Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 1200 PM Wed May 24, 2023
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT
Message 1’s have been issued for the entire District and will be
valid until 8:00pm this evening.
Abundant surface moisture with dew points in the low to mid 50’s and
a passing upper level disturbance will result in thunderstorms
developing initiating over the next 1-2 hours over the higher terrain
to the W and S of the District. One round of moderate to strong
thunderstorms is expected through the course of the afternoon with a
weaker round possible in the evening. Typical thunderstorms will be
relatively slow moving from SW to NE at around 15mph, but stronger
thunderstorm cells may move slower and against the grain from NW to
SE.
Strong thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall that
may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. After 8:00pm
the thunderstorm activity is expected to have pushed east of the
District with conditions drying out into the later evening.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak thunderstorms will produce
rainfall rates of 0.2-0.5” of rain in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to
strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates
of 0.5-1.3” in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow moving strong thunderstorm or training of
thunderstorm cells may result in up to 2.0” of rain in 45-60
minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
the City of Aurora
1
1200 PM TO 800 PM
100 PM TO 700 PM
Arapahoe County
1
1200 PM TO 800 PM
100 PM TO 700 PM
DIA
1
1200 PM TO 800 PM
100 PM TO 700 PM
Denver County
1
1200 PM TO 800 PM
100 PM TO 700 PM
Adams County
1
1200 PM TO 800 PM
100 PM TO 700 PM
Douglas County
1
1200 PM TO 800 PM
100 PM TO 700 PM
Broomfield County
1
1200 PM TO 800 PM
100 PM TO 700 PM
Jefferson County
1
1200 PM TO 800 PM
100 PM TO 700 PM
Boulder County
1
1200 PM TO 800 PM
100 PM TO 700 PM
Lakewood
1
1200 PM TO 800 PM
100 PM TO 700 PM
Arvada
1
1200 PM TO 800 PM
100 PM TO 700 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
1200 PM TO 800 PM
100 PM TO 700 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
100 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%)
ISSUED
Arapahoe
100 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%)
ISSUED
Boulder
100 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (20%)
ISSUED
Broomfield
100 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (20%)
ISSUED
Denver
100 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%)
ISSUED
Douglas
100 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
100 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (20%)
ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 800 PM WED
0.1" (95%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (20%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 800 PM WED
0.1" (95%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (20%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 800 PM WED
0.1" (95%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (20%)
ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 7 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 1039 AM Wed May 24, 2023
Forecaster: Laura Smith
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE DISTRICT
High pressure ridging across the central US will amplify today as
the next weather system drops into the Great Basin. This pattern will
position southwesterly upper-level flow across Colorado while low
level moisture builds east of the Continental Divide. High
temperatures will reach the mid to upper 70s, dew points in the upper
40s to low 50s, through the afternoon and evening.
These conditions will support an unstable environment, favorable for
thunderstorm development across the area by the mid to late afternoon.
Forecast soundings reveal weak wind shear profiles, resulting in
slow-moving westerly storm motions. Heavy rain may persist for an
extended period of time with special emphasis on areas east of I-25
around the convergence zone. Storms are expected to dissipate by the
late evening hours.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical thunderstorms will
produce a 0.25” to 0.75” in 10-30 minutes. A strong thunderstorm
could produce 0.75” to 1.00” in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Anchored or training thunderstorms have the
potential to produce 1.00”-1.75” in 45-60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Similar conditions are likely tomorrow as temperatures
reach the upper 70s to low 80s followed by widely scattered late
afternoon to evening thunderstorms, with a potential for heavy rain
once again. Looking ahead, the upper-level pattern remains in place
through the weekend supporting high temperatures around 80°F and
afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.25" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1" (25%)
HIGH
Arapahoe
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.25" (90%) to 0.75" (60%) to 1" (30%)
HIGH
Boulder
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.25" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1" (25%)
HIGH
Broomfield
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.25" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1" (25%)
HIGH
Denver
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.25" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1" (25%)
HIGH
Douglas
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.25" (90%) to 0.75" (60%) to 1" (30%)
HIGH
Jefferson
200 PM TO 800 PM
0.25" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1" (25%)
HIGH
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
100 PM TO 700 PM
0.25" (75%) to 0.75" (50%) to 1" (25%)
HIGH
Douglas
100 PM TO 700 PM
0.25" (90%) to 0.75" (60%) to 1" (30%)
HIGH
Jefferson
100 PM TO 700 PM
0.25" (90%) to 0.75" (60%) to 1" (30%)
HIGH
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 7 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 846 AM Tue May 23, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
HAZY AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDTIONS THIS AFTERNOON
The weak ridge of high-pressure will slowly start to break down
today as a more active weather pattern starts to take hold over the
region through the rest of the week. Upper-level winds will shift more
westerly into the afternoon, which could help limit storm activity
today. However, a slight chance will remain for a few rain
showers/isolated thunderstorms, mainly for the foothills and along the
Palmer Divide.
Any showers that do develop will generally be high based, resulting in
minimal rain along the foothills and Palmer Divide this afternoon and
early evening. A very slight chance any of these showers make their
way onto the plains as surface dewpoints are once again expected to
mix out into the upper 30’s to around 40 degrees this afternoon.
Overnight lows will drop into the upper 40's to around 50 degrees on
the plains with low to mid 40’s along the foothills. Mild and dry
conditions expected through the overnight and into Wednesday.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will
produce TR-0.10" in 10-30 minutes. A weak to moderate thunderstorm
will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.10-0.30" in
10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow moving or stationary thunderstorm, or
training of rain showers/thunderstorms may result in rainfall rates of
up to 0.6" in 45-60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: A much better chance for widespread rain showers and
thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and early evening with a slight
chance some of the storms become severe, favoring areas east of I-25
at this time. A few linger showers possible through midnight, with
skies gradually clearing through the overnight. Upper-level winds
shift NW Thursday, with elevated surface moisture and decent
upper-level support, another good chance for widespread rain
showers/thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening as well. A
decreased chance for severe weather, however a couple of strong
thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
300 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%)
NONE
Arapahoe
300 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%)
NONE
Boulder
300 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Broomfield
300 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%)
NONE
Denver
300 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%)
NONE
Douglas
300 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Jefferson
300 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Douglas
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Jefferson
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 7 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 839 AM Mon May 22, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
SUNNY & HAZY WITH GENREALLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY
A weak ridge of high-pressure holds over the region today, likley
leading to mild and dry conditions throughout the day. Hazy skies will
remain in place as wildfire smoke from Canada continues to move into
the region.
Generally dry conditions are expected today, with a slight chance for
a few high-based rain showers along the foothills and Palmer Divide
this afternoon and early evening. Minimal, if any chances these
showers make their way onto the plains as surface dewpoints expected
to mix out into the upper 30’s to around 40 degrees this afternoon
resulting in any foothills storms to mix out fairly quickly.
Overnight lows will drop to around 50 degrees on the plains with mid
40’s along the foothills. Mild and dry conditions expected through
the overnight and into Monday.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will
produce TR-0.05" in 10-30 minutes. A weak thunderstorm will have the
potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.0.5-0.2" in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow moving or stationary thunderstorm, or
training of rain showers/thunderstorms may result in rainfall rates of
up to 0.5" in 45-60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: A relatively weak disturbance moves into the region
Tuesday afternoon, bringing a slightly better chance for scattered
rain showers/isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, with
a very slight chance for heavy rainfall at this time. A much better
chance for widespread storms Wednesday with a good chance for moderate
to heavy rainfall in the afternoon and evening leading to a good
chance for some localized flooding. A slight chance some of these
storms become severe, bringing gusty winds 60+mph and hail up to 1”.
Similar conditions remain in place Thursday, however the threat for
severe weather decreases significantly.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (5%) to 0.05" (1%) to 0.1" (0%)
NONE
Arapahoe
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (5%) to 0.05" (1%) to 0.1" (0%)
NONE
Boulder
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (5%) to 0.05" (1%) to 0.1" (0%)
NONE
Broomfield
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (5%) to 0.05" (1%) to 0.1" (0%)
NONE
Denver
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (5%) to 0.05" (1%) to 0.1" (0%)
NONE
Douglas
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (5%) to 0.05" (1%) to 0.1" (0%)
NONE
Jefferson
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (5%) to 0.05" (1%) to 0.1" (0%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%)
NONE
Douglas
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%)
NONE
Jefferson
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.05" (10%) to 0.1" (5%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 7 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 845 AM Sun May 21, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
WARMER TODAY WITH A FEW HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
A weak ridge of high-pressure will build over the region today
leading to mostly mild and dry conditions. Hazy skies due to wildfire
smoke from Canada will continue to impact the area today and into
tomorrow.
A few high-based showers/isolated thunderstorms could form along the
higher terrain today, onto the foothills and along the Palmer Divide.
Similar to yesterday, these storms will likely remain anchored along
the foothills and Palmer Divide with minimal impact for areas within
the District. A few weak showers could move onto the I-25 corridor
today, however most, if not all precipitation will struggle to reach
the surface as dew points mix out into the mid 30’s this afternoon.
The best chance for shower activity will be this afternoon and early
evening between 1-7pm with skies clearing into the evening.
Overnight lows will drop to around 50 degrees on the plains with mid
40’s along the foothills. Mild and dry conditions expected through
the overnight and into Monday.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will
produce TR-0.1" in 10-30 minutes. A weak to moderate thunderstorm will
have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.1-0.3" in 10-30
minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow moving or stationary thunderstorm, or
training of rain showers/thunderstorms may result in rainfall rates of
up to 0.6" in 45-60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Drier conditions remain in place Monday as the small
high-pressure ridge holds throughout most of the day as high
temperatures reach the mid to upper 70’s. A very slight chance for
high-based rain showers/isolated thunderstorms Monday, with storm
activity once again favoring the higher terrain. A disturbance moves
into the region Tuesday, bringing a better chance for scattered rain
showers/isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, with a
very slight chance for heavy rainfall at this time. A better chance
for widespread storms Wednesday with a good chance for moderate to
heavy rainfall in the afternoon and evening leading to a good chance
for some localized flooding.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Arapahoe
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Boulder
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Broomfield
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Denver
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Douglas
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Jefferson
200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
100 PM TO 600 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%)
NONE
Douglas
100 PM TO 600 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%)
NONE
Jefferson
100 PM TO 600 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 7 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 846 AM Sat May 20, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
CLOUDY/HAZY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ONE
AGAIN LIMITED TO THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE
Not much overall change in the weather pattern as cloudy and hazy
conditions remain in place this morning. Skies are expected to
gradually clear through the afternoon with a good chance for afternoon
and evening rain showers/isolated thunderstorms along the higher
terrain and into the foothills. There will be a slight chance a few of
these storms will move onto the plains and into the District this
afternoon and into the evening.
The best chance for storms in the District will be from 3pm through
9pm, with a few lingering rain showers possible through 10pm before
skies clear into the overnight. Typical rain showers will only produce
a TR-0.2”, however, a slower moving thunderstorm could have the
potential to produce isolated higher amounts due to weak steering
winds aloft. Due to these weak steering winds, a low chance will
remain in place for isolated heavy rainfall this afternoon and
evening, favoring areas along the foothills and southeastern portions
of the District at this time.
Skies gradually clear through the overnight and into daybreak Sunday.
Mild and dry conditions are expected after 10pm and into Sunday as
overnight lows drop to around 50 degrees for the plains with mid to
upper 40’s along the foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will
produce rainfall amounts of TR-0.2” in 10-30 minutes. A weak
thunderstorm will produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.5” in 10-30
minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate to strong, slow moving or nearly
stationary thunderstorm has the potential to produce heavy rainfall of
up to 1.0” in 45-60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Similar conditions remain in place Sunday, however,
drier air aloft should limit the chance for any heavy rainfall. Not
much change Monday, with another chance for afternoon/eve rain showers
and isolated thunderstorms. A better chance for impactful rain
showers/thunderstorms Tuesday with a slight chance of severe weather
in the afternoon and evening including large hail, gusty winds and
heavy rainfall leading to localized flash flooding.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
300 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Arapahoe
300 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Boulder
300 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Broomfield
300 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Denver
300 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Douglas
300 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Jefferson
300 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (25%)
LOW
Douglas
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (25%)
LOW
Jefferson
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (25%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 7 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 926 AM Fri May 19, 2023
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
CLOUDY/HAZY/COOL AND SHOWERY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY LIMITED TO
THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE
Conditions will be cloudy to mostly cloudy and cool today with hazy
conditions due to smoke from wildfires in Canada being drawn into NE
Colorado by northerly winds. Temperatures will reach the lower 60’s
for highs over the plains with 50’s in the Front Range foothills.
Normal high for Denver today is 73 degrees.
Areas of mist and light rain showers will be possible through the
morning favoring areas closer to the foothills (W of I-25) with
relatively light amounts. Thunderstorm chances this afternoon will
hinge upon if we see a break in the clouds and get a little more
warmth and thunderstorms are not expected today over the plains but
cannot be completely ruled out this afternoon should an extended break
in the clouds develop. Better chances for an isolated weak to moderate
thunderstorm will reside over the foothills and Palmer Divide. The
outside threat for a thunderstorm will result in a low Message
potential today as any thunderstorms will be capable of producing
briefly heavy rain.
Isolated to widely scattered rain showers will be the most likely
outcome through the afternoon as cloud cover is expected to be
persistent. Rain showers will produce minor rainfall amounts through
the day with most areas under 0.5” of total accumulation over a 10
to 12-hour period. Conditions dry out this evening by 8 or 9pm with
clouds dissipating overnight.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers will produce
rainfall amounts of TR-0.2” in 30-60 minutes. Weak thunderstorms
will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.5” in
10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: More sunshine and daytime heating occurs with
moderate to strong thunderstorms developing with the potential to
produce heavy rainfall of 0.3-0.8” in 10-30 minutes and up to 1.2”
in 45-60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: We will wake up to mostly sunny skies on Saturday and
with more sunshine temperatures will warm into the 70’s over the
plains with 60’s in the foothills. Showers and thunderstorms will
develop over the higher terrain to the W of the District on Saturday
afternoon but upper level steering winds are light and the majority of
the activity will remain over the mountains and foothills with low
chance for any thunderstorm activity to reach the I-25 corridor.
Should a thunderstorm develop over the plains, slow storm motions and
residual moisture will result in storms having the potential to
produce heavy rainfall.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 900 PM FRI
Trace (95%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Arapahoe
Current TO 900 PM FRI
Trace (95%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Boulder
Current TO 900 PM FRI
Trace (100%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Broomfield
Current TO 900 PM FRI
Trace (95%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Denver
Current TO 900 PM FRI
Trace (95%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Douglas
Current TO 900 PM FRI
Trace (100%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Jefferson
Current TO 900 PM FRI
Trace (100%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 900 PM FRI
Trace (100%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.5" (25%)
LOW
Douglas
Current TO 900 PM FRI
Trace (100%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.5" (25%)
LOW
Jefferson
Current TO 900 PM FRI
Trace (100%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.5" (25%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 7 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 830 PM Thu May 18, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9PM
Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 9:00 PM as the threat of
heavy rainfall has come to an end.
A few lingering light, to briefly moderate rain showers continue to
impact portions of the District currently, however the threat of heavy
rainfall has ended for the evening. The best chance for continued
light shower activity will be from now through midnight, with the best
chance for precipitation along the foothills through the rest of the
evening. A slight chance for a few lingering off and on rain showers
through daybreak tomorrow, with minimal additional rainfall expected
at this time.
Overnight lows will drop to around 50 degrees, with mid to upper
40’s along the foothills. The chance for rains showers continues
tomorrow, with isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon, although the
threat for heavy rainfall will be minimal at best.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will
produce a trace to 0.1” in 10-30 minutes. A moderate rain shower
could produce 0.1-0.3” in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving rain shower, isolated
thunderstorm, or training of rain showers could potentially produce
0.3-0.8” in under 60 minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Boulder County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Douglas County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Adams County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Denver County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 900 PM
DIA
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 900 PM
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Arvada
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Lakewood
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 900 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 200 AM FRI
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%)
ISSUED
Arapahoe
Current TO 200 AM FRI
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%)
ISSUED
Boulder
Current TO 200 AM FRI
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%)
ISSUED
Broomfield
Current TO 200 AM FRI
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%)
ISSUED
Denver
Current TO 200 AM FRI
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 200 AM FRI
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 200 AM FRI
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%)
ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 200 AM FRI
Trace (80%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (20%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 200 AM FRI
Trace (80%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (20%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 200 AM FRI
Trace (80%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (20%)
ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 7 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 1110 AM Thu May 18, 2023
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT
Message 1’s have been issued for the entire District and will be
valid until 9:00pm this evening. The clouds have decreased this
morning and temperatures are already reaching the low to mid 60’s
and will likely warm a bit more before cloud cover increases again and
storms begin to develop. Daytime heating in tandem with abundant
surface moisture with dew points in the lower 50’s will result in
thunderstorms developing over the next few hours and remaining
possible into the evening. Best chances for thunderstorm activity
through the afternoon and early evening between noon and 8pm. With all
of the rain recently the ground is near saturation for many areas and
thunderstorms today will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall
which may result in excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding.
Typical showers and thunderstorms will move from W to E at 15-20mph
but stronger storms may move more slowly or become right movers and
track more from the NW to SE. After 8 or 9pm the chances for
thunderstorms will diminish with cooling temperatures and light rain
showers are expected to continue periodically overnight into early
Friday morning.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak
thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.5” of rain. Moderate to strong
thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of
0.5-1.5” in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving strong thunderstorm or a large
thunderstorm complex may result in up to 2.0” of rain in 45-60
minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Lakewood
1
1130 AM TO 900 PM
1230 PM TO 800 PM
Arvada
1
1130 AM TO 900 PM
1230 PM TO 800 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
1130 AM TO 900 PM
1230 PM TO 800 PM
the City of Aurora
1
1130 AM TO 900 PM
1230 PM TO 800 PM
Denver County
1
1130 AM TO 900 PM
1230 PM TO 800 PM
DIA
1
1130 AM TO 900 PM
1230 PM TO 800 PM
Arapahoe County
1
1130 AM TO 900 PM
1230 PM TO 800 PM
Adams County
1
1130 AM TO 900 PM
1230 PM TO 800 PM
Boulder County
1
1130 AM TO 900 PM
1230 PM TO 800 PM
Jefferson County
1
1130 AM TO 900 PM
1230 PM TO 800 PM
Broomfield County
1
1130 AM TO 900 PM
1230 PM TO 800 PM
Douglas County
1
1130 AM TO 900 PM
1230 PM TO 800 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
1200 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (20%)
ISSUED
Arapahoe
1200 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (85%) to 0.5" (55%) to 1.5" (25%)
ISSUED
Boulder
1200 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (85%) to 0.5" (55%) to 1.5" (25%)
ISSUED
Broomfield
1200 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (20%)
ISSUED
Denver
1200 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (20%)
ISSUED
Douglas
1200 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
1200 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (85%) to 0.5" (55%) to 1.5" (25%)
ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 900 PM THU
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 900 PM THU
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 900 PM THU
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 7 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 928 AM Thu May 18, 2023
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
CLOUDY/COOL WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL
Conditions will be cloudy and cool over the District today with
afternoon highs expected to only reach the lower 60’s across the
plains with 50’s in the Front Range foothills. Multiple rounds of
rain showers are expected with widely scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon and early evening.
The strength of the thunderstorms this afternoon will depend upon how
much sunshine/heating is available through the first half of the day.
More sun or thinning clouds equals warmer temperatures and stronger
storms this afternoon, thicker clouds may result in weaker and more
isolated thunderstorms. Either way there will be showers and
thunderstorms that develop today with best chances for thunderstorm
activity through the afternoon and early evening between 1-8pm. With
all of the rain recently the ground is near saturation for many areas
and thunderstorms today will have the potential to produce heavy
rainfall which may result in excessive runoff and possibly flooding
resulting in a high Message potential today and Messages will likely
be issued by around noon.
Typical showers and thunderstorms will move from W to E at 15-20mph
but stronger storms may move more slowly or become right movers and
track more from the NW to SE. After 8pm the chances for thunderstorms
will diminish with cooling temperatures and light rain showers are
expected to continue periodically overnight into early Friday morning.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak
thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.5” of rain. Moderate to strong
thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of
0.5-1.5” in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving strong thunderstorm or a large
thunderstorm complex may result in up to 2.0” of rain in 45-60
minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Rain showers may linger into Friday morning with
additional showers and widely scattered thunderstorms expected to
develop in the afternoon. With ample moisture still in place
thunderstorms will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall but
coverage is expected to be less than today, and conditions will likely
clear out quicker in the evening. Highs Friday remain in the 60’s
for afternoon highs over the plains.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
1200 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (20%)
HIGH
Arapahoe
1200 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (85%) to 0.5" (55%) to 1.5" (25%)
HIGH
Boulder
1200 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (85%) to 0.5" (55%) to 1.5" (25%)
HIGH
Broomfield
1200 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (20%)
HIGH
Denver
1200 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (20%)
HIGH
Douglas
1200 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
HIGH
Jefferson
1200 PM TO 800 PM
0.1" (85%) to 0.5" (55%) to 1.5" (25%)
HIGH
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
1100 AM TO 800 PM
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
HIGH
Douglas
1100 AM TO 800 PM
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
HIGH
Jefferson
1100 AM TO 800 PM
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%)
HIGH
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 7 months