August 2024 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 952 AM Tue August 13, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Another active weather day is expected across the District Another active weather day is expected across the District today. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the 80s with dewpoints in the low to mid 50s and precipitable water (PWAT) values around 1.20”. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop by the early afternoon over complex terrain, becoming scattered to widespread as outflows propagate convection onto the plains. Storm motions will be from southwest to northeast around 15-20 mph. Storms will be capable of producing efficient, moderate to heavy rainfall. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Showers and thunderstorms today have the potential to produce between 0.75-1.25” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow-moving stronger thunderstorm may be capable of producing 2.00” or more in 30 minutes or less. A LOOK AHEAD: On Wednesday, expect highs in the 80s and another round of afternoon thunderstorms. Although atmospheric moisture will begin decreasing, there will still be enough moisture for scattered storms broadly across the District. Moisture continues decreasing on Thursday, supporting isolated showers and storms capable of producing light rain and gusty winds. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.75" (75%) to 1" (50%) to 1.25" (25%) HIGH Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.75" (75%) to 1" (50%) to 1.25" (25%) HIGH Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.75" (75%) to 1" (50%) to 1.25" (25%) HIGH Broomfield 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.75" (75%) to 1" (50%) to 1.25" (25%) HIGH Denver 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.75" (75%) to 1" (50%) to 1.25" (25%) HIGH Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.75" (75%) to 1" (50%) to 1.25" (25%) HIGH Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.75" (75%) to 1" (50%) to 1.25" (25%) HIGH Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.75" (75%) to 1" (50%) to 1.25" (25%) HIGH Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.75" (75%) to 1" (50%) to 1.25" (25%) HIGH Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.75" (75%) to 1" (50%) to 1.25" (25%) HIGH MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

4 months, 1 week

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 857 PM Mon August 12, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 2’S & MESSAGE 1’S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9:00 PM Message 2s and Message 1s will be allowed to expire at 9pm as the threat of heavy rain has come to an end. A few strong storms clipped southern and eastern portions of the District resulting in some isolated heavy rainfall this afternoon. Storms have since moved onto the eastward plains. A few additional showers could develop over portions of the District late this evening. Movement speeds have increased this evening and convection should remain minimal due to the loss of diurnal heating. Skies will clear out overnight with temperatures dropping into the upper 50s to low 60s by daybreak tomorrow. Another chance for moderate to heavy rain tomorrow, once again favoring areas east of I-25. Tomorrow could potentially bring a couple of rounds of storms, with a slight chance storms will become severe, including gusty winds and large hail. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: A shower will produce a trace to 0.10” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A weak thunderstorm will have the potential to produce 0.10”-0.30” total in 10-30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Lakewood 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM the City of Aurora 2 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Arapahoe County 2 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM DIA 2 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Denver County 2 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Adams County 2 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Douglas County 2 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Broomfield County 2 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Jefferson County 2 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM Boulder County 2 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 900 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 900 PM MON Trace (15%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 900 PM MON Trace (15%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 900 PM MON Trace (15%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 900 PM MON Trace (15%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 900 PM MON Trace (15%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM MON Trace (15%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 PM MON Trace (15%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 900 PM MON Trace (15%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM MON Trace (15%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 PM MON Trace (15%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.3" (5%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

4 months, 1 week

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1050 AM Mon August 12, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 2’S & MESSAGE 1’S ISSUED FOR THE DISTRICT EFFECTIVE FROM 2:00 PM UNTIL 9:00 PM TODAY Message 2’s, Flood Watch, have been issued for central/eastern/southern portions of the District and areas along the foothills effective from 2pm until 9pm this evening. Message 1’s have been issued for the Boulder suburbs, western Broomfield and the Jefferson suburbs effective from 2pm until 9pm this evening. The monsoonal moisture transport setup has strengthened over Colorado and the District today. This has brought the potential for some of the heaviest thunderstorm-driven rainfall of the year this afternoon and into the evening. Dewpoints across the District have dropped only a few degrees this morning, still well into the upper 50s, and will only mix down to the low/mid 50s by the time daytime heating initiates convection over the high country west of the District. As storms make their way east into the foothills and plains by midafternoon, the District will have 1.00"- 1.15" of precipitable water (PWAT) available. Combined with slower storm motions than the past few days, with some stationary storms likely, will lead to an increased chance for localized flooding today. Hail and gusty outflow winds that reach severe thresholds will also be possible with stronger storms, with some potential for severe weather, mainly areas east of I-25. Outflow boundary-driven storm initiation will be possible after the first round of storms today, with potential for lingering thunderstorms around the District remaining through the evening and into the night. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate thunderstorms will produce rainfall rates of 0.3-0.8” total in 10- 30 minutes. Strong to severe thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.8- 1.5” total of rain in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow-moving strong thunderstorm or a large thunderstorm complex may result in up to 3.0” of rain in 60-90 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Lakewood 1 200 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM Wheat Ridge 1 200 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM Arvada 1 200 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM the City of Aurora 2 200 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM Arapahoe County 2 200 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM DIA 2 200 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM Denver County 2 200 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM Adams County 2 200 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM Douglas County 2 200 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM Broomfield County 2 200 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM Jefferson County 2 200 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM Boulder County 2 200 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.03" (80%) to 0.8" (50%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED Arapahoe 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.03" (80%) to 0.8" (50%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED Boulder 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.03" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) to 1.5" (15%) ISSUED Broomfield 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.03" (80%) to 0.8" (50%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED Denver 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.03" (80%) to 0.8" (50%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED Douglas 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.03" (80%) to 0.8" (50%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.03" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) to 1.5" (15%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.03" (80%) to 0.8" (50%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED Douglas 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.03" (80%) to 0.8" (50%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.03" (80%) to 0.8" (50%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

4 months, 2 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 947 AM Mon August 12, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Slightly cooler, scattered/numerous PM showers/t-storms The monsoonal moisture transport setup remains in place for Colorado and the District today, with potential for some of the heavier thunderstorm-driven rainfall of the year today and tomorrow. Morning dewpoints across the District are hovering around 60, and will mix down to the low/mid 50s by the time daytime heating initiates convection over the high country west of the District. Storms that make their way east into the foothills and plains of the District midafternoon will have 1.00"-1.15" of precipitable water (PWAT) to work with, and slower storm motions than the past few days will lead to an increased chance for message issuance and localized low impact flooding today. Hail and gusty outflow winds that reach severe thresholds will also be possible with stronger storms. Outflow boundary-driven storm initiation appears likely after the first round of storms today, with potential for lingering thunderstorms around the District remaining through the evening and into the night, though the indication is that the majority of this action will remain east of the District. Skies will eventually clear by midnight, giving way to overnight lows around 60. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and thunderstorms will produce 0.25"-0.75" in 10-30 minutes. Stronger or slower moving thunderstorms will produce up to 1.50" total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: An extremely strong/stationary thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorms along a boundary, may produce up to 2.50" total in 60 minutes or less. A LOOK AHEAD: Similar moisture and forcing will be present again tomorrow, and early indications are of another day of likely message issuance. Storm coverage will taper off slowly as the week goes on due to an approaching trough from the Pacific Northwest that will change the upper-level flow direction, cutting off monsoonal moisture transport. Residual moisture will still be enough, however, to initiate seasonal convection through the end of the work week. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 100 PM TO 1100 PM 0.3" (70%) to 0.8" (50%) to 1.5" (30%) HIGH Arapahoe 100 PM TO 1100 PM 0.3" (70%) to 0.8" (50%) to 1.5" (30%) HIGH Boulder 100 PM TO 1100 PM 0.3" (70%) to 0.8" (50%) to 1.5" (30%) HIGH Broomfield 100 PM TO 1100 PM 0.3" (70%) to 0.8" (50%) to 1.5" (30%) HIGH Denver 100 PM TO 1100 PM 0.3" (70%) to 0.8" (50%) to 1.5" (30%) HIGH Douglas 100 PM TO 1100 PM 0.3" (70%) to 0.8" (50%) to 1.5" (30%) HIGH Jefferson 100 PM TO 1100 PM 0.3" (70%) to 0.8" (50%) to 1.5" (30%) HIGH Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 100 PM TO 1100 PM 0.3" (70%) to 0.8" (50%) to 1.5" (30%) HIGH Douglas 100 PM TO 1100 PM 0.3" (70%) to 0.8" (50%) to 1.5" (30%) HIGH Jefferson 100 PM TO 1100 PM 0.3" (70%) to 0.8" (50%) to 1.5" (30%) HIGH MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

4 months, 2 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 930 AM Sun August 11, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Morning drizzle, clearing before afternoon showers and thunderstorms Synoptic-scale lift is driving formation of some very weak showers in and around the District this morning, with a few gauges in the foothills picking up traces of precipitation. These showers will clear by late morning, giving way to clear skies that will heat the District to around 90, and initiate convection in the high country north and west of the District in the early afternoon. Storms will make their way off the foothills in the midafternoon, and will have seasonably normal levels of moisture to work with once they do. This will lead to some storms causing brief heavy rainfall, small hail, and gusty outflow winds. Similar to yesterday, storms will move quickly, so concerns for message issuance will favor the potential for 0.50" in 10 minutes rather than over 1.00" within an hour. However, similar to yesterday, if a complex of thunderstorms develops, or training of moderate to strong thunderstorm cells, 1.00-1.50” will be possible for the worst case scenario in up to 60 minutes. Skies will clear as the evening turns to night, and overnight lows will return to the upper 50s on the plains with low to mid 50s along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and thunderstorms will produce 0.10"-0.25" total in 10-30 minutes. A stronger or slower-moving thunderstorm will produce up to 0.25"-0.75" total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: An anchored/stationary thunderstorm, thunderstorm complex, or training of thunderstorms along a boundary, may be capable of producing 1.00-1.50" of rainfall in up to 60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Likely moderate message issuance potential tomorrow as an approaching cold front will provide necessary lift for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. Typical afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms will continue through the work week but slowly taper off each day, with dry conditions expected by Friday! LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 100 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

4 months, 2 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 955 PM Sat August 10, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 11:00 PM Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 11pm as the threat of heavy rainfall has come to an end. A couple of strong storms impacted southern portions of the District this afternoon bringing moderate to heavy rainfall. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms persist for areas south of the District and will continue to move east/southeast through the evening. A few light showers may remain for southern portions of the District over the next couple of hours before showers activity comes to an end for the night. Temperatures overnight will decrease to around 60 for the plains with mid 50s along the foothills. Similar conditions will remain in place for tomorrow with another good chance for isolated afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms. An abundance of available moisture remains in place, both aloft and at the surface, which will result in a continued chance for moderate to heavy rainfall out of any storms that are able to develop. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weakening showers will produce a trace to 0.10” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate shower/ weak thunderstorm will have the potential to produce 0.10-0.30” total in 10-30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1030 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) to 0.3" (0%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) to 0.3" (0%) NONE Boulder Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) to 0.3" (0%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) to 0.3" (0%) NONE Denver Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) to 0.3" (0%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) to 0.3" (0%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) to 0.3" (0%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) to 0.3" (0%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (10%) to 0.1" (5%) to 0.3" (0%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

4 months, 2 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 331 PM Sat August 10, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED EFFECTIVE UNTIL 11:00 PM Message 1’s have been issued, effective until 11pm this evening as the potential for showers and thunderstorms with moderate to heavy rainfall increases this afternoon. A few showers and thunderstorms north of the District have produced a gust front which is currently moving into the District from the north with 25-35mph gusts. This gust front will continue through the District over the next couple of hours as storms start to approach from the west. The best chance for storms in the District will likely start over the next hour with a couple of rounds of storms possible this afternoon and evening. Temperatures today reach the mid 80s, resulting in a better chance for thunderstorms activity today. Dew points remain in the low to mid 50s, combined with good upper-level support into the late evening hours will result in a good chance for isolated moderate to heavy rainfall. The largest threat today will be a quick 0.50” in 10-15 minutes, rather than any long-lasting rainfall as storm motions remain between 15-25mph. This quick motion should help limit point rainfall amounts, although gust fronts could result in some erratic storm motions leading to a better chance for brief heavy rainfall. Skies will slowly clear out after midnight tonight with overnight temperatures dropping to around 60 on the plains with mid 50s along the foothills. Once again, a few areas of patchy fog will be possible in the early morning hours. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce a 0.05-0.30" total in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong thunderstorm will produce rainfall rates of 0.30”-0.80” total in 10- 30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow-moving thunderstorm, training of thunderstorms cells or a large thunderstorm complex may result in up to 1.50” of rain in 30-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Douglas County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1100 PM SAT 0.05" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1100 PM SAT 0.05" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1100 PM SAT 0.05" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1100 PM SAT 0.05" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1100 PM SAT 0.05" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1100 PM SAT 0.05" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1100 PM SAT 0.05" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1100 PM SAT 0.05" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1100 PM SAT 0.05" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1100 PM SAT 0.05" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (30%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

4 months, 2 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 938 AM Sat August 10, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Warmer, scattered thunderstorms afternoon and evening Warmer temperatures and similar moisture profiles will allow for more organized thunderstorm development today, as opposed to the sporadic convection and showers present the past few days. Drier air aloft, decent surface moisture (forecasted afternoon dewpoints in low 50s), and fast-moving upper level flow will support development of thunderstorms over the high country west of the District in the early afternoon. Thunderstorms today will move from the west/northwest to the east/southeast at 15-20mph and, once reaching the foothills and urban corridor, will exist in an environment conducive to severe thunderstorm development. Heavy rainfall, hail, and gusty outflow winds to 60mph will be possible with the stronger storms today, though these conditions are more likely to develop on the plains east of the District. Atmospheric recovery appears likely today, meaning multiple rounds of storms are possible throughout the afternoon, evening, and into the early overnight hours. Skies will clear through the pre-sunrise hours of Tuesday, but a strong shortwave disturbance and synoptic-scale lift from the right entrance region of a jet streak over the High Plains create chances for light morning showers Sunday. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and thunderstorms will produce 0.10"-0.30" total in 10-30 minutes. A stronger or slower-moving thunderstorm will produce up to 0.30"-1.00" total in 10-30 minutes WORST CASE SCENARIO: An anchored/stationary thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorms along a boundary, may be capable of producing 2.00" of rainfall in up to 60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Slightly lower thunderstorm and message issuance potential Sunday as drier air fills in from the upper atmosphere after morning shower chances. Increase in chances again Monday as a strong shortwave ahead of a deepening trough over the Pacific Northwest and continued monsoonal moisture transport create higher chances of thunderstorm development. A gradual warming and drying trend begins Tuesday. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 200 PM TO 1100 PM 0.1" (70%) to 0.3" (40%) to 1" (10%) LOW Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1100 PM 0.1" (70%) to 0.3" (40%) to 1" (10%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 1100 PM 0.1" (70%) to 0.3" (40%) to 1" (10%) LOW Broomfield 200 PM TO 1100 PM 0.1" (70%) to 0.3" (40%) to 1" (10%) LOW Denver 200 PM TO 1100 PM 0.1" (70%) to 0.3" (40%) to 1" (10%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 1100 PM 0.1" (70%) to 0.3" (40%) to 1" (10%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 1100 PM 0.1" (70%) to 0.3" (40%) to 1" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 200 PM TO 1100 PM 0.1" (70%) to 0.3" (40%) to 1" (10%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 1100 PM 0.1" (70%) to 0.3" (40%) to 1" (10%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 1100 PM 0.1" (70%) to 0.3" (40%) to 1" (10%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

4 months, 2 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 958 AM Fri August 9, 2024 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- Scattered to widespread thunderstorms across the District A wave of unsettled weather will continue traversing the Northern Plains today, transporting a broad envelope of Pacific mid-level moisture into Colorado. Coupled with favorable upper-level support, another cool and stormy day is expected. The stratus deck blanketing Northeastern Colorado this morning will remain in place throughout the day, encouraging cooler temperatures in the 70s. Dewpoints will be in the upper 50s to low 60s, and precipitable water (PWAT) values around 1.00”. The right entrance region of the upper-level jet will be over northeast Colorado broadly today, providing sufficient lift for convection initiation. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop by the early afternoon over complex terrain, becoming scattered to widespread as outflows propagate convection onto the plains. Storm motions will be from west to east around 25mph. Quick storm motions will help limit point rainfall amounts, but stronger storms will be capable of producing efficient, moderate to briefly heavy rainfall. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and thunderstorms today have the potential to produce between a 0.25-0.50” in 10-30 minutes. Stronger showers and thunderstorms today have the potential to produce between a 0.50-0.75” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow-moving stronger thunderstorm may be capable of producing 1.50” or more in 30 minutes or less. A LOOK AHEAD: Starting tomorrow, cloud cover should start to break up with some drying aloft. Temperatures will be in the 80s with chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Arapahoe 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Boulder 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Broomfield 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Denver 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Douglas 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Jefferson 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Douglas 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD Jefferson 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 0.75" (25%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

4 months, 2 weeks

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 819 PM Thu August 8, 2024 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9:00 PM TONIGHT Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 9pm tonight as the threat of heavy rainfall has come to an end. Cooler temperatures helped limit storms for some locations today. Mainly areas north of I-70 where better rainfall this morning and more persistent cloud cover deterred any meaning development. Areas where the sun peaked through this afternoon, mostly south of I-70, received a moderate to strong round of storms this afternoon and early evening. Another late shower developed over the Chatfield area and is dissipating as it moves E/SE and out of the District. This will result in a few light showers remaining for the southeastern portion of the District with the rest of the District remaining mostly dry throughout the rest of the evening. A few off and on light to briefly moderate showers could develop through tomorrow morning, with minimal additional precipitation expected. Overnight will be cloudy with some areas of fog/drizzle possible in the morning hours tomorrow. Temperatures will drop into the upper 50s for the plains with low to mid 50s along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers through tomorrow morning will produce a trace-0.10" total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate to strong shower will produce rainfall rates of 0.10”-0.30” total in 10-30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM DIA 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 830 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 900 AM FRI Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 900 AM FRI Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Boulder Current TO 900 AM FRI Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 900 AM FRI Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Denver Current TO 900 AM FRI Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Douglas Current TO 900 AM FRI Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 900 AM FRI Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 900 AM FRI Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Douglas Current TO 900 AM FRI Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 900 AM FRI Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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hpo-ims August 2024