June 2024 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 813 PM Mon June 10, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Additional storm development to the north could impact portions of the District later this evening. Strong storms to the northeast have produced gust fronts across norther Colorado this evening. A strong storm has initiated in the Fort Collins Area and could potentially produce additional storms favoring northern portions of the District over the next few hours. These storms have continued to be moderate to strong with isolated pockets of heavy rain. Storm movement has remained quick, between 15-25mph helping limit point rainfall amounts. However, a stronger storm formed along a gust front will still have the potential to produce a quick 0.5”-0.75” in 10-30 minutes. This has resulted in a LOW chance Messages will be issued over the next couple of hours, possibly extending until midnight. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and isolated thunderstorms will produce a 0.05-0.25” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong/severe shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.25-0.75” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, stationary thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 1.75” total in under 60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Skies will gradually clear overnight with warmer temperatures tomorrow as highs are expected to be well into the 80s. A slight chance for showers/isoalted thunderstorms tomorrow, mainly for areas along and south of the Palmer Divide. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1159 PM MON 0.05" (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM MON 0.05" (60%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.75" (20%) MOD Boulder Current TO 1159 PM MON 0.05" (60%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.75" (20%) MOD Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM MON 0.05" (60%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.75" (20%) MOD Denver Current TO 1159 PM MON 0.05" (60%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.75" (20%) MOD Douglas Current TO 1159 PM MON 0.05" (30%) to 0.25" (15%) to 0.75" (10%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM MON 0.05" (30%) to 0.25" (15%) to 0.75" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1159 PM MON 0.05" (60%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.75" (20%) MOD Douglas Current TO 1159 PM MON 0.05" (30%) to 0.25" (15%) to 0.75" (10%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM MON 0.05" (30%) to 0.25" (15%) to 0.75" (10%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 weeks, 3 days

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 343 PM Mon June 10, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED EFFECTIVE UNTIL 8:30 PM Message 1’s have been issued for the entire District effective until 8:30pm as the threat of heavy rainfall with a slight chance for severe storms, favoring eastern portions of the District. Sever storms may contain large hail up to 1.0” and gusty winds 60+ mph. The best chance for any shower/thunderstorm activity within the District will be between NOW-8:30pm with a few lingering showers possible through 9:00-10:00pm. The best chance for heavy rainfall will be during this initial round of storms, with storm intensities decreasing into the evening hours. Storm motions will be northwest to southeast between 10-20mph which could limit point rainfall amounts. However, outflow boundaries will likely produce some erratic storm movement which will increase chances for brief heavy rainfall. Skies will clear this evening with dry conditions expected through the overnight as temperatures drop into the mid to upper 50s on the plains with upper 40s to around 50 degrees along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and isolated thunderstorms will produce a 0.05-0.40” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong/severe shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.40-1.20” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, stationary thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 2.25” total in under 60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 830 PM Current TO 800 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 830 PM Current TO 800 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 830 PM Current TO 800 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 830 PM Current TO 800 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 830 PM Current TO 800 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 830 PM Current TO 800 PM DIA 1 Current TO 830 PM Current TO 800 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 830 PM Current TO 800 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 830 PM Current TO 800 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 830 PM Current TO 800 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 830 PM Current TO 800 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 830 PM Current TO 800 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 830 PM MON 0.05" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1.2" (15%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 830 PM MON 0.05" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1.2" (15%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 830 PM MON 0.05" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1.2" (15%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 830 PM MON 0.05" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1.2" (15%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 830 PM MON 0.05" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1.2" (15%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 830 PM MON 0.05" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1.2" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 830 PM MON 0.05" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1.2" (15%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 830 PM MON 0.05" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 830 PM MON 0.05" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 830 PM MON 0.05" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (25%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 weeks, 3 days

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 921 AM Mon June 10, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Slightly warmer today with another chance for afternoon and early evening showers with possible isolated moderate to strong thunderstorms. High-pressure continues to build over the District this morning, slowly moving easterly resulting in upper-level winds shifting northwesterly this afternoon. This shift in upper-level dynamics will effectively help storm motions today from the NW to SE between 10-20mph, limiting any long-lasting moderate to heavy rainfall. However, with dew points still in the mid to upper 50s, a couple of stronger storms will have the potential to produce outflow boundaries today, bringing another chance for some erratic/stationary storm motions leading to another chance for a few isolated heavy showers this afternoon and into the early evening. The best chance for storm activity this afternoon and early evening will be between 2-9pm. The initial round of storms will likely be the strongest during the afternoon today, bringing the best chance of impactful rainfall producing storms, possibly severe, with another chance for an additional round of showers in the evening before skies clear through the overnight. Temperatures overnight will drop into the upper 50s to around 60 degrees on the plains with upper 40s to around 50 degrees along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and isolated thunderstorms will produce a 0.05-0.40” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong/severe shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.40-0.80” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, stationary thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 1.60” total in under 30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Conditions start to dry out Tuesday with just a typical chance for springtime afternoon showers/isolated thunderstorms. Wednesday is expected to be even drier with minimal, if any, chance for precipitation at this time across the District. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Arapahoe 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Boulder 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Broomfield 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Denver 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Douglas 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Jefferson 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Douglas 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Jefferson 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.05" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 weeks, 3 days

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 825 PM Sun June 9, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9:00 PM Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 9pm as the threat of heavy rain has come to an end. Stronger storms that formed inside the District have dissipated and are no longer a threat. A few lingering showers are moving off the foothills currently and are struggling to hold together as the airmass above the District is fairly stable at this time. A few showers could persist over the next couple of hours bringing some additional rainfall, however the threat for any heavy rainfall has ended as temperatures also have cooled into the 60s. Skies will gradually clear through the rest of the evening with clear skies expected during the overnight. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 50s on the plains with low 50s along the foothills. Excess moisture at the surface could result in foggy conditions during the morning hours tomorrow which should quickly burn off after sunrise. Tomorrows will be similar with another chance for moderate to heavy rain in the afternoon and early evening as thunderstorms once again impact the District. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: A few lingering showers will have potenial to produce T-0.20" total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: In the event an isolated stronger shower or thunderstorm develops, 0.20"-0.40” total is possible in 10-30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM DIA 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1100 PM SUN Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 1100 PM SUN Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Boulder Current TO 1100 PM SUN Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 1100 PM SUN Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Denver Current TO 1100 PM SUN Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1100 PM SUN Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1100 PM SUN Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1100 PM SUN Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1100 PM SUN Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1100 PM SUN Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 weeks, 4 days

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 250 PM Sun June 9, 2024 Forecaster: Aaron O ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED EFFECTIVE UNTIL 9:00 PM Message 1’s have been issued for the entire District effective until 9:00pm as the threat for heavy rainfall with the potential for severe storms across the District this afternoon and evening. The best chance for any shower/thunderstorm activity within the District will be between now-8pm with a few lingering showers possible through midnight. The best chance for heavy rainfall will be throughout the entire message times. Storm motions will be nearly non-exsistant with pulse like thunderstorms producing some longer lasting moderate to heavy rain. Outflow boundaries will also produce additinal erratic storm movement which will only increase chances for heavy rainfall through the afternoon and into the evening. Lack of upper-level support suggest slow moving storms with a low chance of severe weather today, mainly gusty winds 60+ mph and hail up to 1.0” in diameter likely favoring the plains areas of the district. Severe storms will also contain isolated heavy rainfall with the largest threat being stationary heavy rainfall creating a quick 0.5-1.0” in 10-15 minutes. Skies will clear this evening and overnight as temperatures drop into the mid to upper 50s in the plains and low to mid 50s along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce rainfall of a 0.10”-0.50” total in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong showers have the potential to produce rainfall of 0.50”-1.50” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Strong stationery, or training of thunderstorms has the potential to produce up to 2.25” in under 60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME the City of Aurora 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 830 PM Arapahoe County 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 830 PM DIA 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 830 PM Denver County 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 830 PM Adams County 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 830 PM Douglas County 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 830 PM Broomfield County 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 830 PM Jefferson County 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 830 PM Boulder County 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 830 PM Arvada 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 830 PM Wheat Ridge 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 830 PM Lakewood 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 830 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 1200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Arapahoe 1200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Boulder 1200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Broomfield 1200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Denver 1200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Douglas 1200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson 1200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 1200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (70%) to 0.5" (35%) to 1.5" (15%) ISSUED Douglas 1200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (70%) to 0.5" (35%) to 1.5" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson 1200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (70%) to 0.5" (35%) to 1.5" (15%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 weeks, 4 days

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 924 AM Sun June 9, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Slightly cooler than seasonable temperatures today with another chance for afternoon and evening showers and isolated thunderstorms. High-pressure starts to build today as temperatures struggle to reach 80 degrees this afternoon. Dew points currently in the 50s and will likely hold during the day today. This will enhance the threat of brief heavy rainfall during the afternoon and early evening before skies gradually clear through the overnight tonight. The best chance for moderate to heavy shower/thunderstorm activity within the District will be between 2-8pm with a few lingering showers possible through midnight. The best chance for heavy rainfall will be during the initial round of storms, with storm intensities decreasing after sunset. Storm motions will be minimal, with most storms behaving in a pulse up manner with little to no actual movement, leading to an increased chance for isolated heavy rainfall within the District. A low chance remains for severe weather today, mainly for gusty winds of 60+ mph and hail up to 1.0” in diameter, favoring areas east of I-25 at this time. Skies will gradually clear overnight and into daybreak Monday as temperatures drop into the mid to upper 50s on the plains with upper 40s to around 50 degrees along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and isolated thunderstorms will produce a 0.05-0.30” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong/severe shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.30-0.60” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, stationary thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 1.20” total in under 60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Minimal overall change Monday as high temperatures remain in the low to mid 80s. A continued chance for afternoon and early evening showers/thunderstorms, with a slight chance some of those storms produce brief heavy rainfall, likely keeping a LOW chance for Messages. Conditions start to dry out Tuesday with just a typical chance for springtime afternoon showers/isolated thunderstorms. Wednesday is expected to be even drier with minimal, if any, chance for precipitation at this time across the District. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) MOD Arapahoe 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) MOD Boulder 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (25%) MOD Broomfield 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (25%) MOD Denver 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) MOD Douglas 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (25%) MOD Jefferson 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (25%) MOD Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW Douglas 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW Jefferson 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 weeks, 4 days

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 648 PM Sat June 8, 2024 Forecaster: Aaron O ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8:00 PM Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 8pm as the threat of heavy rain has come to an end. Stronger storms that formed just outside of the District have moved east at this time, with only lingering light showers moving off the foothills, favoring northern portions of the District. Storm motions continue to move between 20-30mph helping limit point rainfall amounts. Atmospheric conditions will remain capped this evening and through the overnight hours, supporting little to no additional chances for precipitation once these residual showers/isolated thunderstorms move through the District. Skies will gradually clear through the rest of the evening with clear skies expected during the overnight. Overnight lows will drop into the mid to upper 50s on the plains with upper 40s to around 50 degrees along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: A few lingering showers will have potenial to produce T-0.10" total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: In the event an isolated stronger shower or thunderstorm develops, 0.10"-0.30” total is possible in 10-30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM DIA 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Current TO 900 PM SAT Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Current TO 900 PM SAT Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Current TO 900 PM SAT Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Current TO 900 PM SAT Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Current TO 900 PM SAT Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Current TO 900 PM SAT Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Current TO 900 PM SAT Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Current TO 900 PM SAT Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Current TO 900 PM SAT Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Current TO 900 PM SAT Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 weeks, 5 days

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1159 AM Sat June 8, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED EFFECTIVE UNTIL 8:00 PM Message 1’s have been issued for the entire District effective until 8:00pm as the threat for heavy rainfall with the potential for severe storms across the District this afternoon and early evening. The best chance for any shower/thunderstorm activity within the District will be between noon-8pm with a few lingering showers possible through 10pm. The best chance for heavy rainfall will be during the initial round of storms, with storm intensities decreasing into the evening hours. Storm motions will be west to east between 20-25mph which should also limit point rainfall amounts. However, outflow boundaries could produce erratic storm movement which will increase chances for brief heavy rainfall. Good upper-level support suggests at least a moderate chance for severe weather today, mainly for gusty winds 60+ mph and hail up to 1.0” in diameter likely favoring areas east of I-25. Severe storms will also contain isolated heavy rainfall with the largest threat being a quick 0.5” in 10-15min rather than any long-lasting heavy rainfall. Skies will clear this evening with dry conditions expected through the overnight as temperatures drop into the mid to upper 50s on the plains with upper 40s to around 50 degrees along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and isolated thunderstorms will produce a 0.05-0.30” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong/severe shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.30-0.60” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, stationary thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 1.20” total in under 60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Arvada 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 100 PM TO 700 PM the City of Aurora 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 100 PM TO 700 PM Denver County 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 100 PM TO 700 PM Arapahoe County 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 100 PM TO 700 PM DIA 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 100 PM TO 700 PM Adams County 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 100 PM TO 700 PM Douglas County 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 100 PM TO 700 PM Broomfield County 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 100 PM TO 700 PM Jefferson County 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 100 PM TO 700 PM Boulder County 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 100 PM TO 700 PM Wheat Ridge 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 100 PM TO 700 PM Lakewood 1 1200 PM TO 800 PM 100 PM TO 700 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 1200 PM TO 800 PM 0.05" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) ISSUED Arapahoe 1200 PM TO 800 PM 0.05" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) ISSUED Boulder 1200 PM TO 800 PM 0.05" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) ISSUED Broomfield 1200 PM TO 800 PM 0.05" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) ISSUED Denver 1200 PM TO 800 PM 0.05" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) ISSUED Douglas 1200 PM TO 800 PM 0.05" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson 1200 PM TO 800 PM 0.05" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 1200 PM TO 800 PM 0.05" (70%) to 0.3" (35%) to 0.6" (15%) ISSUED Douglas 1200 PM TO 800 PM 0.05" (70%) to 0.3" (35%) to 0.6" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson 1200 PM TO 800 PM 0.05" (70%) to 0.3" (35%) to 0.6" (15%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 weeks, 5 days

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 927 AM Sat June 8, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Cooler today with a better chance for afternoon and early evening showers/isolated thunderstorms. Westerly flow aloft will dominate over the region today, leading to warm and dry conditions this morning. Dew points currently around 50 degrees will likely hold during the day today, likely enhancing the threat for brief heavy rainfall during the afternoon and early evening before skies gradually clear through the later evening. The best chance for any shower/thunderstorm activity within the District will be between 1-7pm with a few lingering showers possible through 9pm. The best chance for heavy rainfall will be during the initial round of storms, with storm intensities decreasing into the evening hours. Storm motions will be west to east between 15-20mph which will also limit point rainfall amounts. Good upper-level support suggests at least a moderate chance for severe weather today, mainly for gusty winds 60+ mph and hail up to 1.0” in diameter. Severe storms will also contain isolated heavy rainfall with the largest threat being a quick 0.5” in 10-15min rather than any long-lasting heavy rainfall. Skies will gradually clear later this evening with dry conditions expected through the overnight as temperatures drop into the mid to upper 50s on the plains with upper 40s to around 50 degrees along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and isolated thunderstorms will produce a 0.05-0.30” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong/severe shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.30-0.60” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, stationary thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 1.20” total in under 60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Similar conditions remain in place on Sunday. However, slightly less overall moisture will decrease storm potential slightly across the I-25 corridor. The timing of storm chances will once again be in the early afternoon, lasting into the early evening before any shower activity clears out for the rest of the evening and overnight. Depending on the amount of residual moisture from today will dictate the threat level tomorrow with at least a LOW chance for Messages at this time. Minimal overall change Monday as high temperatures remain in the low to mid 80s. A continued chance for afternoon and early evening showers/thunderstorms, with a slight chance some of those storms produce brief heavy rainfall, likely keeping a LOW chance for Messages. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 100 PM TO 700 PM 0.05" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) MOD Arapahoe 100 PM TO 700 PM 0.05" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) MOD Boulder 100 PM TO 700 PM 0.05" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (20%) MOD Broomfield 100 PM TO 700 PM 0.05" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (20%) MOD Denver 100 PM TO 700 PM 0.05" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) MOD Douglas 100 PM TO 700 PM 0.05" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (20%) MOD Jefferson 100 PM TO 700 PM 0.05" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (20%) MOD Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 100 PM TO 700 PM 0.05" (70%) to 0.3" (35%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 700 PM 0.05" (70%) to 0.3" (35%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 700 PM 0.05" (70%) to 0.3" (35%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 weeks, 5 days

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 923 AM Fri June 7, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Hot today with a slight chance for high based showers/isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. West to northwesterly flow aloft will continue to dominate today, leading to hot and mostly dry conditions this afternoon and into the evening. Dew points will likely mix out during the day today, dropping into the mid to upper 30s, effectively limiting precipitation during the day today as most rainfall will likely struggle to reach the surface. The best chance for any shower activity within the District this afternoon will be between 1-8pm with a few lingering showers possible through midnight. Storm motions will be west to east between 10-15mph which will also limit point rainfall amounts. With temperatures in the 90s, and dew points in the 30s, expect some gusty winds with any rainfall that evaporates with some gusts as high as 50mph under dissipating storms. Skies will gradually clear later this evening with dry conditions expected through the overnight as temperatures drop into the upper 50s to around 60 degrees on the plains with around 50 degrees along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and isolated thunderstorms will produce a T-0.10” total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.10-0.20” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 0.4” total in under 30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Temperatures tomorrow will decrease into the low 80s in the afternoon. A better chance for showers/isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening. A slight chance one or two of these storms become severe with hail up to 1.0” and gusty winds up to 60mph. This will also result in at least a LOW chance of heavy rainfall for the District. Any storm activity tomorrow is expected to clear out by 8pm with clear skies through the late evening and overnight. Similar conditions remain in place on Sunday. However, slightly less overall moisture will decrease storm potential across the I-25 corridor. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Arapahoe 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Boulder 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Broomfield 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Denver 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Douglas 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Jefferson 1200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 weeks, 6 days

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