Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 936 AM Wed August 3, 2022
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE DISTRICT
-
Temperatures will be cooler today behind last evenings cold front
with highs topping out in the upper 80's to lower 90's over the plains
with 70's and 80's in the Front Range foothills. Normal high for
Denver today is 89 degrees. Surface moisture has increased behind the
front but the thunderstorms today will favor the foothills and Palmer
Divide W and S of the District as the air over the plains will be more
stable with cooler temperatures and a warm layer of air aloft between
450-500 millibars or between 20,000-22,000ft.
-
There will still be a chance for thunderstorms over the plains but
they will be isolated at best with many areas on the dry side today.
Thunderstorms over the foothills and Palmer Divide will have moisture
to work with and some storms may produce brief heavy rainfall making
for a fine line today between where storms are expected to fire and
where there will be less activity. Overall, minimal storm activity is
expected but the storms that do form may become moderate to strong
over the higher terrain.
-
Best chances for storms today will be over the foothills outside the
District between 1-9pm with slight chances plains between 3-9pm,
favoring I-70 south if a storm is observed. Storms will move from WNW
to ESE at 20-25mph weakening as they encounter the more stable air on
the plains. Should the stable layer erode as the day progresses
thunderstorm chances will increase lower elevations and an HPO update
may be needed.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak
thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.3". Moderate to strong
thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of
0.3-0.9" in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Warm layer of air aloft erodes allowing for
stronger storms over the plains with the potential to produce brief
heavy rainfall of 0.4-1.2" in 10-30 minutes and up to 1.8" in 60
minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected
on Thursday with better chances for storms over the plains.
Temperatures will warm back into the 90's. Friday will also feature
isolated to widely scattered storms but the weekend is looking quite
active as monsoon moisture moves overhead with thunderstorms capable
of producing heavy rainfall.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
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Adams
300 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.9" (5%)
NONE
Arapahoe
300 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.9" (5%)
NONE
Broomfield
300 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.9" (5%)
NONE
Denver
300 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.9" (5%)
NONE
Boulder
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.9" (5%)
NONE
Douglas
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (65%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.9" (10%)
LOW
Jefferson
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.9" (5%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
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Boulder
300 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (65%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.9" (10%)
LOW
Douglas
300 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.9" (20%)
LOW
Jefferson
300 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.9" (15%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
2 years, 4 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 901 AM Tue August 2, 2022
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
CONTINUED HOT WITH WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
-
Temperatures will continue to run above normal today over the
District with afternoon highs topping out in the low to mid 90's over
the plains. Normal high for Denver today is 90 degrees. An upper level
disturbance and weak cool front will move through this afternoon
producing widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.
-
Moisture will increase in the mid and upper levels but at the
surface moisture is somewhat lacking resulting in storms that develop
today mainly producing light to briefly moderate rain and breezy
winds. 1-2 rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected into the
evening between 1-8pm.
-
Upper level steering winds will be from W to E between 10-20mph
keeping the storms moving along and rainfall brief in duration. After
8pm the chances for thunderstorms diminish with possibly an isolated
rain shower or two remaining possible until 9 or 10pm.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak
thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2". Moderate thunderstorms
will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.1-0.4" in 10-30
minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Moisture increases further than anticipated this
afternoon behind a cold front resulting in stronger thunderstorms with
the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.6" in 10-30 minutes
and and up to 0.9" in 60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Cooler Wednesday behind the cold front with temperatures
more seasonal as highs will be either side of 90 degrees over the
plains. Good chances for thunderstorms will continue over the
foothills and Palmer Divide but only isolated coverage is expected
over the plains.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
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Adams
100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (20%)
NONE
Arapahoe
100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (20%)
NONE
Boulder
100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (20%)
NONE
Broomfield
100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (20%)
NONE
Denver
100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (20%)
NONE
Douglas
100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (20%)
NONE
Jefferson
100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (20%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
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Boulder
1200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (85%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.4" (25%)
LOW
Douglas
1200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (85%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.4" (25%)
LOW
Jefferson
1200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (85%) to 0.2" (60%) to 0.4" (25%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
2 years, 4 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 932 AM Mon August 1, 2022
Forecaster: Laura Smith
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
ISOLATED AFTERNOON TO EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
-
Isolated thunderstorm activity is expected across the District
today. Highs this afternoon will reach the mid 90's, dewpoints in the
mid 40's to low 50's. Best chances for thunderstorms today will be
across the foothills between noon through 7pm.
-
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to initiate across higher
terrain around noon. Storms will move east-southeast around 10-20 mph
as they traverse the plains. High-based storms will produce light to
briefly moderate rainfall and gusty winds.
-
Dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the evening and
overnight period.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak to
briefly moderate thunderstorms will produce rainfall amounts of a
trace to 0.3".
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger thunderstorm is able to develop with
the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.3-0.6" in 10-30 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: High pressure ridging continues across the intermountain
west, transporting monsoonal moisture into the state throughout the
week. The warming trend continues Tuesday with temperatures in the mid
90s and a chance for afternoon isolated showers and thunderstorms. A
cool front is expected to sweep across the plains Wednesday, bringing
temperatures down to the upper 80s followed by a chance of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Â
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Adams
100 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.6" (10%)
LOW
Arapahoe
100 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.6" (10%)
LOW
Boulder
100 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.6" (10%)
LOW
Broomfield
100 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.6" (10%)
LOW
Denver
100 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.6" (10%)
LOW
Douglas
100 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.6" (10%)
LOW
Jefferson
100 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.6" (10%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
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Boulder
1200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.6" (15%)
LOW
Douglas
1200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.6" (15%)
LOW
Jefferson
1200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.6" (15%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
2 years, 4 months