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (20%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
6 months, 2 weeks
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 648 PM Sat June 8, 2024
Forecaster: Aaron O
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1’S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8:00 PM
Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 8pm as the threat of
heavy rain has come to an end.
Stronger storms that formed just outside of the District have moved
east at this time, with only lingering light showers moving off the
foothills, favoring northern portions of the District. Storm motions
continue to move between 20-30mph helping limit point rainfall
amounts. Atmospheric conditions will remain capped this evening and
through the overnight hours, supporting little to no additional
chances for precipitation once these residual showers/isolated
thunderstorms move through the District. Skies will gradually clear
through the rest of the evening with clear skies expected during the
overnight.
Overnight lows will drop into the mid to upper 50s on the plains with
upper 40s to around 50 degrees along the foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: A few lingering showers will
have potenial to produce T-0.10" total in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: In the event an isolated stronger shower or
thunderstorm develops, 0.10"-0.30” total is possible in 10-30
minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
Arvada
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
DIA
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
Adams County
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
Denver County
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
Douglas County
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
Boulder County
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
Lakewood
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Current TO 900 PM SAT
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%)
NONE
Current TO 900 PM SAT
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%)
NONE
Current TO 900 PM SAT
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%)
NONE
Current TO 900 PM SAT
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Current TO 900 PM SAT
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Current TO 900 PM SAT
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Current TO 900 PM SAT
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Current TO 900 PM SAT
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Current TO 900 PM SAT
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Current TO 900 PM SAT
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
6 months, 2 weeks
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 1159 AM Sat June 8, 2024
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED EFFECTIVE UNTIL 8:00 PM
Message 1’s have been issued for the entire District effective
until 8:00pm as the threat for heavy rainfall with the potential for
severe storms across the District this afternoon and early evening.
The best chance for any shower/thunderstorm activity within the
District will be between noon-8pm with a few lingering showers
possible through 10pm. The best chance for heavy rainfall will be
during the initial round of storms, with storm intensities decreasing
into the evening hours. Storm motions will be west to east between
20-25mph which should also limit point rainfall amounts. However,
outflow boundaries could produce erratic storm movement which will
increase chances for brief heavy rainfall.
Good upper-level support suggests at least a moderate chance for
severe weather today, mainly for gusty winds 60+ mph and hail up to
1.0” in diameter likely favoring areas east of I-25. Severe storms
will also contain isolated heavy rainfall with the largest threat
being a quick 0.5” in 10-15min rather than any long-lasting heavy
rainfall. Skies will clear this evening with dry conditions expected
through the overnight as temperatures drop into the mid to upper 50s
on the plains with upper 40s to around 50 degrees along the foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and isolated
thunderstorms will produce a 0.05-0.30” total in 10-30 minutes. A
moderate to strong/severe shower/thunderstorm will produce
0.30-0.60” total in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, stationary thunderstorm, or training of
thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 1.20”
total in under 60 minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Arvada
1
1200 PM TO 800 PM
100 PM TO 700 PM
the City of Aurora
1
1200 PM TO 800 PM
100 PM TO 700 PM
Denver County
1
1200 PM TO 800 PM
100 PM TO 700 PM
Arapahoe County
1
1200 PM TO 800 PM
100 PM TO 700 PM
DIA
1
1200 PM TO 800 PM
100 PM TO 700 PM
Adams County
1
1200 PM TO 800 PM
100 PM TO 700 PM
Douglas County
1
1200 PM TO 800 PM
100 PM TO 700 PM
Broomfield County
1
1200 PM TO 800 PM
100 PM TO 700 PM
Jefferson County
1
1200 PM TO 800 PM
100 PM TO 700 PM
Boulder County
1
1200 PM TO 800 PM
100 PM TO 700 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
1200 PM TO 800 PM
100 PM TO 700 PM
Lakewood
1
1200 PM TO 800 PM
100 PM TO 700 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
1200 PM TO 800 PM
0.05" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%)
ISSUED
Arapahoe
1200 PM TO 800 PM
0.05" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%)
ISSUED
Boulder
1200 PM TO 800 PM
0.05" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%)
ISSUED
Broomfield
1200 PM TO 800 PM
0.05" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%)
ISSUED
Denver
1200 PM TO 800 PM
0.05" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%)
ISSUED
Douglas
1200 PM TO 800 PM
0.05" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
1200 PM TO 800 PM
0.05" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%)
ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
1200 PM TO 800 PM
0.05" (70%) to 0.3" (35%) to 0.6" (15%)
ISSUED
Douglas
1200 PM TO 800 PM
0.05" (70%) to 0.3" (35%) to 0.6" (15%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
1200 PM TO 800 PM
0.05" (70%) to 0.3" (35%) to 0.6" (15%)
ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
6 months, 2 weeks
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 927 AM Sat June 8, 2024
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Cooler today with a better chance for afternoon and early evening
showers/isolated thunderstorms.
Westerly flow aloft will dominate over the region today, leading to
warm and dry conditions this morning. Dew points currently around 50
degrees will likely hold during the day today, likely enhancing the
threat for brief heavy rainfall during the afternoon and early evening
before skies gradually clear through the later evening.
The best chance for any shower/thunderstorm activity within the
District will be between 1-7pm with a few lingering showers possible
through 9pm. The best chance for heavy rainfall will be during the
initial round of storms, with storm intensities decreasing into the
evening hours. Storm motions will be west to east between 15-20mph
which will also limit point rainfall amounts. Good upper-level support
suggests at least a moderate chance for severe weather today, mainly
for gusty winds 60+ mph and hail up to 1.0” in diameter. Severe
storms will also contain isolated heavy rainfall with the largest
threat being a quick 0.5” in 10-15min rather than any long-lasting
heavy rainfall.
Skies will gradually clear later this evening with dry conditions
expected through the overnight as temperatures drop into the mid to
upper 50s on the plains with upper 40s to around 50 degrees along the
foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and isolated
thunderstorms will produce a 0.05-0.30” total in 10-30 minutes. A
moderate to strong/severe shower/thunderstorm will produce
0.30-0.60” total in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, stationary thunderstorm, or training of
thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 1.20”
total in under 60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Similar conditions remain in place on Sunday. However,
slightly less overall moisture will decrease storm potential slightly
across the I-25 corridor. The timing of storm chances will once again
be in the early afternoon, lasting into the early evening before any
shower activity clears out for the rest of the evening and overnight.
Depending on the amount of residual moisture from today will dictate
the threat level tomorrow with at least a LOW chance for Messages at
this time. Minimal overall change Monday as high temperatures remain
in the low to mid 80s. A continued chance for afternoon and early
evening showers/thunderstorms, with a slight chance some of those
storms produce brief heavy rainfall, likely keeping a LOW chance for
Messages.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
100 PM TO 700 PM
0.05" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%)
MOD
Arapahoe
100 PM TO 700 PM
0.05" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%)
MOD
Boulder
100 PM TO 700 PM
0.05" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (20%)
MOD
Broomfield
100 PM TO 700 PM
0.05" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (20%)
MOD
Denver
100 PM TO 700 PM
0.05" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%)
MOD
Douglas
100 PM TO 700 PM
0.05" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (20%)
MOD
Jefferson
100 PM TO 700 PM
0.05" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (20%)
MOD
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
100 PM TO 700 PM
0.05" (70%) to 0.3" (35%) to 0.6" (15%)
LOW
Douglas
100 PM TO 700 PM
0.05" (70%) to 0.3" (35%) to 0.6" (15%)
LOW
Jefferson
100 PM TO 700 PM
0.05" (70%) to 0.3" (35%) to 0.6" (15%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
6 months, 2 weeks
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 923 AM Fri June 7, 2024
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Hot today with a slight chance for high based showers/isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
West to northwesterly flow aloft will continue to dominate today,
leading to hot and mostly dry conditions this afternoon and into the
evening. Dew points will likely mix out during the day today, dropping
into the mid to upper 30s, effectively limiting precipitation during
the day today as most rainfall will likely struggle to reach the
surface.
The best chance for any shower activity within the District this
afternoon will be between 1-8pm with a few lingering showers possible
through midnight. Storm motions will be west to east between 10-15mph
which will also limit point rainfall amounts. With temperatures in the
90s, and dew points in the 30s, expect some gusty winds with any
rainfall that evaporates with some gusts as high as 50mph under
dissipating storms.
Skies will gradually clear later this evening with dry conditions
expected through the overnight as temperatures drop into the upper 50s
to around 60 degrees on the plains with around 50 degrees along the
foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and isolated
thunderstorms will produce a T-0.10” total in 10-30 minutes. A
moderate shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.10-0.20” total in 10-30
minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger thunderstorm, or training of
thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 0.4”
total in under 30 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Temperatures tomorrow will decrease into the low 80s in
the afternoon. A better chance for showers/isolated thunderstorms
during the afternoon and early evening. A slight chance one or two of
these storms become severe with hail up to 1.0” and gusty winds up
to 60mph. This will also result in at least a LOW chance of heavy
rainfall for the District. Any storm activity tomorrow is expected to
clear out by 8pm with clear skies through the late evening and
overnight. Similar conditions remain in place on Sunday. However,
slightly less overall moisture will decrease storm potential across
the I-25 corridor.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%)
NONE
Arapahoe
100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%)
NONE
Boulder
100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Broomfield
100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Denver
100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%)
NONE
Douglas
100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%)
NONE
Jefferson
100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
1200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Douglas
1200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Jefferson
1200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
6 months, 2 weeks
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 913 AM Thu June 6, 2024
Forecaster: Laura Smith
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Hot and dry conditions persist today
Hot and dry conditions prevail across the District as a heat wave
remains parked over the Desert Southwest. Today will be sunny with
afternoon temperatures climbing into the in upper 80s to low 90s, dew
points in the mid 30s, and precipitable water (PWAT) values around
0.65”. Westerly upper-level flow will inhibit thunderstorm
development again today, with dry conditions expected to continue
overnight.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Precipitation is not expected
in the District today.
A LOOK AHEAD: On Friday, a weak upper-level disturbance and elevated
atmospheric moisture will promote isolated thunderstorm activity
across the High Plains. Afternoon temperatures will soar into the mid
90s ahead of storm initiation. Showers and thunderstorms will continue
into the evening, then subside overnight. The active pattern is
expected to continue into the weekend.
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
6 months, 3 weeks
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 940 AM Wed June 5, 2024
Forecaster: Laura Smith
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Hot and dry weather emerges across the District
Hot and dry conditions prevail across the Front Range Urban Corridor
as a heat wave anchors over the Desert Southwest. Today will be sunny
with afternoon temperatures soaring into the in the 90s, dew points in
the low to mid 30s, and precipitable water (PWAT) values around
0.45”. Westerly upper-level flow and a very dry mid-level will
inhibit thunderstorm development, supporting dry and breezy conditions
across the District. Winds will gradually subside after sunset with
calm conditions overnight.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Precipitation is not expected
in the District today.
A LOOK AHEAD: Hot and dry summer weather continues Thursday under
sunny skies with afternoon temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to
low 90s. On Friday, a weak upper-level disturbance and elevated
atmospheric moisture will promote isolated thunderstorm activity
across the High Plains. An active pattern is expected through the
weekend along with much needed cooler temperatures.
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
6 months, 3 weeks
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 938 AM Tue June 4, 2024
Forecaster: Laura Smith
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Dry and mostly sunny conditions across the District today
High pressure ridging will continue building over the four corners
region today, supporting dry conditions across the Front Range Urban
Corridor through Friday. Today will be partly sunny with Afternoon
highs in the mid 80s, dew points in the mid 30s, and precipitable
water (PWAT) values around 0.6”. Westerly upper-level flow will
inhibit thunderstorm development, supporting dry and breezy conditions
across the District. Winds will gradually subside after sunset with
calm conditions prevailing overnight.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Precipitation is not expected
in the District today.
A LOOK AHEAD: Hot and dry conditions emerge Wednesday under sunny
skies with afternoon temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to low
90s. Precipitation is not expected in the District tomorrow or
Thursday. The next disturbance will arrive Friday, supporting slight
chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
6 months, 3 weeks
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 924 AM Mon June 3, 2024
Forecaster: Laura Smith
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Slight chances for isolated afternoon to evening showers and
thunderstorms.
High pressure ridging will begin building over the four corners
region today, supporting hot and mostly dry conditions across the
Front Range Urban Corridor throughout Friday. Today, skies will be
partly cloudy with afternoon highs climbing into the upper 80s to low
90s, dew points in the mid 30s, and precipitable water (PWAT) values
around 0.65”. A weak upper-level perturbation will support a slight
chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. Quick storm motions around 20-25 mph, moving west to east,
will result in minimal rainfall amounts. Storms will begin clearing by
mid evening, with precipitation concluding by the late evening.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce up
to 0.10” total in 15-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: There is a slight chance a stronger thunderstorm
will produce briefly moderate rainfall up to 0.15” of rainfall in up
to 10-15 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Tomorrow will be partly sunny with highs in the mid-80s.
Westerly upper-level flow will inhibit thunderstorm development,
supporting dry and breezy conditions with wind gusts up to 30 mph.
Winds will gradually subside after sunset with calm conditions
prevailing overnight.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.15" (5%)
NONE
Arapahoe
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.15" (5%)
NONE
Boulder
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.15" (5%)
NONE
Broomfield
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.15" (5%)
NONE
Denver
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.15" (5%)
NONE
Douglas
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.15" (5%)
NONE
Jefferson
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.15" (5%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.15" (5%)
NONE
Douglas
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.15" (5%)
NONE
Jefferson
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.15" (5%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
6 months, 3 weeks