August 2024 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 601 PM Fri August 23, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7:00 PM Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 7:00pm as the threat of heavy rainfall has come to an end. A round of moderate to heavy showers impacted northern portions of the District this afternoon and have since moved well onto the eastern plains. Breezy and dry conditions are expected through the rest of the evening. A slight chance for an additional round of showers late this evening/overnight, likely bringing minimal additional rainfall across the District. Overnight temperatures will decrease into the low 60s for the plains with mid to upper 50s along the foothills. Slightly drier conditions move into the region tomorrow, however, a continued chance for a few late afternoon and early evening showers/thunderstorms. High temperatures tomorrow will also be similar, in the low 90s. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: A weak to moderate shower will produce a trace to 0.20” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate to strong shower/thunderstorm will have the potential to produce 0.20”-0.40” total in 10-30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 700 PM Current TO 630 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 700 PM Current TO 630 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 700 PM Current TO 630 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 700 PM Current TO 630 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 700 PM Current TO 630 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 700 PM Current TO 630 PM DIA 1 Current TO 700 PM Current TO 630 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 700 PM Current TO 630 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 700 PM Current TO 630 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 700 PM Current TO 630 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 700 PM Current TO 630 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 700 PM Current TO 630 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 300 AM SAT Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 300 AM SAT Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Boulder Current TO 300 AM SAT Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 300 AM SAT Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Denver Current TO 300 AM SAT Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Douglas Current TO 300 AM SAT Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 300 AM SAT Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 300 AM SAT Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Douglas Current TO 300 AM SAT Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 300 AM SAT Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 212 PM Fri August 23, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED EFFECTIVE UNTIL 7:00 PM Storms have started to initiate along the foothills and will start moving into the District over the next hour. Temperatures today reached the mid to upper 80s, combined with dew points in the low to mid 50s, storms today could potentially produce moderate to brief heavy rainfall. Storm motions will be from west to east, generally between 10-15mph with some erratic storm movement possibly along outflow boundaries. These outflow storms will likely have the most potential for heavy rainfall with a quick 0.5” in 10-20 minutes rather than any long-lasting rainfall. Storms may also contain hail up to 1.0”, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning and gusty winds up to 60mph. One round of showers and thunderstorms with moderate to heavy rainfall is expected today, with skies likely clearing out by sundown. A slight chance for a few overnight showers as temperatures drop into the low 60s on the plains with mid to upper 50s along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers/thunderstorms will produce a 0.05-0.30" total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong thunderstorm will produce rainfall rates of 0.30”-0.70” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow-moving stationary thunderstorm, training of thunderstorms cells or a large thunderstorm complex may result in up to 1.40” total rain in under 60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Broomfield County 1 Current TO 700 PM 230 PM TO 630 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 700 PM 230 PM TO 630 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 700 PM 230 PM TO 630 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 700 PM 230 PM TO 630 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 700 PM 230 PM TO 630 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 700 PM 230 PM TO 630 PM DIA 1 Current TO 700 PM 230 PM TO 630 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 700 PM 230 PM TO 630 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 700 PM 230 PM TO 630 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 700 PM 230 PM TO 630 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 700 PM 230 PM TO 630 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 700 PM 230 PM TO 630 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 700 PM FRI 0.05" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.7" (25%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 700 PM FRI 0.05" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.7" (25%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 700 PM FRI 0.05" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.7" (25%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 700 PM FRI 0.05" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.7" (25%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 700 PM FRI 0.05" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.7" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 700 PM FRI 0.05" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.7" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 700 PM FRI 0.05" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.7" (30%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 700 PM FRI 0.05" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.7" (30%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 700 PM FRI 0.05" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.7" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 700 PM FRI 0.05" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.7" (30%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 941 AM Fri August 23, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Isolated to Scattered Afternoon and Evening Showers and Thunderstorms High pressure ridging continues to transport Monsoonal moisture into the Four-Corners region, supporting isolated to scattered storms this week and through the weekend. Today, a trough moving over the west coast will amplify the ridge over the Central Plains, creating a capping inversion across the District. This inversion will inhibit storm development until the mid to late afternoon, resulting in isolated to scattered storm coverage. High temperatures will be around 90°F, with dewpoints in the low 50s and precipitable water (PWAT) values around 1.05”. Storm motions will be from west to east around 20-25 mph. Quick storm motions will help limit point rainfall amounts. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Showers and thunderstorms today have the potential to produce between 0.30”-0.70” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm, or slower moving storm, may be capable of producing 1.50” or more in 30-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Saturday will be warm with highs around 90°F once again and slight chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms. Very little change to this pattern is expected on Sunday as highs hover around 90°F with chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.3" (70%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.7" (30%) LOW Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.3" (70%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.7" (30%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.3" (70%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.7" (30%) LOW Broomfield 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.3" (70%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.7" (30%) LOW Denver 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.3" (70%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.7" (30%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.3" (70%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.7" (30%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.3" (70%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.7" (30%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.3" (70%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.7" (30%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.3" (70%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.7" (30%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.3" (70%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.7" (30%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 856 PM Thu August 22, 2024 Forecaster: Aaron O ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10:00 PM Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 10:00pm as the threat of heavy rainfall has come to an end. A single round of moderate to heavy showers impacted portions of the District this afternoon and early evening. Shower and thunderstorm activity has since moved northeastward and out of the District. No showers remain westward of the district. A very slight chance remains for an isolated shower to form and move into the District bringing minimal additional rainfall. Temperatures overnight will decrease into the low 60s for the plains with mid to upper 50s along the foothills. Drier conditions move into the region tomorrow, keeping only a slight chance for a few afternoon/evening showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm or two. High temperatures tomorrow will also increase, likely jumping back into the upper 80s to the low 90s. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: A weak shower will produce a trace to 0.10” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger shower will have the potential to produce 0.10-0.25” total in 10-30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (25%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (25%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Boulder Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (25%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (25%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Denver Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (25%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (25%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (25%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (25%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (25%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (25%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 510 PM Thu August 22, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Messages Issued For The Entire District Messages have been issued for the entire District, effective now until 10:00 PM. Thunderstorms with the potential to produce heavy rainfall are developing across western portions of the District. Surface winds across northeast Colorado are transporting an elevated airmass into the District and will fuel storm development with rainfall favoring areas of the plains and Quarry burn scar over the coming hours. Storm velocity of west to east at 10-15 mph is expected. Optimal Period: Flooding is most likely to occur until 9:00 PM. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall of 0.25-0.75" in 15-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow-moving thunderstorm or large thunderstorm complex may produce up to 1.25” of rain in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1000 PM THU Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM THU Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM THU Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 924 AM Thu August 22, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Scattered to Widespread Thunderstorms today. Monsoonal moisture and cloud cover will play a significant role in storm development today. High temperatures will reach the mid 80s with dewpoints in the low 50s and precipitable water (PWAT) values around 1.00”. Due to early morning cloud cover, convection initiation is expected to begin during the midafternoon. Slower upper-level steering winds will support clustered thunderstorms today, moving west to east around 15 mph. Slower storm movements may result in higher point rainfall amounts. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Showers and thunderstorms today have the potential to produce between 0.50”-1.00” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm complex may be capable of producing 1.50” or more in 30 minutes or less. A LOOK AHEAD: By Friday, a trough moving over the west coast will amplify the ridge over the Central Plains, creating a capping inversion across the District. This inversion will result in highs around 90°F and isolated storm coverage capable of producing light to briefly moderate precipitation. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.5" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1" (25%) HIGH Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.5" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1" (25%) HIGH Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.5" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1" (25%) HIGH Broomfield 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.5" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1" (25%) HIGH Denver 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.5" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1" (25%) HIGH Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.5" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1" (25%) HIGH Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.5" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1" (25%) HIGH Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.5" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1" (25%) HIGH Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.5" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1" (25%) HIGH Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.5" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1" (25%) HIGH MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 926 AM Wed August 21, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Isolated to Scattered Storms this afternoon and evening. A more active pattern emerges today as a weak shortwave trough moves across far northwest Colorado. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely during the afternoon and evening, with a modest severe weather threat. High temperatures will be around 90°F with dewpoints in the upper 40s and precipitable water (PWAT) values around 0.75”. Storm motions will be from west to east around 15-20 mph broadly across the District. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Showers and thunderstorms today have the potential to produce between a trace to 0.50” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm may be capable of producing 0.75” or more in 30 minutes or less. A LOOK AHEAD: Thursday will be similar to Wednesday, with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected throughout the day. Early convection may limit afternoon temperatures to the upper 80s across the plains. Better atmospheric moisture will support slightly higher rainfall amounts. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (70%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Arapahoe 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (70%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Boulder 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (70%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Broomfield 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (70%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Denver 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (70%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (70%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (70%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (70%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (70%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (70%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 946 AM Tue August 20, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Hot with a slight chance for afternoon showers. High pressure ridging continues to build across the intermountain west, supporting dryer and warmer conditions in the District today. This afternoon will be drier compared to yesterday, with only a slight chance of high-based showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will be in the 90s with dewpoints in the mid 40s and precipitable water (PWAT) values around 0.80”. Any storms that do manage to form today will be moving east around 20mph. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Showers and thunderstorms today have the potential to produce between a trace to 0.20” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm may be capable of producing 0.40” or more in 30 minutes or less. A LOOK AHEAD: On Wednesday, a weak shortwave trough will move across far northwest Colorado, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Temperatures will remain in the 90s. Thursday will be similar to Wednesday, with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected throughout the day. Early convection may limit afternoon temperatures to the upper 80s across the plains. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Arapahoe 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Boulder 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Broomfield 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Denver 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Douglas 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Jefferson 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Douglas 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Jefferson 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 855 PM Mon August 19, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9:30 PM Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 9:30pm as the threat of heavy rainfall has come to an end. A couple of rounds of moderate to heavy showers impacted portions of the District this afternoon and early evening. Shower and thunderstorm activity has since moved eastward and out of the District. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms persist for areas north of the District and should remain north as they continue to move eastward. A very slight chance for a few showers to make it into northern portions of the District bringing minimal additional rainfall. Temperatures overnight will decrease into the low 60s for the plains with mid to upper 50s along the foothills. Drier conditions move into the region tomorrow, keeping only a slight chance for a few late evening showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two. High temperatures tomorrow will also increase, likely jumping back into the 90s. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: A weak shower will produce a trace to 0.10” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate to strong shower/thunderstorm will have the potential to produce 0.10-0.30” total in 10-30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 900 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 900 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 900 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 900 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 900 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 900 PM DIA 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 900 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 900 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 900 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 900 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 900 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 930 PM Current TO 900 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (15%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Boulder Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Denver Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (15%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) to 0.3" (0%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) to 0.3" (0%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) to 0.3" (0%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) to 0.3" (0%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1249 PM Mon August 19, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED EFFECTIVE UNTIL 9:30 PM A couple of thunderstorms have developed along the higher terrain foothills and Palmer Divide and are expected to slowly move into the District over the next hour or two. Temperature have reached the mid to upper 80s already despite the cloud cover this morning, combined with dew points around 50 degrees, with pockets of mid 50s, should provide enough heat and moisture for moderate to heavy rainfall today. Typical storms motions will be from the SW to NE between 10-15mph, which could help limit some point rainfall amounts. However, additional storms will likely develop along outflow boundaries today, leading to an increased chance of heavy rainfall with localized flooding this afternoon and early evening. The best chance for shower/thunderstorm activity will be in the next hour, lasting until sundown before skies gradually start to clear into the later evening. Storms today may also contain gusty winds, up to 60mph and medium to large hail up to 1.0” with severe storms possible, favoring areas east of I-25 and out on the eastern plains. Overnight conditions will be mild and dry as temperatures drop into the low 60s on the plains with mid to upper 50s along the foothills. Conditions dry out tomorrow with high temperatures jumping back into the 90s. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers/thunderstorms will produce a 0.30-0.80" total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong thunderstorm will produce rainfall rates of 0.80”-1.50” total in 10- 30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow-moving thunderstorm, training of thunderstorms cells or a large thunderstorm complex may result in up to 2.25” total rain in 60-90 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 930 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 930 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 930 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 930 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 930 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 930 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM DIA 1 Current TO 930 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 930 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 930 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 930 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 930 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 930 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 930 PM MON 0.3" (75%) to 0.8" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 930 PM MON 0.3" (75%) to 0.8" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 930 PM MON 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) to 1.5" (15%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 930 PM MON 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) to 1.5" (15%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 930 PM MON 0.3" (75%) to 0.8" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 930 PM MON 0.3" (75%) to 0.8" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 930 PM MON 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) to 1.5" (15%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 930 PM MON 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (40%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 930 PM MON 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (40%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 930 PM MON 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (40%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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hpo-ims August 2024