Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2@udfcd.org
Time: 1019 AM Mon August 19, 2024
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Scattered/numerous afternoon thunderstorms, few degrees cooler overall
Morning cloud cover seems to be stabilizing the atmosphere slightly,
but it won't change the fact that many ingredients for a message
issuance day are present for the District. Upper-level monsoonal
moisture and low-level plains moisture, advected into the District by
surface winds out of the southeast, have combined to create
precipitable water (PWAT) values of 1.05-1.20" across the District.
Dewpoints along the plains are staggering for mid/late August (72 at
time of writing in Fort Morgan, 66 in Limon), and with the development
of the Denver Convergence Vorticity Zone (DCVZ), moisture and forcing
will both be present across the District for thunderstorm development
this afternoon. The current indication is that the worst of this
activity will be east of the District, but pooling of moisture at the
top of the Palmer Divide and in the Boulder Valley as a result of the
DCVZ's circulation will lead to likely message issuance to cover bases
in case the convergence zone sets up closer to the mountains than
anticipated.
Storms are expected to fire in the high country west of the District
around noon, and move into the foothills and plains in the early
afternoon. They will be scattered/numerous in nature, and carry the
threat of heavy localized rainfall, medium to large size hail, and
gusty outflow winds up to 60 mph before they clear out just after
sunset. Skies will be calm overnight with temps in the low 60s.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and
thunderstorms will produce 0.30"-0.80" in 10-30 minutes. Stronger or
slower moving thunderstorms will produce 0.80"-1.50" total in 30
minutes or less.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stationary thunderstorm, or training of
thunderstorms along a boundary, may be capable of producing 2.25" in
60 minutes or less.
A LOOK AHEAD: Drier tomorrow, with storm coverage mostly over higher
terrain of foothills and Palmer Divide. Then the seemingly relentless
monsoon kicks back into place, with storm chances looking likely for
the District from Wednesday on into the weekend.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (40%) to 1.5" (20%)
HIGH
Arapahoe
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (40%) to 1.5" (20%)
HIGH
Boulder
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (40%) to 1.5" (20%)
HIGH
Broomfield
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (40%) to 1.5" (20%)
HIGH
Denver
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (40%) to 1.5" (20%)
HIGH
Douglas
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (40%) to 1.5" (20%)
HIGH
Jefferson
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (40%) to 1.5" (20%)
HIGH
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (40%) to 1.5" (20%)
HIGH
Douglas
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (40%) to 1.5" (20%)
HIGH
Jefferson
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (40%) to 1.5" (20%)
HIGH
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 month, 1 week
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2@udfcd.org
Time: 1013 AM Sun August 18, 2024
Forecaster: Tim Tonge
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Warm, scattered afternoon/evening showers/thunderstorms
The monsoonal moisture transport setup is back in place today and
tomorrow. Precipitable water (PWAT) values around 0.85" are typical of
mid August, and under temperatures in the low 90s combined with
dewpoints in the low/mid 40s, most showers and thunderstorms today
will produce more gusty outflow concerns than heavy rainfall. At
higher elevations within the foothills and on the Palmer Divide where
surface temperatures are cooler, more efficient rainfall is possible,
lending to a LOW probability of message issuance associated with a
round of storms beginning in the mid/late afternoon. With the threat
of strong outflow gusts, boundary-driven initiation is possible in and
around the District through the evening before storms fully clear out
overnight. Because of the possibility of this type of storm
initiation, rainfall chances will linger beyond sunset.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers and
thunderstorms will produce 0.05"-0.25" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes.
Stronger storms, likely at higher elevations, will produce up to 0.50"
in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong/stationary thunderstorm, or training of
thunderstorms, could be capable of producing up to 1.50" in 60 minutes
or less.
A LOOK AHEAD: Moisture chances for the work week will peak tomorrow as
PWAT values approach 150% of normal under the monsoon. The upper-level
setup shifts slightly Tuesday and Wednesday, cutting off the incoming
stream of available moisture briefly before rainfall chances increase
again going into the weekend.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
300 PM TO 1000 PM
0.05" (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.25" (10%)
LOW
Arapahoe
300 PM TO 1000 PM
0.05" (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.25" (10%)
LOW
Boulder
300 PM TO 1000 PM
0.05" (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.25" (10%)
LOW
Broomfield
300 PM TO 1000 PM
0.05" (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.25" (10%)
LOW
Denver
300 PM TO 1000 PM
0.05" (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.25" (10%)
LOW
Douglas
300 PM TO 1000 PM
0.05" (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.25" (10%)
LOW
Jefferson
300 PM TO 1000 PM
0.05" (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.25" (10%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
200 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (50%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.25" (10%)
LOW
Douglas
200 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (50%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.25" (10%)
LOW
Jefferson
200 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (50%) to 0.25" (30%) to 0.25" (10%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 month, 1 week
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2@udfcd.org
Time: 942 AM Sat August 17, 2024
Forecaster: Tim Tonge
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Hot and mostly dry, minimal chance of evening showers
Another mostly dry day until the monsoonal moisture transport setup
re-establishes itself late tonight and into tomorrow. Almost all
available moisture being delivered into Colorado will arrive in the
afternoon and be contained west of the Continental Divide, though an
isolated chance of a brief, low impact shower in the foothills exists
this evening. Most cells that do spill over the Divide will struggle
to maintain themselves in the dry airmass present on the plains,
raining themselves out over the foothills in brief fashion.
Showers will clear by late evening and skies will be slightly cloudy
before an increased chances of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow.
Note: there appears to be a glitch in the table. All District county
locations have equal, minimal rainfall chances today.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce
Trace-0.10" of rain in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stray shower that survives into the northern
foothills of the District in the evening could produce 0.25" in 10-30
minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Moisture will increase by tomorrow and peak Monday
before tapering off as the work week continues. Temperatures will
hover around or just above 90 in the afternoons for the foreseeable
future.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
600 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.1" (5%)
NONE
Douglas
600 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.1" (5%)
NONE
Jefferson
600 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.1" (5%)
NONE
600 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.1" (5%)
NONE
600 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.1" (5%)
NONE
600 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.1" (5%)
NONE
600 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.1" (5%)
NONE
600 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.1" (5%)
NONE
600 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.1" (5%)
NONE
600 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.1" (5%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 month, 1 week
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2@udfcd.org
Time: 925 AM Fri August 16, 2024
Forecaster: Laura Smith
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Dry and Sunny Weather expected across the District
Drier air aloft will continue to move over Colorado today, resulting
in sunny and dry conditions across the Front Range Urban Corridor.
High temperatures will be in the 90s with dewpoints in the mid 30s and
precipitable water (PWAT) values around 0.65”. Tonight, temperatures
will dip into the low 60s with dry conditions persisting through
tomorrow morning.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Precipitation is not expected
in the District today.
A LOOK AHEAD: The warmest and driest conditions of the week are
forecast on Saturday as a ridge builds over the region. Temperatures
will be in the mid to upper 90s across the plains. Meaningful
precipitation is not expected until Sunday when a shift in the upper
level jet will begin transporting better moisture into the region.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon and
evening.
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 month, 1 week
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2@udfcd.org
Time: 903 AM Thu August 15, 2024
Forecaster: Laura Smith
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Slight chance for thunderstorm activity today
Drier air aloft will move over Colorado today, resulting in
decreased thunderstorm activity across the District. Afternoon
temperatures will be in the 80s with dewpoints in the low 40s and
precipitable water (PWAT) values around 0.70”. These conditions will
support a slight chance for isolated afternoon to evening storms
capable of producing light rainfall. Storm motions will be from west
to east around 25 mph.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Thunderstorms today have the
potential to produce between a Trace to 0.10” in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm may be capable of producing
0.20” or more in 30 minutes or less.
A LOOK AHEAD: Ridge building continues across the Intermountain west,
supporting hotter and dryer weather through the end of the week.
Warmer conditions are expected Friday with highs in the 90s and slight
chances for isolated afternoon to evening thunderstorms. Saturday will
be similar, with warm temperatures and isolated showers. Meaningful
precipitation is not expected again until Sunday when a shift in the
upper level jet will begin transporting better moisture into the
region.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%)
NONE
Arapahoe
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%)
NONE
Boulder
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%)
NONE
Broomfield
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%)
NONE
Denver
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%)
NONE
Douglas
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%)
NONE
Jefferson
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%)
NONE
Douglas
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%)
NONE
Jefferson
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 month, 2 weeks
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2@udfcd.org
Time: 859 PM Wed August 14, 2024
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1’S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10:00 PM
Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 10pm as the threat of
heavy rainfall has come to an end.
Another round of showers is moving through the District from the
west/northwest and will make its way through over the next hour or two
as it moves east/southeast. Showers should gradually weaken as they
make their way eastward and out of the District.
There will be a slight chance a shower or two could pulse up into a
thunderstorm as they make their way through portions of the the
District. However, storm speeds are between 15-20 mph which will limit
point rainfall amounts.
As showers dissipate, gusty winds will be possible as this line of
showers moves eastward and out of the District. Skies will gradually
clear out behind this round of showers with mild and dry conditions
expected overnight.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce a
trace to 0.10” total in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A weak to moderate thunderstorm will produce
0.10”-0.30” total in 10-30 minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Boulder County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Douglas County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Adams County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Denver County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
DIA
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Arvada
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Lakewood
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 1159 PM WED
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Arapahoe
Current TO 1159 PM WED
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Boulder
Current TO 1159 PM WED
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Broomfield
Current TO 1159 PM WED
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Denver
Current TO 1159 PM WED
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Douglas
Current TO 1159 PM WED
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Jefferson
Current TO 1159 PM WED
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 1159 PM WED
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Douglas
Current TO 1159 PM WED
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Jefferson
Current TO 1159 PM WED
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 month, 2 weeks
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2@udfcd.org
Time: 349 PM Wed August 14, 2024
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT EFFECTIVE UNTIL
10:00 PM
A gust front from the northeast has moved into the District this
afternoon resulting in a few strong storms to develop over portions of
the District. Some of these storms contain large hail and moderate to
brief heavy rain. The biggest threat from these storms will be a quick
0.5” in 10-20 minutes, rather than any long-lasting rainfall.
Storms are generally moving west to east with erratic storm motions
likely along gust fronts. These erratic storms will have the best
chance for Low Impact Flooding as heavy rainfall likely to stall over
some areas. Storms will likely be off and on through the rest of the
afternoon and into the evening hours.
Skies will gradually clear after 10pm with clearing skies overnight. A
few areas of fog in the morning will be possible as overnight
temperatures drop into the low 60s on the plains with mid 50s along
the foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate thunderstorms
will produce rainfall rates of 0.1-0.4” total in 10-30 minutes.
Strong to severe thunderstorms will have the potential to produce
rainfall rates of 0.4-0.8” total of rain in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow-moving strong thunderstorm or a large
thunderstorm complex may result in up to 1.5” of rain in 45-60
minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Lakewood
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Arvada
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
DIA
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Adams County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Denver County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Douglas County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Boulder County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 1000 PM WED
0.1" (60%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (20%)
ISSUED
Arapahoe
Current TO 1000 PM WED
0.1" (60%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (20%)
ISSUED
Boulder
Current TO 1000 PM WED
0.1" (60%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (20%)
ISSUED
Broomfield
Current TO 1000 PM WED
0.1" (60%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (20%)
ISSUED
Denver
Current TO 1000 PM WED
0.1" (60%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (20%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 1000 PM WED
0.1" (60%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (20%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 1000 PM WED
0.1" (60%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (20%)
ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 1000 PM WED
0.1" (40%) to 0.4" (30%) to 0.8" (10%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 1000 PM WED
0.1" (50%) to 0.4" (40%) to 0.8" (20%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 1000 PM WED
0.1" (40%) to 0.4" (30%) to 0.8" (10%)
ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 month, 2 weeks
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2@udfcd.org
Time: 934 AM Wed August 14, 2024
Forecaster: Laura Smith
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
Isolated to Scattered Thunderstorms Expected Today.
High temperatures will be in the 80s today with dewpoints in the mid
to upper 40s and precipitable water (PWAT) values around 0.70”.
Although atmospheric moisture will begin decreasing, there will still
be enough moisture for isolated to scattered storms broadly across the
District this afternoon and evening. Storm motions will be from west
to east around 25 mph. Quick storm motions will help limit point
rainfall amounts.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Showers and thunderstorms today
have the potential to produce between 0.25”-0.75” in 10-30
minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow-moving stronger thunderstorm, or training
of thunderstorms, may be capable of producing 1.25” or more in 30
minutes or less.
A LOOK AHEAD: Ridge building begins across the Intermountain west,
supporting hotter and dryer weather through the end of the week. On
Thursday, isolated showers and storms capable of producing light rain
and gusty winds are possible. Afternoon temperatures will be in the
80s. Warmer conditions are expected Friday with highs in the 90s and
slight chances for isolated afternoon to evening thunderstorms.
Saturday will be similar, with warm temperatures and isolated showers.
Meaningful precipitation is not expected again until Sunday when a
shift in the upper level jet will begin transporting better moisture
into the region.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (30%) to 0.75" (10%)
MOD
Arapahoe
200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (30%) to 0.75" (10%)
MOD
Boulder
200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (30%) to 0.75" (10%)
MOD
Broomfield
200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (30%) to 0.75" (10%)
MOD
Denver
200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (30%) to 0.75" (10%)
MOD
Douglas
200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (30%) to 0.75" (10%)
MOD
Jefferson
200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (30%) to 0.75" (10%)
MOD
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (30%) to 0.75" (10%)
MOD
Douglas
200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (30%) to 0.75" (10%)
MOD
Jefferson
200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.25" (50%) to 0.5" (30%) to 0.75" (10%)
MOD
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 month, 2 weeks
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2@udfcd.org
Time: 831 PM Tue August 13, 2024
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 2’S & MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN CANCELLED
Message 2’s and Message 1’s have been cancelled for the entire
District as the threat of heavy rainfall has come to an end.
Multiple rounds of storms moved through the District this afternoon
and early evening and have since moved eastward and out of the
District. No additional rainfall is expected this evening and through
the overnight. Overnight will clear out with temperatures dropping to
around 60 degrees on the plains with mid 50s along the foothills.
Another chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms tomorrow, with
another slight chance of seeing strong to severe storms, once again
favoring areas east of I-25.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No additional showers or
precipitation is expected this evening.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Boulder County
2
Current TO 832 PM
Current TO 832 PM
Jefferson County
2
Current TO 832 PM
Current TO 832 PM
Broomfield County
2
Current TO 832 PM
Current TO 832 PM
Douglas County
2
Current TO 832 PM
Current TO 832 PM
Adams County
2
Current TO 832 PM
Current TO 832 PM
Denver County
2
Current TO 832 PM
Current TO 832 PM
DIA
2
Current TO 832 PM
Current TO 832 PM
Arapahoe County
2
Current TO 832 PM
Current TO 832 PM
the City of Aurora
2
Current TO 832 PM
Current TO 832 PM
Arvada
2
Current TO 832 PM
Current TO 832 PM
Wheat Ridge
2
Current TO 832 PM
Current TO 832 PM
Lakewood
2
Current TO 832 PM
Current TO 832 PM
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 month, 2 weeks
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2@udfcd.org
Time: 1226 PM Tue August 13, 2024
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 2’S & MESSAGE 1’S ISSUED FOR THE DISTRICT EFFECTIVE FROM
NOW PM UNTIL 11:00 PM TODAY
Message 2’s, Flood Watch, have been issued for areas above 6,000ft
in Boulder, Jefferson, Douglas Counties effective from NOW until 11pm
this evening.
Message 1’s have been issued for the remainder of the District
effective from NOW until 11pm this evening.
Monsoonal moisture remains over the region today. Not much change to
the overall pattern will result in another chance for afternoon
showers and thunderstorms with moderate to heavy rainfall. Once again,
there will be a slight chance for severe weather, favoring eastern
portions of the District.
Dewpoints across the District have dropped only a few degrees this
morning, still in the mid to upper 50s, and will only mix down to the
low/mid 50s as daytime heating initiates convection over the high
country west of the District. Once storms make their way into the
foothills and onto the plains this afternoon, the District will have
between 1.15" - 1.25" of precipitable water (PWAT) available. Combined
with slow to stationary storm motion, will lead to an increased chance
for localized flooding today.
Hail and gusty outflow winds that reach severe thresholds will also be
possible with stronger storms. Outflow boundary-driven storm
initiation will be possible after the first round of storms today,
with potential for lingering thunderstorms around the District
remaining through the evening and into the night as an additional
round of late evening storms will be possible.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate thunderstorms
will produce rainfall rates of 0.3-0.8” total in 10- 30 minutes.
Strong to severe thunderstorms will have the potential to produce
rainfall rates of 0.8- 1.6” total of rain in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow-moving strong thunderstorm or a large
thunderstorm complex may result in up to 2.5” of rain in 45-60
minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 1100 PM
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 1100 PM
200 PM TO 1000 PM
DIA
1
Current TO 1100 PM
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Denver County
1
Current TO 1100 PM
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Adams County
1
Current TO 1100 PM
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Douglas County
2
Current TO 1100 PM
200 PM TO 800 PM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 1100 PM
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Jefferson County
2
Current TO 1100 PM
200 PM TO 800 PM
Boulder County
2
Current TO 1100 PM
200 PM TO 800 PM
Arvada
1
Current TO 1100 PM
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 1100 PM
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Lakewood
1
Current TO 1100 PM
200 PM TO 1000 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 1100 PM TUE
0.3" (75%) to 0.8" (50%) to 1.6" (25%)
ISSUED
Arapahoe
Current TO 1100 PM TUE
0.3" (75%) to 0.8" (50%) to 1.6" (25%)
ISSUED
Boulder
Current TO 1100 PM TUE
0.3" (75%) to 0.8" (50%) to 1.6" (25%)
ISSUED
Broomfield
Current TO 1100 PM TUE
0.3" (75%) to 0.8" (50%) to 1.6" (25%)
ISSUED
Denver
Current TO 1100 PM TUE
0.3" (75%) to 0.8" (50%) to 1.6" (25%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 1100 PM TUE
0.3" (75%) to 0.8" (50%) to 1.6" (25%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 1100 PM TUE
0.3" (75%) to 0.8" (50%) to 1.6" (25%)
ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 1100 PM TUE
0.3" (75%) to 0.8" (50%) to 1.6" (25%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 1100 PM TUE
0.3" (75%) to 0.8" (50%) to 1.6" (25%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 1100 PM TUE
0.3" (75%) to 0.8" (50%) to 1.6" (25%)
ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 month, 2 weeks