Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 902 AM Mon May 1, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
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Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
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SEASONABLE TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON RAIN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS
Today is the first day of the MHFD season and currently temperatures
are in the mid 40’s under mostly sunny skies. Seasonable highs are
expected this afternoon, reaching the low to mid 70’s with mild and
dry conditions throughout most of the day. Clouds will be on the
increase this afternoon along the foothills, bringing a slight chance
for a few scattered rain showers along the higher terrain between
2-8pm, with a very slight chance for a rumble of thunder or two under
a better developed cell. Any rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will
produce minimal, if any, measurable precipitation, and should be
limited to areas west of I-25 as any shower activity likely mixing out
onto the plains. Skies will clear into the evening hours. Overnight
lows will stay relatively warm, dropping into the mid to upper 40’s
by daybreak Tuesday.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated
thunderstorms will produce a TR-0.10” in 10-30 minutes. A moderate
rain showers/isolated thunderstorm could produce 0.10-0.20” in 10-30
minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: An anchored rain shower/isolated thunderstorm, or
training of rain showers, has the potential to produce 0.20-0.50” in
45-60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: An active week weather wise to start the season, however
the threat of heavy rainfall should remain minimal at this time. There
will be a better chance for widespread rain showers starting tomorrow,
with some thunderstorm activity likely for the District in the
afternoon and early evening. Similar conditions remain in place
Wednesday with a good chance for afternoon rain showers/thunderstorms.
These chances remain Through the rest of the week with
rain/thunderstorm chances both Thursday and Friday.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Arapahoe
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Boulder
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Broomfield
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Denver
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Douglas
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Jefferson
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (15%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Douglas
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Jefferson
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 7 months