August 2022 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 828 AM Sat August 20, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- COOLER TODAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING - Northwesterly upper-level flow aloft will turn westerly as a strong disturbance moves just south of Colorado during the day today. A cold front that passed through last night will limit daytime temperatures today which could help decrease the rainfall severity throughout the day and evening. - Today's high temperatures will almost touch 80 degrees this afternoon before clouds start to increase as storms initiate along the higher terrain around midday. Showers and thunderstorms will likely move into the District between 2-4pm with rain/thunderstorms chances through 10pm-midnight, with a slight chance for a few scattered overnight rain showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm or two. However, the best chance for heavy rainfall will be through 10pm as showers are expected to taper off in intensity into the late evening hours. - Storm motions today will also increase chances for brief heavy rain as slow motions from west to east up to 5mph will result in a high likelihood of some stationary storm movements this afternoon and evening. That being said, the largest threat will be a quick 0.5" in 10-15 minutes as most storms pulse up and down fairly quickly today. Although a stronger anchored storm, or training of thunderstorm cells could produce extended periods of moderate to heavy rainfall this afternoon and early evening. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will only produce a trace to 0.2" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. A moderate rain shower/isolated thunderstorm could produce 0.2- 0.6" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong anchored rain shower/thunderstorm, or training of rain showers/thunderstorms have the potential to produce 0.6-1.8" in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: This active pattern holds into Sunday with another chance for off and on rain showers/thunderstorms during the day with some of these likely to produce brief heavy rainfall in the afternoon and early evening. Conditions start to dry out slightly Monday and Tuesday, however a chance will remain for afternoon/evening rain showers/isolated thunderstorms, with a minimal chance for heavy rain at this time. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (70%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW Broomfield 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Denver 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (70%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (70%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.6" (25%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.6" (25%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 1000 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.6" (25%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 246 AM Sat August 20, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE - Message 1's will be allowed to expire at 4:00 AM as the threat for heavy rainfall has ended. - An isolated light rain shower remains possible into mid-morning. Heavy rainfall is not expected. - Thunderstorms will become likely later this afternoon with stronger storms capable of producing heavy rain. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Isolated light rain showers will produce rainfall amounts of TR-0.3". COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 300 AM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 300 AM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 300 AM Douglas County 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 300 AM Adams County 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 300 AM Denver County 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 300 AM DIA 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 300 AM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 300 AM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 300 AM Arvada 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 300 AM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 300 AM Lakewood 1 Current TO 400 AM Current TO 300 AM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 900 AM SAT Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 900 AM SAT Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Boulder Current TO 900 AM SAT Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 900 AM SAT Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Denver Current TO 900 AM SAT Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Douglas Current TO 900 AM SAT Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 900 AM SAT Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 900 AM SAT Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Douglas Current TO 900 AM SAT Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 900 AM SAT Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1006 PM Fri August 19, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 4:00 AM FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been extended until 4:00 AM tomorrow morning as the threat for heavy rainfall remains. - An outflow boundary from a cell to the south has moved all the way through the District initiating a few isolated rain showers/thunderstorms at this time. These storms have not been exceptionally strong, however, with good upper-level support aloft and dew points in the 50's, even small/weak showers have been efficient rain producers as they quickly pulse up and down. This will result in the largest threat being a quick 0.5" in 10-15 minutes as a storm pulses up and quickly rains itself out. - Best chance for these showers will be from now until 4am. Storms this evening will be very hit and miss as they remain fairly stationary, which has also increased the chance for isolated brief heavy rainfall through the overnight. Skies will gradually clear tomorrow by daybreak with another chance for showers/thunderstorms tomorrow. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will produce a trace to 0.3" in 10-30 minutes. a moderate to strong rain shower/thunderstorm will produce 0.3-0.6" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong, stationary storm has the potential to produce 0.6-1.8" in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Arvada 1 Current TO 400 AM SATURDAY Current TO 300 AM SATURDAY the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 400 AM SATURDAY Current TO 300 AM SATURDAY Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 400 AM SATURDAY Current TO 300 AM SATURDAY DIA 1 Current TO 400 AM SATURDAY Current TO 300 AM SATURDAY Denver County 1 Current TO 400 AM SATURDAY Current TO 300 AM SATURDAY Adams County 1 Current TO 400 AM SATURDAY Current TO 300 AM SATURDAY Douglas County 1 Current TO 400 AM SATURDAY Current TO 300 AM SATURDAY Broomfield County 1 Current TO 400 AM SATURDAY Current TO 300 AM SATURDAY Jefferson County 1 Current TO 400 AM SATURDAY Current TO 300 AM SATURDAY Boulder County 1 Current TO 400 AM SATURDAY Current TO 300 AM SATURDAY Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 400 AM SATURDAY Current TO 300 AM SATURDAY Lakewood 1 Current TO 400 AM SATURDAY Current TO 300 AM SATURDAY County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 400 AM SAT Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 400 AM SAT Trace (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.6" (5%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 400 AM SAT Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 400 AM SAT Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 400 AM SAT Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 400 AM SAT Trace (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.6" (5%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 400 AM SAT Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 400 AM SAT Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 400 AM SAT Trace (40%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.6" (5%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 400 AM SAT Trace (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 656 PM Fri August 19, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S CONTINUE VALID - Message 1's issued for the entire District will continue valid until 10:00 PM - A line of storms has developed, first initiating in Adams County before strengthening southward into Aurora and Arapahoe Counties. These storms briefly produced heavy rain and are now moving eastward and out of the District. - Outflow boundaries have resulted in additional storm development towards DIA and will have the potential to produce more storms across the District through the few hours. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers/thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to stronger rain shower/thunderstorm could produce 0.2-0.6" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: An anchored, strong thunderstorm has the potential to produce 0.6-1.2" in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 1000 PM FRI Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1000 PM FRI Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1000 PM FRI Trace (30%) to 0.2" (10%) to 0.6" (5%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1000 PM FRI Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (5%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1000 PM FRI Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM FRI Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM FRI Trace (30%) to 0.2" (10%) to 0.6" (5%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1000 PM FRI Trace (30%) to 0.2" (10%) to 0.6" (5%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM FRI Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM FRI Trace (30%) to 0.2" (10%) to 0.6" (5%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 342 PM Fri August 19, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for the entire District and will be valid until 10:00 PM. - A few storms have initiated along the higher terrain towards the west and south along the Palmer Divide. A boundary has set up from north to south from Brighton through Parker and is currently the focus point for stronger storm development this afternoon. Storm motions are generally expected from NW to SE between 5-10mph, however some storm motions today have been erratic as storms pulse up quickly, with additional storms developing off outflow boundaries which has increased the chance for brief heavy rainfall this afternoon and evening. - The best chance for storms will be from now through 10pm this evening with stronger storms capable of producing heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff. The largest threat today will be a quick 0.5" in 10-15 minutes. The stronger storms will likely be isolated with best chances along and E of I-25 at this time. Storm chances taper off after 10pm as the overnight dries out with mild conditions expected into daybreak Saturday. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.4-0.9" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving or briefly anchored strong thunderstorm may produce rainfall amounts of up to 1.8" in 45-75 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 1000 PM FRI 0.1" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1000 PM FRI 0.1" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1000 PM FRI 0.1" (40%) to 0.4" (20%) to 0.9" (10%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1000 PM FRI 0.1" (40%) to 0.4" (20%) to 0.9" (10%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1000 PM FRI 0.1" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM FRI 0.1" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM FRI 0.1" (40%) to 0.4" (20%) to 0.9" (10%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1000 PM FRI 0.1" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM FRI 0.1" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM FRI 0.1" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) to 0.9" (15%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 804 AM Fri August 19, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARM WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS - Northwesterly upper-level flow aloft today will bring mild conditions early as high temperatures reach the low to mid 80's this afternoon. A weak disturbance moves through the region this afternoon bringing a chance for afternoon rain showers/isolated thunderstorms. - Storm chances today will be hit or miss for the most part with most areas coming in dry. However, a chance will remain for a few rain showers/isolated thunderstorms this afternoon with the best chance between 2-8pm. Storm motions should be fairly brisk, between 10-15mph from the NW to SE which should help limit point rainfall amounts, although a slight chance for a storm to form along an outflow boundary and produce a quick 0.5" in 10 minutes resulting in a LOW chance for Message 1 issuance this afternoon. - After 8pm, skies will gradually clear with mild conditions expected through the overnight. Lows will drop into the upper 50's to low 60's be daybreak Saturday. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will only produce a trace to 0.2" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. A moderate rain shower/isolated thunderstorm could produce 0.2-0.5" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm, or anchored rain shower/thunderstorm, likely formed off an outflow boundary has the potential to produce 0.5-1.5" in 60-90 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: An active weather pattern will hold through the weekend with rain showers/thunderstorm chances both Saturday and Sunday. Saturday's storms will favor areas south and along the Palmer Divide at this time. Sunday will bring a better chance for widespread rainfall across the District with a better chance for moderate to brief heavy rainfall. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 806 AM Thu August 18, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARMER WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS TODAY - North to northwesterly flow aloft today will result in mild conditions throughout the day a high temperatures reach up to 90 degrees this afternoon. - Mostly sunny currently with surface winds out the the SW between 5-10mph will hold through most of the day. A few clouds this afternoon, although no precipitation is expected at this time. - Overnight lows will drop into the upper 50's to low 60's on the plains with low 50's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected today or this evening. A LOOK AHEAD: Slightly cooler tomorrow as high temperatures reach the low to mid 80's. A chance for afternoon and evening rain/isolated thunderstorms, however, minimal rainfall is expected at this time. An uptick in mid to upper-level moisture moves into the region Saturday along with a cold front will result in a better chance for off and on rain showers during the day with a good chance for late afternoon and evening rain showers/thunderstorms. Temperatures will only reach the 70's Saturday, which could help limit the intensity of storms throughout the day. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 847 AM Wed August 17, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE DISTRICT TODAY - The trough of low pressure responsible for the last couple days of heavy rain has pushed southward and taken the chances for showers and thunderstorms along with it. Many areas within the District experienced between 1-3" of rain Monday and Tuesday with isolated higher amounts. - Temperatures will warm into the low and mid 80's over the plains with 60's and 70's in the Front Range foothills which is slightly below normal for the date. Normal high for Denver today is 87 degrees. - Shower and thunderstorm chances will be suppressed to the S and W with dry conditions expected today. Showers and thunderstorms may develop to the W and S of the District over the foothills and crest of the Palmer Divide but upper level steering winds from NW to SE will keep these potential showers and thunderstorms from entering the District. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected today and tonight. A LOOK AHEAD: Another dry day is in store for Thursday with temperatures returning to near normal values in the mid to upper 80's for highs over the plains. Thunderstorm chances will increase Friday with better chances Saturday and Sunday. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 502 PM Tue August 16, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6:00 PM - Message 1's will be allowed to expire at 6:00pm as the threat for heavy rainfall has come to an end at this time. - A few lingering rain showers currently along the Continental and Palmer Divide which are bringing between a trace and 0.2" of rainfall in 10-30 minutes. These showers will likely hang around over the next several hours before tapering off, keeping a chance across the District for light to brief moderate rainfall through 2am Wednesday. - Cooler temperatures currently around 70 degrees should help limit any rainfall potential, however with dew points in the upper 50's to around 60 degrees combined with a weak front moving in from the N/NE later this evening, any rain showers could potentially produce strong rainfall at times resulting in a LOW threat for Messages 1 to be reissued this evening. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers will produce a trace to 0.2" in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong rain shower could produce 0.2-0.6" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate to strong rain shower/isolated thunderstorm has the potential to produce 0.6-1.8" in 30-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 600 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 600 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 600 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 600 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 600 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 600 PM DIA 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 600 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 600 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 600 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 600 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 600 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 600 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 200 AM WED Trace (30%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Arapahoe Current TO 200 AM WED Trace (30%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Boulder Current TO 200 AM WED Trace (30%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Broomfield Current TO 200 AM WED Trace (30%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Denver Current TO 200 AM WED Trace (30%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Douglas Current TO 200 AM WED Trace (30%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 200 AM WED Trace (30%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 200 AM WED Trace (40%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Douglas Current TO 200 AM WED Trace (40%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 200 AM WED Trace (40%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 138 PM Tue August 16, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S CONTINUE VALID - Message 1's will continue valid until 6:00pm this evening. - The area of moderate to heavy rainfall has diminished over the District with lingering light rain showers currently ongoing. The atmosphere is more stable behind these showers but any daytime heating will result in additional showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon. - Rain showers will be capable of moderate to brief heavy rain with any thunderstorm activity very capable of producing heavy rainfall. With the cooler temperatures currently in place (60's to around 70 over the plains) the threat for thunderstorm activity is low. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers will produce 0.3-0.8" rainfall rates in 10-30 minutes. Weak thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.4-1.2" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Temperatures warm further than expected with the potential for moderate to strong thunderstorms to produce heavy rainfall of 0.8-2.0" in 10-30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 500 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 500 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 500 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 500 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 500 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 500 PM DIA 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 500 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 500 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 500 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 500 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 500 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 600 PM Current TO 500 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 600 PM TUE 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 600 PM TUE 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 600 PM TUE 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 600 PM TUE 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 600 PM TUE 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 600 PM TUE 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 600 PM TUE 0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 600 PM TUE 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 600 PM TUE 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 600 PM TUE 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (25%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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