May 2023 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 636 AM Fri May 12, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 2'S WILL CONTINUE VALID THROUGH NOON TODAY Message 2's, coinciding with the NWS Flood Watch, will remain in effect until noon today. A Flood Advisory is in effect from NOW through 9am for SE Denver, western Arapahoe County, including Aurora, and all central and eastern Douglas County. Moderate to heavy rainfall overnight has decreased to widespread light to briefly moderate rainfall this morning. However, even non-thunderstorm rain showers this morning, on top of saturated ground is resulting in continued isolated excessive runoff that is producing low end nuisance to moderate flood conditions across the District. Rain showers will continue to be persistent this morning and into the afternoon with typical rainfall rates of 0.1-0.3” in 60 minutes and upwards of 0.3-0.8” in 60 minutes if moderate showers continue over and area for an extended time. Although the intensity of the rain is not heavy compared to yesterday, the overall amount of continuous rain is producing flooding of local creeks and streams, and this will likely remain through the day today. By noon today, showers should start to taper off with any additional rain showers gradually clearing out during the afternoon. Even though rain showers stop producing today, rivers, creeks and overflow waterways will still remain elevated into the evening hours and possibly through the overnight and into Saturday. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Light rain showers will produce rainfall rates of 0.1-0.3" in 60 minutes. Moderate to heavy non-thunderstorm rain showers will produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.6" in 60 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of moderate rain rain showers or a weak to moderate thunderstorm has the potential to produce rainfall amounts of 0.5-1.5" in 30-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 2 Current TO 1159 AM Current TO 1000 AM Jefferson County 2 Current TO 1159 AM Current TO 1000 AM Broomfield County 2 Current TO 1159 AM Current TO 1000 AM Douglas County 2 Current TO 1159 AM Current TO 1000 AM Adams County 2 Current TO 1159 AM Current TO 1000 AM Denver County 2 Current TO 1159 AM Current TO 1000 AM DIA 2 Current TO 1159 AM Current TO 1000 AM Arapahoe County 2 Current TO 1159 AM Current TO 1000 AM the City of Aurora 2 Current TO 1159 AM Current TO 1000 AM Arvada 2 Current TO 1159 AM Current TO 1000 AM Wheat Ridge 2 Current TO 1159 AM Current TO 1000 AM Lakewood 2 Current TO 1159 AM Current TO 1000 AM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 60-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1159 AM FRI 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (45%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1159 AM FRI 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (45%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1159 AM FRI 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (45%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1159 AM FRI 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (45%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1159 AM FRI 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (45%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 AM FRI 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (45%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 AM FRI 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (45%) to 0.8" (20%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1159 AM FRI 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 AM FRI 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 AM FRI 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 7 months

1
0
0 / 0

Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1049 PM Thu May 11, 2023 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 2'S WILL BE EXTENDED UNTIL NOON FRIDAY/RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND LOCALIZED FLOODING Message 2’s (NWS Flood Watch/Flash Flood Watch) will be extended until noon Friday. 2.0-5.0” of rain has fallen across the District over the past 1-2 days (isolated higher and lower amounts) and another 1.0-3.0” of rain or more is expected this evening and overnight. Non-thunderstorm rain showers on top of saturated ground is resulting in even light to moderate rainfall resulting in excessive runoff that is producing low end nuisance to moderate flood conditions across the District. Rain showers will continue to be persistent overnight with typical rainfall rates of 0.1-0.3” in 60 minutes and upwards of 0.3-0.9” in 60 minutes with isolated higher amounts. Although the intensity of the rain is not heavy compared to thunderstorms the overall amount of rain is producing flooding of local creeks and streams. Additional rainfall will easily runoff and may exacerbate flooding of watercourses further and result in more severe flooding as this unusual rain event continues. Any infrastructure failures may exacerbate flood conditions further and flash flooding may occur unexpectedly. As the low pressure system spinning over E/SE Colorado slowly moves eastward tomorrow rain showers are expected to decrease into the afternoon and conditions will improve but we are 10-16 hours away from significant improvement and conditions may deteriorate further before they improve tomorrow. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Light rain showers will produce rainfall rates of 0.1-0.3" in 60 minutes. Moderate to heavy non-thunderstorm rain showers will produce rainfall rates of 0.3-0.9" in 60 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Very heavy rain showers or a weak to moderate thunderstorm has the potential to produce rainfall amounts of 0.5-1.5" in 30-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 2 Current TO 1159 AM FRIDAY Current TO 1000 AM FRIDAY Jefferson County 2 Current TO 1159 AM FRIDAY Current TO 1000 AM FRIDAY Broomfield County 2 Current TO 1159 AM FRIDAY Current TO 1000 AM FRIDAY Douglas County 2 Current TO 1159 AM FRIDAY Current TO 1000 AM FRIDAY Adams County 2 Current TO 1159 AM FRIDAY Current TO 1000 AM FRIDAY Denver County 2 Current TO 1159 AM FRIDAY Current TO 1000 AM FRIDAY DIA 2 Current TO 1159 AM FRIDAY Current TO 1000 AM FRIDAY Arapahoe County 2 Current TO 1159 AM FRIDAY Current TO 1000 AM FRIDAY the City of Aurora 2 Current TO 1159 AM FRIDAY Current TO 1000 AM FRIDAY Arvada 2 Current TO 1159 AM FRIDAY Current TO 1000 AM FRIDAY Wheat Ridge 2 Current TO 1159 AM FRIDAY Current TO 1000 AM FRIDAY Lakewood 2 Current TO 1159 AM FRIDAY Current TO 1000 AM FRIDAY County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 60-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1159 AM FRI 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.9" (25%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1159 AM FRI 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.9" (25%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1159 AM FRI 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (70%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1159 AM FRI 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (70%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1159 AM FRI 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.9" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 AM FRI 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.9" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 AM FRI 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (70%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1159 AM FRI 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (70%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 AM FRI 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.9" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 AM FRI 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (70%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 7 months

1
0
0 / 0

Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 523 PM Thu May 11, 2023 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 2'S (NWS Flood/Flash Flood Watch) REMAINS VALID/RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT Message 2’s (NWS Flood/Flash Flood Watch) will remain valid until 6:00 AM Friday as rain showers will continue to fall over the District. Rainfall totals from roughly sunrise this morning until now range from 0.5-1.5” over NW portions of the District with 1.0-2.5” or more for central/eastern and southern areas and has resulted in creeks and streams running high resulting in minor flooding for many areas with isolated areas of moderate impact. Rainfall rates appear to have peaked, and intensities have been backing off over the past couple hours and creeks and streams should begin to subside slightly but remain elevated as the ground is saturated and additional rainfall will easily result in runoff. Rainfall intensities peaked earlier today in the 0.5-1.0” in 60 minute range and are now in the 0.1-0.3” in 60 minute range and this type of intensity is expected to continue for the duration of the event with isolated higher rates of 0.2-0.6” in 60 minutes under the heavier showers. With temperatures in the mid 40’s to lower 50’s the threat for thunderstorms is very low but not zero. Should a weak thunderstorm develop higher rainfall rates are possible and could exacerbate runoff already occurring and result in flash flooding. There could be a few lulls in the precipitation this evening only to fill in again overnight with some snow possible for higher elevations at or above the 8,000ft level. Rain showers are expected to continue into tomorrow morning before starting to break up later in the morning or during the afternoon as the slow moving low pressure system over SE Colorado continues to churn and stream moisture into the area. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Light rain showers will produce rainfall rates of 0.1-0.3" in 60 minutes. Moderate to heavy non-thunderstorm rain showers will produce rainfall rates of 0.3-0.8" in 60 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A weak to briefly moderate thunderstorm is able to develop in a cold air mass with the potential to produce heavy rainfall of 0.4-1.2" in 10-30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Lakewood 2 Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY Wheat Ridge 2 Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY Arvada 2 Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY the City of Aurora 2 Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY Arapahoe County 2 Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY DIA 2 Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY Denver County 2 Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY Adams County 2 Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY Douglas County 2 Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY Broomfield County 2 Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY Jefferson County 2 Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY Boulder County 2 Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 60-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 600 AM FRI 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 600 AM FRI 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 600 AM FRI 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 600 AM FRI 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 600 AM FRI 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 600 AM FRI 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 600 AM FRI 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 600 AM FRI 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 600 AM FRI 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 600 AM FRI 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 7 months

1
0
0 / 0

Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 635 AM Thu May 11, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 2'S HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT Message 2's have been issued for the entire District effective from 6am this morning valid until 6am Thursday, May 12, 2023. An active day expected weather wise as widespread moderate to heavy rain showers impact the District today, this evening, and through the overnight tonight. Currently temperatures are relatively cool, resulting in just typical rain showers currently. As the day progresses, and there’s a bit more daytime heating, there will be a better chance for impactful rain showers across the District this afternoon, evening and overnight. This has resulted in the issuance of a Flood Watch for the entirety of the District effective now, through 6am Thursday, May, 12th. Elevated moisture both at the surface and aloft today will result in efficient rain producing showers and thunderstorms. The storm motions currently SE to NW and will shift through the day becoming N to S later today and into this evening. Storm motions will be generally between 5-15mph, however training of heavy rain showers bringing over 1" per hour rainfall rates, or an anchored/slow moving shower/thunderstorm will bring the biggest threat for heavy rainfall today, this evening and through the overnight. Off and on rain showers are likely to continue into Friday, although the threat of heavy rainfall is minimal at this time. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will produce 0.2-0.5" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.5-1.5" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong/slower moving or stationary thunderstorm, or training of rain showers/thunderstorms may result in heavy rainfall rates of up to 3.0" in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Lakewood 2 Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY Arvada 2 Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY Wheat Ridge 2 Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY Broomfield County 2 Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY Douglas County 2 Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY Adams County 2 Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY Denver County 2 Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY DIA 2 Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY Arapahoe County 2 Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY the City of Aurora 2 Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY Jefferson County 2 Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY Boulder County 2 Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY Current TO 600 AM FRIDAY County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 600 AM FRI 0.2" (100%) to 0.5" (75%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 600 AM FRI 0.2" (100%) to 0.5" (75%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 600 AM FRI 0.2" (100%) to 0.5" (75%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 600 AM FRI 0.2" (100%) to 0.5" (75%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 600 AM FRI 0.2" (100%) to 0.5" (75%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 600 AM FRI 0.2" (100%) to 0.5" (75%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 600 AM FRI 0.2" (100%) to 0.5" (75%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 600 AM FRI 0.2" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (15%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 600 AM FRI 0.2" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 600 AM FRI 0.2" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (15%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 7 months

1
0
0 / 0

Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 146 AM Thu May 11, 2023 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 2:00 AM/NON-THUNDERSTORM RAIN TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 2:00 AM as the threat for heavy rainfall from potential thunderstorms has diminished. Scattered to widespread light to moderate rain showers will continue likely overnight and produce minor runoff but flash flooding from heavy rainfall is not expected. Creeks and streams will be running high area wide due to rain this evening and overnight with additional rain showers into tomorrow morning. Rainfall amounts through 1:30 AM in the District typically ranged from 0.75-1.50” with isolated higher amounts under thunderstorms and another 0.25-0.75” of rain is possible through mid-morning Thursday with additional rain through the afternoon and evening. Rain showers will continue to impact the District on Thursday as a low pressure system churns to the S/SE of Colorado with thunderstorms possible once again from late morning into the early evening capable of producing heavy rain. The strength/severity of the storms is expected to be weaker than Wednesday. Due to all the rain recently, the ground is becoming saturated and it may not take as much rain during the day Thursday to produce excessive runoff and Message 1’s are expected to be issued once again. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Non-thunderstorm rain showers will produce will produce rainfall rates of 0.1-0.4" in 30-60 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Weak to moderate thunderstorms are able to develop with the potential for heavy rainfall of 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 200 AM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 200 AM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 200 AM Douglas County 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 200 AM Adams County 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 200 AM Denver County 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 200 AM DIA 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 200 AM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 200 AM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 200 AM Arvada 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 200 AM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 200 AM Lakewood 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 200 AM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 60-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1000 AM THU Trace (100%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (25%) LOW Arapahoe Current TO 1000 AM THU Trace (100%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (25%) LOW Boulder Current TO 1000 AM THU Trace (100%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (25%) LOW Broomfield Current TO 1000 AM THU Trace (100%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (25%) LOW Denver Current TO 1000 AM THU Trace (100%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (25%) LOW Douglas Current TO 1000 AM THU Trace (100%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (25%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 1000 AM THU Trace (100%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (25%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1000 AM THU Trace (100%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (25%) LOW Douglas Current TO 1000 AM THU Trace (100%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (25%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 1000 AM THU Trace (100%) to 0.2" (75%) to 0.4" (25%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 7 months

1
0
0 / 0

Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1149 PM Wed May 10, 2023 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S EXTENDED UNTIL 2:00 AM THURSDAY Message 1’s have been extended until 2:00 AM Thursday. A widespread light to moderate non-thunderstorm rain continues to fall over the District and a weak to moderate thunderstorm cannot be ruled out for a couple more hours which may produce brief heavy rainfall on a ground that is becoming saturated and may result in excessive runoff keeping the Message 1’s in place. Most of the rain showers are resulting in rainfall rates of 0.1-0.4” in 30-60 minutes and is producing runoff but it is not excessive at this time and more of the nuisance variety. Should a thunderstorm develop, heavier rainfall is possible and could result in flooding. The back edge of the persistent showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm should pass by around 2:00 AM and Messages will likely be allowed to expire but could be extended further into the overnight period. Strong thunderstorms are not expected due to cooler temperatures in the mid 40’s to around 50 currently. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Non-thunderstorm rain showers will produce will produce rainfall rates of 0.1-0.4" in 30-60 minutes. Weak to moderate thunderstorms produce moderate to brief heavy rainfall of 0.3-0.9" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm is able to develop with the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.4-1.2" in 10-30 minutes and up to 2.0" in 45-75 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 200 AM THURSDAY Current TO 130 AM THURSDAY Jefferson County 1 Current TO 200 AM THURSDAY Current TO 130 AM THURSDAY Broomfield County 1 Current TO 200 AM THURSDAY Current TO 130 AM THURSDAY Douglas County 1 Current TO 200 AM THURSDAY Current TO 130 AM THURSDAY Adams County 1 Current TO 200 AM THURSDAY Current TO 130 AM THURSDAY Denver County 1 Current TO 200 AM THURSDAY Current TO 130 AM THURSDAY DIA 1 Current TO 200 AM THURSDAY Current TO 130 AM THURSDAY Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 200 AM THURSDAY Current TO 130 AM THURSDAY the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 200 AM THURSDAY Current TO 130 AM THURSDAY Arvada 1 Current TO 200 AM THURSDAY Current TO 130 AM THURSDAY Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 200 AM THURSDAY Current TO 130 AM THURSDAY Lakewood 1 Current TO 200 AM THURSDAY Current TO 130 AM THURSDAY County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 200 AM THU 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 200 AM THU 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 200 AM THU 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 200 AM THU 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 200 AM THU 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 200 AM THU 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 200 AM THU 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 200 AM THU 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 200 AM THU 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 200 AM THU 0.1" (100%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 7 months

1
0
0 / 0

Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 613 PM Wed May 10, 2023 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S COTNINUE VALID FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT UNTIL MIDNIGHT/MAY BE EXTENDED IF CONDITIONS WARRANT Strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail and moderate to heavy rainfall with multiple tornado warned storms by the NWS moved through the District this afternoon. The strong to severe thunderstorms have moved to the NE out of the District as of 6:00pm leaving a cool air mass in their wake with temperatures in the 50’s plains and 40’s foothills. The threat for strong thunderstorms with hail and heavy rainfall is diminishing now the atmosphere has been churned and temperatures are cooling leaving scattered to widespread rain showers and weak to moderate thunderstorms to continue into the evening and overnight period. With a moist atmosphere in place even weak to moderate thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall this evening keeping the Message 1’s valid. There is a chance that Message 1’s may need to be extended as we approach midnight into Thursday morning depending upon how conditions play out over the next 4-6 hours. Now that the ground is becoming saturated in some locations that experienced heavy rain and hail earlier today it may not take as much rain to produce excessive runoff this evening and overnight. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers will produce a trace to 0.2" in 10-30 minutes. Weak thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.2-0.4" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to briefly strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.4-1.0" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving or nearly stationary thunderstorm or training of thunderstorm cells has the potential to produce up to 2.0" 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Denver County 1 100 PM TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Douglas County 1 100 PM TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Adams County 1 100 PM TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Broomfield County 1 100 PM TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Jefferson County 1 100 PM TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Boulder County 1 100 PM TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM DIA 1 100 PM TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Arapahoe County 1 100 PM TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM the City of Aurora 1 100 PM TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Arvada 1 100 PM TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Wheat Ridge 1 100 PM TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Lakewood 1 100 PM TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1159 PM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1" (15%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1" (15%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1159 PM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1" (15%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1" (15%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1159 PM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1" (15%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1" (15%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1159 PM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1" (15%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1" (15%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 7 months

1
0
0 / 0

Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 110 PM Wed May 10, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT Message 1's have been issued for the entire District and will be valid until 11:59 PM, with a chance Messages will have to be extended through the overnight if the heavy rainfall threat persists after midnight tonight. Temperatures have been suppressed this morning, which could help limit the potential for severe thunderstorm activity this afternoon and evening. However, good upper-level dynamics heading into the afternoon and evening will likely result in widespread rain showers and thunderstorms with a good chance for isolated heavy rainfall, leading to some localized flash flooding. Storm motions today will be generally fast from south to north, between 10-15mph which should help limit point rainfall amounts. Additional storms formed along outflow boundaries will have the largest potential to produce longer lasting heavy rainfall. The best chance for heavy rainfall producing storms will be from 1pm this afternoon through midnight tonight. Off and on rain shower chances will likely continue overnight and into daybreak Thursday. The threat for heavy rainfall should diminish after midnight, however, with significant moisture in place both at the surface and upper levels, there will be a chance for rain showers that could produce rainfall rates exceeding 1" per hour through the overnight and into Thursday. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.5" in 10-30 minutes. A Moderate to strong thunderstorm will produce 0.5-1.0" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow moving/stationary thunderstorm formed off an outflow boundary, or training of thunderstorm cells has the potential to produce up to 2.0" in under 60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 100 PM TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1100 PM Jefferson County 1 100 PM TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1100 PM Broomfield County 1 100 PM TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1100 PM Douglas County 1 100 PM TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1100 PM Adams County 1 100 PM TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1100 PM Denver County 1 100 PM TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1100 PM DIA 1 100 PM TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1100 PM Arapahoe County 1 100 PM TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1100 PM the City of Aurora 1 100 PM TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1100 PM Arvada 1 100 PM TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1100 PM Wheat Ridge 1 100 PM TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1100 PM Lakewood 1 100 PM TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1100 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1" (30%) ISSUED Arapahoe 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1" (30%) ISSUED Boulder 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1" (30%) ISSUED Broomfield 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1" (30%) ISSUED Denver 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1" (30%) ISSUED Douglas 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1" (30%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1" (20%) ISSUED Douglas 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1" (20%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 7 months

1
0
0 / 0

Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 935 AM Wed May 10, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING An active day weather wise with rain showers/thunderstorms likely this afternoon, evening and through the overnight. A good chance some of these storms become severe today, bringing large hail, up to 1.5”, gusty winds, 60+ mph along with heavy rainfall resulting in localized flash flooding. The best chance for strong storms will be from 1pm to midnight tonight, with rain showers/isolated thunderstorms possible through the overnight and into Thursday. Multiple rounds of strong storms will be possible this afternoon and into this evening, with storm intensities decreasing after midnight. Storm motions today will be from south to north between 10-20mph which could limit point rainfall amounts, however, additional storms formed off outflow boundaries will likely have much slower and erratic movement leading to isolated heavy rainfall. Storms will also likely contain hail, which could also help limit rainfall amounts under stronger storms today. With good upper-level support in place across the I-25 corridor, equal chances throughout the District will be possible for heavy rainfall today. The strongest upper-level support will start to move eastward after midnight tonight, bringing more widespread showers through the overnight and into daybreak Thursday. Off and on shower activity will be possible through the morning Thursday, however the threat for heavy rainfall should be minimal as cooler temperatures suppress strong storm development. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.5" in 10-30 minutes. A Moderate to strong thunderstorm will produce 0.5-1.0" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow moving/stationary thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells has the potential to produce up to 2.0" in under 60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: This active pattern remains in place through the weekend, however, today should be the most likely for a heavy rain threat. Cooler daytime temperatures tomorrow will most likely suppress strong storm development, although the threat will at least be low for a few rain showers to produce localized heavy rainfall as surface moisture remains elevated. Similar conditions in place Friday, with slightly warmer daytime temperatures will result in a slightly better chance for impactful afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. Similar conditions remain in place both Saturday and Sunday with a chance for isolated afternoon and evening rain showers/thunderstorms. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1" (30%) HIGH Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1" (30%) HIGH Boulder 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1" (30%) HIGH Broomfield 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1" (30%) HIGH Denver 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1" (30%) HIGH Douglas 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1" (30%) HIGH Jefferson 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1" (30%) HIGH Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1" (30%) HIGH Douglas 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1" (30%) HIGH Jefferson 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1" (30%) HIGH MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 7 months

1
0
0 / 0

Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 143 AM Wed May 10, 2023 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 2:00 AM/ACTIVE WEATHER DAY AHEAD A second round of strong to severe thunderstorms developed late in the evening impacting NW portions of the District into the overnight period. These storms produced moderate to heavy rain, large hail and numerous lightning strikes. These storms are now located over Weld County to the N of the District and will leave a more stable air mass in their wake allowing Message 1’s to expire at 2:00 AM. Low level moisture continues to advect into the District from the east and may result in rain showers and possibly a weak thunderstorms re-developing into Wednesday morning but the threat for heavy rainfall has passed for the time being. The low level moisture continuing to stream into eastern Colorado and an upper level disturbance moving overhead will set the stage for an active weather day Wednesday. Storms that develop on Wednesday will be capable of producing heavy rainfall and may become severe with gusty winds, large hail and possibly even tornadoes during the afternoon and evening. Another Message Day looks to be on tap to account for the heavy rainfall threat. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak to briefly moderate thunderstorms will produce TR-0.3" of rain in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Moderate to strong thunderstorms are able to re-develop and will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 200 AM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 200 AM DIA 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 200 AM Denver County 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 200 AM Douglas County 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 200 AM Adams County 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 200 AM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 200 AM Arvada 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 200 AM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 200 AM Boulder County 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 200 AM Lakewood 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 200 AM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 200 AM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1000 AM WED Trace (75%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 1000 AM WED Trace (75%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Boulder Current TO 1000 AM WED Trace (75%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 1000 AM WED Trace (75%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Denver Current TO 1000 AM WED Trace (75%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1000 AM WED Trace (75%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1000 AM WED Trace (75%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1000 AM WED Trace (75%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1000 AM WED Trace (75%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1000 AM WED Trace (75%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 7 months

1
0
0 / 0

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

hpo-ims May 2023