June 2024 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 943 AM Thu June 13, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Hot, with isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. It’s going to be another sweltering hot and sunny day as the heat wave remains parked over the Four-Corners region. Above normal afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 90s are expected broadly across the District, with some areas exceeding 100°F. Dewpoints will be in the mid 30s, with precipitable water (PWAT) values around 0.60”. Isolated afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms are possible as a weak upper-level disturbance moves across the High Plains. Dry and hot surface conditions will encourage light rainfall and gusty down bursts up to 60 mph beneath storms. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical storms will produce a trace to 0.10” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow moving strong thunderstorm may be capable of producing up to 0.50” in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: The heat wave begins to recede tomorrow with the arrival of a cold front and cut-off upper level low. Temperatures will reach the mid 80s, dew points in the 50s, and precipitable water (PWAT) values around 1.00”. These conditions support chances for scattered to widespread organized convection developing by the afternoon. A few storms may be capable of producing heavy rainfall across the District. Storms will quickly move northeast, exiting the area by the early evening. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Arapahoe 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Boulder 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Broomfield 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Denver 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (20%) to 0.05" (15%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

6 months, 2 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 354 PM Wed June 12, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed along the foothills Showers and thunderstorms have developed along portions of the foothills and are moving into the District. Afternoon temperatures have reached the mid 90s, dew points in the mid 30s. Upper level support remains weak, so organized convection is not expected. These relatively dry conditions will favor isolated storms capable of producing light rainfall and gusty winds. Storm motions will be from west to east around 20 mph. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical storms will produce a trace to 0.10” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow moving strong thunderstorm may be capable of producing up to 0.50” in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Thursday will be similar as sweltering conditions persist. Highs will once again reach the mid 90s under sunny skies, followed by slight chances for isolated afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms. The heat wave begins to recede Friday with the arrival of a cold front. Highs will reach the mid to upper 80s with chances for scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms developing by the afternoon. A few storms may become severe, producing gusty outflows exceeding 58 mph and/or hail greater than 1 inch in diameter. The active pattern continues Saturday as highs reach the upper 80s to low 90s with slight chances for isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 330 PM TO 700 PM Trace (50%) to 0.05" (30%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Arapahoe 330 PM TO 700 PM Trace (50%) to 0.05" (30%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Boulder 330 PM TO 700 PM Trace (50%) to 0.05" (30%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Broomfield 330 PM TO 700 PM Trace (50%) to 0.05" (30%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Denver 330 PM TO 700 PM Trace (50%) to 0.05" (30%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Douglas 330 PM TO 700 PM Trace (50%) to 0.05" (30%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Jefferson 330 PM TO 700 PM Trace (50%) to 0.05" (30%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 330 PM TO 700 PM Trace (50%) to 0.05" (30%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Douglas 330 PM TO 700 PM Trace (50%) to 0.05" (30%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Jefferson 330 PM TO 700 PM Trace (50%) to 0.05" (30%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

6 months, 2 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 924 AM Wed June 12, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Hot and dry conditions across the district today Today will be exceptionally hot as a heat wave advances north into the region. Afternoon temperatures will soar into the low to mid 90s under clear and sunny skies, dew points in the low to mid 30s, and precipitable water (PWAT) values around 0.70”. Dry air aloft and poor upper-level support will inhibit storm development. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rainfall is not expected in the District today A LOOK AHEAD: Thursday will be similar as sweltering conditions persist. Highs will once again reach the mid 90s under sunny skies, followed by slight chances for isolated afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms. The heat wave begins to recede Friday with the arrival of a cold front. Highs will reach the mid to upper 80s with chances for scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms developing by the afternoon. A few storms may become severe, producing gusty outflows exceeding 58 mph and/or hail greater than 1 inch in diameter. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

6 months, 2 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1001 AM Tue June 11, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Slight chances for isolated afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms Drier air aloft is moving into Colorado from the northwest today as warmer surface conditions continue to build into the region from the south. Afternoon highs will reach the mid to upper 80s, dew points in the upper 40s to low 50s, and precipitable water (PWAT) values around 0.85”. These temperatures and moisture values favor heavy rainfall across the District, but a drying mid-level and weak upper-level flow will discourage organized convection. Due to these conflicting forces, there is still some uncertainty about the rainfall forecast today. However, heavy precipitation is still possible if afternoon orographic convection sufficiently erodes the capping inversion. If this scenario resolves, isolated storms are possible across the District, with the best chances south of i-70. Storm motions will be from west to east around 10 mph. Storms will begin clearing by the early evening, with precipitation concluding by the mid to late evening. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers could produce 0.25”-0.50” total in 15-30 minutes. Stronger storms have the potential to produce 0.50-0.75” in 15-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Stronger, slow-moving storms may produce moderate to briefly heavy rainfall up to 1.50” in 60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Tomorrow will be exceptionally hot as a ridge of highs pressure advances north. Afternoon temperatures will soar into the mid 90s under sunny skies. Thursday will be similar as sweltering conditions persist. Highs will once again reach the mid 90s under sunny skies, followed by slight chances for isolated afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.25" (15%) to 0.5" (10%) to 0.75" (5%) LOW Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (15%) to 0.75" (10%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.25" (15%) to 0.5" (10%) to 0.75" (5%) LOW Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.25" (15%) to 0.5" (10%) to 0.75" (5%) LOW Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (15%) to 0.75" (10%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (15%) to 0.75" (10%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (15%) to 0.75" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 200 PM TO 700 PM 0.25" (15%) to 0.5" (10%) to 0.75" (5%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (15%) to 0.75" (10%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (15%) to 0.75" (10%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

6 months, 2 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1106 PM Mon June 10, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 11:59PM Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 11:59pm as the threat of heavy rain has come to an end. A few moderate to strong storms have impacted portions of the District late this evening. A few showers with some thunder persist for southeastern portions of the District and will continue to meander southeast and out of the District over the next hour or so. Skies will gradually clear through the rest of the evening with clear skies expected during the overnight. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 50s on the plains with low 50s along the foothills. Excess moisture at the surface could result in foggy conditions during the morning hours tomorrow which should quickly burn off after sunrise. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No additional rainfall is expected within the District once these showers move out. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A shower or isolated thunderstorm is able to develop and would have the potential to produce between a trace and 0.25" total in 10-30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Adams County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

6 months, 2 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 934 PM Mon June 10, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED EFFECTIVE UNTIL 11:59 PM Message 1’s have been issued for the entire District effective until 11:59pm as the threat of heavy rainfall has returned. Gusts fronts from stronger storm development has initiated storms around the Boulder/NW Jeffco area this evening. These storms are very pulse like and have produced brief heavy rainfall just outside of the District between 0.40-0.50” in 10-15 minutes. This has resulted in the reissuance of Message 1s across the District as additional storms have started to fire along norther portions of the District. Storms that develop will contain moderate to brief heavy rainfall at times, with the largest threat being a quick 0.5” in 10-15 minutes, rather than any long-lasting rainfall. Storms motions have been minimal as most storms have been forming along outflow boundaries. General storm motions will continue to be SE between 10-15mph, with erratic storm movement likley to continue. By midnight skies should gradually clear as skies stabilize through the overnight. Overnight lows will drop into the mid to upper 50s with some patchy fog possible in the early morning hours. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and isolated thunderstorms will produce a 0.05-0.25” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong/severe shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.25-0.75” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, stationary thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 1.75” total in under 60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1159 PM MON 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM MON 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1159 PM MON 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM MON 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1159 PM MON 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM MON 0.05" (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.75" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM MON 0.05" (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.75" (20%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1159 PM MON 0.05" (80%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.75" (20%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM MON 0.05" (80%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.75" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM MON 0.05" (80%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.75" (20%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

6 months, 2 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 813 PM Mon June 10, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Additional storm development to the north could impact portions of the District later this evening. Strong storms to the northeast have produced gust fronts across norther Colorado this evening. A strong storm has initiated in the Fort Collins Area and could potentially produce additional storms favoring northern portions of the District over the next few hours. These storms have continued to be moderate to strong with isolated pockets of heavy rain. Storm movement has remained quick, between 15-25mph helping limit point rainfall amounts. However, a stronger storm formed along a gust front will still have the potential to produce a quick 0.5”-0.75” in 10-30 minutes. This has resulted in a LOW chance Messages will be issued over the next couple of hours, possibly extending until midnight. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and isolated thunderstorms will produce a 0.05-0.25” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong/severe shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.25-0.75” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, stationary thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 1.75” total in under 60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Skies will gradually clear overnight with warmer temperatures tomorrow as highs are expected to be well into the 80s. A slight chance for showers/isoalted thunderstorms tomorrow, mainly for areas along and south of the Palmer Divide. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1159 PM MON 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM MON 0.05" (60%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.75" (20%) MOD Boulder Current TO 1159 PM MON 0.05" (60%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.75" (20%) MOD Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM MON 0.05" (60%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.75" (20%) MOD Denver Current TO 1159 PM MON 0.05" (60%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.75" (20%) MOD Douglas Current TO 1159 PM MON 0.05" (30%) to 0.25" (15%) to 0.75" (10%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM MON 0.05" (30%) to 0.25" (15%) to 0.75" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1159 PM MON 0.05" (60%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.75" (20%) MOD Douglas Current TO 1159 PM MON 0.05" (30%) to 0.25" (15%) to 0.75" (10%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM MON 0.05" (30%) to 0.25" (15%) to 0.75" (10%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

6 months, 2 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 343 PM Mon June 10, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED EFFECTIVE UNTIL 8:30 PM Message 1’s have been issued for the entire District effective until 8:30pm as the threat of heavy rainfall with a slight chance for severe storms, favoring eastern portions of the District. Sever storms may contain large hail up to 1.0” and gusty winds 60+ mph. The best chance for any shower/thunderstorm activity within the District will be between NOW-8:30pm with a few lingering showers possible through 9:00-10:00pm. The best chance for heavy rainfall will be during this initial round of storms, with storm intensities decreasing into the evening hours. Storm motions will be northwest to southeast between 10-20mph which could limit point rainfall amounts. However, outflow boundaries will likely produce some erratic storm movement which will increase chances for brief heavy rainfall. Skies will clear this evening with dry conditions expected through the overnight as temperatures drop into the mid to upper 50s on the plains with upper 40s to around 50 degrees along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and isolated thunderstorms will produce a 0.05-0.40” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong/severe shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.40-1.20” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, stationary thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 2.25” total in under 60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 830 PM Current TO 800 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 830 PM Current TO 800 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 830 PM Current TO 800 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 830 PM Current TO 800 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 830 PM Current TO 800 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 830 PM Current TO 800 PM DIA 1 Current TO 830 PM Current TO 800 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 830 PM Current TO 800 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 830 PM Current TO 800 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 830 PM Current TO 800 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 830 PM Current TO 800 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 830 PM Current TO 800 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 830 PM MON 0.05" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1.2" (15%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 830 PM MON 0.05" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1.2" (15%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 830 PM MON 0.05" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1.2" (15%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 830 PM MON 0.05" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1.2" (15%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 830 PM MON 0.05" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1.2" (15%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 830 PM MON 0.05" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1.2" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 830 PM MON 0.05" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1.2" (15%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 830 PM MON 0.05" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 830 PM MON 0.05" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 830 PM MON 0.05" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (25%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

6 months, 2 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 921 AM Mon June 10, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Slightly warmer today with another chance for afternoon and early evening showers with possible isolated moderate to strong thunderstorms. High-pressure continues to build over the District this morning, slowly moving easterly resulting in upper-level winds shifting northwesterly this afternoon. This shift in upper-level dynamics will effectively help storm motions today from the NW to SE between 10-20mph, limiting any long-lasting moderate to heavy rainfall. However, with dew points still in the mid to upper 50s, a couple of stronger storms will have the potential to produce outflow boundaries today, bringing another chance for some erratic/stationary storm motions leading to another chance for a few isolated heavy showers this afternoon and into the early evening. The best chance for storm activity this afternoon and early evening will be between 2-9pm. The initial round of storms will likely be the strongest during the afternoon today, bringing the best chance of impactful rainfall producing storms, possibly severe, with another chance for an additional round of showers in the evening before skies clear through the overnight. Temperatures overnight will drop into the upper 50s to around 60 degrees on the plains with upper 40s to around 50 degrees along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and isolated thunderstorms will produce a 0.05-0.40” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong/severe shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.40-0.80” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, stationary thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 1.60” total in under 30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Conditions start to dry out Tuesday with just a typical chance for springtime afternoon showers/isolated thunderstorms. Wednesday is expected to be even drier with minimal, if any, chance for precipitation at this time across the District. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Arapahoe 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Boulder 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Broomfield 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Denver 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Douglas 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Jefferson 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Douglas 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Jefferson 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

6 months, 2 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 825 PM Sun June 9, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9:00 PM Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 9pm as the threat of heavy rain has come to an end. Stronger storms that formed inside the District have dissipated and are no longer a threat. A few lingering showers are moving off the foothills currently and are struggling to hold together as the airmass above the District is fairly stable at this time. A few showers could persist over the next couple of hours bringing some additional rainfall, however the threat for any heavy rainfall has ended as temperatures also have cooled into the 60s. Skies will gradually clear through the rest of the evening with clear skies expected during the overnight. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 50s on the plains with low 50s along the foothills. Excess moisture at the surface could result in foggy conditions during the morning hours tomorrow which should quickly burn off after sunrise. Tomorrows will be similar with another chance for moderate to heavy rain in the afternoon and early evening as thunderstorms once again impact the District. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: A few lingering showers will have potenial to produce T-0.20" total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: In the event an isolated stronger shower or thunderstorm develops, 0.20"-0.40” total is possible in 10-30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM DIA 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1100 PM SUN Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 1100 PM SUN Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Boulder Current TO 1100 PM SUN Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 1100 PM SUN Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Denver Current TO 1100 PM SUN Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1100 PM SUN Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1100 PM SUN Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1100 PM SUN Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1100 PM SUN Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1100 PM SUN Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

6 months, 2 weeks

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