May 2023 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 115 PM Wed May 31, 2023 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT Message 1’s have been issued for the entire District and will be valid until 10:00pm this evening. Thunderstorms have initiated over the foothills and will begin to spread out onto the plains over the next couple hours. Thunderstorm coverage will be widely scattered with typical weak to moderate thunderstorms producing light to moderate rain and gusty winds. Stronger thunderstorms will be capable of producing brief heavy rainfall and may become severe with large hail and winds in excess of 50mph. A nearly stationary thunderstorm that forms along a gust front or wind convergence boundary will produce the greatest threat for an extended period of heavy rain today that may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. 1-3 rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected to move through the District into the evening. Best chances for moderate to strong thunderstorms will be through 9 or 10pm then additional showers and weaker thunderstorms will be possible into the early overnight period. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.3” of rain in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.3-0.8” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A nearly stationary strong thunderstorm may result in up to 1.5” of rain in 45-75 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 100 PM TO 1000 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM Jefferson County 1 100 PM TO 1000 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM Broomfield County 1 100 PM TO 1000 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM Douglas County 1 100 PM TO 1000 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM Adams County 1 100 PM TO 1000 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM Denver County 1 100 PM TO 1000 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM DIA 1 100 PM TO 1000 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM Arapahoe County 1 100 PM TO 1000 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM the City of Aurora 1 100 PM TO 1000 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM Arvada 1 100 PM TO 1000 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM Wheat Ridge 1 100 PM TO 1000 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM Lakewood 1 100 PM TO 1000 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.1" (85%) to 0.3" (55%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.1" (85%) to 0.3" (55%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.1" (85%) to 0.3" (55%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.1" (85%) to 0.3" (55%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.1" (85%) to 0.3" (55%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.1" (85%) to 0.3" (55%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.1" (85%) to 0.3" (55%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.1" (95%) to 0.3" (65%) to 0.8" (35%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.1" (95%) to 0.3" (65%) to 0.8" (35%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.1" (95%) to 0.3" (65%) to 0.8" (35%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 914 AM Wed May 31, 2023 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TODAY AND THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME EVEN MORE ACTIVE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND Temperatures will continue to run slightly above seasonal averages with highs this afternoon in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s over the plains. Normal high for Denver today is 78 degrees. Sunny skies this morning will become mostly cloudy to cloudy at times this afternoon as storms move off the foothills and onto the plains. Thunderstorms will first develop over the foothills between noon and 1pm. Upper level steering winds from SW to NE will push the storms onto the plains between 1-3pm. Widely scattered thunderstorms will then continue likely into the evening with best chances for thunderstorms through about 9pm. After 9pm additional rain showers and possibly a weak thunderstorm will remain possible beyond midnight into the early morning hours on Thursday. Typical weak to moderate thunderstorms today will produce light to moderate rain and gusty winds. Stronger thunderstorms will be capable of producing brief heavy rainfall and may become severe with large hail and winds in excess of 50mph. A nearly stationary thunderstorm that forms along a gust front or wind convergence boundary will produce the greatest threat for an extended period of heavy rain today. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.3” of rain in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.3-0.8” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A nearly stationary strong thunderstorm may result in up to 1.5” of rain in 45-75 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Temperatures will decrease and thunderstorm chances will increase daily from Thursday and Friday into Saturday. Thunderstorms characteristics will modify with each passing day as the threat for severe weather from stronger thunderstorms lowers while the threat for heavy rainfall and flooding increases. Saturday and Sunday appear to be the peak in the rain shower and thunderstorm activity. Precipitation may favor a soaking rain at times Saturday and Sunday versus thunderstorms as temperatures will be cool in the 60s. Should thunderstorms develop they will be very capable of producing heavy rain. Not much change in the weather pattern into next week as the onslaught of unusually wet weather continues this spring season. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (70%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Arapahoe 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (70%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Broomfield 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (70%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Denver 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (70%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Boulder 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (70%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Douglas 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (70%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Jefferson 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (70%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 1200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Douglas 1200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Jefferson 1200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 905 AM Tue May 30, 2023 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS Temperatures will continue to run slightly above normal over the District today with afternoon highs over the plains reaching the lower 80’s with 70’s in the Front Range foothills. Normal high for Denver today is 77 degrees. Sunny skies this morning will give way to partly to mostly cloudy skies this afternoon as clouds build and thunderstorms develop. Thunderstorms will initiate over the foothills by around noon then spread out onto the plains between 1-2pm. Thunderstorm coverage will be isolated with typical storms producing light to briefly moderate rain. Storms will strengthen along and E of I-25 where there is better surface moisture with some storms possibly becoming strong to severe with brief heavy rainfall, gusty winds and hail. By 8 or 9pm the storm activity is expected to have moved to the E of the District. Generally, 1-2 rounds of storms are expected but with isolated coverage the storms will be hit or miss. Best chances for brief moderate to heavy rain will favor eastern areas of the District with lesser chances into the foothills. Upper level steering winds will result in typical storm motions from WSW to ENE at 15-20mph. Thunderstorms that form along an outflow boundary may result in some storms moving more slowly or erratically before being carried away by the upper level winds. After 8 or 9pm the thunderstorm activity is expected to have moved E of the District with dry conditions developing for the later evening and overnight period. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2” of rain in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rate of 0.2-0.5” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving or briefly stationary strong thunderstorm along an outflow boundary may result in rainfall rates of 0.3-0.7” in 10-30 minutes and up to 1.0” of rain in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: A slight increase in thunderstorm activity is expected Wednesday with widely scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening. Stronger storms may become severe with hail/gusty winds and carry the potential for brief heavy rain. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms on Thursday with cooler temperatures and the threat for heavy rainfall increasing. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely on Friday and Saturday with stronger storms capable of producing heavy rain that may lead to excessive runoff. Temperatures will be below normal and may struggle to reach 70 degrees on Friday and Saturday. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) MOD Arapahoe 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) MOD Boulder 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) LOW Broomfield 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (70%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Denver 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) MOD Douglas 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) MOD Jefferson 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (70%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Douglas 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Jefferson 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 502 PM Mon May 29, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- GUST FRONT FROM THE SOUTHEAST HAS INCREASED STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON A gust front from the southeast has moved into the District triggering a line of storms along north/northeastern portions of the District at this time. These storms will likely be pulse-like, with some moderate to brief heavy rain. The largest threat from these storms will be a quick 0.5” in 10-30 minutes, rather than any long-lasting rainfall. This will result in an increase to a LOW chance for Message 1’s to be issued this afternoon and into the early evening. The best chance for storms will be now through 8pm with skies gradually clearing as the sun sets. Overnight lows will dip into the upper 40’s to low 50’s on the plains with mid 40’s along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and isolated weak thunderstorms will produce TR-0.25” in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong thunderstorm could produce 0.25-0.50” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stationary thunderstorm formed along an outflow boundary, or training of moderate to heavy rain showers has the potential to produce up to 1.0” in 60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Afternoon and evening storm chances will continue throughout the week, with likely a low threat for heavy rainfall in the upcoming days. Similar conditions remain in place tomorrow with high temperatures around 80 degrees. Best chance for storms will be the typical 2-8pm with chances decreasing into the later evening. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 800 PM MON Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Arapahoe Current TO 800 PM MON Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Boulder Current TO 800 PM MON Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Broomfield Current TO 800 PM MON Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Denver Current TO 800 PM MON Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas Current TO 800 PM MON Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 800 PM MON Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 800 PM MON Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas Current TO 800 PM MON Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 800 PM MON Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 855 AM Mon May 29, 2023 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- TEMPERATURES INCREASE SLIGHTLY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS Temperatures will increase slightly over the District today with afternoon highs topping out in the low to mid 80’s over the plains which is about 5 degrees above normal. The normal high for Denver today is 77 degrees. Most of the thunderstorm activity this afternoon is expected to remain to the N of the District but there will still be a slight chance for an isolated thunderstorm or two. Storms that manage to develop today will generally produce gusty winds and light rain/sprinkles, but a stronger storm could produce a brief burst of moderate rain over a small geographical area. The majority of the District will end up on the drier side today. Best chances for thunderstorm activity will be between 1pm and sunset. Upper level steering winds are from W to E at around 20mph. After 8 or 9pm dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the evening and overnight period. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and isolated weak to briefly moderate thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2” of rain. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Outflow from storms to the N and NE of the District push back westward increasing surface moisture resulting in a briefly strong thunderstorm with the potential to produce 0.2-0.5” of rain in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: A slight uptick in moisture on Tuesday and the aid of a weak upper level disturbance will lead to a few more storms with widely scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms will generally produce light to brief moderate rain and possibly some hail. Temperatures will be similar to today. Moisture increases further on Wednesday and storms should be more numerous in the afternoon and evening with some storms potentially producing heavy rainfall and severe weather. Temperatures will back off a few degrees with increased cloud cover. Cooler still for Thursday and a good chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, some of which may contain heavy rain. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (15%) NONE Arapahoe 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Boulder 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (15%) NONE Broomfield 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Denver 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (15%) NONE Douglas 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (15%) NONE Jefferson 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (15%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 859 AM Sun May 28, 2023 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A REDUCTION IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TODAY Temperatures will be at or slightly above normal over the District today with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. The normal high for Denver today is 77 degrees. A reduction in thunderstorm activity is expected today compared to previous days with isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Overall, there is a decrease in moisture at the surface and aloft which will result in typical storms only producing light to briefly moderate rain. There is a low chance of a stronger storm should a moisture boundary push back to the W during the afternoon. Should a stronger storm be able to develop brief heavy rain will be possible as well as more hail. Storms that develop today will move from WSW to ENE at around 20mph. The relatively fast storm motions will also help to reduce point rainfall amounts today. The best chances for thunderstorms will be between 1-8pm. Thunderstorms will initialize over the foothills first then move onto the plains after 2pm with some areas likely missing out on storm activity today. After 8 or 9pm conditions are expected to dry out for the remainder of the evening and overnight period. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.1” of rain. Moderate to briefly strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.1-0.4” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, slower moving thunderstorm may result in rainfall rates of 0.3-0.7” in 10-30 minutes and up to 1.0” in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Similar setup on Monday with isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms with typical storms producing light to briefly moderate rain. A stronger storm cannot be completely ruled out. Temperatures Monday will climb to above normal with highs in the lower 80’s over the plains. Thunderstorm activity will begin to increase Tuesday and increase further on Wednesday and Thursday with better chances for stronger storms capable of producing heavy rainfall and possibly severe weather. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (15%) LOW Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (15%) LOW Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (15%) LOW Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (15%) LOW Boulder 130 PM TO 800 PM Trace (70%) to 0.2" (35%) to 0.4" (15%) LOW Douglas 130 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.2" (35%) to 0.4" (15%) LOW Jefferson 130 PM TO 800 PM Trace (70%) to 0.2" (35%) to 0.4" (15%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (20%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (20%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (20%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 933 PM Sat May 27, 2023 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9:30PM/ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE POSSIBLE Message 1’s have been allowed to expire at 9:30pm as the threat of heavy rainfall has ended for the day. The surface wind convergence has washed out and storms are pushing eastward. Now that we are after sunset temperatures are cooling and no additional strong thunderstorm activity is expected this evening. Isolated rain showers and possibly a weak thunderstorm cannot be ruled out until around midnight. Best chances for additional shower activity will be over southern and eastern areas of the District as drier air makes pushes in from the west. A slight decrease in thunderstorm activity is expected on Sunday but the storms that form in the afternoon will still be capable of becoming strong to severe and will have the potential to produce brief heavy rainfall and large hail. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers will produce a trace to 0.1” of rain. An isolated weak thunderstorm will have the potential to produce 0.1-0.3” in 10-30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Boulder Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Denver Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 754 PM Sat May 27, 2023 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 9:30PM FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT Message 1’s have been extended until 9:30pm for the entire District. Surface wind convergence resides over the District currently and is generating new thunderstorm development. Stronger thunderstorms may still produce moderate to brief heavy rainfall into the evening as well as hail and gusty winds. A large thunderstorm or training of thunderstorm cells will be the most likely culprits for extended periods of heavy rain over the next 1-2 hours. Typical storms will move from SW to NE at around 20mph, but stronger storms may move more slowly. Thunderstorm activity is expected to decrease between 9-10pm and eventually move east of the District. If thunderstorms still persist past 9:30pm Message 1’s may be extended further. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.3" of rain. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.3-0.8” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow moving strong thunderstorm or large thunderstorm cell may result in up to 1.5” of rain in 45-60 minutes COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Arapahoe County 1 319 PM TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 900 PM the City of Aurora 1 319 PM TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 900 PM DIA 1 319 PM TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 900 PM Denver County 1 319 PM TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 900 PM Adams County 1 319 PM TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 900 PM Douglas County 1 319 PM TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 900 PM Broomfield County 1 319 PM TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 900 PM Jefferson County 1 319 PM TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 900 PM Boulder County 1 319 PM TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 900 PM Lakewood 1 319 PM TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 900 PM Wheat Ridge 1 319 PM TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 900 PM Arvada 1 319 PM TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 900 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 930 PM SAT 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 930 PM SAT 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 930 PM SAT 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 930 PM SAT 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 930 PM SAT 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 930 PM SAT 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 930 PM SAT 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 930 PM SAT 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 930 PM SAT 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 930 PM SAT 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 442 PM Sat May 27, 2023 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S NOW ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT Message 1’s now includes all areas of the District and will be valid until 8:00pm this evening. Outflow boundaries from previous storms are pushing moisture back to the W and is increasing the surface moisture which will help fuel thunderstorms. Northern and eastern areas of the District still have better chances for a stronger storm this afternoon and early evening as the moisture is more abundant in this zone. Storms over the foothills are expected to be weaker than plains storms. Much like the past few days the stronger storms will be capable of producing hail as well as brief moderate to heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff roadways. Most storms will be weak to moderate with just a slight chance for a stronger thunderstorm. Best chances for thunderstorms will be over the next few hours then chances decrease after 7:30pm. Typical storms will move from SW to NE at around 20mph and the relatively fast storm motions will help to reduce point rainfall amounts. A large thunderstorm or a slower moving thunderstorm will be the culprits for extended periods of heavy rain should they develop. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.3" of rain. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.3-0.9” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow moving strong thunderstorm or large thunderstorm cell may result in up to 1.5” of rain in 45-60 minutes COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Arvada 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM DIA 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 800 PM SAT 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.9" (20%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 800 PM SAT 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (35%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 800 PM SAT 0.1" (85%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (25%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 800 PM SAT 0.1" (85%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (25%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 800 PM SAT 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.9" (20%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 800 PM SAT 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 800 PM SAT 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 800 PM SAT 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.9" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 800 PM SAT 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.9" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 800 PM SAT 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.9" (10%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 332 PM Sat May 27, 2023 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT Message 1’s have been issued for Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield and Denver Counties and will be valid until 8:00pm this evening. Moisture has scoured out over S and SW areas of the District over Douglas and Jefferson Counties with higher moisture values over northern areas of the District. Northern areas of the District will have better chances for a stronger storm this afternoon and early evening. Much like the past few days the stronger storms will be capable of producing hail as well as brief moderate to heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff roadways. Best chances for thunderstorms will be over the next 3-4 hours then chances decrease after 7:00pm. Typical storms will move from SW to NE at around 20mph and the relatively fast storm motions will help to reduce point rainfall amounts. A large thunderstorm or a slower moving thunderstorm will be the culprits for extended periods of heavy rain. Should an outflow boundary from northern storms push back to the south and replenish surface moisture additional Message 1’s may be issued for Jefferson and Douglas Counties. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.3" of rain. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.3-0.9” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow moving strong thunderstorm or large thunderstorm cell may result in up to 1.5” of rain in 45-60 minutes COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Broomfield County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM DIA 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 800 PM SAT 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.9" (20%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 800 PM SAT 0.1" (70%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.9" (10%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 800 PM SAT 0.1" (85%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (25%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 800 PM SAT 0.1" (85%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (25%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 800 PM SAT 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.9" (20%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 800 PM SAT 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.9" (5%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 800 PM SAT 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.9" (5%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 800 PM SAT 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.9" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 800 PM SAT 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.9" (10%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 800 PM SAT 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.9" (10%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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