August 2022 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 934 AM Sat August 13, 2022 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HOT WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVE RAIN/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS - Upper-level monsoonal moisture is starting to move into the region this morning, which will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity across the District this afternoon and evening. High temperatures will reach the mid 90's with dew points expected to mix out into the upper 40's to low 50's. - Storms will initiate over the high country during the early afternoon and move northwest onto the plains. A cap at the mid-levels around the Denver metro area today could prevent storm development during the afternoon, with a better chance for storm development in the late afternoon/early evening as daytime heating is at its peak. Upper level flow will also be minimal today, resulting in slow storm motions between 5 to 10 mph which will also increase the chance for moderate to brief heavy rain. - Rain showers/isolated thunderstorm activity is expected to persist into the evening, with scattered rain showers dissipating before midnight. Skies will clear overnight with no precipitation expected through tomorrow morning. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong thunderstorm will produce 0.2-0.6" WORST CASE SCENARIO: Slow moving storms that form along outflow boundaries, or training of thunderstorm cells may produce 0.6-1.8" in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: On Sunday, high temperatures reach the low to mid 90s with another round of afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures begin to cool into the 80s early next week with the arrival of an upper-level disturbance. Afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms are likely Monday and Tuesday, with increasing low-level moisture resulting in locally moderate to heavy rainfall. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Broomfield 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Denver 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1119 AM Fri August 12, 2022 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE DISTRICT TODAY - No change in forecast. Reissuing to fix missing locations in table. A pocket of dry air remains over eastern Colorado, supporting clear and largely uneventful conditions across lower elevations of the District today. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Continental Divide by the afternoon. - Today will be sunny and hot with afternoon high temperatures expected to climb into the mid to upper 90s, dewpoints in the mid 40s. As upper level flow shifts from southerly to southwesterly, there is a small chance an isolated shower or two propagates into the District later afternoon/early evening. - Skies will be mostly clear overnight and into tomorrow morning. Lows will dip into the mid to upper 60s. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Isolated showers have the potential to produce a trace to 0.2" of precipitation in 30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Slow moving storms across of near the foothills may produce 0.2"-0.4" in 30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Monsoon winds will resume moisture transport into the area on Saturday, supporting a slight chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs will reach the mid to upper 90s once again. On Sunday, high temperatures reach the mid 90s with another round of afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures begin to cool a bit early next week with the arrival of an upper-level disturbance. Afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms are likely Monday and Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 80s. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 300 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 300 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Boulder 300 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Broomfield 300 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Denver 300 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Douglas 300 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Jefferson 300 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 2 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 944 AM Fri August 12, 2022 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE DISTRICT TODAY - A pocket of dry air remains over eastern Colorado, supporting clear and largely uneventful conditions across lower elevations of the District today. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Continental Divide by the afternoon. - Today will be sunny and hot with afternoon high temperatures expected to climb into the mid to upper 90s, dewpoints in the mid 40s. As upper level flow shifts from southerly to southwesterly, there is a small chance an isolated shower or two propagates into the District later afternoon/early evening. - Skies will be mostly clear overnight and into tomorrow morning. Lows will dip into the mid to upper 60s. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Isolated showers have the potential to produce a trace to 0.2" of precipitation in 30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Slow moving storms across of near the foothills may produce 0.2"-0.4" in 30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Monsoon winds will resume moisture transport into the area on Saturday, supporting a slight chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs will reach the mid to upper 90s once again. On Sunday, high temperatures reach the mid 90s with another round of afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures begin to cool a bit early next week with the arrival of an upper-level disturbance. Afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms are likely Monday and Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 80s. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential 300 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE 300 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE 300 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE 300 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE 300 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE 300 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE 300 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 2 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 817 AM Thu August 11, 2022 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE DISTRICT TODAY - Today will be sunny and hot with afternoon high temperatures expected to climb into the mid to upper 90s, dewpoints in the mid 40s. - A pocket of dry air remains over Colorado, creating clear and largely uneventful conditions across the District today. - Skies will remain clear overnight and into tomorrow morning. Lows will dip into the upper 60s. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Storm activity is not expected across the District today. A LOOK AHEAD: Hot and dry conditions continue tomorrow with highs reaching the mid to upper 90s under sunny skies. Monsoon winds will resume moisture transport into Colorado on Saturday, supporting a slight chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs will reach the mid to upper 90s once again. On Sunday, high temperatures reach the mid 90s with another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures begin to cool a bit on Monday with the arrival of an upper-level disturbance. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are likely with highs around 90 degrees. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 2 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 904 AM Wed August 10, 2022 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DISTRICT TODAY - A pocket of dry air has settled over Colorado, creating clear and largely uneventful conditions across the District today. - Today will be sunny and hot with afternoon high temperatures expected to climb into the mid 90s, dewpoints in the mid 40s. - Skies will remain clear overnight and into tomorrow morning. Lows will dip into the mid 60s. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Storm activity is not expected across the District today. A LOOK AHEAD: Hot and dry conditions persist tomorrow with highs reaching the mid 90s under sunny skies. Monsoon winds will resume moisture transport into Colorado on Friday, creating a slight chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs will reach the mid 90s once again. Chances for afternoon storm activity improve this weekend as a moisture plume builds across the intermountain west. High temperatures remain in the mid 90s through Sunday. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 2 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 150 PM Tue August 9, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- CHANCES STARTING TO INCREASE FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH - Dew points have struggled to mix out through the morning and remain in the low to mid 50's across the District. Sufficient daytime heating has resulted increased cloud cover to eastern and southern portions of the District at this time. - These storms could strengthen as the afternoon progresses, which has resulted in a LOW chance for Message 1's for the District. Storms are not expected to be particularly strong, however, storm motions will be slowly S/SE between 3-8mph resulting in an increased chance for a quick 0.5" in 10-30 minutes. Storms will favor areas east of I-25 and southward along the Palmer Divide. A stronger storm has the potential to produce a gust front which would also elevate chances of additional storms in the District. - Best chance for storms will be from now until 6pm with clouds gradually clearing into the later evening. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 50's to low 60's on the plains with low to mid 50's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" of moisture. Moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.5" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Outflow from thunderstorms outside the District pushes additional moisture into the area and provides a triggering mechanism for strong thunderstorms with the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.5-1.0" in 10-30 minutes and up to 1.5" in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: The 90's stick around into the weekend as high-pressure holds over the District. Mostly sunny and dry tomorrow with a very slight chance for a few rain showers/isolated thunderstorms along the higher terrain. Even warmer Thursday with continued dry conditions. A slight chance for afternoon rain showers/isolated thunderstorms Friday with minimal rainfall expected as most storms remain high-based resulting in a better chance for gusty winds rather than rainfall. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 700 PM TUE Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Arapahoe Current TO 700 PM TUE Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Boulder Current TO 700 PM TUE Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Broomfield Current TO 700 PM TUE Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Denver Current TO 700 PM TUE Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas Current TO 700 PM TUE Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 700 PM TUE Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 700 PM TUE Trace (30%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas Current TO 700 PM TUE Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 700 PM TUE Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 2 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 849 AM Tue August 9, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARMER TODAY WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DISTRICT - High-pressure will start to build over the region today leading to mostly sunny skies early as high temperatures reach the upper 80's to low 90's this afternoon. This high-pressure will also usher in drier mid to upper-level air throughout the day effectively decreasing storms chances this afternoon. - However, dew points remain elevated this morning in the mid 50's to low 60's which are expected to mix out by midday with dew points expected to drop into the 40's by this afternoon. Similar to yesterday, a weak, yet persistent convergence line is starting to set up to the south and east of the District, which will result in a slight chance for storms to develop along this line bringing very pulse like storms that could produce moderate to brief heavy rain. At this time, these storms are not expected to impact the District, although, a gust front from stronger storms outside of the District has the potential to trigger additional storms on the eastern and southern fringes of the District this afternoon. - Drier air settles over the District this evening and overnight as high-pressure builds. Overnight lows expected in the low to mid 60's with mild conditions into daybreak Wednesday. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" of moisture. Moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.5" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Outflow from thunderstorms outside the District pushes additional moisture into the area and provides a triggering mechanism for strong thunderstorms with the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.5-1.0" in 10-30 minutes and up to 1.5" in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: The 90's stick around into the weekend as high-pressure holds over the District. Mostly sunny and dry tomorrow with a very slight chance for a few rain showers/isolated thunderstorms along the higher terrain. Even warmer Thursday with continued dry conditions. A slight chance for afternoon rain showers/isolated thunderstorms Friday with minimal rainfall expected as most storms remain high-based resulting in a better chance for gusty winds rather than rainfall. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE Boulder 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (10%) to 0.2" (5%) Broomfield 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (10%) to 0.2" (5%) Denver 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (10%) to 0.2" (5%) Douglas 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (20%) to 0.2" (10%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.5" (5%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 2 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 840 AM Mon August 8, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARM, MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS - After two days of isolated heavy rainfall, mid to upper-level moisture has decreased with strong westerly to northwesterly flow aloft leading to much drier conditions today and this evening. A slight chance for scattered rain showers/thunderstorms this afternoon, although most places will likely stay dry as storms favor areas south and east of the District. - A few storms will likely fire along the higher terrain around midday along the Continental and Palmer Divides. These storms have a slight chance of moving into the District this afternoon between 1-6pm with skies clearing through the rest of the evening. Excess surface moisture currently with dew points in the upper 50's to low 60's will unfortunately keep at least a low chance these scattered rain showers will produce moderate to brief heavy rainfall, with the highest threat being a quick 0.5" in 10 minutes as storms quickly pulse up and then rain themselves out. - As storms move eastward, skies will clear around sunset with overnight lows dropping into the upper 50's to low 60's by daybreak tomorrow. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" of moisture. Moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.5" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Outflow from thunderstorms outside the District pushes additional moisture into the area and provides a triggering mechanism for strong thunderstorms with the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.5-1.0" in 10-30 minutes and up to 1.5" in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Conditions finally start to completely dry out at the surface Tuesday leading to dry conditions throughout the day and evening. Warmer Wednesday with highs back into the 90's with continued dry conditions. Thursday will bring the next chance for rain showers/isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Arapahoe 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Boulder 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Broomfield 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Denver 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 600 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 3 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1159 PM Sun August 7, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 2'S HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT - Message 2's (NWS Flood/Flash Flood Watch) has been allowed to expire at midnight. - Rain showers have come to an end over the past hour from NW to SE and generally dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the overnight period. - Drier weather will develop on Monday with only isolated afternoon thunderstorms favoring the higher terrain. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No meaningful additional precipitation is expected, less than 0.1". COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 2 100 PM TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1159 PM Jefferson County 2 100 PM TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1159 PM Broomfield County 2 100 PM TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1159 PM Douglas County 2 100 PM TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1159 PM Adams County 2 100 PM TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1159 PM Denver County 2 100 PM TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1159 PM DIA 2 100 PM TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1159 PM Arapahoe County 2 100 PM TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1159 PM the City of Aurora 2 100 PM TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1159 PM Arvada 2 100 PM TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1159 PM Wheat Ridge 2 100 PM TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1159 PM Lakewood 2 100 PM TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1159 PM MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 3 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1017 PM Sun August 7, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 3'S HAVE EXPIRED AT 10:15PM/MESSAGE 2'S REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL MIDNIGHT - The Message 3's (NWS Flash Flood Warning) issued for Adams, Arapahoe and Denver Counties has been allowed to expire. Message 2's (NWS Flood/Flash Flood Watch) will remain in place until midnight unless cancelled early as thunderstorm activity is diminishing. - Moderate to strong thunderstorms moved through the District this afternoon and evening producing anywhere from 1-3" of rain under the stronger storms. Rainfall intensities reached 1.0"/10 minutes under the stronger storms. The thunderstorm activity has diminished over the past hour with rain showers in their wake which will continue well into the evening. - Additional rain showers although light in intensity will continue to produce runoff and creeks and streams will be running high into the overnight period. Rain showers are expected to taper off after midnight but may linger into the early morning hours on Monday. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers will produce a trace to 0.2" of rain in 10-30 minutes. Weak thunderstorms will produce 0.2-0.6" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate thunderstorm is able to develop with the potential to produce 0.4-1.2" of heavy rain in 10-30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1100 PM Jefferson County 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1100 PM Broomfield County 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1100 PM Douglas County 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1100 PM Adams County 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1100 PM Denver County 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1100 PM DIA 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1100 PM Arapahoe County 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1100 PM the City of Aurora 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1100 PM Arvada 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1100 PM Wheat Ridge 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1100 PM Lakewood 2 Current TO 1159 PM 200 PM TO 1100 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 1159 PM SUN Trace (95%) to 0.2" (65%) to 0.6" (15%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM SUN Trace (95%) to 0.2" (65%) to 0.6" (15%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1159 PM SUN Trace (95%) to 0.2" (65%) to 0.6" (15%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM SUN Trace (95%) to 0.2" (65%) to 0.6" (15%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1159 PM SUN Trace (95%) to 0.2" (65%) to 0.6" (15%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM SUN Trace (95%) to 0.2" (65%) to 0.6" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM SUN Trace (95%) to 0.2" (65%) to 0.6" (15%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1159 PM SUN Trace (95%) to 0.2" (65%) to 0.6" (15%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM SUN Trace (95%) to 0.2" (65%) to 0.6" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM SUN Trace (95%) to 0.2" (65%) to 0.6" (15%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 3 months

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