July 2023 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 916 AM Wed July 5, 2023 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH/COVERAGE WILL HINGE UPON DAYTIME HEATING Temperatures will be well below normal today with afternoon highs reaching the mid 60’s to around 70 over the plains. Normal high for Denver today is 89 degrees. The temperatures will be held down due to cloud cover with the foothills and Palmer Divide breaking out of the clouds quicker than the majority of the plains. The day will start off relatively quiet with thunderstorm chances this afternoon hinging upon how much sunshine is able to develop. Should conditions stay on the cloudy/cooler side the chances for thunderstorms will be low and the storms relatively weak. If clouds break up and there is more daytime heating, then thunderstorms will be more numerous/stronger. With more sunshine expected over the foothills and Palmer Divide today these areas will be more prone for thunderstorm activity, some of which may become strong with the potential for heavy rainfall and hail. Rain showers and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will first develop over the higher terrain to the S and W of the District between noon and 2pm. Chances for thunderstorms then spread out onto the plains after 2pm and continue possible until around midnight. Storms that develop in the evening have the potential to be the stronger storms of the day. Showers and thunderstorms that develop today will be relatively fast moving from W to E at 20-25mph which will help to reduce point rainfall amounts over a single location. A large thunderstorm or training of thunderstorm cells will pose the greatest risk for extended periods of heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.5” of rain. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.5-1.5” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A large thunderstorm or training of thunderstorm cells may result in up to 2.3” of rain in 45-75 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Temperatures will warm back into the 80’s over the plains on Thursday with widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms, some of which will contain brief heavy rainfall. Daily chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms will continue Friday and Saturday with temperatures around 80 for highs over the plains. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (10%) MOD Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (10%) MOD Broomfield 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (10%) MOD Denver 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (10%) MOD Boulder 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (15%) MOD Douglas 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (15%) MOD Jefferson 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (15%) MOD Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 1200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (20%) HIGH Douglas 1200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (20%) HIGH Jefferson 1200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (20%) HIGH MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 120 AM Wed July 5, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 2AM Message 1’s will be allowed to expire at 2:00 AM as the threat for heavy rainfall has diminished. A few scattered showers currently, favoring eastern portions of the District at this time. Off and on showers/isolated thunderstorms will be possible over the next few hours. Storms have decreased significantly in intensity and should weaken to just showers over the next hour or two. Storm motions have picked up, with 20-30mph west to east movement. A chance for showers will likely continue through daybreak with another chance for storms tomorrow afternoon and evening. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will produce a TR-0.25” total, in 10-30 minutes. A weak to moderate thunderstorm could produce 0.25-0.50” total, in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate to strong thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorms has the potential to produce up to 1.0” in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Arvada 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 130 AM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 130 AM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 130 AM DIA 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 130 AM Denver County 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 130 AM Douglas County 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 130 AM Adams County 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 130 AM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 130 AM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 130 AM Boulder County 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 130 AM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 130 AM Lakewood 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 130 AM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 600 AM WED Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Arapahoe Current TO 600 AM WED Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Boulder Current TO 600 AM WED Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Broomfield Current TO 600 AM WED Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Denver Current TO 600 AM WED Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas Current TO 600 AM WED Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 600 AM WED Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 600 AM WED Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas Current TO 600 AM WED Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 600 AM WED Trace (50%) to 0.25" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1102 PM Tue July 4, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE DISTRICT UNTIL 2AM Message 1’s have been extended until 2am as the threat for heavy rain continues. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms continue to impact the District at this time. These showers and thunderstorms will continue over the next few hours with a heavy rainfall threat. Storms currently produce a quick 0.5-1.25” in 10-30 minutes. This type of rainfall will continue through midnight and should start to decrease by 2am. Additional storms possible through daybreak, however the heavy rain should be less a threat after 2am. Overnight off and on rain showers possible as lows drop into the low to mid 50’s. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/thunderstorms will produce 0.25-0.50” total, in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong thunderstorm will result in 0.50-1.25” total, in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, stationary thunderstorm has the potential to produce up to 2.0 in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 200 AM WEDNESDAY Current TO 130 AM WEDNESDAY Jefferson County 1 Current TO 200 AM WEDNESDAY Current TO 130 AM WEDNESDAY Broomfield County 1 Current TO 200 AM WEDNESDAY Current TO 130 AM WEDNESDAY Douglas County 1 Current TO 200 AM WEDNESDAY Current TO 130 AM WEDNESDAY Adams County 1 Current TO 200 AM WEDNESDAY Current TO 130 AM WEDNESDAY Denver County 1 Current TO 200 AM WEDNESDAY Current TO 130 AM WEDNESDAY DIA 1 Current TO 200 AM WEDNESDAY Current TO 130 AM WEDNESDAY Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 200 AM WEDNESDAY Current TO 130 AM WEDNESDAY the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 200 AM WEDNESDAY Current TO 130 AM WEDNESDAY Arvada 1 Current TO 200 AM WEDNESDAY Current TO 130 AM WEDNESDAY Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 200 AM WEDNESDAY Current TO 130 AM WEDNESDAY Lakewood 1 Current TO 200 AM WEDNESDAY Current TO 130 AM WEDNESDAY County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 200 AM WED 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.25" (25%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 200 AM WED 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.25" (25%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 200 AM WED 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.25" (25%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 200 AM WED 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.25" (25%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 200 AM WED 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.25" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 200 AM WED 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.25" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 200 AM WED 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.25" (25%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 200 AM WED 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.25" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 200 AM WED 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.25" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 200 AM WED 0.25" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.25" (25%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 154 PM Tue July 4, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT Message 1’s have been issued for the entire District effective until 11pm this evening. A few isolated showers and weak thunderstorms have moved through the District today. Additional rounds of storms will be possible into the late evening with storm intensities likely increasing through the night as the upper-level disturbance moves overhead. The best chance for storms will be from now, through 11pm, with a slight chance Messages will need to be extended if strong storms continue into the overnight. Storm motions will be relatively brisk from west to east between 10-20mph, which should help limit point rainfall amounts. However, there is a good chance additional storms will develop along the outflow boundaries. These outflow storms will have the highest potential for heavy rainfall. Storm may also become severe today, with large hail, strong winds and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will produce 0.50-1.00” total in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will produce 1.00-1.75” total in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong stationary storm, or training of moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce up to 2.5” in under 60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1100 PM Current TO 1000 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1100 PM TUE 0.5" (80%) to 1" (50%) to 1.75" (20%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1100 PM TUE 0.5" (80%) to 1" (50%) to 1.75" (20%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1100 PM TUE 0.5" (80%) to 1" (50%) to 1.75" (20%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1100 PM TUE 0.5" (80%) to 1" (50%) to 1.75" (20%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1100 PM TUE 0.5" (80%) to 1" (50%) to 1.75" (20%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1100 PM TUE 0.5" (80%) to 1" (50%) to 1.75" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1100 PM TUE 0.5" (80%) to 1" (50%) to 1.75" (20%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1100 PM TUE 0.5" (80%) to 1" (50%) to 1.75" (20%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1100 PM TUE 0.5" (80%) to 1" (50%) to 1.75" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1100 PM TUE 0.5" (80%) to 1" (50%) to 1.75" (20%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1000 AM Tue July 4, 2023 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT Today will be an active day across the Front Range Urban Corridor as a strong cold front approaches from the north. High temperatures will reach the mid 80s, dew points in the low 50s, precipitable water (PWAT) values around 1.00 inch support an environment favorable for scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms. Storms are expected to initiate during the early afternoon hours along the foothills before moving into the District. Thunderstorms and heavy rainfall will persist into the evening and perhaps overnight hours as the cold front works its way across the High Plains. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical thunderstorms have the potential to produce moderate to heavy rainfall of 0.75” to 1.25” in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms have the potential to produce very heavy rainfall of 1.25” to 1.75” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training or anchored thunderstorms have the potential to produce 1.75” to 2.50” in 60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Chances for showers and thunderstorms along with locally heavy rainfall will continue through Wednesday with cooler temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 100 PM TO 1200 AM WED 0.5" (85%) to 1.25" (50%) to 1.75" (15%) HIGH Arapahoe 100 PM TO 1200 AM WED 0.5" (85%) to 1.25" (50%) to 1.75" (15%) HIGH Boulder 100 PM TO 1200 AM WED 0.5" (85%) to 1.25" (50%) to 1.75" (15%) HIGH Broomfield 100 PM TO 1200 AM WED 0.5" (85%) to 1.25" (50%) to 1.75" (15%) HIGH Denver 100 PM TO 1200 AM WED 0.5" (85%) to 1.25" (50%) to 1.75" (15%) HIGH Douglas 100 PM TO 1200 AM WED 0.5" (85%) to 1.25" (50%) to 1.75" (15%) HIGH Jefferson 100 PM TO 1200 AM WED 0.5" (85%) to 1.25" (50%) to 1.75" (15%) HIGH Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 1200 PM TO 1100 PM 0.5" (85%) to 1.25" (50%) to 1.75" (15%) HIGH Douglas 1200 PM TO 1100 PM 0.5" (85%) to 1.25" (50%) to 1.75" (15%) HIGH Jefferson 1200 PM TO 1100 PM 0.5" (85%) to 1.25" (50%) to 1.75" (15%) HIGH MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 735 PM Mon July 3, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS An upper-level disturbance has moved into the region and will likely bring a few scattered showers/thunderstorms over the next few hours. These storms have initiated along the higher terrain and will be moving E/NE and through the District. Storm motions are relatively brisk between 10-20mph, which should help limit point rainfall amounts. However, if s stronger storm is able to develop, some erratic storm motions could be possible leading to a quick 0.5” in 10-20 minutes. Dew points has also increased along eastern portions of the District, into the low 50’s signaling a chance for better storm development as these storms move eastward and onto the plains. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce a TR-0.2” total, in 10-30 minutes. A moderate thunderstorm could produce 0.20-0.50” total, in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger, slow-moving thunderstorm has the potential to produce up to 1.0” in 60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Tomorrow will be an active day across the Front Range Urban Corridor as a strong cold front approaches from the north. High temperatures will reach the mid 80s with scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms initiating during the early afternoon. Thunderstorms may become severe, producing gusty outflows exceeding 58 mph, and hail greater than 1.00 inch in diameter. Storms will persist into the evening and overnight hours as the cold front works its way across the High Plains. Showers will continue through Wednesday with cooler temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 1000 PM MON Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Arapahoe Current TO 1000 PM MON Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Boulder Current TO 1000 PM MON Trace (70%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Broomfield Current TO 1000 PM MON Trace (70%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Denver Current TO 1000 PM MON Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Douglas Current TO 1000 PM MON Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM MON Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 1000 PM MON Trace (70%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Douglas Current TO 1000 PM MON Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM MON Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 904 AM Mon July 3, 2023 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HOT SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS High pressure ridging over the Desert Southwest will support sunny and hot conditions today ahead of a cold front tomorrow. This morning will be clear and dry before afternoon temperatures climb into the low to mid 90s, dew points in the mid 40s. Isolated showers are possible along the foothills throughout the afternoon and evening. There is a very low chance an isolated shower rolls off the foothills later this afternoon, with chances diminishing by the evening. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical thunderstorms have the potential to produce a TR to 0.25” 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger thunderstorm has the potential to produce 0.25” to 0.50” in 60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Tomorrow will be an active day across the Front Range Urban Corridor as a strong cold front approaches from the north. High temperatures will reach the mid 80s with scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms initiating during the early afternoon. Thunderstorms may become severe, producing gusty outflows exceeding 58 mph, and hail greater than 1.00 inch in diameter. Storms will persist into the evening and overnight hours as the cold front works its way across the High Plains. Showers will continue through Wednesday with cooler temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.05" (90%) to 0.15" (60%) to 0.25" (30%) NONE Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.05" (90%) to 0.15" (60%) to 0.25" (30%) NONE Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.05" (90%) to 0.15" (60%) to 0.25" (30%) NONE Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.05" (90%) to 0.15" (60%) to 0.25" (30%) NONE Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.05" (90%) to 0.15" (60%) to 0.25" (30%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.05" (90%) to 0.15" (60%) to 0.25" (30%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.05" (90%) to 0.15" (60%) to 0.25" (30%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1005 AM Sun July 2, 2023 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HOT SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS This morning will be sunny followed by afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will reach the mid to upper 80s. Precipitable water (PWAT) values will range from 0.65”-0.75”. Daytime heating and elevated dew points in the upper 40s to low 50s will create an unstable environment favoring isolated to scattered thunderstorms by the midafternoon. This combination will result in storms with the potential for locally moderate to heavy rainfall this afternoon through evening. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical thunderstorms have the potential to produce moderate to heavy rainfall of 0.25” to 0.75” in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms have the potential to produce very heavy rainfall of 0.75” to 1.25” in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Anchored or training thunderstorms have the potential to produce 1.25” to 1.75” in 45 to 60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: The warming trend continues tomorrow with afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and a slight chance for isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Monday will be hot and dry as temperatures climb into the upper 80s to low 90s across the Front Range Urban Corridor. On Tuesday, afternoon temperatures will reach the upper 80s once again followed by scattered showers and thunderstorms. Storms will persist into the evening and overnight hours as a cold front works its way across the High Plains. Showers will continue through Wednesday with cooler temperatures in the 70s. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.75" (35%) to 1.25" (15%) MOD Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.75" (35%) to 1.25" (15%) MOD Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.75" (35%) to 1.25" (15%) MOD Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.75" (35%) to 1.25" (15%) MOD Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.75" (35%) to 1.25" (15%) MOD Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.75" (35%) to 1.25" (15%) MOD Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.75" (35%) to 1.25" (15%) MOD Foothills above 6500ft Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.75" (35%) to 1.25" (15%) MOD Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.75" (35%) to 1.25" (15%) MOD Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.25" (75%) to 0.75" (35%) to 1.25" (15%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 514 PM Sat July 1, 2023 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS RESULTED IN BETTER STORM DEVELOPMENT AREAS NORTH An upper-level disturbance has started to move across the region at this time. Showers and weak thunderstorms have formed in Larimer & Boulder Counties and will continue southeast and through the District over the next few hours. The Best chance for shower/isolated thunderstorm activity will be from now through 9pm with a few linger showers possible into the late evening. Most if not all shower activity has diminished rapidly as it moves off the foothills. However, elevated surface dew points in the low 50’s will bring a LOW chance Message 1’s will have to be issued this evening. Storms are not expected to be particularly strong inside the District, but a gust front from a moderate thunderstorm outside of the District will have the potential for stronger storm development if that gust front ends up moving into the District. Skies will gradually clear after midnight with mild conditions expected through the overnight and into Sunday. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 50's. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce trace-0.20” total, in 10-30 minutes. A moderate thunderstorm could produce 0.20-0.50” total, in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving moderate thunderstorm, or training of thunderstorm cells has the potential to produce up to 1.0" in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Similar conditions remain in place tomorrow with another chance for afternoon and early evening showers/isolated thunderstorms. Warmer tomorrow with highs expected in the mid to upper 80’s. Warmer and likely dry Monday with highs back in the low 90’s. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Adams Current TO 900 PM SAT Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Arapahoe Current TO 900 PM SAT Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Boulder Current TO 900 PM SAT Trace (50%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Broomfield Current TO 900 PM SAT Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Denver Current TO 900 PM SAT Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas Current TO 900 PM SAT Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 900 PM SAT Trace (50%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Boulder Current TO 900 PM SAT Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Douglas Current TO 900 PM SAT Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 900 PM SAT Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 852 AM Sat July 1, 2023 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DISTRICT TODAY High pressure ridging over the Desert Southwest will support a more seasonal weather pattern in the coming days. Today will be warm, sunny, and dry as high temperatures reach the low to mid 80s. Although dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 40s, upper-level conditions will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No thunderstorm activity is expected today. WORST CASE SCENARIO: An isolated shower develops over the foothills and moves on to the plains producing a TR to 0.25” in 30-45 mins. A LOOK AHEAD: The warming trend continues tomorrow with afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and a slight chance for isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Monday will be hot and dry as temperatures climb into the upper 80s to low 90s across the Front Range Urban Corridor. On Tuesday, afternoon temperatures will reach the upper 80s once again followed by scattered showers and thunderstorms. Storms will persist into the evening and overnight hours as a cold front works its way across the High Plains. Showers will continue through Wednesday with cooler temperatures in the 70s. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

1 year, 5 months

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