August 2022 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 546 PM Mon August 22, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S CONTINUE VALID FOR PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT - Message 1's continue valid for Adams, Arapahoe, Denver, Douglas and Jefferson Counties until 8:30 PM. - Isolated weak to moderate thunderstorms have develop along a wind convergence line that extended from Douglas County northeastward into Arapahoe and Adams Counties. These initial storms has produced a weak outflow boundary pushing back to the west and has initiated a weak storm over Denver and additional storms may develop into the evening. - Most storms will be weak but a moderate to briefly strong thunderstorm will be capable of producing heavy rainfall. Best chances for thunderstorms will be over the next 60-90 minutes and Message 1's are expected to be allowed to expire this evening. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.3" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall rates of 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A nearly stationary strong thunderstorm will have the potential to produce up to 1.5" of rain in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Lakewood 1 100 PM TO 830 PM 200 PM TO 730 PM Wheat Ridge 1 100 PM TO 830 PM 200 PM TO 730 PM Arvada 1 100 PM TO 830 PM 200 PM TO 730 PM Jefferson County 1 100 PM TO 830 PM 200 PM TO 730 PM the City of Aurora 1 100 PM TO 830 PM 200 PM TO 730 PM Arapahoe County 1 100 PM TO 830 PM 200 PM TO 730 PM DIA 1 100 PM TO 830 PM 200 PM TO 730 PM Denver County 1 100 PM TO 830 PM 200 PM TO 730 PM Adams County 1 100 PM TO 830 PM 200 PM TO 730 PM Douglas County 1 100 PM TO 830 PM 200 PM TO 730 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 830 PM MON Trace (50%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.8" (5%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 830 PM MON Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 830 PM MON Trace (50%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.8" (5%) LOW Broomfield Current TO 830 PM MON Trace (50%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.8" (5%) LOW Denver Current TO 830 PM MON Trace (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.8" (15%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 830 PM MON Trace (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 830 PM MON Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.9" (10%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 830 PM MON Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (10%) LOW Douglas Current TO 830 PM MON Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 830 PM MON Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1251 PM Mon August 22, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for Adams, Arapahoe, Denver, Douglas and Jefferson Counties and will be valid until 8:30 PM. - A surface wind convergence line is currently draped across portions of Adams, Arapahoe and Douglas Counties. This is an area that may initiate thunderstorms later this afternoon. Should storms develop they will be stationary or move very little and stronger storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall that could lead to excessive runoff. Should the risk increase for heavy rainfall over Boulder and Broomfield Counties, Message 1's may be issued later this afternoon. - Best chances for storms overall looks to be E of I-25 and S of I-70 with prime time between 2:00 PM and 7:30 PM. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.3" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall rates of 0.3-0.9" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A nearly stationary strong thunderstorm will have the potential to produce up to 1.6" of rain in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Lakewood 1 100 PM TO 830 PM 200 PM TO 730 PM Arvada 1 100 PM TO 830 PM 200 PM TO 730 PM Wheat Ridge 1 100 PM TO 830 PM 200 PM TO 730 PM the City of Aurora 1 100 PM TO 830 PM 200 PM TO 730 PM Arapahoe County 1 100 PM TO 830 PM 200 PM TO 730 PM DIA 1 100 PM TO 830 PM 200 PM TO 730 PM Denver County 1 100 PM TO 830 PM 200 PM TO 730 PM Douglas County 1 100 PM TO 830 PM 200 PM TO 730 PM Adams County 1 100 PM TO 830 PM 200 PM TO 730 PM Jefferson County 1 100 PM TO 830 PM 200 PM TO 730 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 100 PM TO 830 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Arapahoe 100 PM TO 830 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.9" (20%) ISSUED Boulder 100 PM TO 830 PM 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.9" (10%) LOW Broomfield 100 PM TO 830 PM 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.9" (10%) LOW Denver 100 PM TO 830 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.9" (20%) ISSUED Douglas 100 PM TO 830 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson 100 PM TO 830 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.9" (20%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 100 PM TO 830 PM 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.9" (10%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 830 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson 100 PM TO 830 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.9" (20%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1011 AM Mon August 22, 2022 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARM WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS - Northwesterly upper-level flow aloft today will create warm conditions as high temperatures reach the low to mid 80's, dew points in the low 50's, by this afternoon. An upper level disturbance moves through the region today supporting a chance for afternoon rain showers/isolated thunderstorms. - Storm chances today will be low today as PW values across the District will reach 0.75-0.90 inches. However, a chance remains for a few rain showers/isolated thunderstorms this afternoon with the best chance between 1PM-7PM. Thunderstorm activity will favor the foothills, areas near the Palmer Divide, and east of the District today. Storm motions will be slow today, between 5-10mph from the NW to SE. - Overnight, skies will gradually clear with mild conditions expected. Lows will drop into the upper 50's to low 60's be daybreak Saturday. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers today will produce a trace to 0.2"-0.6" of rainfall in 10 to 30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slow-moving or anchored rain shower/thunderstorm will have the potential to produce 0.6"-1.2" in 10 to 30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: High pressure ridging remains the dominate pattern over the intermountain west, creating warm conditions across the District throughout the week. Tomorrow, high temperatures reach the mid to upper 80s with a slight chance for isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday will be similar with highs in the mid to upper 80s and a slight chance for isolated thunderstorm activity. By the end of the week, an upper-level disturbance over the Pacific Northwest will transport a plume of moisture into the region, supporting increased thunderstorm activity. On Thursday and Friday, scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely as high temperatures remain in the mid 80s. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Arapahoe 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Boulder 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Broomfield 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Denver 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 700 PM Trace (30%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Douglas 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Jefferson 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 816 PM Sun August 21, 2022 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE - Message 1's will be allowed to expire at 10:00 PM as the threat for heavy rainfall has ended for the day. - Rain shower activity has tapered off over the past couple hours but a few lingering light showers will continue possible into the evening. Best chances for additional showers will be through about 10:00 PM followed by generally dry conditions for the remainder of the evening and overnight period. - A low threat for heavy rainfall from slow moving afternoon thunderstorms will continue tomorrow. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Dissipating showers may produce an additional TR-0.1" across the District until 10:00pm. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 603 PM Sun August 21, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S CONTINUE VALID FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT LOWERING - Message 1's will continue valid until 9:00 PM but the threat for heavy rainfall is diminishing now that temperatures are cooling. - A line of moderate to strong thunderstorms develop along a surface wind convergence line or Denver Convergence Vorticity Zone (DCVZ) that extended from Douglas County northeastward into Arapahoe and Adams County including the DIA portion of Denver County. These storms have peaked in intensity over the past hour and the boundary is washing out resulting in a lower threat for thunderstorms with the potential for heavy rainfall into the evening. - A weak gust front is progressing eastward from these original storms and when it reaches the foothills may generate new storms but with a cooling airmass the threat for new development is low. Should a new round of thunderstorms develop, stronger storms will have the potential to produce brief heavy rainfall. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a 0.2-0.6" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.4-1.0" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, stationary thunderstorm or training of thunderstorm may result in up to 2.0" of heavy rain in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Lakewood 1 100 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 830 PM Wheat Ridge 1 100 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 830 PM Arvada 1 100 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 830 PM the City of Aurora 1 100 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 830 PM Arapahoe County 1 100 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 830 PM DIA 1 100 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 830 PM Denver County 1 100 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 830 PM Adams County 1 100 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 830 PM Douglas County 1 100 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 830 PM Broomfield County 1 100 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 830 PM Jefferson County 1 100 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 830 PM Boulder County 1 100 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 830 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 900 PM SUN Trace (95%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 900 PM SUN Trace (90%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.6" (20%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 900 PM SUN Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 900 PM SUN Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 900 PM SUN Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (15%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM SUN Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 PM SUN Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 900 PM SUN Trace (95%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM SUN Trace (95%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 PM SUN Trace (95%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 113 PM Sun August 21, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for the entire District and will be valid until 9:00 PM. - Storms have initiated over the higher terrain at this time and should continue to build over the next hour before moving into the District. Best chance for storms in the District will start around 2pm and could last through 9pm before chances start to taper off into the late evening hours. Some cloud cover this morning could help keep the stronger storms at bay, although even weak to moderate storms will produce brief heavy rainfall. - Storm motions will generally be SW to NE, however, very week steering winds will likely result in nearly stationary storms at times. these slow storm motions and relatively high moisture values at the surface and aloft will result in thunderstorms that have the potential to produce heavy rainfall that may result in excessive runoff. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will only produce a 0.1-0.4" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong rain showers/thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.4-1.2" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, stationary thunderstorm or training of thunderstorm may result in up to 2.5" of heavy rain in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 100 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 830 PM Jefferson County 1 100 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 830 PM Broomfield County 1 100 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 830 PM Douglas County 1 100 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 830 PM Adams County 1 100 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 830 PM Denver County 1 100 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 830 PM DIA 1 100 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 830 PM Arapahoe County 1 100 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 830 PM the City of Aurora 1 100 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 830 PM Arvada 1 100 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 830 PM Wheat Ridge 1 100 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 830 PM Lakewood 1 100 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 830 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.2" (10%) ISSUED Arapahoe 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.2" (10%) ISSUED Boulder 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.2" (20%) ISSUED Broomfield 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (70%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (15%) ISSUED Denver 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.2" (10%) ISSUED Douglas 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.2" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.2" (20%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.2" (20%) ISSUED Douglas 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.2" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.2" (20%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 907 AM Sun August 21, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS - Not much change to the overall pattern today as another good chance for afternoon/evening rain showers/thunderstorms with isolated heavy rainfall likely. Slightly warmer temperatures today in the upper 70's to low 80's should result in more widespread rain shower/thunderstorm chances across the District this afternoon and evening. - Storm will likely initiate along the higher terrain by midday with the best chance for storms in the District between 1-9pm. Storm movements will be slow to non-existent, which will increase the threat for moderate to heavy rainfall today. Storms could also behave similar to yesterday where they pulse up and down, triggering additional storms along the flanking outflow boundaries. This will also increase the threat for moderate to heavy rainfall through the afternoon and evening. - The largest threat for heavy rainfall will be a quick 0.5" in 10-15 minutes, however, with the threat for anchored storms today, good surface moisture, combined with decent upper-level support will have the potential for isolated areas to break over 1" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. Rainfall chances will continue through 9 or 10pm before tapering off for the evening. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will only produce 0.1"-0.5" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong rain shower/thunderstorm could produce 0.5-1.0" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong anchored rain shower/thunderstorm, or training of rain showers/thunderstorms have the potential to produce 1.0-2.5" in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Warmer and a little more dry heading into next week as Monday's high temperatures reach the low to mid 80's. A slight chance will remain for afternoon rain showers/isolated thunderstorms, however the threat for moderate to brief heavy rain will be minimal at best. Conditions dry out even more Tuesday with highs will into the 80's with a very slight chance for a few high-based afternoon rain showers/isolated thunderstorms. Mid to upper 80's Wednesday with a continued slight chance for high based rain showers/isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.0" (20%) HIGH Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.0" (20%) HIGH Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.0" (20%) HIGH Broomfield 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.0" (25%) HIGH Denver 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.0" (20%) HIGH Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.0" (25%) HIGH Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.0" (25%) HIGH Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (70%) to 0.5" (45%) to 1.0" (20%) HIGH Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.0" (25%) HIGH Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.0" (25%) HIGH MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 829 PM Sat August 20, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE - Message 1's will be allowed to expire at 9:30 PM as the threat for heavy rainfall has ended for the day. - Rain shower activity has tapered off over the past couple hours but a few lingering light showers will continue possible into the evening. Best chances for additional showers will be through about 11:00 PM. After 11:00 PM generally dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the evening and overnight period. - The threat for heavy rainfall from slow moving afternoon thunderstorms will continue on Sunday. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers will produce a trace to 0.2" of rain in 30-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM DIA 1 Current TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 60-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 1100 PM SAT Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 1100 PM SAT Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Boulder Current TO 1100 PM SAT Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 1100 PM SAT Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Denver Current TO 1100 PM SAT Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1100 PM SAT Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1100 PM SAT Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1100 PM SAT Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (15%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1100 PM SAT Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (15%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1100 PM SAT Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (15%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 724 PM Sat August 20, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S CONTINUE VALID FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT QUICKLY DIMINISHING - Message 1's will continue valid for all areas of the District until 9:30 PM but the threat for heavy rainfall is quickly diminishing. - Isolated to widely scattered light rain showers will continue likely over the next few hours. With temperatures currently in the 60's the threat for thunderstorms is very low as the atmosphere is stabilizing. Mainly isolated light rain showers are expected for the remainder of the evening but should a thunderstorm develop it will have the potential to produce brief heavy rain. - After 9 or 10pm conditions are expected to dry out for the remainder of the evening and overnight period. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will only produce a trace to 0.2" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. Weak thunderstorms should they develop will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.6" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm is able to develop producing rainfall rates of 0.4-1.0" in 10-30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM DIA 1 Current TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 930 PM SAT Trace (80%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (5%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 930 PM SAT Trace (75%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.6" (5%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 930 PM SAT Trace (90%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 930 PM SAT Trace (90%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 930 PM SAT Trace (75%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.6" (5%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 930 PM SAT Trace (80%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (5%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 930 PM SAT Trace (80%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (5%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 930 PM SAT Trace (90%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 930 PM SAT Trace (90%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 930 PM SAT Trace (90%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 216 PM Sat August 20, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for the entire District and will be valid until 9:30 PM. - Slow storm motions and high moisture values at the surface and aloft will result in thunderstorms that develop this afternoon and evening having the potential to produce heavy rainfall that may result in excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. - Cloud cover this morning may keep the stronger storms at bay but even weak to moderate storms will produce brief heavy rainfall should they develop. Best chances for thunderstorms will be from 3:30pm to 8:30pm, likely favoring the W and S areas of the District. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will only produce a trace to 0.2" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. Thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.4-1.0" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong slower moving thunderstorm or anchored thunderstorm may result in up to 2.0" of heavy rain in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Arvada 1 Current TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM DIA 1 Current TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 930 PM 330 PM TO 830 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 930 PM SAT 0.1" (70%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (15%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 930 PM SAT 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (20%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 930 PM SAT 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (20%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 930 PM SAT 0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (15%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 930 PM SAT 0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (15%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 930 PM SAT 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 930 PM SAT 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (20%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 930 PM SAT 0.1" (95%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.0" (30%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 930 PM SAT 0.1" (95%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.0" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 930 PM SAT 0.1" (95%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.0" (30%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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hpo-ims August 2022