July 2023 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 736 PM Sat July 8, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 10:00 PM Messages have been extended until 10pm as the threat of heavy rain persists. A gust front from the northeast is approaching the District at this time. This gust has stirred up storms around Greeley and could also initiate storms in the District over the next couple of hours. Storms have not been that strong behind the gust front. However, a pulse up thunderstorm with mid to upper level 50’s dew points could result in a storm with quick 0.5” in 10-20 minutes. Typical storm motions will be from west to east between 10-20mph, although, storms could anchor in place behind this gust front. There is a chance storms do not initiate behind this gust front within the District, and IMS to end Messages earlier than 10pm may be possible this evening. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/weak thunderstorms produce 0.20-0.40” total, in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.4-1.2” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A large thunderstorm or briefly anchored strong thunderstorm may result in up to 2.0" of rain in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 930 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1000 PM SAT 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) to 1.2" (10%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1000 PM SAT 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) to 1.2" (10%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1000 PM SAT 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) to 1.2" (10%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1000 PM SAT 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) to 1.2" (10%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1000 PM SAT 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) to 1.2" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM SAT 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) to 1.2" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM SAT 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) to 1.2" (10%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1000 PM SAT 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) to 1.2" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM SAT 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) to 1.2" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM SAT 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) to 1.2" (10%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 123 PM Sat July 8, 2023 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT Message 1’s have been issued for the entire District effective until 800PM this evening. Favorable conditions exist across the district for widespread thunderstorm activity today, with dew points in the mid to upper 50s and broad upper level support. A few isolated showers have already initiated across the foothills and are starting to move east onto the plains. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely afternoon and into the late evening. The best chance for storms will be from now through 800PM, with a slight chance Messages will need to be extended if strong storms continue later than expected. Storm motions will be relatively brisk from west to east between 25-35 mph, which should help limit point rainfall amounts, though a slow-moving storm could result in heavy rains with runoff. Additional storms may develop along a gusty outflow or surface boundaries. These outflow or boundary storms will have the highest potential for heavy rainfall. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.5-1.5” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A large thunderstorm or briefly anchored strong thunderstorm may result in up to 2.5" of rain in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Lakewood 1 Current TO 800 PM 200 PM TO 600 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 800 PM 200 PM TO 600 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 800 PM 200 PM TO 600 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 800 PM 200 PM TO 600 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 800 PM 200 PM TO 600 PM DIA 1 Current TO 800 PM 200 PM TO 600 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 800 PM 200 PM TO 600 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 800 PM 200 PM TO 600 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 800 PM 200 PM TO 600 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 800 PM 200 PM TO 600 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 800 PM 200 PM TO 600 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 800 PM 200 PM TO 600 PM MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 900 AM Sat July 8, 2023 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ONE MORE ACTIVE DAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAIL THEN A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP Another active thunderstorm day in and around the District with stronger storms very capable of producing brief heavy rainfall but a drier weather pattern will unfold over the coming days. Temperatures will continue to run below seasonal averages with afternoon highs in the mid 70’s to around 80 over the plains. Normal high for Denver today is 90 degrees. Moisture remains abundant at the surface and aloft today with precipitable water values at or above 1.0” and surface dew points firmly in the 50’s. The available moisture will be fuel for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with some storms becoming strong to severe producing brief heavy rainfall and hail. Daytime heating will play a factor on when storms develop and exactly where the stronger storms set up remains uncertain but will likely favor areas E of I-25 (but could end up further west towards the base of the foothills). Storms will first initiate over the foothills by around noon and then spread eastward onto the plains between 1-3pm strengthening as they do so. Chances for thunderstorms will continue into the evening with prime time from 2-10pm. After 10pm chances for showers and thunderstorms diminish but remain possible through about midnight. Storm motions are brisk from W to E or WNW to ESE at 20-25mph which will help to reduce point rainfall amounts but large thunderstorms or briefly anchored thunderstorms along surface wind convergence may result in extended periods of heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. Message 1’s will likely be issued by early afternoon. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.5” of rain. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.5-1.5” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A large thunderstorm complex or briefly anchored strong thunderstorm may result in up to 2.5” of rain in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Conditions will begin to dry out on Sunday and Monday with a low chance for isolated afternoon thunderstorms, favoring areas near the foothills and over the Palmer Divide. Temperatures on Sunday warm into the 80’s with low to mid 90’s on Monday over the plains. Tuesday and Wednesday will continue to produce afternoon highs in the 90’s over the plains with plenty of sunshine and dry conditions expected. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) HIGH Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) HIGH Broomfield 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (20%) HIGH Denver 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (25%) HIGH Boulder 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (25%) HIGH Douglas 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) HIGH Jefferson 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (20%) HIGH Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (15%) MOD Douglas 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (15%) MOD Jefferson 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (15%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 857 AM Fri July 7, 2023 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS A weak cold front moved through this morning and will keep temperatures below normal once again with highs in the mid 70’s to around 80 over the plains with 60’s and 70’s in the Front Range foothills. Normal high for Denver today is 89 degrees. Slightly drier air has intruded behind the cold front this morning with surface dew points lowering into the upper 40’s to lower 50’s. The decrease in surface moisture will reduce the severity of storms today and lower the heavy rainfall threat but not eliminate it. Thunderstorms will develop over the foothills by around noon and then push eastward onto the I-25 corridor between 1-3pm. Best chances for widely scattered thunderstorms will be between 2-9pm. Strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce brief heavy rainfall, hail and gusty winds. After 9pm conditions expected to dry out for the remainder of the evening and overnight period. Thunderstorms that develop today will be fast moving from W to E or WNW to ESE at 20-30mph which will help to lower point rainfall amounts and keep heavy rainfall brief for the most part. Thunderstorms that form along surface wind convergence/outflow boundaries may move more slowly/erratically and training of thunderstorm cells could result in extended periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.4” of rain. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.4-1.0” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Slower moving thunderstorms or training of thunderstorm cells may result in up to 1.8” of rain in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Saturday will continue to feature a good chance for afternoon/evening thunderstorms with the potential for heavy rainfall. Temperatures will remain on the cool side with highs in the 70’s to around 80 over the plains. A warmer and drier weather pattern will begin to unfold on Sunday and continue through next week with conditions feeling more like summer. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1" (15%) MOD Arapahoe 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1" (15%) MOD Broomfield 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1" (15%) MOD Denver 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1" (15%) MOD Boulder 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1" (15%) MOD Douglas 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1" (15%) MOD Jefferson 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1" (15%) MOD Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 1200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (85%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1" (15%) MOD Douglas 1200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (85%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1" (15%) MOD Jefferson 1200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (85%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1" (15%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 830 PM Thu July 6, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ALL CLEAR ISSUED AS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN HAS COME TO AN END A few weak showers persist northwest of the District at this time and will taper off over the next couple of hours. A few off and on showers cannot be completely ruled out through midnight, favoring northern areas of the District, before skies gradually clear through the overnight. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50’s to low 60’s, with dew points around the same. This will result in areas of patchy to heavy fog into the morning hours. Much of the same tomorrow, a slightly better chance for a little more sunshine, with storm intensities depending on if there is sufficient daytime heating. Storms tomorrow may contain large hail, gusty winds, and an isolated funnel/land spout. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Minimal, if any additional rain, TR-0.10” as storm motions 25+ mph at this time. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 718 PM Thu July 6, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’s CONTINUE TO BE VALID AS THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN REMAINS Message 1’s will continue to be valid as the threat of heavy rain remains until 10:00pm. A few strong thunderstorms impacted eastern portions of the District earlier this afternoon and evening and have since moved eastward and onto the plains. A slight chance remains for additional storm development through 10pm, as upper-level support will hold over the area over the next couple of days. However, cooler temperatures and losing daytime heating will result in a lower chance for additional thunderstorms. Another chance for late evening showers, and off and on overnight showers into daybreak Friday. Quick storm motions, between 20-30mph will limit point rainfall amounts. Similar conditions remain in place Friday with another good chance for afternoon thunderstorms, with a slight chance for severe storms with large hail, winds 60+mph and even an isolated land spout/weak tornado or two. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will produce TR-0.25” total in 10-30 minutes. A weak to moderate thunderstorm will produce 0.25-0.75” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm, or training of moderate thunderstorm cells has the potential to produce 1.50” in up to 60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1000 PM THU Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.75" (10%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1000 PM THU Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.75" (10%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1000 PM THU Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.75" (10%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1000 PM THU Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.75" (10%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1000 PM THU Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.75" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM THU Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.75" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM THU Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.75" (10%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1000 PM THU Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.75" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM THU Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.75" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM THU Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.75" (10%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 1228 PM Thu July 6, 2023 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT Message 1’s have been issued for the entire District and will be valid until 10:00 PM this evening. Multiple ingredients are in place today for thunderstorms to become strong to severe in and around the District. The first storms are beginning to develop over the foothills and these initial storms may dissipate as the air mass is still a little cool to support surface based convection over the plains. As the afternoon progresses storms are expected to blossom and become scattered producing brief heavy rainfall, hail, gusty winds and possibly a very isolated tornado. Typical storms will move from W to E or NNW to ESE at 20-25mph with stronger storms possibly splitting and moving more slowly/erratically. Fast storm motions will help to reduce point rainfall amounts, but a large thunderstorm or training of thunderstorm cells could produce extended periods of heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.5” of rain. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.5-1.5” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving large thunderstorm or training of thunderstorm cells may result in up to 2.5” of rain in 45-75 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 130 PM TO 900 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 130 PM TO 900 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 130 PM TO 900 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 130 PM TO 900 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 130 PM TO 900 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 130 PM TO 900 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM 130 PM TO 900 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 130 PM TO 900 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM 130 PM TO 900 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM 130 PM TO 900 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM 130 PM TO 900 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM 130 PM TO 900 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (95%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED Arapahoe 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (95%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED Boulder 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (95%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED Broomfield 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (95%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED Denver 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (95%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.1" (95%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.1" (95%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.1" (95%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.1" (95%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM THU 0.1" (95%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 901 AM Thu July 6, 2023 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARMER WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER The low clouds and fog from earlier this morning is burning off quickly and with more sunshine today temperatures will warm into the 70’s over the District. Normal high for Denver today is 89 degrees. The additional heating and abundant surface moisture in place will result in stronger thunderstorms today in and around the District. Thunderstorms will first develop over the foothills between noon and 1pm, then move onto the plains between 1-3pm. Chances for thunderstorms are expected to continue well into the evening with multiple rounds of storms possible. Prime time for thunderstorms is from 2pm-midnight. Additional rain showers will continue possible beyond midnight with conditions drying out overnight. Stronger storms that develop today will have the potential to produce brief heavy rainfall and become severe with large hail and possibly a very isolated tornado. Typical storms will move from W to E or NNW to ESE at 20-30mph with stronger storms possibly moving more slowly/erratically. Fast storm motions will help to reduce point rainfall amounts but a large thunderstorm or training of thunderstorm cells could produce extended periods of heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. Message 1’s will likely be issued by early afternoon and continue well into the evening. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.5” of rain. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.5-1.5” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving large thunderstorm or training of thunderstorm cells may result in up to 2.2” of rain in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: A couple more active thunderstorm days are expected on Friday and Saturday then chances for thunderstorms decrease Sunday and Monday may end up being on the drier side. Storms that develop Friday and Saturday will continue to have the potential to become strong/severe with brief heavy rainfall and hail. Temperatures will be running either side of 80 degrees for afternoon highs over the plains. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) HIGH Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) HIGH Broomfield 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) HIGH Denver 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) HIGH Boulder 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) HIGH Douglas 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) HIGH Jefferson 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) HIGH Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 1200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) HIGH Douglas 1200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) HIGH Jefferson 1200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) HIGH MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 946 PM Wed July 5, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10:00 PM Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 10:00 pm as the threat of heavy rain has come to an end. A few showers and a weak thunderstorm or two will be possible over the next few hours as the tail end of today’s disturbance continues eastward. Storms will favor northern portions of the District through midnight. Quick storm motions from west to east, between 20-30 mph will limit any point rainfall amounts. After midnight, storm chances taper off with a few off and on showers possible through daybreak tomorrow. Overnight lows will remain in the mid to upper 50’s across most of the District. Temperatures should warm a bit more tomorrow with a better chance of some sunshine during the morning. Warmer daytime temperatures tomorrow will increase storm potential into the afternoon and early evening hours. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce a trace to 0.20” total, in 10-30 minutes. A weak thunderstorm could produce 0.20-0.40” total, in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate to strong thunderstorm has the potential to produce up to 0.80” total, in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 1000 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 600 AM THU Trace (75%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (20%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 600 AM THU Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Boulder Current TO 600 AM THU Trace (75%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (20%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 600 AM THU Trace (75%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (20%) NONE Denver Current TO 600 AM THU Trace (70%) to 0.2" (35%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Douglas Current TO 600 AM THU Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 600 AM THU Trace (70%) to 0.2" (35%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 600 AM THU Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (20%) NONE Douglas Current TO 600 AM THU Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 600 AM THU Trace (70%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.4" (15%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 433 PM Wed July 5, 2023 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT Message 1’s have been issued for the entire District and will be valid until 10:00 PM. Cool temperatures have suppressed thunderstorm activity over the District so far today but stronger storms have developed to the W/SW of the District and with abundant moisture in place should these storms survive they will be capable of producing brief heavy rainfall. With the ground at or near saturation for many areas of the District due to rainfall yesterday it may not take as much rain today to produce excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. Typical thunderstorms will move from W to E at around 20mph with stronger storms potentially moving more slowly or erratically along outflow boundaries. A large thunderstorm or training of thunderstorm cells will be the likely culprit for extended periods of heavy rainfall. Strong thunderstorms may also contain large hail. Best chances for thunderstorms will be through 10:00 PM. Should thunderstorm activity linger past 10:00 PM Message 1’s may need to be extended. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.5” of rain. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.5-1.5” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A large thunderstorm or training of thunderstorm cells may result in up to 2.3” of rain in 45-75 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (10%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (10%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (10%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (10%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (10%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM WED 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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