Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 752 AM Thu July 20, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT
Message 1’s have been issued for the entire District effective
until
Cooler and cloudy to start the day as a disturbance is poised to move
over the District throughout the day today, through the evening with a
slight chance for some overnight showers/isolated thunderstorms.
Currently temperatures are in the low 60’s with highs expected in
the upper 70’s to around 80 this afternoon. Dew points are currently
elevated, in the mid to upper 50’s and will likely remain as the day
progresses resulting in a good chance for isolated heavy rainfall
today.
Showers and thunderstorms have already initiated over portions of the
District and will likely continue through the afternoon and evening.
The best chance for storm activity within the District will be from
NOW through midnight, with a few lingering showers through the
overnight, tapering off between 2-4am. Multiple rounds of
showers/thunderstorms will be possible this morning, afternoon and
evening.
Storm motions will be the typical W to E motions between 15-25mph
which should help limit point rainfall amounts with some erratic storm
movement possible off outflow boundaries. Storms may also contain
large hail, strong winds, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning and
possible an isolated land spout/weak tornado, mainly for eastern
portions of the District, especially if temperatures increase into the
80’s.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and
thunderstorms will produce a 0.10-0.50” total, in 10-30 minutes. A
moderate to strong thunderstorm will produce 0.50-1.00” total, in
10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm anchors off an outflow
boundary, or training of
thunderstorms could potentially produce up to 2.0” total in 45-60
minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Boulder County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1100 PM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1100 PM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1100 PM
Douglas County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1100 PM
Adams County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1100 PM
Denver County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1100 PM
DIA
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1100 PM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1100 PM
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1100 PM
Arvada
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1100 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1100 PM
Lakewood
1
Current TO 1159 PM
Current TO 1100 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (70%) to 1" (35%)
ISSUED
Arapahoe
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (70%) to 1" (35%)
ISSUED
Boulder
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (70%) to 1" (35%)
ISSUED
Broomfield
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (70%) to 1" (35%)
ISSUED
Denver
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (70%) to 1" (35%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (70%) to 1" (35%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (70%) to 1" (35%)
ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (70%) to 1" (35%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (70%) to 1" (35%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 1159 PM THU
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (70%) to 1" (35%)
ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 3 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 741 AM Thu July 20, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
COOLER AND CLOUDY WITH OFF AND ON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND INTO THE EVENING
Cooler and cloudy to start the day as a disturbance is poised to
move over the District throughout the day today, through the evening
with a slight chance for some overnight showers/isolated
thunderstorms. Currently temperatures are in the low 60’s with highs
expected in the upper 70’s to around 80 this afternoon. Dew points
are currently elevated, in the mid to upper 50’s and will likely
remain as the day progresses resulting in a good chance for isolated
heavy rainfall today.
Showers and thunderstorms have already initiated over portions of the
District and will likely continue through the afternoon and evening.
The best chance for storm activity within the District will be from
NOW through midnight, with a few lingering showers through the
overnight, tapering off between 2-4am. Multiple rounds of
showers/thunderstorms will be possible this morning, afternoon and
evening with a good chance of isolated heavy rainfall resulting in a
HIGH chance for Message 1’s to be issued.
Storm motions will be the typical W to E motions between 15-25mph
which should help limit point rainfall amounts with some erratic storm
movement possible off outflow boundaries. Storms may also contain
large hail, strong winds, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning and
possible an isolated land spout/weak tornado, mainly for eastern
portions of the District, especially if temperatures increase into the
80’s.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and
thunderstorms will produce a 0.10-0.50” total, in 10-30 minutes. A
moderate to strong thunderstorm will produce 0.50-1.00” total, in
10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm anchors off an outflow
boundary, or training of thunderstorms could potentially produce up to
2.0” total in 45-60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Similar conditions remain in place Friday, although
upper-level shifts northwesterly, leading to slightly less chances for
heavy rainfall as storms expected to increase in speed during the day
and into the evening Friday. Currently at least a LOW threat for Heavy
rainfall will be possible tomorrow. Saturday should dry out with
minimal storm chances. A slightly better chance for storms Sunday
afternoon and early evening, with storm chances tapering off by
midnight.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 1000 PM THU
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%)
HIGH
Arapahoe
Current TO 1000 PM THU
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%)
HIGH
Boulder
Current TO 1000 PM THU
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%)
HIGH
Broomfield
Current TO 1000 PM THU
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%)
HIGH
Denver
Current TO 1000 PM THU
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%)
HIGH
Douglas
Current TO 1000 PM THU
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%)
HIGH
Jefferson
Current TO 1000 PM THU
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%)
HIGH
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 1000 PM THU
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%)
HIGH
Douglas
Current TO 1000 PM THU
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%)
HIGH
Jefferson
Current TO 1000 PM THU
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1" (25%)
HIGH
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 3 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 628 PM Wed July 19, 2023
Forecaster: Laura Smith
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1’S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8:00 PM
Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 8:00PM as the threat of
heavy rain has come to an end.
A few showers and a weak thunderstorm or two will be possible over the
next few hours as the tail end of today’s disturbance continues
eastward. If any storms develop, they are expected to favor southern
portions of the District through 10:00PM. Quick storm motions from
west to east, between 25-35 mph will limit any point rainfall amounts.
Overnight lows will remain in the low to mid 60’s across most of the
District.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers will produce a
trace to 0.20” total, in 10-30 minutes. A weak thunderstorm could
produce 0.20-0.40” total, in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate to strong thunderstorm has the
potential to produce up to 0.80” total, in 45-60 minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Boulder County
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
Douglas County
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
Adams County
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
Denver County
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
DIA
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
Arvada
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
Lakewood
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 1000 PM WED
Trace (35%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%)
NONE
Arapahoe
Current TO 1000 PM WED
Trace (40%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
Boulder
Current TO 1000 PM WED
Trace (35%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%)
NONE
Broomfield
Current TO 1000 PM WED
Trace (35%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%)
NONE
Denver
Current TO 1000 PM WED
Trace (35%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%)
NONE
Douglas
Current TO 1000 PM WED
Trace (40%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
Jefferson
Current TO 1000 PM WED
Trace (35%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.4" (5%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 1000 PM WED
Trace (40%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
Douglas
Current TO 1000 PM WED
Trace (40%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
Jefferson
Current TO 1000 PM WED
Trace (40%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 3 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 324 PM Wed July 19, 2023
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT
Message 1’s have been issued for the entire District and will be
valid until 8:00 PM this evening.
A potent, quick moving line of storms is approaching the District at
this time with some pockets of heavy rainfall possible over the next
couple of hours. The main threat with these cells will be a quick
0.5” in 10-15 minutes as storm movements remain fairly brisk between
20-30mph from west to east. A slight chance a few of these storms
produce outflow boundaries, which could increase the threat of
localized heavy rainfall as well.
The best chance for storms will be from now through 8pm with a few
lingering off and on showers possible into the late evening. These
later storms will also be moving quickly from west to east between
20-30mph which should continue to help limit point rainfall amounts.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak thunderstorms will produce
a 0.1-0.4” of rain. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the
potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.4-1.0” in
10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of moderate to strong thunderstorm cells
may result in up to 1.6” of rain in 45-75 minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Boulder County
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
Douglas County
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
Adams County
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
Denver County
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
DIA
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
Arvada
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
Lakewood
1
Current TO 800 PM
Current TO 700 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 800 PM WED
0.1" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1" (15%)
ISSUED
Arapahoe
Current TO 800 PM WED
0.1" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1" (15%)
ISSUED
Boulder
Current TO 800 PM WED
0.1" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1" (15%)
ISSUED
Broomfield
Current TO 800 PM WED
0.1" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1" (15%)
ISSUED
Denver
Current TO 800 PM WED
0.1" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1" (15%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 800 PM WED
0.1" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1" (15%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 800 PM WED
0.1" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1" (15%)
ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 800 PM WED
0.1" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1" (15%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 800 PM WED
0.1" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1" (15%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 800 PM WED
0.1" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1" (15%)
ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 3 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 934 AM Wed July 19, 2023
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
Thunderstorms are expected to be more numerous today and a little
stronger in and around the District with the aid of an upper level
disturbance and an increase in surface moisture. The upper level
disturbance will keep rain shower and thunderstorm chances persisting
past sunset into the overnight period. Temperatures will be cooler
with afternoon highs topping out in the mid 80’s to around 90 over
the plains with 70’s in the foothills as a weak cold front will move
through. Normal high for Denver today is 91 degrees.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to initiate ahead of noon over
the foothills with best chances for thunderstorms over the plains
between noon and 10pm. Typical storms will be relatively fast moving
from W to E at 20-25mph helping to reduce point rainfall amounts from
a single storm resulting in brief light to moderate rain from most
storms. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected from
early afternoon through late evening. Strong thunderstorms should they
develop will be capable of producing brief heavy rainfall. Training of
thunderstorm cells could be the culprit for extended periods of heavy
rainfall.
After 10pm the chances for showers and thunderstorms will begin to
decrease but remain possible beyond midnight into early morning
Thursday. Heavy rainfall is not expected overnight but cannot be
completely ruled out as moisture will be on the increase at the
surface and aloft.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak thunderstorms will produce
a 0.1-0.4” of rain. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the
potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.4-1.0” in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of moderate to strong thunderstorm cells
may result in up to 1.8” of rain in 45-75 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Thunderstorm activity is expected to peak on Thursday
with widespread to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Stronger storms
will be very capable of producing heavy rainfall that may lead to
excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. Strong storms may also
produce severe weather with large hail and gusty winds being the
greatest threats. Temperatures will continue to drop with afternoon
highs in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s over the plains. Lesser
chances for thunderstorms on Friday with temperatures remaining below
seasonal averages.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
1200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (70%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1" (15%)
MOD
Arapahoe
1200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (70%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1" (15%)
MOD
Boulder
1200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (70%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1" (15%)
MOD
Broomfield
1200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (70%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1" (15%)
MOD
Denver
1200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (70%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1" (15%)
MOD
Douglas
1200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (70%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1" (15%)
MOD
Jefferson
1200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (70%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1" (15%)
MOD
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
1100 AM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1" (10%)
LOW
Douglas
1100 AM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1" (10%)
LOW
Jefferson
1100 AM TO 1000 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1" (10%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 3 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 902 AM Tue July 18, 2023
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
HIGH BASED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MINIMAL
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
Temperatures will back off a few degrees from yesterday’s highs
with readings in the low to mid 90’s over the plains and 80’s in
the Front Range foothills. Normal high for Denver today is 91 degrees.
Skies will start out mostly sunny and become partly to mostly cloudy
this afternoon and evening.
Mid and upper level moisture will increase today but surface moisture
will be lacking resulting in high-based afternoon/evening showers and
weak thunderstorms producing minimal rainfall and gusty winds of
30-40mph or more. Most storms today will produce just sprinkles or
brief light rain, no heavy rainfall is expected. Shower and
thunderstorm coverage is expected to be isolated over the plains with
widely scattered storms over the foothills and Palmer Divide to the W
and S of the District. Best chances for showers and weak thunderstorms
will be from 3-10pm but may linger through midnight before drying out
for the overnight period.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak
thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" of rain in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate thunderstorm is able to develop over
the higher terrain producing rainfall rates of 0.1-0.4" in 10-30
minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: A cool front will move through on Wednesday and
temperatures will be closer to normal at around 90 degrees. Moisture
will begin to increase, and thunderstorms will be more likely in the
afternoon and evening with widely scattered storms. Some storms may
produce brief moderate/heavy rain and possibly hail. Thunderstorm
activity looks to peak on Thursday with scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms will be
capable of producing heavy rainfall and possibly severe weather. Highs
Thursday will only reach the lower 80s. Remaining on the cooler side
Friday with decreasing chances for thunderstorms.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
300 PM TO 1100 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (15%)
NONE
Arapahoe
300 PM TO 1100 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (15%)
NONE
Boulder
300 PM TO 1100 PM
Trace (65%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (15%)
NONE
Broomfield
300 PM TO 1100 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (15%)
NONE
Denver
300 PM TO 1100 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (15%)
NONE
Douglas
300 PM TO 1100 PM
Trace (70%) to 0.1" (35%) to 0.2" (15%)
NONE
Jefferson
300 PM TO 1100 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.2" (20%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
200 PM TO 1100 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (25%)
NONE
Douglas
200 PM TO 1100 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.2" (30%)
NONE
Jefferson
200 PM TO 1100 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.2" (30%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 3 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 801 AM Mon July 17, 2023
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
NEAR RECORD HEAT!
Today will be the warmest day of the summer so far with temperatures
potentially reaching or exceeding 100 degrees over the plains with
80’s and lower 90’s in the Front Range foothills. Normal high for
Denver today is 91 degrees and the record high is 102. NWS has issued
a Heat Advisory from 10am to 8pm for the I-25 corridor due to the
above normal temperatures today.
Conditions will be dry with plenty of sunshine and S/SE winds of
5-15mph. Relative humidity values will drop to around 10%. Overnight
lows will be warm, only falling into the mid 60’s to around 70 over
the plains with continued dry conditions.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation today or
tonight.
A LOOK AHEAD: Another hot day on Tuesday but temperatures will back
off a few degrees with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90's. There
will be a build-up of clouds late in the afternoon over the mountains
and an isolated high-based shower or weak thunderstorm is possible,
but most areas will continue to be dry for one more day or experience
just a gusty sprinkle. Better chances for afternoon/evening
thunderstorms return to the forecast on Wednesday with widely
scattered storms and temperatures at or slightly below normal for the
date.
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 3 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 832 AM Sun July 16, 2023
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
HOT, SUNNY AND DRY
Temperatures will be warmer today with afternoon highs reaching the
lower 90’s over the plains with 80’s in the Front Range foothills.
Normal high for Denver today is 91 degrees. Skies will be sunny to
mostly sunny with completely dry conditions in and around the
District. Winds will be light and variable in the 5-15mph range.
Conditions will remain dry overnight with lows in the 60’s plains
and 50’s foothills under clear to mostly clear skies.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation today or
tonight.
A LOOK AHEAD: Temperatures will peak on Monday with highs around 100
degrees over the plains with a NWS Heat Advisory is in effect for the
above normal temperatures. Tuesday will continue on the hot side with
highs well into the 90s but there is a slight chance for an afternoon
thunderstorm which may bring a reprieve from the heat for some.
Isolated storms on Tuesday will produce minimal rainfall and gusty
winds. Better chances for thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 3 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 805 PM Sat July 15, 2023
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9:00 PM
Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 9:00 PM as the threat for
heavy rainfall has ended.
Isolated thunderstorms impacted the District this afternoon and early
evening but most areas were dry despite good surface wind convergence
and ample moisture to fuel storms. The thunderstorms that developed
earlier, mainly over far northern and southern portions of the
District over Boulder, Jefferson and Douglas Counties have pushed
eastward. The surface wind convergence has also pushed well south of
the District and with cooling temperatures a more stable atmosphere is
now in place.
Dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the evening and
overnight period. Generally dry conditions are expected on Sunday with
warming temperatures into the 90's then the afternoon highs will peak
around 100 degrees on Monday over parts of the plains! Be more
prepared for heat than thunder over the next 2-3 days.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected
for the remainder of the evening and overnight period.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 3 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 458 PM Sat July 15, 2023
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
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Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
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MESSAGE 1'S HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT
Message 1’s have been issued for the entire District and will be
valid until 9;00 PM this evening.
A strong thunderstorm has entered Boulder County and will trek to the
S/SE at 20-25mph and will encounter a surface wind convergence
boundary that has set up over central portions of the Denver Metro
area. This storm alone is capable of producing heavy rainfall but may
result in additional thunderstorm activity and/or slower motions as it
interacts with the wind convergence line over central areas of the
District.
A briefly anchored strong thunderstorm will produce the greatest
threat for extended periods of heavy rainfall that may lead to
excessive runoff. Typical thunderstorms will produce brief heavy
rainfall, gusty winds and hail. Best chances for thunderstorm activity
will be until 9:00 PM this evening.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Moderate to strong
thunderstorms have the potential to produce heavy rainfall rates of
0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving strong thunderstorm will have the
potential to produce up to 1.5" in 45-60 minutes
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Boulder County
1
Current TO 900 PM
Current TO 830 PM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 900 PM
530 PM TO 830 PM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 900 PM
530 PM TO 830 PM
Douglas County
1
Current TO 900 PM
530 PM TO 830 PM
Adams County
1
Current TO 900 PM
530 PM TO 830 PM
Denver County
1
Current TO 900 PM
530 PM TO 830 PM
DIA
1
Current TO 900 PM
530 PM TO 830 PM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 900 PM
530 PM TO 830 PM
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 900 PM
530 PM TO 830 PM
Arvada
1
Current TO 900 PM
530 PM TO 830 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 900 PM
530 PM TO 830 PM
Lakewood
1
Current TO 900 PM
530 PM TO 830 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Adams
Current TO 900 PM SAT
0.1" (85%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (25%)
ISSUED
Arapahoe
Current TO 900 PM SAT
0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (15%)
ISSUED
Boulder
Current TO 900 PM SAT
0.1" (95%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (30%)
ISSUED
Broomfield
Current TO 900 PM SAT
0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (25%)
ISSUED
Denver
Current TO 900 PM SAT
0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (15%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 900 PM SAT
0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (15%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 900 PM SAT
0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (15%)
ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Boulder
Current TO 900 PM SAT
0.1" (70%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (10%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 900 PM SAT
0.1" (70%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (10%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 900 PM SAT
0.1" (70%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (10%)
ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
1 year, 3 months