Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 930 AM Sun June 2, 2024
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Hot today with a slight chance for high based showers/isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening.
West to southwesterly flow aloft will continue today, leading to
mostly dry conditions this afternoon and early evening. Dew points
will likely mix out during the day today, dropping to around 30
degrees, effectively limiting precipitation during the day today as
most rainfall will struggle to reach the surface. Any storm activity
will likely remain north of the I-70 corridor, with the best chance
between 1-7pm. Skies will gradually clear later this evening with dry
conditions expected through the overnight as temperatures drop into
the 50s on the plains with upper 40s to around 50 degrees along the
foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and isolated
thunderstorms will produce a T-0.05” total in 10-30 minutes. A
moderate shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.05-0.20” total in 10-30
minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger thunderstorm, or training of
thunderstorm cells will have the potential to produce up to 0.4”
total in under 30 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Temperatures tomorrow will increase slightly into the
upper 80s to low 90s in the afternoon. Another slight chance for a few
scattered high-based showers/isolated thunderstorms during the
afternoon and early evening, once again, most if not all precipitation
will likely struggle to reach the surface. Tuesday will likely dry out
completely as high temperatures remain in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Even warmer Wednesday as high temperatures reach the low 90s under
sunny skies.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
100 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Arapahoe
100 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Boulder
100 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Broomfield
100 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Denver
100 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Douglas
100 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Jefferson
100 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
100 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Douglas
100 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Jefferson
100 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
6 months, 3 weeks
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 927 AM Sat June 1, 2024
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Warmer, sunny to start the day with another chance for
showers/isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening.
A minimal overall change to the upper-level dynamics today, combined
with low to mid 40 dew points at the surface this morning will bring
another chance for afternoon and early evening showers and isolated
thunderstorms. There will be a very slight chance some of these storms
will become severe, mainly for gusty winds and hail up to 1.0”,
likely for areas east of the District at this time.
Storms will initiate along the higher terrain foothills and Palmer
Divide in the early afternoon with the best chance for storms withing
the District between 2-7pm today. Storm motions will be from west to
east between 10-15mph which will help limit point rainfall amounts,
however, some erratic storm motions will be possible if stronger
storms develop due to outflow boundaries. These erratic storms will
have the highest potential for moderate to brief heavy rainfall with
the largest threat today being a quick 0.5” in 10-15min rather than
any long-lasting rainfall.
A very slight chance for a few lingering showers into the later
evening, although the threat of heavy rainfall should diminish after
sunset. Overnight will be clear to partly cloudy out as temperatures
dip into the low to mid 50s for the plains by daybreak tomorrow, with
upper 40s to around 50 for the foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and isolated
thunderstorms will produce a T-0.25” total in 10-30 minutes. A
moderate shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.25”-0.50” total in
10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm, or a stationary storm will
have the potential to produce up to 0.8” total in under 30 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Slightly drier air overall tomorrow will decrease the
chance for showers and thunderstorm threat, however, an abundance of
left over moisture at the surface from any rainfall today will likely
result in at least another LOW chance for Messages to be issued.
Temperatures tomorrow will increase into the upper 80s to around 90
degrees for the first time this year! Conditions are likely to dry out
completely Monday as high temperatures remain around 90 degrees.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (15%)
LOW
Arapahoe
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.5" (15%)
LOW
Boulder
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Broomfield
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Denver
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Douglas
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Jefferson
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
100 PM TO 600 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Douglas
100 PM TO 600 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Jefferson
100 PM TO 600 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
6 months, 3 weeks