Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 723 PM Mon July 24, 2023
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR DOUGLAS COUNTY
Message 1 has been issued for Douglas County and is valid until 9:00
PM.
A slower moving strong thunderstorm has developed over Douglas County
and may produce brief heavy rainfall as it tracks over northern areas
of the County. This storm is moving to the E at around 10-15mph and
may result in excessive runoff roadways. This storm will also contain
gusty winds in excess of 50mph and possibly hail. This storm should
exit the County ahead of 8:30 PM.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Moderate to strong
thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.3-0.8" in 10-30
minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Douglas County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 900 PM MON
0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.8" (10%)
LOW
Arapahoe
Current TO 900 PM MON
0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.8" (10%)
LOW
Boulder
Current TO 900 PM MON
0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (10%) to 0.8" (5%)
NONE
Broomfield
Current TO 900 PM MON
0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (10%) to 0.8" (5%)
NONE
Denver
Current TO 900 PM MON
0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (10%) to 0.8" (5%)
NONE
Douglas
Current TO 900 PM MON
0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (30%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 900 PM MON
0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (10%) to 0.8" (5%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 900 PM MON
0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (10%) to 0.8" (5%)
NONE
Douglas
Current TO 900 PM MON
0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (20%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 900 PM MON
0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (10%) to 0.8" (5%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 5 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 839 AM Mon July 24, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVE HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
Once again, very little change to the overall upper-level pattern as
northwesterly flow aloft continues to dominate over the region. Dew
points have decreased this morning and will likely mix out through the
rest of the day, dropping into the low to mid 40’s, with possibly a
few upper 30’s for areas west of I-25 this afternoon. These lower
dewpoints suggest that any storm development will remain high-based
bringing minimal, if any, rainfall for most areas.
The best chance for storm development withing the District will be
between 4-10pm. Storm motions will once again be NW to SE between
15-25mph, effectively limiting any point rainfall amounts. A few
storms could produce some lightning with a very slight chance for a
few pockets of light to moderate rainfall, however any shower activity
today should remain brief.
Skies will clear late this evening with overnight lows well in the
60’s on the plains with upper 50’s to around 60 degrees along the
foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce a
TR-0.10” total, in 10-30 minutes. A weak to moderate
showers/isolated thunderstorm will produce 0.1-0.3” total in 10-30
minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger thunderstorm is able to develop and
will have the potential to produce up to 0.6” total, in 45-60
minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Not much change Tuesday with another chance for
afternoon/evening high-based showers/isolated thunderstorms, with most
precipitation struggling to reach the surface as high temps continue
in the mid to upper 90’s. Similar conditions to start the day
Wednesday, a slight uptick in overall moistures suggests a slightly
better chance for storms in the afternoon and evening.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
400 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%)
NONE
Arapahoe
400 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%)
NONE
Boulder
400 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%)
NONE
Broomfield
400 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%)
NONE
Denver
400 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%)
NONE
Douglas
400 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%)
NONE
Jefferson
400 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
400 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (35%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Douglas
400 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (35%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Jefferson
400 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (35%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 5 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 843 AM Sun July 23, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
HOT TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATER AFTERNOON/EVE HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
Very little overall change to the upper-level pattern as north to
northwesterly flow aloft continues to dominate over the region this
weekend. Dew points have decreased this morning and will likely mix
out through the rest of the day, dropping into the low to mid 40’s,
with possibly a few upper 30’s for areas west of I-25. These lower
dewpoints suggest that any storm development late this afternoon and
into the evening will remain high-based bringing minimal rainfall for
most areas.
The best chance for storm development withing the District will be
between 4-9pm. Storm motions will once again be NW to SE between
15-25mph, effectively limiting any point rainfall amounts. A few
storms could produce some lightning with a slight chance for a few
pockets of moderate rainfall, however any shower activity today should
remain brief.
Skies will clear after sunset today with overnight lows well in the
60’s on the plains with upper 50’s to around 60 degrees along the
foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce a
TR-0.10” total, in 10-30 minutes. A weak to moderate
showers/isolated thunderstorm will produce 0.1-0.3” total in 10-30
minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger thunderstorm is able to develop and
will have the potential to produce up to 0.6” total, in 45-60
minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Similar conditions are in place for tomorrow with winds
picking up at the surface during the day leading to breezy conditions.
A very slight chance for another round of high-based showers/isolated
thunderstorms tomorrow, with minimal, if any heavy rainfall threat as
high temperatures remain nearly 100 degrees. Not much change Tuesday
with another chance for afternoon/evening high-based showers/isolated
thunderstorms, with most precipitation struggling to reach the surface
as high temps continue in the mid to upper 90’s.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
400 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%)
NONE
Arapahoe
400 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%)
NONE
Boulder
400 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%)
NONE
Broomfield
400 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%)
NONE
Denver
400 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%)
NONE
Douglas
400 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%)
NONE
Jefferson
400 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
400 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Douglas
400 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Jefferson
400 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 5 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 903 AM Sat July 22, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
WARMER TODAY WITH A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE EVENING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
Very little change to the overall pattern today as strong
northwesterly flow aloft hangs around northeastern Colorado today and
into the evening. With these strong upper-level winds relatively
close, there will be a very slight chance for storms to develop in and
around the District today. Especially if storms to the east produce
outflow boundaries that move into the District, similar to yesterday.
Currently skies are clear with temperatures around 70 degrees, with
highs expected to reach the upper 80’s to low 90’s this afternoon.
Elevated dew points remain a concern with mid to upper 50’s
currently east of I-25. If these dew points stick around throughout
the day, with full sunshine through the afternoon, another risk of
storms will be likely late this afternoon and into the evening.
The best chance for storm development will be along the higher terrain
foothills between 3-5pm and moving SE through the District between
5-10pm with skies clearing quickly behind and storm developmet. Once
again storm movement will be fairly brisk, between 20-30mph which will
help limit any point rainfall amounts if storms do develop within the
District boundaries. The largest threat for any heavy rainfall will be
a quick 0.5” in 10-15 minutes, resulting in a LOW chance for Message
1’s to be issued.
Overnight will be mild and dry with lows dropping into the low 60’s
on the plains with mid to upper 50’s for the foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and
thunderstorms will produce a TR-0.20” total, in 10-30 minutes. A
moderate to strong thunderstorm will produce 0.20-0.50” total, in
10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm anchors off an outflow
boundary, or training of thunderstorms could potentially produce up to
1.0” total in 45-60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Drier air moves into the region tomorrow resulting in
dry conditions throughout the day for the District. A few weak
showers, maybe an isolated thunderstorm will be possible along the
Palmer Divide. Similar conditions to start the day Monday with a
slightly better chance of high-based showers thunderstorms with
minimal if any precipitation as most struggles to reach the surface as
temperatures reach nearly 100 degrees.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
400 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Arapahoe
400 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Boulder
400 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Broomfield
400 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Denver
400 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Douglas
400 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Jefferson
400 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
400 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Douglas
400 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Jefferson
400 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 5 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 1026 PM Fri July 21, 2023
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10:30 PM
Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 10:30 PM as the threat of
heavy rainfall has ended.
The fast moving round of moderate to heavy rainfall producing
thunderstorms has moved S and E of the District and dry conditions are
expected for the remainder of the evening and overnight period.
Overnight lows will bottom out in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s
over the plains.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No additional rainfall is
expected for the remainder of the evening and overnight period.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 5 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 723 PM Fri July 21, 2023
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT
Message 1's have been issued for the entire District and will be
valid until 10:30 PM.
An upper level disturbance is moving in from the N/NW and will result
in a round of thunderstorms for at least northern and central areas of
the District this evening. This line of storms may not sustain
themselves long enough to impact southern areas of the District and
there is a lower risk for heavy rainfall over Arapahoe and Douglas
Counties.
Storm motions will be from the NW to SE between 20-25mph which will
help limit point rainfall amounts. However, training of thunderstorms
are possible and may result in an extended period of moderate to heavy
rain. Stronger storms may also contain hail and gusty winds.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers or a weak
thunderstorm will produce a TR-0.3” total in 10-30 minutes. A
moderate to strong thunderstorm will have the potential to produce
rainfall rates of 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of thunderstorm cells may produce up to
1.2" of rain in 45-60 minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Lakewood
1
Current TO 1030 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
Douglas County
1
Current TO 1030 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
Adams County
1
Current TO 1030 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
Denver County
1
Current TO 1030 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
DIA
1
Current TO 1030 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 1030 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 1030 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
Arvada
1
Current TO 1030 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 1030 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 1030 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 1030 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
Boulder County
1
Current TO 1030 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 1030 PM FRI
0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (50%) to 0.8" (25%)
ISSUED
Arapahoe
Current TO 1030 PM FRI
0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (30%) to 0.8" (10%)
ISSUED
Boulder
Current TO 1030 PM FRI
0.1" (100%) to 0.4" (60%) to 0.8" (30%)
ISSUED
Broomfield
Current TO 1030 PM FRI
0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (50%) to 0.8" (25%)
ISSUED
Denver
Current TO 1030 PM FRI
0.1" (85%) to 0.4" (45%) to 0.8" (20%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 1030 PM FRI
0.1" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 0.8" (10%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 1030 PM FRI
0.1" (85%) to 0.4" (45%) to 0.8" (20%)
ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 1030 PM FRI
0.1" (100%) to 0.4" (60%) to 0.8" (30%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 1030 PM FRI
0.1" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 0.8" (10%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 1030 PM FRI
0.1" (85%) to 0.4" (45%) to 0.8" (20%)
ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 5 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 902 AM Fri July 21, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
SUNNY AND WARM WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
Strong northwesterly flow aloft has cleared out the disturbance that
moved through the region yesterday. Mild and sunny conditions are
expected throughout most of the day today with high temperatures
reaching the low to mid 80’s this afternoon.
A weak disturbance will move through northeastern Colorado late this
afternoon and into the early evening bringing a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms into the District. The best chance for
storms will be between 4-8pm. Storm motions will be from the NW to SE
between 20-30mph which should help limit point rainfall amounts.
However, due to elevated surface dew points, currently in the upper
50’s to around 60, and adequate daytime heating, there will be a LOW
chance for Message 1’s to be issued. Mainly for the threat of a
slower moving storm formed along an outflow boundary.
Skies will quickly clear out behind this disturbance with no
additional storms likely after sunset. Overnight lows will drop into
the low 60s. Tomorrow will be even warmer with highs around 90.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers or a weak
thunderstorm will produce a TR-0.25” total in 10-30 minutes. A
moderate thunderstorm will produce 0.25-0.50” total in 10-30
minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate to strong slow-moving thunderstorm has
the potential to produce up to 1.0” in under 60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Northwesterly flow aloft continues tomorrow leading to
even drier conditions with mostly sunny skies. Not much change on
Sunday with sunny skies as high temperatures reach the upper 90’s.
Around 100 degrees Monday with a slight chance of high based showers
and possibly a weak thunderstorm or two.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
400 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (15%)
LOW
Arapahoe
400 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.25" (20%) to 0.5" (15%)
LOW
Boulder
400 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.25" (15%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Broomfield
400 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.25" (15%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Denver
400 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.25" (15%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Douglas
400 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (25%) to 0.25" (15%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Jefferson
400 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (25%) to 0.25" (15%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
400 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.25" (15%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Douglas
400 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.25" (15%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Jefferson
400 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (20%) to 0.25" (15%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 5 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 1105 PM Thu July 20, 2023
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1’S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT
Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at midnight as the threat
for heavy rainfall has ended.
A few additional widely scattered rain showers and possibly a very
isolated weak thunderstorm will remain possible into the early morning
hours on Friday. Best chances for additional precipitation will be
through 3 or 4am then completely dry conditions are expected to
develop in and around the District.
Areas of patchy fog may develop overnight over the plains but should
burn off quickly early tomorrow morning. A significant decrease in
storm activity will occur on Friday as the upper level disturbance
that produced the multiple waves of storms today will push eastward.
Temperatures will continue to be below seasonal averages with highs in
the 80’s over the plains with 70's in the Front Range foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and possibly a
very isolated weak thunderstorm will produce a trace to 0.2” of
rain.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Although unlikely, if a moderate thunderstorm is
able to develop it will be capable of producing rainfall rates of
0.1-0.4” in 10-30 minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1130 PM
Boulder County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1130 PM
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1130 PM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1130 PM
DIA
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1130 PM
Denver County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1130 PM
Adams County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1130 PM
Douglas County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1130 PM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1130 PM
Lakewood
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1130 PM
Arvada
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1130 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1130 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 400 AM FRI
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%)
NONE
Arapahoe
Current TO 400 AM FRI
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%)
NONE
Boulder
Current TO 400 AM FRI
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%)
NONE
Broomfield
Current TO 400 AM FRI
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%)
NONE
Denver
Current TO 400 AM FRI
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%)
NONE
Douglas
Current TO 400 AM FRI
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%)
NONE
Jefferson
Current TO 400 AM FRI
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 400 AM FRI
Trace (70%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.2" (10%)
NONE
Douglas
Current TO 400 AM FRI
Trace (70%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.2" (10%)
NONE
Jefferson
Current TO 400 AM FRI
Trace (70%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.2" (10%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 5 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 616 PM Thu July 20, 2023
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1’S WILL CONTINUE VALID UNTIL 11:59 PM
Message 1’s will continue to be valid as the threat for heavy
rainfall continues as yet another round or two of showers and
thunderstorms are expected this evening.
A new batch of showers and thunderstorms are developing to the W and
will be moving through the District over the next 1-4 hours. These
evening thunderstorms are expected to be weaker than previous storms
today but with surface dew points in the upper 50's to mid 60's the
storms that do develop will be efficient rainfall producing storms and
even a moderate thunderstorm will be capable of producing brief heavy
rainfall. Some areas of the District have also experienced wetting
rains and the ground may be becoming saturated and it may not take as
much rain to produce excessive runoff in areas that have already been
impacted by strong thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will continue to be
fast moving from W to E at 20-25mph for typical storms with stronger
storms possibly moving more NW to SE.
After 9 or 10pm the threat for thunderstorms will to diminish and
Message 4's (All Clear) may be issued prior to midnight should
generally dry conditions develop.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers/thunderstorms
will produce 0.1-0.5” in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong
thunderstorm will produce 0.5-1.2” in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving strong thunderstorm or training
of thunderstorm cells has the potential to produce up to 2.0” in
45-60 minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Boulder County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
Douglas County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
Adams County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
Denver County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
DIA
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
Arvada
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
Lakewood
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.1" (70%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1" (15%)
ISSUED
Arapahoe
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.1" (70%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1" (15%)
ISSUED
Boulder
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.1" (70%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1" (15%)
ISSUED
Broomfield
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.1" (70%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1" (15%)
ISSUED
Denver
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.1" (70%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1" (15%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.1" (70%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1" (15%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.1" (70%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1" (15%)
ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.1" (70%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1" (15%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.1" (70%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1" (15%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.1" (70%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1" (15%)
ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 5 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 1119 AM Thu July 20, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1’S WILL CONTINUE VALID UNTIL 11:59 PM
Message 1’s will continue to be valid as the threat for heavy
rainfall remains.
A potent round of storms has moved eastward this morning and out of
the District. A few scattered clouds has helped keep temperatures cool
this morning. This may help the severity of storms as we head into the
afternoon, however, with good upper-level support in place, with
elevated surface dew points in the mid to upper 50’s, a good chance
for strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon and
evening. Strong to severe storms could produce large hail, up to
1.5”, frequent cloud to ground lightning and heavy rainfall leading
to localized flooding.
The next round of storms will be between noon and 2pm for western
portions of the District with storms moving east between 15-25mph.
These storm movements should help limit point rainfall amounts, with
the biggest threat being an anchored storm formed along an outflow
boundary, or training of thunderstorm cells. Multiple rounds of storms
will be possible this afternoon and evening with a slight chance for
lingering showers past midnight tonight.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers/thunderstorms
will produce 0.10-0.50” in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong
thunderstorm will produce 0.50-1.00” in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: An anchored strong thunderstorm or training of
thunderstorm cells has the potential to produce up to 2.00” in under
60 minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Boulder County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1100 PM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1100 PM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1100 PM
Douglas County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1100 PM
Adams County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1100 PM
Denver County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1100 PM
DIA
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1100 PM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1100 PM
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1100 PM
Arvada
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1100 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1100 PM
Lakewood
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1100 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1" (30%)
ISSUED
Arapahoe
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1" (30%)
ISSUED
Boulder
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1" (30%)
ISSUED
Broomfield
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1" (30%)
ISSUED
Denver
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1" (30%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1" (30%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1" (30%)
ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1" (30%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1" (30%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1" (30%)
ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 5 months