Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 819 PM Wed May 17, 2023
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD/HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THURSDAY
Conditions have been relatively quiet over the District through the
day today, but a cold front is on the approach and may generate
additional rain showers and widely scattered thunderstorms late this
evening into the early morning hours on Thursday. There are a few
showers and weak thunderstorms in the area currently and a
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out over the next couple hours, but
better chances for showers and thunderstorms look to arrive between
10pm and midnight. There will then be a risk for overnight shower and
thunderstorm activity through roughly 3 or 4am then any additional
precipitation is expected to be light into mid-morning Thursday.
Surface moisture will increase later this evening and overnight as the
front moves through with stronger thunderstorms having the potential
to produce moderate to briefly heavy rain resulting in a low Message
potential for the overnight period. Best chances for precipitation
over the next few hours will be south of I-70 then the better chances
for storm activity will shift to the N of I-70 after 10pm.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers will produce a
trace to 0.2” of rain in 15-45 minutes. Weak to moderate
thunderstorms will produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.5” in 10-30
minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm will have the potential to
produce rainfall rates of 0.3-0.7” in 10-30 minutes with a large
strong thunderstorm or training of thunderstorm cells capable of
producing up to 1.3" in 60 minutes or less.
A LOOK AHEAD: Tomorrow morning behind the cold front we will wake up
to cloudy skies with possibly a few light rain showers in the area.
Rain showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to become more numerous
Thursday afternoon and evening. The threat of thunderstorms and their
intensity will hinge upon temperatures/cloud cover and other factors,
but best chances will be in noon to 8pm time frame Thursday. Many
creeks and streams are running high compared to “normal” due to
recent rains or snow melt or a combination of both and should heavy
rainfall develop Thursday excessive runoff may occur quickly and flash
flooding is possible. Light rain showers continue likely at times
overnight Thursday into Friday morning. A cloudy and cool day Friday
with highs in the upper 50's to mid 60's with additional rain showers
and possibly an isolated thunderstorm. The cool temperatures Friday
may result in more showery conditions versus thunderstorms.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 400 AM THU
Trace (80%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (25%)
LOW
Arapahoe
Current TO 400 AM THU
Trace (90%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Boulder
Current TO 400 AM THU
Trace (90%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.5" (30%)
MOD
Broomfield
Current TO 400 AM THU
Trace (90%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.5" (30%)
MOD
Denver
Current TO 400 AM THU
Trace (90%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Douglas
Current TO 400 AM THU
Trace (90%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Jefferson
Current TO 400 AM THU
Trace (90%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.6" (25%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 400 AM THU
Trace (95%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.5" (30%)
MOD
Douglas
Current TO 400 AM THU
Trace (90%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Jefferson
Current TO 400 AM THU
Trace (90%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (25%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 7 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 918 AM Wed May 17, 2023
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS/FLASH
FLOOD THREAT INCREASES TOMORROW
Temperatures will continue to run above seasonal averages today with
afternoon highs reaching the upper 70’s to around 80 over the plains
with 60’s in the Front Range foothills. Normal high for Denver today
is 72 degrees. Sunny skies this morning will give way to a build-up of
convective clouds over the higher terrain by around noon and isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms will move over the plains during the
afternoon and evening.
The showers and thunderstorms that develop today will move from NW to
SE at 15-20mph and are expected to be brief in duration and generally
weak producing light to briefly moderate rain. Should a strong
thunderstorm develop brief heavy rainfall may occur, but the chances
look low with dew points dropping into the upper 30’s to lower
40’s this afternoon limiting the fuel for storms. Best chances for
thunderstorms will be between 2:00-9:00pm.
A cold front will be moving through overnight and may generate a light
rain shower or two after midnight into Thursday morning. Rainfall
amounts overnight will be minimal, generally 0.1” or less but the
cold front will usher in low level moisture and set the stage for a
more active weather day on Thursday with the potential for heavy
rainfall.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers will produce a
trace to 0.1” of rain in 10-30 minutes. Weak to moderate
thunderstorms will produce rainfall rates of 0.1-0.4” in 10-30
minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm will have the potential to
produce rainfall rates of 0.3-0.7” in 10-30 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Our next storm system will move into the area on
Thursday with cooler temperatures in the 60’s for highs under mostly
cloudy to cloudy skies. Rain showers are anticipated to develop and
become scattered Thursday afternoon and evening. The threat of
thunderstorms and their intensity will hinge upon temperatures/cloud
cover and other factors, but best chances will be in the afternoon and
early evening Thursday. Many creeks and streams are running high
compared to “normal” due to recent rains or snow melt or a
combination of both and should heavy rainfall develop Thursday
excessive runoff may occur quickly and flash flooding is possible.
Light rain showers continue likely at times overnight Thursday into
Friday morning. A cloudy and cool day Friday with highs in the upper
50's to mid 60's with additional rain showers and possibly an isolated
thunderstorm. The cool temperatures Friday may result in more showery
conditions versus thunderstorms.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (65%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.4" (10%)
LOW
Arapahoe
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (65%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.4" (10%)
LOW
Broomfield
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (65%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.4" (10%)
LOW
Denver
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (65%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.4" (10%)
LOW
Boulder
130 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.4" (15%)
LOW
Douglas
130 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.4" (15%)
LOW
Jefferson
130 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.4" (15%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
100 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.4" (20%)
LOW
Douglas
100 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.4" (20%)
LOW
Jefferson
100 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.4" (20%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 7 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 856 PM Tue May 16, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10PM
Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 10:00 PM as the threat of
heavy rainfall has come to an end.
All of the heavy rain showers and thunderstorms have moved eastward
and out of the District at this time. A few lingering light rain
showers for far SE portions of the District at this time, however they
will be moving out rather quickly.
Overnight will be mild and dry with lows around 50 degrees by daybreak
tomorrow.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No additinal rain showers
expected for the rest of the evening and through the overnight.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Boulder County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Douglas County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Adams County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Denver County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
DIA
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Arvada
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Lakewood
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 7 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 725 PM Tue May 16, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT
Message 1's have been issued for the entire District effective until
10pm this evening.
A gust front from the NE has moved through the District and initiated
thunderstorms along the foothills. These storms have moved off of the
foothills at this time and will move through the District over the
next couple of hours, resulting in a chances for some isolated heavy
rainfall. Storm motions will be from the NW to SE between 10-15mph as
these storms move out onto the eastern plains, which should help limit
point rainfall amounts. However, storms formed off and along outflow
boundaries will have the best chance for longer lasting heavy
rainfall.
The biggest threat for storms will be from now through 9pm. Rain
showers and thunderstorms should start to taper off after this round
of activity rolls through, with skies gradually clearing after 10pm.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated
thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.3" in 10-30 minutes. A Moderate to
strong thunderstorm will produce 0.3-0.8" in 10-30
minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow moving/stationary thunderstorm formed off
an outflow boundary,
or training of thunderstorm cells has the potential to produce up to
1.6" in under 60 minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
DIA
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Adams County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Denver County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Douglas County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Boulder County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Arvada
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Lakewood
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 900 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 1000 PM TUE
0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%)
ISSUED
Arapahoe
Current TO 1000 PM TUE
0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%)
ISSUED
Boulder
Current TO 1000 PM TUE
0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%)
ISSUED
Broomfield
Current TO 1000 PM TUE
0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%)
ISSUED
Denver
Current TO 1000 PM TUE
0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 1000 PM TUE
0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 1000 PM TUE
0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%)
ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 1000 PM TUE
0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (5%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 1000 PM TUE
0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (5%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 1000 PM TUE
0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (5%)
ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 7 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 907 AM Tue May 16, 2023
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
WARMER WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
With more sunshine through the morning today temperatures will warm
to just above seasonal averages this afternoon. Highs will top out
over the plains in the low to mid 70’s with 60’s in the Front
Range foothills. Normal high for Denver today is 71 degrees. Ample
moisture remains at the surface with dew points expected to remain in
the 40’s through the day and in combination with better daytime
heating there will be a build up of clouds this afternoon with
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms.
Showers and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will initiate
between 1-3pm and continue possible through 8 or 9pm. Typical storms
will move from NW to SE at 20-25mph and generally produce light to
briefly moderate rain. Should a strong thunderstorm be able to develop
heavy rainfall is possible but relatively fast storm motions will
result in brief duration helping to lower potential point rainfall
amounts but warranting a low Message potential. After 9pm shower and
thunderstorm activity will push east of the District leaving dry
conditions for the overnight period.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak
thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2” of rain. Moderate
thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of
0.2-0.5” in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Should a strong thunderstorm be able to develop
it will have the potential to produce brief heavy rain of 0.3-0.8”
in 10-30 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: A similar setup for tomorrow with temperatures in the
70’s over the plains with widely scattered afternoon and early
evening thunderstorms. Typical storms will produce light to moderate
rain but a stronger storm may still produce brief heavy rain. A storm
system will move into the area on Thursday into Friday with cooler
temperatures, more cloud cover and scattered to widespread rain
showers as well as a threat for thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thunderstorms will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall but
will be fighting colder temperatures and the strength of the storms
may very well end up on the weaker side.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Arapahoe
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Broomfield
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (15%)
LOW
Denver
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (15%)
LOW
Boulder
100 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (15%)
LOW
Douglas
100 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Jefferson
100 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (15%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
100 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Douglas
100 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Jefferson
100 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 7 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 959 AM Mon May 15, 2023
Forecaster: Laura Smith
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
SCATTERED AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
Ridge building across the Desert Southwest will support a warming
trend and scattered rain showers and thunderstorms over the coming
days. Today will be mostly cloudy with highs in the mid to upper 60s,
dew points in the mid to upper 40s, with rain showers gradually moving
across the area throughout the day.
Light to briefly moderate rain showers are expected late this morning
through the early evening hours. Storm motions will generally be from
the west-northwest with the best time for showers between 4PM and 8PM.
Despite somewhat favorable dewpoints along with PWAT values around
0.70in, westerly upper-level flow will stifle developing storms as
they descend higher terrain onto the plains. Skies will clear
overnight.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated
thunderstorms will produce a TR-0.10” in 10-30 minutes. A moderate
rain shower/isolated thunderstorm could produce 0.10”-0.25” in
10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: An anchored rain shower/isolated thunderstorm, or
training of rain showers, has the potential to produce 0.25”-0.75”
in 45-60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: The springtime thunderstorm pattern remains in place
with warmer temperatures and afternoon thunderstorms persisting.
Tuesday and Wednesday will be similar, with mostly sunny morning skies
followed by a round of afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms.
High temperatures will reach the mid 70s to low 80s. Looking ahead, A
cold front will sweep across the Front Range Urban Corridor early
Thursday, followed by overcast skies, stratified rain showers, and
highs reaching the upper 60s to low 70s.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
400 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.25" (10%)
NONE
Arapahoe
400 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.25" (10%)
NONE
Boulder
400 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.25" (10%)
NONE
Broomfield
400 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.25" (10%)
NONE
Denver
400 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.25" (10%)
NONE
Douglas
400 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.25" (10%)
NONE
Jefferson
400 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.25" (10%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
300 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.25" (20%)
LOW
Douglas
300 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.25" (20%)
LOW
Jefferson
300 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.25" (20%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 7 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 913 AM Sun May 14, 2023
Forecaster: Laura Smith
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT
A cold frontal passage that moved through the area overnight will be
responsible for overcast skies with scattered to widespread rain
showers today and tomorrow. Light to briefly moderate stratified rain
showers are expected late this morning and through the afternoon
hours. Afternoon temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s, dew
points upper 40s to around 50. Rain showers will persist through the
overnight hours and into tomorrow.
Storm motions will be from the northeast moving southwest with the
best time for showers between 200PM and 1000PM. Cooler temperatures
will likely suppress stronger storm development today and this
afternoon. Due to excess moisture both at the surface and aloft, any
rain showers produced could become efficient rain producers,
especially along the foothill areas where storms could anchor due to
persistent NE surface flow.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated
thunderstorms will produce a TR-0.25” in 10-30 minutes. A moderate
rain shower/isolated thunderstorm could produce 0.25”-0.75” in
10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: An anchored rain shower/isolated thunderstorm, or
training of rain showers, has the potential to produce 0.75”-1.50”
in 45-60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Monday will be mostly cloudy with highs in the mid to
upper 60s as light rain showers gradually move across the area
throughout the day. Chances for thunderstorms tomorrow will be
greatest during the late afternoon to early evening hours. The
springtime thunderstorm pattern remains in place with warmer
temperatures and afternoon thunderstorms expected into late next week.
Tuesday and Wednesday will be similar, with mostly sunny morning skies
followed by a round of afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms.
High temperatures will reach the mid 70s to low 80s.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (10%)
LOW
Arapahoe
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (10%)
LOW
Boulder
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (10%)
LOW
Broomfield
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (10%)
LOW
Denver
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (10%)
LOW
Douglas
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (10%)
LOW
Jefferson
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (10%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
300 PM TO 1100 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (20%)
MOD
Douglas
300 PM TO 1100 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (20%)
MOD
Jefferson
300 PM TO 1100 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.25" (50%) to 0.75" (20%)
MOD
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 7 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 942 AM Sat May 13, 2023
Forecaster: Laura Smith
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
CONDITIONS RETURN TO NORMAL TODAY; SCATTERED AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS &
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
A more typical springtime weather pattern emerges today with partly
cloudy morning skies followed by afternoon to evening showers and
thunderstorms. High temperatures will reach the low to mid 60s with
dew points in the low to mid 40s. A chance showers and thunderstorms
will start to move into the area around 3pm. Light to briefly moderate
isolated to scattered rain showers are expected into the late evening
hours, tapering off at or around 10pm.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated
thunderstorms will produce a TR-0.10” in 10-30 minutes. A moderate
rain showers/isolated thunderstorm could produce 0.10”-0.25” in
10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: An anchored rain shower/isolated thunderstorm, or
training of rain showers, has the potential to produce 0.25”-0.50”
in 45-60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Better chances for rainfall in the coming days. Tomorrow
morning, a cold front is expected to wash over the Front Range Urban
Corridor. Afternoon temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s, dew
points in the mid to upper 40s, with scattered to widespread showers
and thunderstorms. The springtime thunderstorm pattern remains in
place with warmer temperatures and afternoon thunderstorms expected
into late next week.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
300 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.25" (10%)
NONE
Arapahoe
300 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.25" (10%)
NONE
Boulder
300 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.25" (10%)
NONE
Broomfield
300 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.25" (10%)
NONE
Denver
300 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.25" (10%)
NONE
Douglas
300 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.25" (10%)
NONE
Jefferson
300 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.25" (10%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
300 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.25" (20%)
NONE
Douglas
300 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.25" (20%)
NONE
Jefferson
300 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.25" (20%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 7 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 1232 PM Fri May 12, 2023
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 2'S HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE/CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH/NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY/TONIGHT
Message 2’s (NWS Flood Watch/Flash Flood Watch) has been allowed
to expire at noon as rain showers have tapered off through the
morning. Generally dry conditions are expected through the afternoon
and evening, but a leftover weak rain shower or sprinkle cannot be
completely ruled out. No meaningful additional rainfall is expected.
Rainfall totals over the past 3-days in the District range from
2.5-6.0” with isolated higher amounts. Due to all the moisture
recently creeks and streams will continue to run high or even at or
above flood stage for isolated drainages through the day but will
slowly start to recede and conditions will begin to improve. Use
caution in and around waterways within the District due to the high
water levels being slow to recede.
With a saturated ground in place any additional rain showers over the
weekend will easily produce runoff and it will not take as much rain
as usual to result in excessive runoff and flooding over the coming
days.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No meaningful additional rain
showers are expected for the remainder of the afternoon and evening
with dry conditions expected overnight.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 7 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 728 AM Fri May 12, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
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Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
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UPDATE FOR FLOOD WARNING BIG DRY CREEK & FLOWS INTO CHERRY CREEK
RESEVOIR
Message 2's issued will continue valid through noon today.
The National Weather Service has updated the Big Dry Creek area to a
Flood Warning due to excessive runoff leading to localized flooding.
The area of impact will be from Thornton, Westminster and downstream
to the confluence with the South Platte River near Fort Lupton. This
Flood Warning will be in effect through 3pm this afternoon.
The National Weather Service has also upgraded the flows into Cherry
Creek Reservoir to a Flood Warning as elevated water flows currently
moving from the Douglas County area through Arapahoe County and into
Cherry Creek. These elevated flows will likely have localized
flooding, especially along any paths adjacent to creeks/rivers. This
Flood Warning is also in effect through 3pm this afternoon.
The MHFD will advise through an IMS any additional Flood Warnings for
this event if necessary.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Light rain showers will produce
rainfall rates of 0.1-0.3" in 60 minutes. Moderate to heavy
non-thunderstorm rain showers will produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.6"
in 60 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of moderate rain rain showers or a weak
to moderate thunderstorm has the potential to produce rainfall amounts
of 0.5-1.5" in 30-60 minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Lakewood
2
Current TO 1159 AM
Current TO 1000 AM
Wheat Ridge
2
Current TO 1159 AM
Current TO 1000 AM
Arvada
2
Current TO 1159 AM
Current TO 1000 AM
the City of Aurora
2
Current TO 1159 AM
Current TO 1000 AM
Arapahoe County
2
Current TO 1159 AM
Current TO 1000 AM
DIA
2
Current TO 1159 AM
Current TO 1000 AM
Denver County
2
Current TO 1159 AM
Current TO 1000 AM
Adams County
2
Current TO 1159 AM
Current TO 1000 AM
Douglas County
2
Current TO 1159 AM
Current TO 1000 AM
Broomfield County
2
Current TO 1159 AM
Current TO 1000 AM
Jefferson County
2
Current TO 1159 AM
Current TO 1000 AM
Boulder County
2
Current TO 1159 AM
Current TO 1000 AM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
60-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 1159 AM FRI
0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (45%) to 0.8" (20%)
ISSUED
Arapahoe
Current TO 1159 AM FRI
0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (45%) to 0.8" (20%)
ISSUED
Boulder
Current TO 1159 AM FRI
0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (45%) to 0.8" (20%)
ISSUED
Broomfield
Current TO 1159 AM FRI
0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (45%) to 0.8" (20%)
ISSUED
Denver
Current TO 1159 AM FRI
0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (45%) to 0.8" (20%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 1159 AM FRI
0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (45%) to 0.8" (20%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 1159 AM FRI
0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (45%) to 0.8" (20%)
ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 1159 AM FRI
0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (10%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 1159 AM FRI
0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (10%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 1159 AM FRI
0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (10%)
ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 7 months