August 2022 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 936 AM Tue August 16, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT/MESSAGE 3'S VALID UNTIL 11:00 AM FOR BOULDER/BROOMFIELD COUNTIES - Message 1's have been issued for the entire District as an area of heavy non-thunderstorm rain has developed over NW portions of the District impacting portions of Boulder, Broomfield, Adams and Jefferson Counties. These showers have already produced 1-3" of rain or more and has resulted in Message 3's (NWS Flash Flood Warning) for portions of Boulder and Broomfield Counties with minor flooding ongoing over parts of Adams and Jefferson Counties. The Message 3's are valid until 11:00 AM. - These non-thunderstorm heavy rain showers are expected to slowly sag south as the day progresses. Best chances for rain showers will be into the early afternoon. Moisture is expected to decrease this afternoon and the best chances for rain will eventually push south of the District by late afternoon. - Thunderstorm chances will hinge upon daytime heating and if we see some sunshine this afternoon a few isolated thunderstorms may develop. If thunderstorms are able to develop they will be vary capable of producing heavy rain. Due to all of the rain yesterday and overnight the ground is saturated in many areas and it may not take as much rain today to produce excessive runoff. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Non-thunderstorm rain showers will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.5-1.5" in 10-30 minutes and 2.0-3.0" in 60-90 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A thunderstorm is able to develop this afternoon with heavy rainfall rates of 0.8-2.2" in 10-30 minutes and up to 3.5" in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 500 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 500 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 500 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 500 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 500 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 500 PM DIA 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 500 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 500 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 500 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 500 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 500 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 500 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 600 PM TUE 0.3" (100%) to 0.8" (75%) to 1.5" (40%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 600 PM TUE 0.3" (100%) to 0.8" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 600 PM TUE 0.3" (100%) to 0.8" (75%) to 1.5" (40%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 600 PM TUE 0.3" (100%) to 0.8" (80%) to 1.5" (60%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 600 PM TUE 0.3" (100%) to 0.8" (65%) to 1.5" (35%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 600 PM TUE 0.3" (100%) to 0.8" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 600 PM TUE 0.3" (100%) to 0.8" (70%) to 1.5" (35%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 600 PM TUE 0.3" (95%) to 0.8" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 600 PM TUE 0.3" (95%) to 0.8" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 600 PM TUE 0.3" (95%) to 0.8" (50%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 832 PM Mon August 15, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGES FOR THE DISTRICT WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8:30 PM - Message 1's and Message 2's will be allowed to expire at 8:30pm as the threat for heavy rainfall has come to an end. The National Weather Service in Boulder has cancelled the Flood Watch for the foothills and Palmer Divide area at this time. Message 1's will no longer be needed at this time as well. - A few lingering light to brief moderate rain showers persist over portions of the District and will likely continue through midnight before skies gradually start to clear. Typical showers will produce a trace to 0.2", with isolated higher amounts possible likely due to training of additional rain showers. Showers currently favoring areas south of I-70, however additional rain showers along the Continental Divide could move through the District bring a good chance for another round before midnight. - As skies clear through the overnight, mild conditions expected through daybreak tomorrow with low dropping into the upper 50's to low 60's on the plains with low to mid 50's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will produce a trace to 0.2" in 10-30 minutes. A moderate rain shower could produce 0.2-0.4" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate to strong rain shower/isolated thunderstorm has the potential to produce 0.4-1.2" in 30-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Jefferson County 2 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Boulder County 2 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Arvada 2 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Wheat Ridge 2 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Lakewood 2 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.4" (5%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.4" (5%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.4" (5%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.4" (5%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.4" (5%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (10%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.4" (10%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 658 PM Mon August 15, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S & 2'S WILL CONTINUE VALID UNTIL 11:59 PM - Message 1's and 2's will continue valid until 11:59pm. - Strong storms impacted the District this afternoon and evening and have since moved eastward and out of the District. A few lingering light to isolated briefly moderate rain showers persist at this time and will continue off and on over the next few hours. A chance Messages will expire prior to 11:59pm as the stronger storms stabilized the region this afternoon. - After midnight skies should start to clear with overnight lows dropping into the upper 50's to low 60's by daybreak Tuesday. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will produce a trace to 0.3" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. A moderate rain shower/weak thunderstorm could produce 0.3-0.8" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate to strong thunderstorm has the potential to produce 0.8-1.6" in 30-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 2 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Jefferson County 2 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Douglas County 2 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Arvada 2 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Wheat Ridge 2 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Lakewood 2 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (5%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (5%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (5%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (5%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (5%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (5%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (5%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM MON Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (10%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 105 PM Mon August 15, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S AND 2'S ISSUED FOR THE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for Adams, Arapahoe, Broomfield and Denver Counties and will be valid until midnight tonight. Message 2's (NWS Flood/Flash Flood Watch) have been issued for Boulder, Douglas and Jefferson Counties and will also be valid until midnight. Although Message 1's and 2's are issued for differing Counties the threat level for heavy rainfall is elevated all areas within the District. - Thunderstorms are beginning to develop over the higher terrain to the W and upper level steering winds will push these storms eastward as the afternoon progresses. Numerous showers and thunderstorms or multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected into the evening. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will be very capable of producing heavy rainfall. - The greatest threats for extended periods of heavy rainfall today will be from training of thunderstorm cells or a large, slower moving thunderstorm. The first or second round of storms will most likely be the strongest of the day but subsequent storms will be very efficient rainfall producers and even weak thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rain into the evening. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate thunderstorms will produce rainfall rates of 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall rates of 0.8-2.2" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of thunderstorm cells or a large/slower moving thunderstorm may produce up to 3.5" of rain in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Lakewood 2 100 PM TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1000 PM Wheat Ridge 2 100 PM TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1000 PM the City of Aurora 1 100 PM TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1000 PM Arapahoe County 1 100 PM TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1000 PM Denver County 1 100 PM TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1000 PM DIA 1 100 PM TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1000 PM Douglas County 2 100 PM TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1000 PM Adams County 1 100 PM TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1000 PM Broomfield County 1 100 PM TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1000 PM Boulder County 2 100 PM TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1000 PM Jefferson County 2 100 PM TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1000 PM Arvada 2 100 PM TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1000 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.5" (75%) to 1.3" (50%) to 2.0" (25%) ISSUED Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.5" (90%) to 1.3" (60%) to 2.0" (30%) ISSUED Boulder 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.5" (80%) to 1.3" (60%) to 2.0" (30%) ISSUED Broomfield 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.5" (75%) to 1.3" (50%) to 2.0" (25%) ISSUED Denver 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.5" (80%) to 1.3" (60%) to 2.0" (30%) ISSUED Douglas 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.5" (90%) to 1.3" (60%) to 2.0" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.5" (90%) to 1.3" (60%) to 2.0" (30%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1159 PM MON 0.5" (95%) to 1.3" (65%) to 2.0" (30%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM MON 0.5" (95%) to 1.3" (65%) to 2.0" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM MON 0.5" (95%) to 1.3" (65%) to 2.0" (30%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 905 AM Mon August 15, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- THUNDERSTORMS VERY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING - An upper level disturbance will move through the state today and focus monsoon moisture over the District leading to thunderstorms very capable of producing heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. The NWS in Boulder has issued a Flood Watch/Flash Flood Watch for Boulder, Jefferson and Douglas Counties above 6,000ft from 1pm to midnight. Other Counties not within the watch have a similar threat for heavy rainfall and Message 1's/2's will be issued by around noon. - Thunderstorms will first develop over the mountains and foothills between 11am and noon. Thunderstorms will become possible over the adjacent plains between noon-2pm. Numerous showers and thunderstorms or multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected into the evening. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will be very capable of producing heavy rainfall. After 10 or 11pm the threat for thunder diminishes with additional rain showers overnight into early Tuesday morning. - Upper level steering winds will generally be from W to E between 10-20mph helping to keep the storms moving along and the heavy rainfall relatively brief. The greatest threats for extended periods of heavy rainfall today will be from training of thunderstorm cells or a large, slower moving thunderstorm. The first or second round of storms will likely be the strongest of the day but subsequent storms will be very efficient rainfall producers and even weak thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rain. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate thunderstorms will produce rainfall rates of 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall rates of 0.8-2.2" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of thunderstorm cells or a large/slower moving thunderstorm may produce up to 3.5" of rain in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Lingering rain showers may persist past daybreak on Tuesday with the best chances for afternoon thunderstorms being suppressed S and W leaving the majority of the District with isolated afternoon thunderstorms. If temperatures trend too cool conditions may end up being on the drier side. With ample moisture still in place if thunderstorms do develop Tuesday afternoon they will be capable of producing heavy rain. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.5" (80%) to 1.3" (60%) to 2.0" (30%) HIGH Arapahoe 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.5" (80%) to 1.3" (60%) to 2.0" (30%) HIGH Boulder 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.5" (90%) to 1.3" (60%) to 2.0" (30%) HIGH Broomfield 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.5" (80%) to 1.3" (60%) to 2.0" (30%) HIGH Denver 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.5" (80%) to 1.3" (60%) to 2.0" (30%) HIGH Douglas 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.5" (90%) to 1.3" (60%) to 2.0" (30%) HIGH Jefferson 100 PM TO 1159 PM 0.5" (90%) to 1.3" (60%) to 2.0" (30%) HIGH Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.5" (95%) to 1.3" (65%) to 2.0" (30%) HIGH Douglas 1200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.5" (95%) to 1.3" (65%) to 2.0" (30%) HIGH Jefferson 1200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.5" (95%) to 1.3" (65%) to 2.0" (30%) HIGH MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1115 PM Sun August 14, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 11:59 PM - Message 1's will be allowed to expire at 11:59 PM as the threat for heavy rainfall has come to an end. - A few light to moderate rain showers persist over portions of the District at this time and will continue over the next few hours before tapering off before daybreak Monday. - Overnight lows will drop into the low to mid 60's with a few areas of patchy fog possible as an abundance of moisture remains at the surface. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will produce a trace to 0.2" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. A moderate rain shower/thunderstorms could produce 0.2-0.5" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate to strong thunderstorm has the potential to produce 0.5-1.5" of rainfall in 45-75 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 500 AM MONDAY Current TO 500 AM MONDAY Jefferson County 1 Current TO 500 AM MONDAY Current TO 500 AM MONDAY Broomfield County 1 Current TO 500 AM MONDAY Current TO 500 AM MONDAY Douglas County 1 Current TO 500 AM MONDAY Current TO 500 AM MONDAY Adams County 1 Current TO 500 AM MONDAY Current TO 500 AM MONDAY Denver County 1 Current TO 500 AM MONDAY Current TO 500 AM MONDAY DIA 1 Current TO 500 AM MONDAY Current TO 500 AM MONDAY Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 500 AM MONDAY Current TO 500 AM MONDAY the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 500 AM MONDAY Current TO 500 AM MONDAY Arvada 1 Current TO 500 AM MONDAY Current TO 500 AM MONDAY Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 500 AM MONDAY Current TO 500 AM MONDAY Lakewood 1 Current TO 500 AM MONDAY Current TO 500 AM MONDAY County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 500 AM MON Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 500 AM MON Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE Boulder Current TO 500 AM MON Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 500 AM MON Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE Denver Current TO 500 AM MON Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE Douglas Current TO 500 AM MON Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 500 AM MON Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 500 AM MON Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE Douglas Current TO 500 AM MON Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 500 AM MON Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 933 PM Sun August 14, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 11:59 PM FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been extended to 11:59pm as the threat for heavy rainfall remains for the District. - A few very close calls through the afternoon and evening for heavy rainfall around the District. Since, storms have continued eastward were they strengthened, eventually core dumping in far eastern Adams and Arapahoe Counties. This resulted in a gust from from the east to interact with a few lingering showers in Douglas County bringing an extended chance for moderate to brief heavy rainfall. - Currently storms are impacting northern portions of Douglas County and will likely pulse up and down, possibly triggering additional storms into other portions of the District into the late evening. Biggest threat will be a quick 0.5" in 10 minutes, however a stalled out, stronger storm has the potential to produce more rainfall. After midnight storms should lose their intensity with scattered rain showers possible through 2am before skies gradually clear through daybreak tomorrow. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.1-0.5" in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.5-1.0" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving or briefly anchored strong thunderstorm may produce rainfall amounts of up to 2.0" in 45-75 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1159 PM Current TO 1130 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 200 AM MON Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 200 AM MON Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 200 AM MON Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 200 AM MON Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 200 AM MON Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 200 AM MON Trace (80%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 200 AM MON Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 200 AM MON Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 200 AM MON Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 200 AM MON Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 455 PM Sun August 14, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S CONTINUE VALID - Message 1's issued for the entire District will continue valid until 10:00 PM but may be rescinded early if conditions warrant. - Thunderstorms west of the District diminished upon approach but sent a rain cooled outflow boundary eastward which triggered new thunderstorms over Weld County and southward over parts of Douglas and Elbert Counties. The majority of this thunderstorm activity has remained outside the District boundaries. Storms to the N have initiated a new gust front which is pushing southward and may trigger new storms over the next few hours. - Thunderstorms if they develop will be slow moving or may anchor briefly resulting in a continued threat for heavy rain should a strong thunderstorm be observed. With cooler temperatures now in place the chance for strong thunderstorms is lower than earlier this afternoon and as temperatures continue to cool into the evening the chances for strong thunderstorms will continue to decrease. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak to moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.1-0.4" in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.4-1.2" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving or briefly anchored strong thunderstorm may produce rainfall amounts of up to 2.0" in 45-75 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 1000 PM SUN 0.1" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) to 1.0" (10%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1000 PM SUN 0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (15%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1000 PM SUN 0.1" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1.0" (15%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1000 PM SUN 0.1" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) to 1.0" (10%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1000 PM SUN 0.1" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1.0" (15%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM SUN 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM SUN 0.1" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1.0" (15%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1000 PM SUN 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (15%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM SUN 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM SUN 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (15%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 124 PM Sun August 14, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for the entire District and will be valid until 10:00 PM. - Thunderstorms have developed over the higher foothills to the W of the District and upper level steering winds will push these storms eastward with thunderstorms increasing withing the District between 2-3pm. Storms will be slow moving from W to E at around 10mph. - Slow storm motions and better moisture to work with today will result in the stronger storms capable of producing heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff. The stronger storms will likely be isolated with best chances W of I-25 and S of I-70 and in particular over the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.4-1.2" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving or briefly anchored strong thunderstorm may produce rainfall amounts of up to 2.0" in 45-75 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM 230 PM TO 900 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM 230 PM TO 900 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM 230 PM TO 900 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 300 PM TO 900 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 230 PM TO 900 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.2" (75%) to 0.6" (40%) to 1.2" (15%) ISSUED Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.2" (75%) to 0.6" (40%) to 1.2" (20%) ISSUED Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.2" (80%) to 0.6" (40%) to 1.2" (20%) ISSUED Broomfield 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.2" (80%) to 0.6" (40%) to 1.2" (20%) ISSUED Denver 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.2" (80%) to 0.6" (40%) to 1.2" (20%) ISSUED Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.2" (80%) to 0.6" (40%) to 1.2" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.2" (80%) to 0.6" (40%) to 1.2" (20%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1000 PM SUN 0.2" (90%) to 0.6" (60%) to 1.2" (30%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM SUN 0.2" (90%) to 0.6" (60%) to 1.2" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM SUN 0.2" (90%) to 0.6" (60%) to 1.2" (30%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 4 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 922 AM Sun August 14, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RUN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES - Ridge of high pressure will begin to slowly break down today but temperatures will continue to run above seasonal averages. Highs this afternoon will peak in the lower 90's over the plains with 70's and 80's in the Front Range foothills. Mid and upper level moisture will begin to increase and should lead to better storm coverage than previous days with isolated to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms plains and scattered storms foothills. - Thunderstorms will develop over the mountains and foothills W of the District between noon-2pm. There is more of a westerly component to the upper level winds today and storms should begin to be pushed over the plains between 2-3pm. There will be a modest chance for showers and thunderstorms until 9 or 10pm then conditions will dry out for the later evening and overnight period. - With a bit more moisture to work with today the typical storms that develop will produce light to briefly moderate rain. Strong thunderstorms are not anticipated but if a strong thunderstorm develops it will be slow moving and capable of producing small areas of heavy rainfall. Best chances for a stronger storm today will be in or near the foothills. Overall, most storms will move from W to E at 10-15mph with stronger storms potentially moving more slowly or anchoring briefly. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" of rain. Moderate to briefly strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.6" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving or briefly anchored strong thunderstorm may produce rainfall rates of 0.4-1.2" in 10-30 minutes and up to 1.8" in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: An upper level disturbance will move overhead on Monday and result in an active weather day with scattered to numerous afternoon and evening rain showers/thunderstorms. Stronger storms will be very capable of producing heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. The NWS in Boulder may issue a Flood Watch/Flash Flood Watch later today for Monday due to the threat for heavy rain. Temperatures will be much cooler in the low to mid 80's for highs. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 300 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (75%) to 0.3" (35%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Arapahoe 300 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (75%) to 0.3" (35%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Broomfield 300 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (75%) to 0.3" (35%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Denver 300 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (75%) to 0.3" (35%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (95%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) MOD Douglas 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (95%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) MOD Jefferson 100 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (95%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 4 months

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