August 2024 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 438 PM Thu August 8, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED EFFECTIVE UNTIL 9:00 PM Cooler temperatures have limited most storm development today. However, a stronger line of storms has initiated along the foothills this afternoon and will likely move into the District over the next hour or so. Dew points in the upper 50s to around 60, along with model driven PWAT values between 1.00-1.10” will result in efficient rainfall producing storms this afternoon and early evening. Currently storms will be moving from NW to SE around 15mph, with anchored storms possibly forming along outflow boundaries. These anchored/slow-moving storms will result in the potential for both 0.50” in 10-20 minutes and due to PWAT values above an inch, could result in an isolated 1.00-1.50” in under 60 minutes is storms linger, or there is training of storm cells. Once these rounds move out, skies will gradually clear through the late evening and overnight with temperatures dropping into the upper 50s for the plains with low to mid 50s along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce a trace-0.25" total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong thunderstorm will produce rainfall rates of 0.25”-0.75” total in 10- 30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow-moving thunderstorm, training of thunderstorms cells or a large thunderstorm complex may result in up to 1.50” of rain in 30-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Lakewood 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM DIA 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 900 PM THU Trace (80%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.75" (20%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 900 PM THU Trace (80%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.75" (20%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 900 PM THU Trace (80%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.75" (20%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 900 PM THU Trace (80%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.75" (20%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 900 PM THU Trace (80%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.75" (20%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM THU Trace (80%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.75" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 PM THU Trace (80%) to 0.25" (40%) to 0.75" (20%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 900 PM THU Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (30%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM THU Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 PM THU Trace (80%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (30%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

4 months, 2 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1002 AM Thu August 8, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Cool with Persistent Light Rainfall. The next big weather system will slowly migrate across the Northern Plains today and tomorrow, transporting a broad envelope of Pacific mid-level moisture into Colorado. Coupled with favorable upper-level support, several days of persistent rain and cooler temperatures are expected. A stratus deck has developed across the District and Front Range more broadly, facilitating light showers this morning. Afternoon temperatures may not make it out of the 60s, dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 50s, and precipitable water (PWAT) values around 1.00”. Coupled with favorable upper-level divergence, these conditions will support persistent and mostly stratified light to briefly moderate rainfall today and tonight. Due to higher moisture content, minimal storm motions, a LOW chance for Messages will be possible today and this evening. If any thunderstorms are able to develop today, the chances for heavy rainfall will increase significantly throughout the District. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce a trace-0.30" total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong shower will produce rainfall rates of 0.30”-0.50” total in 10- 30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A thunderstorm develops will have the potential of producing up to 1.00” in 30 minutes or less. A LOOK AHEAD: Tomorrow will be similar as this slow-moving system meanders across the Plains. Highs will remain cooler in the mid 70s with continued light rainfall during the morning. Better conditions for thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, supporting higher chances for more meaningful rainfall during the afternoon and evening. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1100 PM THU Trace (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW Arapahoe Current TO 1100 PM THU Trace (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW Boulder Current TO 1100 PM THU Trace (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW Broomfield Current TO 1100 PM THU Trace (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW Denver Current TO 1100 PM THU Trace (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW Douglas Current TO 1100 PM THU Trace (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 1100 PM THU Trace (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1100 PM THU Trace (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW Douglas Current TO 1100 PM THU Trace (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 1100 PM THU Trace (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

4 months, 2 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 859 PM Wed August 7, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10:00 PM TONIGHT Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 10pm tonight as the threat of heavy rainfall has come to an end. Storms today remained weak over the District with a few very strong storms to the north and just east of the District boundary. Storms have since moved well eastward and onto the eastern plains. A slight chance for a few isolated showers this evening before skies clear out overnight. Any shower activity this evening will remain minimal. Temperatures will drop into the upper 50s to low 60s overnight. A change in the pattern tomorrow as a cold front brings much cooler conditions throughout the day. A good chance for increasing clouds with a few showers ahead of the cold front during the morning tomorrow. This cold front will move in from the N/NE before, or right around midday. Shower activity and strength will hinge heavily on daytime temperatures tomorrow, mainly due to the timing of this cold front. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce a trace-0.10" total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate to strong thunderstorm will produce rainfall rates of 0.10”-0.30” total in 10- 30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1159 PM WED Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM WED Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Boulder Current TO 1159 PM WED Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM WED Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Denver Current TO 1159 PM WED Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1159 PM WED Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM WED Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1159 PM WED Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1159 PM WED Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM WED Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

4 months, 2 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 245 PM Wed August 7, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Messages have been issued for the entire District Storms have started to initiate along the foothills and are expected to start moving into the District over the next hour. Like yesterday, slow moving, gust-front driven storms are expected to propagate from west to east around 15-20 mph. However, gust fronts will likely result in additional, slower-moving thunderstorms which will have the potential for moderate to heavy rainfall. Heavy Rainfall is most likely to occur until 9:30 PM tonight. A few lingering showers may persist later through the evening and overnight ahead of the cold front. At this time, the approaching cold front is expected to move through the District early tomorrow morning. There is still some uncertainty about the timing of the front, which will depend on how long the cool airmass stalls north of the Cheyenne Ridge. We will continue to monitor this system as it tracks south and update as needed. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.30”-0.90” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow-moving thunderstorm or a large thunderstorm complex may result in up to 1.80” of rain in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.3" (55%) to 0.55" (35%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.3" (55%) to 0.55" (35%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.3" (55%) to 0.55" (35%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.3" (55%) to 0.55" (35%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.3" (55%) to 0.55" (35%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.3" (55%) to 0.55" (35%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.3" (55%) to 0.55" (35%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.3" (55%) to 0.55" (35%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.3" (55%) to 0.55" (35%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.3" (55%) to 0.55" (35%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

4 months, 2 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 954 AM Wed August 7, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Hot with chances for afternoon to evening showers and storms. High pressure ridging over the region will continue to favor hot weather today with a chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Afternoon temperatures will reach the mid to upper 90s, dewpoints will be in the low to mid 50s, and precipitable water (PWAT) values around 0.85”. Like yesterday, these conditions will support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, beginning over higher terrain early this afternoon and moving onto the plains by midafternoon. Storm motions will be from west to east broadly, around 15-20 mph. Overnight, a few isolated showers are possible ahead of the cold front, but precipitation is expected to remain relatively light. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Showers and thunderstorms today have the potential to produce between 0.25”-0.50” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow-moving stronger thunderstorm may be capable of producing 1.25” or more in 30 minutes or less. A LOOK AHEAD: A broad, upper-level low will slowly traverse the Northern Plains early tomorrow morning, displacing the ridge currently over the Four-Corners region towards the southwest. This upper-level disturbance will transport a dense envelope of Pacific mid-level moisture into Colorado, supporting several days of persistent, meaningful rain and cooler temperatures starting tomorrow through Saturday. At this time, the approaching cold front is expected to move through the District early tomorrow morning. There is still some uncertainty about the timing of the front, which will depend on how long the airmass stalls north of the Cheyenne Ridge. We will continue to monitor this system as it tracks south and update as needed. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW Broomfield 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW Denver 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (75%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

4 months, 2 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 933 PM Tue August 6, 2024 Forecaster: Aaron O ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10:00 PM Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 10pm as the threat of heavy rainfall has come to an end. After the two waves of storms moved through the District, the threat for Message level rainfall has significantly diminished. Heavy precipitation will struggle to develop for the next several hours due to the cooler temperatures over the District. A few isolated showers/thunderstorms persist over portions of the District and should weaken as they move east/southeast and out of the District. Temperatures overnight will decrease into the low to mid 60s for the plains with upper 50s to around 60 degrees along the foothills. Similar conditions will remain in place for tomorrow with another good chance for widespread afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms. An abundance of available moisture, both aloft and now at the surface will result in moderate to heavy rainfall out of any storms that are able to develop. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak showers will produce a trace to 0.20” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger shower/thunderstorm will have the potential to produce 0.20-0.40” total in 10-30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1159 PM TUE Trace (30%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM TUE Trace (30%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Boulder Current TO 1159 PM TUE Trace (30%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM TUE Trace (30%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Denver Current TO 1159 PM TUE Trace (30%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1159 PM TUE Trace (30%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM TUE Trace (30%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1159 PM TUE Trace (30%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1159 PM TUE Trace (30%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM TUE Trace (30%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

4 months, 2 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 124 PM Tue August 6, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Messages have been issued for the entire District Messages have been issued for the entire District, effective until 10:00 PM. Storms have started to initiate along the foothills and are expected to start moving into the District over the next hour. Slow moving, gust-front driven storms are expected to propagate from west to east around 15-20 mph. However, gust fronts will likely result in additional, slower-moving thunderstorms which will have the potential for moderate to heavy rainfall. Heavy Rainfall is most likely to occur until 9:00 PM tonight. A few lingering showers may persist after 9pm, but with elevated moisture in place, any lingering showers will be efficient rainfall producers. Once showers dissipate, skies will clear through the overnight with temperatures dropping into the 60s. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.25”-0.75” in 10-30 minutes. A slow-moving thunderstorm or a large thunderstorm complex may result in up to 1.50” of rain in 45-60 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow-moving thunderstorm or a large thunderstorm complex may result in up to 1.50” of rain in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1000 PM TUE 0.25" (55%) to 0.5" (35%) to 0.75" (15%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1000 PM TUE 0.25" (55%) to 0.5" (35%) to 0.75" (15%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1000 PM TUE 0.25" (55%) to 0.5" (35%) to 0.75" (15%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1000 PM TUE 0.25" (55%) to 0.5" (35%) to 0.75" (15%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1000 PM TUE 0.25" (55%) to 0.5" (35%) to 0.75" (15%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM TUE 0.25" (55%) to 0.5" (35%) to 0.75" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM TUE 0.25" (55%) to 0.5" (35%) to 0.75" (15%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1000 PM TUE 0.25" (55%) to 0.5" (35%) to 0.75" (15%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM TUE 0.25" (55%) to 0.5" (35%) to 0.75" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM TUE 0.25" (55%) to 0.5" (35%) to 0.75" (15%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

4 months, 2 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 958 AM Tue August 6, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Chances for Isolated Showers and Thunderstorms. High pressure remains parked over the Four-Corners region today, supporting hot temperatures in the mid 90s once again. Afternoon dewpoints will be in the low to mid 50s, with precipitable water (PWAT) values around 1.00”. These conditions will support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, beginning over higher terrain early this afternoon and moving onto the plains by midafternoon. Storm motions will be from west to east broadly, around 10-20 mph. CAPE values around 1500 J/kg suggest storms have the potential to produce hail, which may help limit point rainfall amounts. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Showers and thunderstorms today have the potential to produce between 0.25”-0.75” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow-moving stronger thunderstorm may be capable of producing 1.25” or more in 30 minutes or less. A LOOK AHEAD: A more active pattern begins tomorrow as a cold front approaches from the north. Elevated atmospheric moisture and favorable upper-level conditions will support scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms across the District beginning tomorrow afternoon. This pattern is expected to continue Thursday and Friday, before gradually winding down over the weekend. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.25" (55%) to 0.5" (35%) to 0.75" (15%) MOD Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.25" (55%) to 0.5" (35%) to 0.75" (15%) MOD Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.25" (55%) to 0.5" (35%) to 0.75" (15%) MOD Broomfield 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.25" (55%) to 0.5" (35%) to 0.75" (15%) MOD Denver 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.25" (55%) to 0.5" (35%) to 0.75" (15%) MOD Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.25" (55%) to 0.5" (35%) to 0.75" (15%) MOD Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.25" (55%) to 0.5" (35%) to 0.75" (15%) MOD Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.25" (55%) to 0.5" (35%) to 0.75" (15%) MOD Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.25" (55%) to 0.5" (35%) to 0.75" (15%) MOD Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.25" (55%) to 0.5" (35%) to 0.75" (15%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

4 months, 2 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 926 PM Mon August 5, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10:00 PM Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 10pm as the threat of heavy rainfall has come to an end. After a long-lasting round of widespread moderate to heavy rainfall, only a few isolated showers persist over eastern portions of the District. These showers will slowly meander eastward through the rest of the evening with skies gradually clearing behind. A few additional showers may develop late this evening brining, favoring east/southeast portions of the District. Temperatures overnight will decrease into the low to mid 60s for the plains with upper 50s to around 60 degrees along the foothills. Similar conditions will remain in place for tomorrow with another good chance for widespread afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms. An abundance of available moisture, both aloft and now at the surface will result in moderate to heavy rainfall out of any storms that are able to develop. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weakening showers will produce a trace to 0.20” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger shower/thunderstorm will have the potential to produce 0.20-0.40” total in 10-30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Boulder Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Denver Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

4 months, 2 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 320 PM Mon August 5, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED EFFECTIVE UNTIL 10:00 PM Storms have initiated along the foothills this afternoon and will likely move into the District over the next hour or so. Temperatures today have been cooler, however, dew points are elevated at the surface currently in the upper 40s to low 50s. Combined with model driven PWAT values between 1.00-1.25” will result in efficient rainfall producing storms this afternoon and evening. Storms will also be slow moving from west to east around 5mph, with anchored storms likely forming along outflow boundaries. These slow-moving storms will result in the potential for both 0.50” in 10-20 minutes and due to PWAT values above an inch, could result in an isolated 1.00-1.25” in under 60 minutes. A couple of rounds of storms will be possible this afternoon and evening, the first round, moving in between 4-6pm likely having more impact than the later round moving in between 7-9pm. Once these rounds move out, skies will gradually clear through the overnight with temperatures dropping into the mid 60s for the plains with around 60 degrees along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce 0.05-0.30" total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong thunderstorm will produce rainfall rates of 0.30”-0.80” total in 10- 30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow-moving thunderstorm, training of thunderstorms cells or a large thunderstorm complex may result in up to 1.25” of rain in 30-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1000 PM MON 0.05" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (15%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1000 PM MON 0.05" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (15%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1000 PM MON 0.05" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (15%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1000 PM MON 0.05" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (15%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1000 PM MON 0.05" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (15%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM MON 0.05" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM MON 0.05" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (15%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1000 PM MON 0.05" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM MON 0.05" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM MON 0.05" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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hpo-ims August 2024