June 2024 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 924 AM Sun June 9, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Slightly cooler than seasonable temperatures today with another chance for afternoon and evening showers and isolated thunderstorms. High-pressure starts to build today as temperatures struggle to reach 80 degrees this afternoon. Dew points currently in the 50s and will likely hold during the day today. This will enhance the threat of brief heavy rainfall during the afternoon and early evening before skies gradually clear through the overnight tonight. The best chance for moderate to heavy shower/thunderstorm activity within the District will be between 2-8pm with a few lingering showers possible through midnight. The best chance for heavy rainfall will be during the initial round of storms, with storm intensities decreasing after sunset. Storm motions will be minimal, with most storms behaving in a pulse up manner with little to no actual movement, leading to an increased chance for isolated heavy rainfall within the District. A low chance remains for severe weather today, mainly for gusty winds of 60+ mph and hail up to 1.0” in diameter, favoring areas east of I-25 at this time. Skies will gradually clear overnight and into daybreak Monday as temperatures drop into the mid to upper 50s on the plains with upper 40s to around 50 degrees along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and isolated thunderstorms will produce a 0.05-0.30” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong/severe shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.30-0.60” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, stationary thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 1.20” total in under 60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Minimal overall change Monday as high temperatures remain in the low to mid 80s. A continued chance for afternoon and early evening showers/thunderstorms, with a slight chance some of those storms produce brief heavy rainfall, likely keeping a LOW chance for Messages. Conditions start to dry out Tuesday with just a typical chance for springtime afternoon showers/isolated thunderstorms. Wednesday is expected to be even drier with minimal, if any, chance for precipitation at this time across the District. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) MOD Arapahoe 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) MOD Boulder 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (25%) MOD Broomfield 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (25%) MOD Denver 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) MOD Douglas 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (25%) MOD Jefferson 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (25%) MOD Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW Douglas 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW Jefferson 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 648 PM Sat June 8, 2024 Forecaster: Aaron O ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8:00 PM Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 8pm as the threat of heavy rain has come to an end. Stronger storms that formed just outside of the District have moved east at this time, with only lingering light showers moving off the foothills, favoring northern portions of the District. Storm motions continue to move between 20-30mph helping limit point rainfall amounts. Atmospheric conditions will remain capped this evening and through the overnight hours, supporting little to no additional chances for precipitation once these residual showers/isolated thunderstorms move through the District. Skies will gradually clear through the rest of the evening with clear skies expected during the overnight. Overnight lows will drop into the mid to upper 50s on the plains with upper 40s to around 50 degrees along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: A few lingering showers will have potenial to produce T-0.10" total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: In the event an isolated stronger shower or thunderstorm develops, 0.10"-0.30” total is possible in 10-30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM DIA 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Current TO 900 PM SAT Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Current TO 900 PM SAT Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Current TO 900 PM SAT Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Current TO 900 PM SAT Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Current TO 900 PM SAT Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Current TO 900 PM SAT Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Current TO 900 PM SAT Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Current TO 900 PM SAT Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Current TO 900 PM SAT Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Current TO 900 PM SAT Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1159 AM Sat June 8, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED EFFECTIVE UNTIL 8:00 PM Message 1’s have been issued for the entire District effective until 8:00pm as the threat for heavy rainfall with the potential for severe storms across the District this afternoon and early evening. The best chance for any shower/thunderstorm activity within the District will be between noon-8pm with a few lingering showers possible through 10pm. The best chance for heavy rainfall will be during the initial round of storms, with storm intensities decreasing into the evening hours. Storm motions will be west to east between 20-25mph which should also limit point rainfall amounts. However, outflow boundaries could produce erratic storm movement which will increase chances for brief heavy rainfall. Good upper-level support suggests at least a moderate chance for severe weather today, mainly for gusty winds 60+ mph and hail up to 1.0” in diameter likely favoring areas east of I-25. Severe storms will also contain isolated heavy rainfall with the largest threat being a quick 0.5” in 10-15min rather than any long-lasting heavy rainfall. Skies will clear this evening with dry conditions expected through the overnight as temperatures drop into the mid to upper 50s on the plains with upper 40s to around 50 degrees along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and isolated thunderstorms will produce a 0.05-0.30” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong/severe shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.30-0.60” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, stationary thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 1.20” total in under 60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Arvada 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 100 PM TO 700 PM the City of Aurora 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 100 PM TO 700 PM Denver County 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 100 PM TO 700 PM Arapahoe County 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 100 PM TO 700 PM DIA 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 100 PM TO 700 PM Adams County 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 100 PM TO 700 PM Douglas County 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 100 PM TO 700 PM Broomfield County 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 100 PM TO 700 PM Jefferson County 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 100 PM TO 700 PM Boulder County 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 100 PM TO 700 PM Wheat Ridge 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 100 PM TO 700 PM Lakewood 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 100 PM TO 700 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 1200 PM TO 800 PM 0.05" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) ISSUED Arapahoe 1200 PM TO 800 PM 0.05" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) ISSUED Boulder 1200 PM TO 800 PM 0.05" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) ISSUED Broomfield 1200 PM TO 800 PM 0.05" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) ISSUED Denver 1200 PM TO 800 PM 0.05" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) ISSUED Douglas 1200 PM TO 800 PM 0.05" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson 1200 PM TO 800 PM 0.05" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 1200 PM TO 800 PM 0.05" (70%) to 0.3" (35%) to 0.6" (15%) ISSUED Douglas 1200 PM TO 800 PM 0.05" (70%) to 0.3" (35%) to 0.6" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson 1200 PM TO 800 PM 0.05" (70%) to 0.3" (35%) to 0.6" (15%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 927 AM Sat June 8, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Cooler today with a better chance for afternoon and early evening showers/isolated thunderstorms. Westerly flow aloft will dominate over the region today, leading to warm and dry conditions this morning. Dew points currently around 50 degrees will likely hold during the day today, likely enhancing the threat for brief heavy rainfall during the afternoon and early evening before skies gradually clear through the later evening. The best chance for any shower/thunderstorm activity within the District will be between 1-7pm with a few lingering showers possible through 9pm. The best chance for heavy rainfall will be during the initial round of storms, with storm intensities decreasing into the evening hours. Storm motions will be west to east between 15-20mph which will also limit point rainfall amounts. Good upper-level support suggests at least a moderate chance for severe weather today, mainly for gusty winds 60+ mph and hail up to 1.0” in diameter. Severe storms will also contain isolated heavy rainfall with the largest threat being a quick 0.5” in 10-15min rather than any long-lasting heavy rainfall. Skies will gradually clear later this evening with dry conditions expected through the overnight as temperatures drop into the mid to upper 50s on the plains with upper 40s to around 50 degrees along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and isolated thunderstorms will produce a 0.05-0.30” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong/severe shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.30-0.60” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, stationary thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 1.20” total in under 60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Similar conditions remain in place on Sunday. However, slightly less overall moisture will decrease storm potential slightly across the I-25 corridor. The timing of storm chances will once again be in the early afternoon, lasting into the early evening before any shower activity clears out for the rest of the evening and overnight. Depending on the amount of residual moisture from today will dictate the threat level tomorrow with at least a LOW chance for Messages at this time. Minimal overall change Monday as high temperatures remain in the low to mid 80s. A continued chance for afternoon and early evening showers/thunderstorms, with a slight chance some of those storms produce brief heavy rainfall, likely keeping a LOW chance for Messages. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 100 PM TO 700 PM 0.05" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) MOD Arapahoe 100 PM TO 700 PM 0.05" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) MOD Boulder 100 PM TO 700 PM 0.05" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (20%) MOD Broomfield 100 PM TO 700 PM 0.05" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (20%) MOD Denver 100 PM TO 700 PM 0.05" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) MOD Douglas 100 PM TO 700 PM 0.05" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (20%) MOD Jefferson 100 PM TO 700 PM 0.05" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (20%) MOD Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 100 PM TO 700 PM 0.05" (70%) to 0.3" (35%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 700 PM 0.05" (70%) to 0.3" (35%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 700 PM 0.05" (70%) to 0.3" (35%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 weeks, 1 day

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 923 AM Fri June 7, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Hot today with a slight chance for high based showers/isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. West to northwesterly flow aloft will continue to dominate today, leading to hot and mostly dry conditions this afternoon and into the evening. Dew points will likely mix out during the day today, dropping into the mid to upper 30s, effectively limiting precipitation during the day today as most rainfall will likely struggle to reach the surface. The best chance for any shower activity within the District this afternoon will be between 1-8pm with a few lingering showers possible through midnight. Storm motions will be west to east between 10-15mph which will also limit point rainfall amounts. With temperatures in the 90s, and dew points in the 30s, expect some gusty winds with any rainfall that evaporates with some gusts as high as 50mph under dissipating storms. Skies will gradually clear later this evening with dry conditions expected through the overnight as temperatures drop into the upper 50s to around 60 degrees on the plains with around 50 degrees along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and isolated thunderstorms will produce a T-0.10” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.10-0.20” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 0.4” total in under 30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Temperatures tomorrow will decrease into the low 80s in the afternoon. A better chance for showers/isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening. A slight chance one or two of these storms become severe with hail up to 1.0” and gusty winds up to 60mph. This will also result in at least a LOW chance of heavy rainfall for the District. Any storm activity tomorrow is expected to clear out by 8pm with clear skies through the late evening and overnight. Similar conditions remain in place on Sunday. However, slightly less overall moisture will decrease storm potential across the I-25 corridor. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Arapahoe 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Boulder 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Broomfield 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Denver 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Douglas 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Jefferson 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 weeks, 2 days

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 913 AM Thu June 6, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Hot and dry conditions persist today Hot and dry conditions prevail across the District as a heat wave remains parked over the Desert Southwest. Today will be sunny with afternoon temperatures climbing into the in upper 80s to low 90s, dew points in the mid 30s, and precipitable water (PWAT) values around 0.65”. Westerly upper-level flow will inhibit thunderstorm development again today, with dry conditions expected to continue overnight. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Precipitation is not expected in the District today. A LOOK AHEAD: On Friday, a weak upper-level disturbance and elevated atmospheric moisture will promote isolated thunderstorm activity across the High Plains. Afternoon temperatures will soar into the mid 90s ahead of storm initiation. Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the evening, then subside overnight. The active pattern is expected to continue into the weekend. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 weeks, 3 days

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 940 AM Wed June 5, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Hot and dry weather emerges across the District Hot and dry conditions prevail across the Front Range Urban Corridor as a heat wave anchors over the Desert Southwest. Today will be sunny with afternoon temperatures soaring into the in the 90s, dew points in the low to mid 30s, and precipitable water (PWAT) values around 0.45”. Westerly upper-level flow and a very dry mid-level will inhibit thunderstorm development, supporting dry and breezy conditions across the District. Winds will gradually subside after sunset with calm conditions overnight. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Precipitation is not expected in the District today. A LOOK AHEAD: Hot and dry summer weather continues Thursday under sunny skies with afternoon temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s. On Friday, a weak upper-level disturbance and elevated atmospheric moisture will promote isolated thunderstorm activity across the High Plains. An active pattern is expected through the weekend along with much needed cooler temperatures. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 weeks, 4 days

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 938 AM Tue June 4, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Dry and mostly sunny conditions across the District today High pressure ridging will continue building over the four corners region today, supporting dry conditions across the Front Range Urban Corridor through Friday. Today will be partly sunny with Afternoon highs in the mid 80s, dew points in the mid 30s, and precipitable water (PWAT) values around 0.6”. Westerly upper-level flow will inhibit thunderstorm development, supporting dry and breezy conditions across the District. Winds will gradually subside after sunset with calm conditions prevailing overnight. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Precipitation is not expected in the District today. A LOOK AHEAD: Hot and dry conditions emerge Wednesday under sunny skies with afternoon temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s. Precipitation is not expected in the District tomorrow or Thursday. The next disturbance will arrive Friday, supporting slight chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 weeks, 5 days

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 924 AM Mon June 3, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Slight chances for isolated afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms. High pressure ridging will begin building over the four corners region today, supporting hot and mostly dry conditions across the Front Range Urban Corridor throughout Friday. Today, skies will be partly cloudy with afternoon highs climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s, dew points in the mid 30s, and precipitable water (PWAT) values around 0.65”. A weak upper-level perturbation will support a slight chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Quick storm motions around 20-25 mph, moving west to east, will result in minimal rainfall amounts. Storms will begin clearing by mid evening, with precipitation concluding by the late evening. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce up to 0.10” total in 15-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: There is a slight chance a stronger thunderstorm will produce briefly moderate rainfall up to 0.15” of rainfall in up to 10-15 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Tomorrow will be partly sunny with highs in the mid-80s. Westerly upper-level flow will inhibit thunderstorm development, supporting dry and breezy conditions with wind gusts up to 30 mph. Winds will gradually subside after sunset with calm conditions prevailing overnight. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.15" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.15" (5%) NONE Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.15" (5%) NONE Broomfield 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.15" (5%) NONE Denver 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.15" (5%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.15" (5%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.15" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.15" (5%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.15" (5%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.15" (5%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

3 weeks, 6 days

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 930 AM Sun June 2, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Hot today with a slight chance for high based showers/isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. West to southwesterly flow aloft will continue today, leading to mostly dry conditions this afternoon and early evening. Dew points will likely mix out during the day today, dropping to around 30 degrees, effectively limiting precipitation during the day today as most rainfall will struggle to reach the surface. Any storm activity will likely remain north of the I-70 corridor, with the best chance between 1-7pm. Skies will gradually clear later this evening with dry conditions expected through the overnight as temperatures drop into the 50s on the plains with upper 40s to around 50 degrees along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and isolated thunderstorms will produce a T-0.05” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.05-0.20” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 0.4” total in under 30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Temperatures tomorrow will increase slightly into the upper 80s to low 90s in the afternoon. Another slight chance for a few scattered high-based showers/isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening, once again, most if not all precipitation will likely struggle to reach the surface. Tuesday will likely dry out completely as high temperatures remain in the upper 80s to low 90s. Even warmer Wednesday as high temperatures reach the low 90s under sunny skies. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Boulder 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Broomfield 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Denver 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

4 weeks

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