August 2022 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 115 PM Sun August 7, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 2'S HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT - Message 2's have been issued for the entire District effective from 1pm this afternoon valid until midnight tonight. - Storms are starting to initiate along the higher terrain at this time and will continue over the next couple of hours before storms move into the District from the west this afternoon between 2-3pm. A good chance for heavy rain showers/thunderstorms across the District this afternoon as dew points remain elevated in the mid to upper 50's. Storm motions will generally be from the W/SW to E/NE between 3-8mph with additional storms likely forming along outflow boundaries resulting in some slow moving and/or stationary storms this afternoon and early evening. The slow to stationary storms will bring the biggest threat for heavy rainfall, although with so much available moisture at the surface, most storms will be efficient rainfall producers throughout the day and into this evening. - Once again there will be a slight chance storms could become severe this afternoon with wind gusts up to 60mph with hail up to 1.5". Best chance for severe weather will be areas along and east of I-25 as storms strengthen onto the plains. One or two rounds of rain showers/thunderstorms will be possible with the first round likely having the best chance for heavy rainfall at this time. Storm intensities will decrease after sunset with more scattered rain showers likely through midnight. Skies will gradually clear overnight with lows dropping into the upper 50's to low 60's by daybreak Monday. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/thunderstorms will produce 0.4-1.0" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 1.0-2.0" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong/slower moving or stationary thunderstorm may result in heavy rainfall rates of up to 3.5" in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1159 PM Jefferson County 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1159 PM Broomfield County 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1159 PM Douglas County 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1159 PM Adams County 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1159 PM Denver County 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1159 PM DIA 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1159 PM Arapahoe County 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1159 PM the City of Aurora 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1159 PM Arvada 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1159 PM Wheat Ridge 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1159 PM Lakewood 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1159 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 1159 PM SUN 0.4" (80%) to 1.0" (40%) to 2.0" (25%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM SUN 0.4" (80%) to 1.0" (40%) to 2.0" (25%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1159 PM SUN 0.4" (80%) to 1.0" (40%) to 2.0" (20%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM SUN 0.4" (80%) to 1.0" (40%) to 2.0" (20%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1159 PM SUN 0.4" (80%) to 1.0" (40%) to 2.0" (20%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM SUN 0.4" (80%) to 1.0" (40%) to 2.0" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM SUN 0.4" (80%) to 1.0" (40%) to 2.0" (20%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1159 PM SUN 0.4" (90%) to 1.0" (50%) to 2.0" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM SUN 0.4" (90%) to 1.0" (50%) to 2.0" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM SUN 0.4" (90%) to 1.0" (50%) to 2.0" (25%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 904 AM Sun August 7, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARM TODAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING - Not much change in the overall pattern from yesterday with SW upper-level flow continuing to dominate over the region today as dew points remain elevated in the upper 50's to low 60's this morning. Clouds have moved eastward bringing mostly sunny skies early which will help enhance daytime heating with highs expected in the mid to upper 80's this afternoon. Combined with adequate surface moisture, the chance for heavy rainfall will be HIGH as the National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch in effect from 2pm this afternoon until midnight tonight. - This Flood Watch will coincide with the issuance of Message 2's from 2pm this afternoon effective until midnight tonight. Initial storm development is expected to form along the higher terrain between noon and 2pm with storms moving onto the foothills between 1-3pm. Storms will then move into the District between 2-4pm with multiple rounds of storms likely through the evening before rainfall chances taper off around midnight. Storm motions will be slow today as steering winds remain fairly week with generally W/SW to E/NE storm movement between 3-8mph, however, strong storms have the potential to form along outflow boundaries and anchor in place for an extended period of time resulting in an increased chance for heavy rainfall. Heavy rainfall rates today will be between 1-3" per hour, although the likelihood of a storm lasting over one hour at a certain point remains very low at this time. - Storms that form today will have a chance to become severe, favoring areas along and east of I-25. These storms may contain gusty winds 60+mph, large hail up to 1.5" and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. After sunset, the intensity of storms should decrease with skies gradually clearing through the overnight and into Monday morning. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 50's to low 60's with mild conditions expected through daybreak tomorrow. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/thunderstorms will produce 0.2-0.6" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.6-1.6" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong anchored thunderstorm or a slower moving large thunderstorm may result in rainfall rates up to 3.2" in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Slightly cooler across the District tomorrow with drier air moving in from the NW will help limit storm activity for the afternoon and evening. A chance will remain for a few rain showers/isolated thunderstorms, with likely a low if not moderate chance for heavy rainfall, especially if we get saturated at the surface today. Conditions start to dry out Tuesday with a slight chance for a scattered rain showers, mainly along the foothills and Palmer Divide. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.2" (80%) to 0.6" (40%) to 1.6" (30%) HIGH Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.2" (80%) to 0.6" (40%) to 1.6" (30%) HIGH Boulder 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.2" (80%) to 0.6" (40%) to 1.6" (20%) HIGH Broomfield 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.2" (80%) to 0.6" (40%) to 1.6" (25%) HIGH Denver 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.2" (80%) to 0.6" (40%) to 1.6" (25%) HIGH Douglas 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.2" (80%) to 0.6" (40%) to 1.6" (25%) HIGH Jefferson 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.2" (80%) to 0.6" (40%) to 1.6" (20%) HIGH Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.2" (90%) to 0.6" (50%) to 1.6" (25%) HIGH Douglas 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.2" (80%) to 0.6" (40%) to 1.6" (25%) HIGH Jefferson 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.2" (80%) to 0.6" (40%) to 1.6" (20%) HIGH MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 849 PM Sat August 6, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9:00 PM/ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL MIDNIGHT - Message 1's will be allowed to expire at 9:00 PM as the threat for heavy rainfall has ended for the day. Additional rain showers and weak thunderstorms will remain possible until around midnight. - Strong thunderstorm activity has diminished over the past few hours with isolated light rain showers and weak thunderstorms remaining over portions of the District at this time. These showers and isolated weak thunderstorms will continue to progress eastward with conditions drying out through midnight. Additional light rain showers may re-develop overnight into early Sunday morning as a cold front moves through. - An abundance of moisture will be in place tomorrow (Sunday) and will result in a threat for thunderstorms that will be very capable of producing heavy rainfall during the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm strength will depend upon daytime heating and more sunshine early in the day will likely equate to stronger storms in the afternoon. Areas that experienced heavy rainfall today may not take as much rain tomorrow to produce runoff. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and isolated weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.3" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A briefly moderate thunderstorm is able to develop with the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.3-0.7" in 10-30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME the City of Aurora 1 200 PM TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Arapahoe County 1 200 PM TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM DIA 1 200 PM TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Denver County 1 200 PM TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Adams County 1 200 PM TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Douglas County 1 200 PM TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Broomfield County 1 200 PM TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Jefferson County 1 200 PM TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Boulder County 1 200 PM TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Arvada 1 200 PM TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Wheat Ridge 1 200 PM TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Lakewood 1 200 PM TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (80%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (20%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (90%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (25%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (90%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (80%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (15%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (80%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM SAT Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (15%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 1223 PM Sat August 6, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for the entire District valid 2pm until 9pm with prime time for heavy rainfall expected between 3pm and 8pm this evening. - Storms are starting to initiate along the higher terrain at this time and will continue over the next couple of hours before a weak disturbance moves into the District from the W/SW this afternoon between 2-3pm. This disturbance will bring a good chance for rain showers/thunderstorms across the District as dew points remain elevated in the mid to upper 50's. Storm motions will be from the W/SW to E/NE between 10-15mph, however, additional storms will likely form along outflow boundaries resulting in some slow moving and/or stationary storms this afternoon and early evening. The slow to stationary storms will bring the biggest threat for heavy rainfall, although with so much available moisture at the surface, most storms will be efficient rainfall producers. - A very slight chance storms could become severe this afternoon with wind gusts up to 60mph with hail around 1". Best chance for severe weather will be areas east of I-25 as storms strengthen onto the plains. One or two rounds of rain showers/thunderstorms will be possible with the first round likely having the best chance for a heavy rainfall threat at this time. A cold front will move through from the north through the overnight hours, effectively keeping a chance for scattered rain showers overnight and until daybreak Sunday. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak rain showers/thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.4" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.4-1.2" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong/slower moving or stationary thunderstorm may result in heavy rainfall rates of up to 2.8" in 45-75 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 200 PM TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 800 PM Jefferson County 1 200 PM TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 800 PM Broomfield County 1 200 PM TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 800 PM Douglas County 1 200 PM TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 800 PM Adams County 1 200 PM TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 800 PM Denver County 1 200 PM TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 800 PM DIA 1 200 PM TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 800 PM Arapahoe County 1 200 PM TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 800 PM the City of Aurora 1 200 PM TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 800 PM Arvada 1 200 PM TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 800 PM Wheat Ridge 1 200 PM TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 800 PM Lakewood 1 200 PM TO 900 PM 300 PM TO 800 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (25%) ISSUED Arapahoe 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (25%) ISSUED Boulder 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (25%) ISSUED Broomfield 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (25%) ISSUED Denver 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (25%) ISSUED Douglas 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (25%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.2" (30%) ISSUED Douglas 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.2" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.2" (30%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 833 AM Sat August 6, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN - Excess surface moisture with dew points in the mid to upper 50's currently will likely not mix out well through the morning. Combined with adequate heating today with highs in the low 90's this afternoon, along with a weak disturbance moving through in the early afternoon will result in a good chance for rain showers/thunderstorms, some of which may contain brief heavy rainfall. - The first signs of storm activity will form along the higher terrain between noon-2pm with storms moving into the District between 2-4pm with a couple of rounds of storm chances through sunset with moderate to heavy rain showers tapering off by 9pm this evening. Typical storm motions will be from W/SW to E/NE between 10-15mph helping limit point rainfall amounts, however, a good chance additional storms develop along outflow boundaries which will have stationary and/or erratic behavior leading to an increased chance for a heavy rainfall threat today. - Storms today may also become severe with strong winds around 60mph with hail up to 1.5". Stronger storms will likely favor areas east of I-25 this afternoon and evening. A cold front will move through the region during the overnight hours, keeping a chance for scattered rain showers through daybreak Sunday, however the intensity and chance for heavy rain should diminish after sunset tonight. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.4" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.4-1.2" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong anchored thunderstorm or a slower moving large thunderstorm may result in rainfall rates up to 2.8" in 45-75 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Cooler tomorrow behind the cold front that moves through the region through the overnight tonight. This cold front will greatly dictate the strength of storms Sunday as cooler temperatures will likely limit heavy rainfall activity, however, with lots of available moisture and good upper-level support, the threat for heavy rainfall will remain elevated at this time. Best chance for heavy rainfall tomorrow will be in the afternoon to early evening where daytime heating is at its strongest. Rain showers start to taper off Sunday evening with conditions drying out into Monday morning. A chance remains for afternoon/evening rain showers/isolated thunderstorms Monday, with a low chance for a heavy rainfall threat at this time. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.2" (20%) HIGH Arapahoe 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.2" (20%) HIGH Boulder 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (85%) to 0.4" (45%) to 1.2" (25%) HIGH Broomfield 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.2" (20%) HIGH Denver 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.2" (20%) HIGH Douglas 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (85%) to 0.4" (45%) to 1.2" (25%) HIGH Jefferson 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (85%) to 0.4" (45%) to 1.2" (25%) HIGH Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (30%) HIGH Douglas 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (30%) HIGH Jefferson 300 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.2" (30%) HIGH MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 702 PM Fri August 5, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9:00 PM - Message 1's will be allowed to expire at 9:00 PM as the threat for heavy rainfall has ended for the day. - A few thunderstorms blossomed over south and eastern areas of the District this afternoon with generally quiet conditions along the I-25 corridor westward to the base of the foothills. The boundary that produced storms has made it eastward and out of the District. A slight chance for additional rain showers over the next couple of hours before skies gradually clear through the overnight. - Overnight lows will dip into the upper 50's to low 60's with dry conditions expected through midday tomorrow. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will produce a trace to 0.1" in 10-30 minutes. A moderate rain shower/weak thunderstorm will be able to produce 0.1-0.3" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger thunderstorm has the potential to produce 0.3-0.9" in 30-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Arvada 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM DIA 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Boulder Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Denver Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Douglas Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.3" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Douglas Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 410 PM Fri August 5, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for the entire District and will be valid until 900pm this evening. - Storms have started to initiate along an outflow boundary that moved in from the west. These storms are from DIA south through Aurora and towards Chatfield reservoir. These storms will likely stay stationary along the gust front and/or move slowly NNE around 5mph. This erratic and slow movement has increased the threat for moderate to brief heavy rain. Briefly anchored or slower moving storms may create runoff or localized flooding. - Storms continue to produce along the Continental Divide and have the potential to move into the the District through the rest of the evening. The storms could trigger additional outflow boundaries into this evening which could also produce additional rain showers/thunderstorms with moderate to heavy rainfall. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak thunderstorms will produce TR-0.3" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.3-0.9" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Strong thunderstorms anchor for an extended period of time or training of thunderstorm cells has the potential to produce up to 1.8" in 45-75 min. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM DIA 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.9" (10%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.9" (10%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.9" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.9" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.9" (10%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 PM FRI Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 944 AM Fri August 5, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- NEAR RECORD HEAT ONCE AGAIN WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS - After tying the record high of 98 degrees at DIA yesterday another record may be reached today. Temperatures this afternoon will top out in the mid to upper 90's over the plains with possibly an isolated 100 degree reading. The record high for Denver today is 99 degrees and it will be in jeopardy of being reached. Normal high for Denver today is 89 degrees. How early the cloud cover develops will be a determining factor if the record is reached today. - Much like yesterday the best chances for thunderstorms this afternoon will be over the foothills to the W and Palmer Divide to the S with only isolated coverage expected most areas withing the District itself. Typical storms will produce light to briefly moderate rain and gusty winds. Outflow from storms outside the District may increase moisture levels and provide a trigger for development which could produce a stronger thunderstorm that would be capable of producing heavy rain. The chances of this playing out are very low but is the reasoning behind a LOW Message potential today. - Thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain to the W and SW between 1-3pm with chances for storm activity over the plains between 3-9pm. After 9pm dry conditions are expected. Upper level steering winds will be turning more SW as the day progresses and most storms will move from SW to NE at 10-20mph. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" of moisture. Moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.6" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Outflow from thunderstorms outside the District pushes additional moisture into the area and provides a triggering mechanism for strong thunderstorms with the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.5-1.2" in 10-30 minutes and up to 2.0" in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: A cold front will move through overnight and cool temperatures into the upper 80's to lower 90's over the plains on Saturday and increase surface moisture. Monsoon moisture will move overhead and in tandem with the up-tick in surface moisture there is expected to be a significant increase in thunderstorm activity. Strong thunderstorms Saturday will be capable of producing heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff. The threat for strong thunderstorms with the potential for heavy rainfall will continue Sunday. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.6" (5%) LOW Arapahoe 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.6" (5%) LOW Broomfield 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.6" (5%) LOW Denver 300 PM TO 900 PM Trace (60%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.6" (5%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (65%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (65%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (65%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1010 AM Thu August 4, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- NEAR RECORD HEAT WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS - Ridge of high pressure aloft will strengthen today resulting in near record heat over the District. Temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 90's over the plains with 80's in the Front Range foothills. Normal high for Denver today is 89 degrees and the record is 98 which may be tied but is not expected to be broken. - The best chances for storms will âhorseshoeâ around the majority of the District as the foothills and Palmer Divide to the W and S will have a better chance for storms and a surface wind convergence line set up to the E may fire storms over the plains. All this equates to a low chance for isolated storms most areas, generally producing light to briefly moderate rainfall and gusty winds but a stronger storm cannot be ruled out. Typical storms will move from W to E at 10-15mph. - Moisture levels are modest and storm motions relatively slow resulting in the storms that do form around the District over the foothills and Palmer Divide having the potential to produce moderate to heavy rainfall. Best chances for storms will be between 2-8pm over the foothills and Palmer Divide and between 3-8pm plains. Should storms outside the District produce rain cooled outflow boundaries it may act as a trigger for storms in areas where it is not expected currently resulting in a LOW to MODERATE Message potential. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.3" of rain. Moderate to possibly strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.3-0.9" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Surface moisture increases further than expected due to thunderstorm outflow boundaries outside the District resulting in strong/slow moving thunderstorms with the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.5-1.3" in 10-30 minutes and up to 2.0" in 60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Another HOT day on Friday with temperatures in the mid to upper 90's. Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase with widely scattered storms leading to some relief from the heat in the later afternoon as clouds build and storms form. Monsoon moisture will move overhead on Saturday and result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms with the potential to produce heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.9" (5%) LOW Arapahoe 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (65%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.9" (5%) LOW Boulder 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.9" (5%) LOW Broomfield 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.9" (5%) LOW Denver 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.9" (5%) LOW Douglas 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.9" (10%) LOW Jefferson 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (65%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.9" (5%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.9" (10%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.9" (30%) MOD Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (20%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 548 PM Wed August 3, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- GUST FRONTS S/SW OF THE DISTRICT HAVE INCREASED RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS THE DIRSTICT - A gust front is currently moving into the District from the S/SW and could potentially trigger storms across the District this evening. Best chance for storm development will be from now until 9pm. - Initial storms that moved off the foothills mixed out before impacting the Denver Metro area. Stronger storms along the Palmer Divide have produced a gust front, combined with mid 40's dew points has increased chances for moderate to brief heavy rainfall across the District. This has resulted in an updated to the HPO to include ALL counties to a LOW risk for heavy rainfall at this time on the plains with a MODERATE risk for the foothills. - Storm motions will generally be from the W/NW to E/SE between 10-20mph helping limit point rainfall amounts. However if storms do develop along the gust front, erratic storm motions will be possible which will increase the chance for moderate to brief heavy rain. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.3". Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.3-0.9" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Warm layer of air aloft erodes allowing for stronger storms over the plains with the potential to produce brief heavy rainfall of 0.4-1.2" in 10-30 minutes and up to 1.8" in 60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected on Thursday with better chances for storms over the plains. Temperatures will warm back into the 90's. Friday will also feature isolated to widely scattered storms but the weekend is looking quite active as monsoon moisture moves overhead with thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 900 PM WED Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.9" (5%) LOW Arapahoe Current TO 900 PM WED Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.9" (5%) LOW Boulder Current TO 900 PM WED Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.9" (5%) LOW Broomfield Current TO 900 PM WED Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.9" (5%) LOW Denver Current TO 900 PM WED Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.9" (5%) LOW Douglas Current TO 900 PM WED Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.9" (5%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 900 PM WED Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.9" (5%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 900 PM WED Trace (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (15%) MOD Douglas Current TO 900 PM WED Trace (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (15%) MOD Jefferson Current TO 900 PM WED Trace (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (15%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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