Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2@udfcd.org
Time: 949 AM Sun July 31, 2022
Forecaster: Laura Smith
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
ISOLATED AFTERNOON TO EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
-
Isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity is expected across the
District today. Highs this afternoon will reach the low to mid 90's,
dewpoints in the upper 40's to low 50's. Best chances for
thunderstorms today will be across the foothills between 1pm-10pm.
-
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to fire across
higher terrain during the early afternoon hours. Storms will move
east-southeast around 10-20 mph, becoming isolated as they traverse
the plains. High-based storms will produce light to briefly moderate
rainfall and gusty winds.
-
Dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the evening and
overnight period.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak to
briefly moderate thunderstorms will produce rainfall amounts of a
trace to 0.4".
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger thunderstorm is able to develop with
the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.4-0.8" in 10-30 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: High pressure ridging continues across the intermountain
west, transporting monsoonal moisture into the state throughout the
weekend and into next week. Temperatures remain hot this week as a
heat wave builds into Colorado. Monday will be hot with a slight
chance for afternoon thunderstorms and highs in the low to mid 90s.
The warming trend continues Tuesday with temperatures in the low to
mid 90s and a chance for afternoon isolated showers and thunderstorms.
A cool front is expected to sweep across the plain Wednesday, bringing
temperatures down to the mid 80s followed by a chance of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Â
Â
Â
Adams
100 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.4" (20%) to 0.8" (10%)
LOW
Arapahoe
100 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.4" (20%) to 0.8" (10%)
LOW
Boulder
100 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.4" (20%) to 0.8" (10%)
LOW
Broomfield
100 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.4" (20%) to 0.8" (10%)
LOW
Denver
100 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.4" (20%) to 0.8" (10%)
LOW
Douglas
100 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.4" (20%) to 0.8" (10%)
LOW
Jefferson
100 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.4" (20%) to 0.8" (10%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Â
Â
Â
Boulder
100 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 0.8" (15%)
LOW
Douglas
100 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 0.8" (15%)
LOW
Jefferson
100 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 0.8" (15%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
2 years, 4 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2@udfcd.org
Time: 944 AM Sat July 30, 2022
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
HOT CONDITIONS WITH A DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
-
Thunderstorm activity is expected to be relatively light and
isolated today. Highs this afternoon will reach the upper 80's to low
90's, dewpoints in the mid 40's.
-
Isolated afternoon thunderstorms that develop will be high-based
producing mainly light rainfall and gusty winds. Best chances for
thunderstorms today will be over the foothills and Palmer Divide
between 2-8pm.
-
Dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the evening and
overnight period.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak to
briefly moderate thunderstorms will produce rainfall amounts of a
trace to 0.2".
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger thunderstorm is able to develop with
the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.5" in 10-30 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: High pressure ridging continues across the intermountain
west, transporting monsoonal moisture into the state throughout the
weekend and into next week. Sunday will be similar with highs in the
upper 80s to low 90s and a slight chance for isolated afternoon
thunderstorms. Temperatures return to the mid 90âs next week as a
heat wave builds into Colorado.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Â
Â
Â
Adams
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Arapahoe
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Boulder
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Broomfield
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Denver
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Douglas
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Jefferson
200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (5%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Â
Â
Â
Boulder
100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%)
NONE
Douglas
100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%)
NONE
Jefferson
100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
2 years, 4 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2@udfcd.org
Time: 720 PM Fri July 29, 2022
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8:00 PM
-
Message 1's will be allowed to expire at 8:00 PM as the threat for
heavy rainfall has ended for the day.
-
Thunderstorms blossomed over eastern areas of the District this
afternoon with generally quiet conditions along the I-25 corridor
westward to the base of the foothills. The boundary that produced
storms has made it into the foothills and no subsequent storms have
developed allowing Messages to expire.
-
Now that temperatures are cooling the threat for thunderstorms has
greatly diminished with dry conditions expected for the remainder of
the evening and overnight period.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected
greater than a trace.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Boulder County
1
100 PM TO 800 PM
130 PM TO 700 PM
Jefferson County
1
100 PM TO 800 PM
130 PM TO 700 PM
Broomfield County
1
100 PM TO 800 PM
130 PM TO 700 PM
Douglas County
1
100 PM TO 800 PM
130 PM TO 700 PM
Adams County
1
100 PM TO 800 PM
130 PM TO 700 PM
Denver County
1
100 PM TO 800 PM
130 PM TO 700 PM
DIA
1
100 PM TO 800 PM
130 PM TO 700 PM
Arapahoe County
1
100 PM TO 800 PM
130 PM TO 700 PM
the City of Aurora
1
100 PM TO 800 PM
130 PM TO 700 PM
Arvada
1
100 PM TO 800 PM
130 PM TO 700 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
100 PM TO 800 PM
130 PM TO 700 PM
Lakewood
1
100 PM TO 800 PM
130 PM TO 700 PM
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
2 years, 4 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2@udfcd.org
Time: 122 PM Fri July 29, 2022
Forecaster: Laura Smith
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT
-
Message 1's have been issued for the entire District and will be
valid until 800pm this evening.
-
We are expecting one or two rounds of thunderstorms this afternoon,
initiating across higher terrain during the early afternoon, moving
across lower elevations mid to late afternoon. Prime time is between
3pm and 7pm, with a small chance an isolated storm or two is kicked up
via outflow boundary from storms east of the District after 7pm.
-
Storm motions will be slower today; ESE at 10-15 mph. Thunderstorms
will be capable of producing heavy rain. Briefly anchored or slower
moving storms may create runoff or localized flooding. Due to recent
rains, the ground is saturated in some areas, creating conditions for
more rapid runoff across the District.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak thunderstorms will produce
0.3-1.0" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have
the potential to produce 1.0-2.0" in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong anchored thunderstorm or a slower moving
large thunderstorm may result in rainfall rates up to 3.0" in 45-75
minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Boulder County
1
100 PM TO 800 PM
130 PM TO 700 PM
Lakewood
1
100 PM TO 800 PM
130 PM TO 700 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
100 PM TO 800 PM
130 PM TO 700 PM
Arvada
1
100 PM TO 800 PM
130 PM TO 700 PM
the City of Aurora
1
100 PM TO 800 PM
130 PM TO 700 PM
Arapahoe County
1
100 PM TO 800 PM
130 PM TO 700 PM
DIA
1
100 PM TO 800 PM
130 PM TO 700 PM
Denver County
1
100 PM TO 800 PM
130 PM TO 700 PM
Adams County
1
100 PM TO 800 PM
130 PM TO 700 PM
Douglas County
1
100 PM TO 800 PM
130 PM TO 700 PM
Broomfield County
1
100 PM TO 800 PM
130 PM TO 700 PM
Jefferson County
1
100 PM TO 800 PM
130 PM TO 700 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Â
Â
Â
Adams
Current TO 800 PM FRI
0.2" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) to 1.8" (15%)
ISSUED
Arapahoe
Current TO 800 PM FRI
0.2" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) to 1.8" (15%)
ISSUED
Boulder
Current TO 800 PM FRI
0.2" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) to 1.8" (15%)
ISSUED
Broomfield
Current TO 800 PM FRI
0.2" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) to 1.8" (15%)
ISSUED
Denver
Current TO 800 PM FRI
0.2" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) to 1.8" (15%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 800 PM FRI
0.2" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) to 1.8" (15%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 800 PM FRI
0.2" (60%) to 0.6" (30%) to 1.8" (15%)
ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Â
Â
Â
Boulder
Current TO 800 PM FRI
0.2" (80%) to 0.6" (40%) to 1.8" (20%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 800 PM FRI
0.2" (80%) to 0.6" (40%) to 1.8" (20%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 800 PM FRI
0.2" (80%) to 0.6" (40%) to 1.8" (20%)
ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
2 years, 4 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2@udfcd.org
Time: 946 AM Fri July 29, 2022
Forecaster: Laura Smith
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TODAY/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES
-
A saturated column is in place over the District this morning with
surface dewpoints in the mid 50s to around 60 degrees expected today.
In addition to abundant moisture, a Denver Cyclone and accompanying
surface boundary at the DCVZ have been steadily developing throughout
the morning. Storm motions will be slower today; ESE at 10-15 mph.
These conditions favor thunderstorms capable of producing up to
1.0"-2.0" of heavy rain fall in 10-30 minutes. Hail is also possible.
-
Like yesterday, cloud cover may prevent radiational warming,
inhibiting storm development across the lower elevations. However,
current observations show the stratus deck across the District is
already starting to erode. Convective temperature is around 85 degrees
today, which should be reached if clouds continue to dissipate.
-
Storms will initiate across higher terrain between noon and 2PM,
moving into the District by 3PM. Outflow boundaries will trigger
clusters of storms that will slowly propagate east and anchor to the
convergence boundary on the eastern side of the District. Prime time
is between 3pm and 7pm, with a small chance an isolated shower or two
is kicked up via outflow boundary from storms on the convergence line
after 7pm. Storm activity is not expected overnight or tomorrow
morning.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak thunderstorms will produce
0.3-1.0" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have
the potential to produce 1.0-2.0" in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong anchored thunderstorm or a slower moving
large thunderstorm may result in rainfall rates up to 3.0" in 45-75
minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: High pressure ridging continues across the intermountain
west, transporting monsoonal moisture into the state through the
weekend. Conditions across the state will begin drying tomorrow.
Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be isolated and relatively
light. Highs will be in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Sunday
will be similar with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and a slight
chance for isolated afternoon thunderstorms.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Â
Â
Â
Adams
100 PM TO 800 PM
0.3" (60%) to 1.0" (30%) to 2.0" (15%)
MOD
Arapahoe
100 PM TO 800 PM
0.3" (60%) to 1.0" (30%) to 2.0" (15%)
MOD
Boulder
100 PM TO 800 PM
0.3" (60%) to 1.0" (30%) to 2.0" (15%)
MOD
Broomfield
100 PM TO 800 PM
0.3" (60%) to 1.0" (30%) to 2.0" (15%)
MOD
Denver
100 PM TO 800 PM
0.3" (60%) to 1.0" (30%) to 2.0" (15%)
MOD
Douglas
100 PM TO 800 PM
0.3" (60%) to 1.0" (30%) to 2.0" (15%)
MOD
Jefferson
100 PM TO 800 PM
0.3" (60%) to 1.0" (30%) to 2.0" (15%)
MOD
Foothills above 6500ft
Â
Â
Â
Boulder
100 PM TO 800 PM
0.3" (90%) to 1.0" (60%) to 2.0" (30%)
HIGH
Douglas
100 PM TO 800 PM
0.3" (90%) to 1.0" (60%) to 2.0" (30%)
HIGH
Jefferson
100 PM TO 800 PM
0.3" (90%) to 1.0" (60%) to 2.0" (30%)
HIGH
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
2 years, 4 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2@udfcd.org
Time: 351 PM Thu July 28, 2022
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1'S & 2'S WILL CONTINUE VALID UNTIL 10:00 PM
-
Message 2's for Boulder, Broomfield and Jefferson Counties will
continue valid until 10:00pm. Message 1's for the remainder of the
District will also continue valid until 10:00pm as the threat for
heavy rainfall remains.
-
Initial storm development has held off as sufficient cloud cover
helped limit daytime heating today. Models are still indicating a
decent chance for a round or two of rain showers this evening. The
best chance for storms looks to be from 5pm, through 8pm with
scattered rain showers/isolated thunderstorms possible between 8-11pm
before rainfall chances taper off through the overnight.
-
Storms that do develop will be efficient rainfall producers very
capable of producing heavy downpours that may lead to excessive runoff
and possibly flash flooding. Storms will be relatively slow moving
from NW to SE between 10-15mph, with a chance some storms may anchor
in place leading to an increase chance for isolated long lasting
moderate to heavy rainfall, especially along the foothills this
evening.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain
showers/thunderstorms will produce 0.3-1.0" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate
to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall
rates of 1.0-2.0 in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong anchored thunderstorm or training of
moderate to strong thunderstorms may result in rainfall rates up to
3.0" in 45-75 minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Wheat Ridge
2
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
Lakewood
2
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
Arvada
2
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
DIA
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
Adams County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
Denver County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
Douglas County
1
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
Broomfield County
2
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
Jefferson County
2
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
Boulder County
2
Current TO 1000 PM
Current TO 1000 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Â
Â
Â
Adams
Current TO 1000 PM THU
0.3" (50%) to 1.0" (25%) to 2.0" (5%)
ISSUED
Arapahoe
Current TO 1000 PM THU
0.3" (50%) to 1.0" (25%) to 2.0" (5%)
ISSUED
Boulder
Current TO 1000 PM THU
0.3" (50%) to 1.0" (25%) to 2.0" (5%)
ISSUED
Broomfield
Current TO 1000 PM THU
0.3" (50%) to 1.0" (25%) to 2.0" (5%)
ISSUED
Denver
Current TO 1000 PM THU
0.3" (50%) to 1.0" (25%) to 2.0" (5%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 1000 PM THU
0.3" (50%) to 1.0" (25%) to 2.0" (5%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 1000 PM THU
0.3" (50%) to 1.0" (25%) to 2.0" (5%)
ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Â
Â
Â
Boulder
Current TO 1000 PM THU
0.3" (75%) to 1.0" (50%) to 2.0" (10%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 1000 PM THU
0.3" (75%) to 1.0" (50%) to 2.0" (10%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 1000 PM THU
0.3" (75%) to 1.0" (50%) to 2.0" (10%)
ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
2 years, 5 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2@udfcd.org
Time: 1054 AM Thu July 28, 2022
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 2'S HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT WITH MESSAGE
1'S ISSUED FOR THE REMAINDER
-
Message 2's (NWS Flash Flood/Flood Watch) have been issued for
Boulder, Broomfield and Jefferson Counties valid 11:00 AM until 10:00
PM. Message 1's have been issued for the remainder of the District to
coincide with Message 2's effective 11:00 AM until 10:00 PM this
evening.
-
Cooler and cloudy today after another overnight heavy rainfall
threat. An excess of available moisture at the surface and
upper-levels combined with a disturbance that will move through this
afternoon has brought an increased threat for widespread heavy
rainfall. Rain showers and thunderstorms will fist develop along the
higher terrain between now till noon with storms likely moving into
the District between noon and 1pm. Prime time for moderate to strong
thunderstorms will be until 9 or 10pm before skies gradually clear
into the overnight with minimal rainfall expected past midnight
tonight.
-
Thunderstorms will be efficient rainfall producers very capable of
producing heavy downpours that may lead to excessive runoff and
possibly flash flooding. Storms will be relatively slow moving from W
to E between 5-10mph, with a chance some storms may anchor in place
leading to an increase chance for isolated long lasting moderate to
heavy rainfall.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain
showers/thunderstorms will produce 0.3-1.0" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate
to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall
rates of 1.0-2.0 in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong anchored thunderstorm or training of
moderate to strong thunderstorms may result in rainfall rates up to
3.0" in 45-75 minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Douglas County
1
1100 AM TO 1000 PM
1100 AM TO 1000 PM
Broomfield County
2
1100 AM TO 1000 PM
1100 AM TO 1000 PM
Jefferson County
2
1100 AM TO 1000 PM
1100 AM TO 1000 PM
Boulder County
2
1100 AM TO 1000 PM
1100 AM TO 1000 PM
Lakewood
2
1100 AM TO 1000 PM
1100 AM TO 1000 PM
Wheat Ridge
2
1100 AM TO 1000 PM
1100 AM TO 1000 PM
Arvada
2
1100 AM TO 1000 PM
1100 AM TO 1000 PM
the City of Aurora
1
1100 AM TO 1000 PM
1100 AM TO 1000 PM
Arapahoe County
1
1100 AM TO 1000 PM
1100 AM TO 1000 PM
DIA
1
1100 AM TO 1000 PM
1100 AM TO 1000 PM
Denver County
1
1100 AM TO 1000 PM
1100 AM TO 1000 PM
Adams County
1
1100 AM TO 1000 PM
1100 AM TO 1000 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Â
Â
Â
Adams
1100 AM TO 1159 PM
0.3" (90%) to 1.0" (45%) to 2.0" (20%)
ISSUED
Arapahoe
1100 AM TO 1159 PM
0.3" (90%) to 1.0" (45%) to 2.0" (20%)
ISSUED
Boulder
1100 AM TO 1159 PM
0.3" (90%) to 1.0" (45%) to 2.0" (20%)
ISSUED
Broomfield
1100 AM TO 1159 PM
0.3" (90%) to 1.0" (45%) to 2.0" (20%)
ISSUED
Denver
1100 AM TO 1159 PM
0.3" (90%) to 1.0" (45%) to 2.0" (20%)
ISSUED
Douglas
1100 AM TO 1159 PM
0.3" (90%) to 1.0" (45%) to 2.0" (20%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
1100 AM TO 1159 PM
0.3" (90%) to 1.0" (45%) to 2.0" (20%)
ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Â
Â
Â
Boulder
1100 AM TO 1159 PM
0.3" (95%) to 1.0" (50%) to 2.0" (25%)
ISSUED
Douglas
1100 AM TO 1159 PM
0.3" (95%) to 1.0" (50%) to 2.0" (25%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
1100 AM TO 1159 PM
0.3" (95%) to 1.0" (50%) to 2.0" (25%)
ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
2 years, 5 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2@udfcd.org
Time: 844 AM Thu July 28, 2022
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
COOLER TODAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS/EXCESSIVE RUNOFF LIKELY
-
Another overnight round of heavy rainfall and isolated thunderstorms
impacted the District with a few linger light rain showers currently.
These light rain showers will continue to taper off through the
morning with cloudy to partly cloudy skies likely throughout the day
leading to high temperatures to only reach the 70's this afternoon.
-
The NWS has issued a Flash Flood Watch for Boulder County from 11am
today until 10pm this evening above 6,000ft. This Flash Flood Watch
will result in Message 2's being issued for Boulder County from 11am
to 10pm to sync with the NWS. Message 1's will be issued for all
Counties effective at 11am until 10pm to coincide with the Message 2's
as the threat for heavy rainfall will include the entire District at
this time.
-
Thunderstorms will first initiate over the mountains and foothills W
of the District between 10am and noon. Upper-level steering winds from
W to E at 5-10mph will slowly push the storms eastward onto the plains
between noon and 1 or 2pm. Prime time for wetting rain showers and
moderate to strong thunderstorms will be from 1pm to 10pm. Multiple
rounds (2-3) of storms are possible through the afternoon into the
early evening. Moderate to strong thunderstorms that develop today
will be efficient rainfall producers as moisture levels are very high
for Colorado standards. Even moderate thunderstorms will have the
potential to produce heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms will be
very capable of producing heavy downpours that may lead to excessive
runoff and flash flooding.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak thunderstorms will produce
0.3-1.0" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have
the potential to produce 1.0-2.0" in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong anchored thunderstorm or a slower moving
large thunderstorm may result in rainfall rates up to 3.0" in 45-75
minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Not much change in the overall pattern heading into
Friday. Low-level moisture will still be abundant and with slightly
warmer temperatures the threat for heavy rainfall will likely continue
at least for Friday and possible into Saturday before drier air
finally moves in this weekend. However, a chance will remain Saturday
afternoon and evening for rain showers/isolated thunderstorms.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Â
Â
Â
Adams
1200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.3" (90%) to 1.0" (45%) to 2.0" (20%)
HIGH
Arapahoe
1200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.3" (90%) to 1.0" (45%) to 2.0" (20%)
HIGH
Boulder
1200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.3" (90%) to 1.0" (45%) to 2.0" (20%)
HIGH
Broomfield
1200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.3" (90%) to 1.0" (45%) to 2.0" (20%)
HIGH
Denver
1200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.3" (90%) to 1.0" (45%) to 2.0" (20%)
HIGH
Douglas
1200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.3" (90%) to 1.0" (45%) to 2.0" (20%)
HIGH
Jefferson
1200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.3" (90%) to 1.0" (45%) to 2.0" (20%)
HIGH
Foothills above 6500ft
Â
Â
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Boulder
1200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.3" (95%) to 1.0" (50%) to 2.0" (25%)
HIGH
Douglas
1200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.3" (95%) to 1.0" (50%) to 2.0" (25%)
HIGH
Jefferson
1200 PM TO 1000 PM
0.3" (95%) to 1.0" (50%) to 2.0" (25%)
HIGH
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
2 years, 5 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2@udfcd.org
Time: 349 AM Thu July 28, 2022
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4:00 AM
-
Message 1's will be allowed to expire for all Counties at 4:00 AM as
the threat for heavy rainfall has lowered for the remainder of the
overnight period. Thunderstorms to the N of the District diminished
upon approach leaving some lighter rain showers in their wake.
-
Strong thunderstorms developed over the District hours ago producing
heavy rainfall and hail resulting in excessive runoff roadways and
isolated areas of flash flooding. The thunderstorm activity has long
since diminished.
-
There will be a few light rain showers and possibly a weak
thunderstorm that into early Thursday morning but heavy rainfall is no
longer anticipated. Another active thunderstorm day is expected later
today and with all of the rain yesterday it may not take as much rain
this afternoon to produce excessive runoff as the ground has become
saturated in some areas.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Additional rain showers and
possibly a weak thunderstorm overnight will produce a trace to 0.3" of
rain in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate thunderstorm is able to develop in a
cooling airmass with the potential to produce 0.3-0.8" of rain in
10-30 minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Boulder County
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 400 AM
Arvada
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 400 AM
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 400 AM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 400 AM
DIA
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 400 AM
Denver County
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 400 AM
Adams County
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 400 AM
Douglas County
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 400 AM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 400 AM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 400 AM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 400 AM
Lakewood
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 400 AM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Â
Â
Â
Adams
Current TO 1000 AM THU
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Arapahoe
Current TO 1000 AM THU
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Boulder
Current TO 1000 AM THU
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Broomfield
Current TO 1000 AM THU
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Denver
Current TO 1000 AM THU
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Douglas
Current TO 1000 AM THU
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Jefferson
Current TO 1000 AM THU
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
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Â
Â
Boulder
Current TO 1000 AM THU
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Douglas
Current TO 1000 AM THU
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Jefferson
Current TO 1000 AM THU
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
2 years, 5 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2@udfcd.org
Time: 155 AM Thu July 28, 2022
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGE 1'S HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 4:00 AM
-
Message 1's have been extended until 4:00 AM as additional
thunderstorms lurk N of the District and may impact areas of the
District into the pre-dawn hours. These weak to moderate thunderstorms
may not translate southward into the District and weaken on approach
but the threat remains.
-
The strength of the storms should they survive into the District
will likely be more weak to moderate but even moderate thunderstorms
will have the potential to produce brief heavy rainfall as the
atmosphere is loaded with moisture. The threat for heavy rainfall is
lower than earlier this evening but cannot be ruled out.
-
Showers and thunderstorms will move from N to S to NW to SE at
around 20mph. Storm motions have increased from earlier this evening
and faster storm motions will help to limit point rainfall amounts
from a single storm keeping any heavy rainfall brief.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak
thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.3" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate
thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of
0.3-0.9" in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong thunderstorm will be capable of
producing rainfall rates of 0.5-1.5" in 10-30 minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Boulder County
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 330 AM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 330 AM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 330 AM
Douglas County
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 330 AM
Adams County
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 330 AM
Denver County
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 330 AM
DIA
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 330 AM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 330 AM
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 330 AM
Arvada
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 330 AM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 330 AM
Lakewood
1
Current TO 400 AM
Current TO 330 AM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Â
Â
Â
Adams
Current TO 400 AM THU
0.1" (80%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.9" (15%)
ISSUED
Arapahoe
Current TO 400 AM THU
0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.9" (10%)
ISSUED
Boulder
Current TO 400 AM THU
0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (15%)
ISSUED
Broomfield
Current TO 400 AM THU
0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (15%)
ISSUED
Denver
Current TO 400 AM THU
0.1" (75%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.9" (15%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 400 AM THU
0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.9" (10%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 400 AM THU
0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.9" (15%)
ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Â
Â
Â
Boulder
Current TO 400 AM THU
0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.9" (15%)
ISSUED
Douglas
Current TO 400 AM THU
0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.9" (15%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
Current TO 400 AM THU
0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.9" (15%)
ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
2 years, 5 months