July 2022 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 253 PM Sun July 24, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S HAVE TRANSITIONED TO MESSAGE 2'S FOR BOULDER AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES/MESSAGE 1'S IN EFFECT FOR REMAINDER OF DISTRICT - Message 1's have transitioned to Message 2's (NWS Flood/Flash Flood Watch) at 3:00 PM for Boulder and Douglas Counties and will be valid until 10:00 PM. Message 1's remain in effect for the remainder of the District and will also be valid until 10:00 PM. Message 1's and 2's may be extended until midnight if a flooding threat remains. - Thunderstorms are beginning to fill in over the area at this time with a SW to NE oriented line grazing SE portions of the District over Arapahoe and Douglas Counties. Additional storms lurk west. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected through the remainder of the afternoon and into the early evening. Prime time for moderate to strong thunderstorms will until 9:00 PM. - Thunderstorms will be efficient rainfall producers very capable of producing heavy downpours that may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak thunderstorms will produce 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.8-2.0 in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A large thunderstorm complex or a slower moving large thunderstorm may result in rainfall rates of 1.0-2.5" in 10-30 minutes and up to 3.5" in 45-75 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Douglas County 2 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Boulder County 2 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 1000 PM SUN 0.2" (95%) to 0.8" (70%) to 2.0" (20%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1000 PM SUN 0.2" (100%) to 0.8" (75%) to 2.0" (30%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1000 PM SUN 0.2" (95%) to 0.8" (70%) to 2.0" (20%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1000 PM SUN 0.2" (95%) to 0.8" (70%) to 2.0" (25%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1000 PM SUN 0.2" (95%) to 0.8" (70%) to 2.0" (20%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM SUN 0.2" (100%) to 0.8" (75%) to 2.0" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM SUN 0.2" (95%) to 0.8" (70%) to 2.0" (20%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1000 PM SUN 0.2" (100%) to 0.8" (75%) to 2.0" (25%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM SUN 0.2" (100%) to 0.8" (75%) to 2.0" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM SUN 0.2" (100%) to 0.8" (75%) to 2.0" (25%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1210 PM Sun July 24, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT/BOULDER AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES TRANSITION TO MESSAGE 2'S AT 3:00PM - Message 1's have been issued for the entire District and will be valid until 10:00 PM for all Counties except Boulder and Douglas as they transition to Message 2's. The NWS in Boulder has issued a Flash Flood Watch for the higher terrain of Boulder County above 6,000ft from 3:00 PM until Midnight. The NWS has also issued a Flood Watch for the E 2/3's of Douglas County above 6,000ft from 3:00 PM until Midnight and implies flash flooding, thus Message 2's will supersede the Message 1's for Boulder and Douglas Counties and will go into effect at 3:00 PM. The Message 2's from the MHFD will be valid until 10:00 PM to match the Message 1's end time as the Watches are expected to be cancelled early as the stronger storms are likely well east of the I-25 corridor by that time. Message 1's and 2's may be extended until midnight if a flooding threat remains. Although NWS Flood/Flash Flood Watches are not in effect for the remainder of the District the flood threat is elevated area wide. - Thunderstorms will begin to initiate over the next 1-2 hours over the higher terrain to the W and S of the District. Upper level steering winds from W to E or WSW to ENE at 15-20mph will push the storms onto the plains into the early afternoon. Prime time for moderate to strong thunderstorms will be from 2:00 PM to 9:00 PM. 1-3 rounds of storms are expected through the afternoon into the early evening. Large thunderstorms or briefly anchored thunderstorms will pose the greatest threat for extended periods of heavy rainfall. The first or second round of storms will likely be the strongest of the day. - Moderate to strong thunderstorms that develop today will be efficient rainfall producers as moisture levels are very high for Colorado standards. Even moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms will be very capable of producing heavy downpours that may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak thunderstorms will produce 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.8-2.0 in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A large thunderstorm complex or a slower moving large thunderstorm may result in rainfall rates of 1.0-2.5" in 10-30 minutes and up to 3.5" of heavy rain in 45-75 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 100 PM TO 300 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM Jefferson County 1 100 PM TO 1000 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM Broomfield County 1 100 PM TO 1000 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM Douglas County 1 100 PM TO 300 PM 100 PM TO 900 PM Adams County 1 100 PM TO 1000 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM Denver County 1 100 PM TO 1000 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM DIA 1 100 PM TO 1000 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM Arapahoe County 1 100 PM TO 1000 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM the City of Aurora 1 100 PM TO 1000 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM Arvada 1 100 PM TO 1000 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM Wheat Ridge 1 100 PM TO 1000 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM Lakewood 1 100 PM TO 1000 PM 200 PM TO 900 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.2" (95%) to 0.8" (70%) to 2.0" (20%) HIGH Arapahoe 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.2" (95%) to 0.8" (75%) to 2.0" (30%) HIGH Boulder 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.2" (95%) to 0.8" (70%) to 2.0" (20%) HIGH Broomfield 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.2" (95%) to 0.8" (70%) to 2.0" (25%) HIGH Denver 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.2" (95%) to 0.8" (70%) to 2.0" (20%) HIGH Douglas 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.2" (95%) to 0.8" (75%) to 2.0" (30%) HIGH Jefferson 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.2" (95%) to 0.8" (70%) to 2.0" (20%) HIGH Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1000 PM SUN 0.2" (100%) to 0.8" (75%) to 2.0" (25%) HIGH Douglas Current TO 1000 PM SUN 0.2" (100%) to 0.8" (75%) to 2.0" (30%) HIGH Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM SUN 0.2" (100%) to 0.8" (75%) to 2.0" (25%) HIGH MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1001 AM Sun July 24, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS/EXCESSIVE RUNOFF LIKELY - All the ingredients are in place today for multiple rounds of heavy rainfall producing thunderstorms. The NWS has issued a Flash Flood Watch for Boulder County above 6,000ft as well as a Flood Watch for the E 2/3's of Douglas County above 6,000ft. The Flood Watch will be treated as a Flash Flood Watch as it implies flash flooding resulting in Message 2's being issued for Boulder and Douglas Counties from 3pm to midnight to sync with the NWS. Message 1's will be issued for all Counties prior to 3pm and then the Message 1's will transition to Message 2's for Boulder and Douglas Counties. The Message 2's may be cancelled by the NWS prior to midnight and the current thinking is that this may occur around 9 or 10pm. - Thunderstorms will first initiate over the mountains and foothills W of the District between 11am and noon. Upper level steering winds from W to E at 15-20mph will push the storms eastward onto the plains between noon and 1 or 2pm. Prime time for wetting rain showers and moderate to strong thunderstorms will be from 1pm to 10pm. Multiple rounds (2-3) of storms are expected through the afternoon into the early evening. - Moderate to strong thunderstorms that develop today will be efficient rainfall producers as moisture levels are very high for Colorado standards. Even moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms will be very capable of producing heavy downpours that may lead to excessive runoff and flash flooding. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak thunderstorms will produce 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.8-2.0 in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A large thunderstorm complex or a slower moving large thunderstorm may result in rainfall rates of 1.0-2.5" in 10-30 minutes and up to 3.5" in 45-75 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Drier air will filter in from the NW on Monday pushing the best chances for strong thunderstorms to the S and E of the District. There will still be ample moisture in place at the surface to fuel storms but the coverage will be isolated favoring the Palmer Divide and eastern plains with a lower flood threat overall. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.2" (95%) to 0.8" (70%) to 2.0" (20%) HIGH Arapahoe 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.2" (95%) to 0.8" (70%) to 2.0" (20%) HIGH Boulder 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.2" (95%) to 0.8" (70%) to 2.0" (20%) HIGH Broomfield 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.2" (95%) to 0.8" (70%) to 2.0" (25%) HIGH Denver 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.2" (95%) to 0.8" (70%) to 2.0" (20%) HIGH Douglas 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.2" (95%) to 0.8" (75%) to 2.0" (30%) HIGH Jefferson 100 PM TO 1000 PM 0.2" (95%) to 0.8" (70%) to 2.0" (20%) HIGH Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.2" (100%) to 0.8" (75%) to 2.0" (25%) HIGH Douglas 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.2" (100%) to 0.8" (75%) to 2.0" (25%) HIGH Jefferson 1200 PM TO 1000 PM 0.2" (100%) to 0.8" (75%) to 2.0" (25%) HIGH MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 915 AM Sat July 23, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- RELIEF FROM THE HEAT THIS AFTERNOON AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH - The streak of 90-degree plus days will continue for one more day with highs warming well into the 90's over the plains ahead of shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon which will provide relief from the heat. - Thunderstorms will begin to develop over the mountains and foothills ahead of noon and then spread out onto the plains between noon-1pm. 1-3 rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected between 1-9pm with lingering rain showers possible until about midnight. Moisture will be on the increase as the day progresses resulting in stronger storms capable of producing brief heavy rainfall. More typical storms will produce light to moderate rain and gusty winds. - Upper level steering winds will be from W to E at 15-20mph keeping the majority of the storms moving along and helping to reduce point rainfall amounts from a single storm. Training of thunderstorm cells or a briefly anchored thunderstorm will be the main culprits for extended periods of heavy rainfall resulting in a LOW to MODERATE risk for excessive runoff. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.3" of moisture. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Training of thunderstorm cells or a briefly anchored strong thunderstorm may result in up to 1.5" of heavy rain in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Temperatures will back off into the 80's for highs on Sunday and moisture will increase further leading to an active thunderstorm day. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected in the afternoon, some of which may become strong to severe and will be very capable of producing heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (95%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (15%) LOW Arapahoe 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (95%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (15%) LOW Boulder 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (95%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Broomfield 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (95%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (15%) LOW Denver 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (95%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (15%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (95%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Jefferson 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (95%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (20%) MOD Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.8" (25%) MOD Douglas 1200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.8" (25%) MOD Jefferson 1200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (100%) to 0.3" (75%) to 0.8" (25%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 945 AM Fri July 22, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HOT AND GENERALLY DRY - Temperatures will tack on another degree or two today with afternoon highs topping out in the upper 90's to lower 100's over the plains. The record high for Denver today is 102 degrees. - Much like yesterday moisture is minimal with dew points lowering into the 30's resulting in a build up of clouds this afternoon and isolated high-based thunderstorms favoring the foothills and adjacent plains W of I-25. Storms that develop today will generally produce gusty winds and sprinkles over the plains with better chances for measurable rain in the foothills. Many areas will trend completely dry today. - Best chances for isolated thunderstorm coverage will be between 2-8pm. As sunset approaches any shower and thunderstorm activity will diminish with dry conditions for the later evening and overnight period. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" of rain. A LOOK AHEAD: Remaining HOT on Saturday but moisture will begin to increase leading to a more active thunderstorm day. Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms will be weak to moderate in nature with some storms producing measurable rain and providing some relief from the heat. A cold front will move through overnight Saturday cooling temperatures into the 80's on Sunday and increasing surface moisture leading to stronger thunderstorms with the potential to produce brief heavy rainfall. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 832 AM Thu July 21, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- CONTINUED HOT WITH A DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY - The streak of 90-degree plus days will continue over the plains with a decrease in thunderstorm activity today. Highs this afternoon will be 1-3 degrees warmer than yesterday with highs in the mid 90's to around 100 degrees over the plains. - Moisture will decrease leading to a down-tick in thunderstorm activity today. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms remain possible but with less moisture to work with the storms that develop will be high-based producing mainly light rainfall and gusty winds. Many areas of the District likely end up on the drier side today. - Best chances for thunderstorms today will be over the foothills and Palmer Divide between 2-8pm. After 8pm dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the evening and overnight period. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak to briefly moderate thunderstorms will produce rainfall amounts of a trace to 0.2". WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger thunderstorm is able to develop with the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.5" in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: We will tack on a few degrees to high temperatures on Friday with readings in the 90's to lower 100's over the plains. Much like today the thunderstorm activity will favor the higher terrain with minimal coverage over the plains and many areas likely dry. Better chances for thunderstorms on Saturday with temperatures backing off a few degrees due to increased cloud cover. On Sunday an upper level disturbance and cold front will lower temperatures into the 80's and increase moisture leading to stronger thunderstorms with the potential to produce heavy rainfall. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 720 PM Wed July 20, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8PM - Message 1's will be allowed to expire at 8:00pm as the threat for heavy rainfall has ended for the day. - An outflow boundary from storms that originated to the S of the Palmer Divide early in the afternoon moved northward and intensified thunderstorms over the District producing areas of moderate and brief heavy rainfall. The thunderstorm activity has diminished over the past hour and a more stable air mass is currently in place and thunderstorms are no longer expected. - Isolated light rain showers will continue possible into the evening hours with dry conditions expected well ahead of midnight. Best chances for additional shower activity will be in and near the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Isolated rain showers and possibly a weak thunderstorm will produce a trace to 0.2" of rain. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 800 PM 500 PM TO 700 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 800 PM 500 PM TO 700 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 800 PM 500 PM TO 700 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 800 PM 500 PM TO 700 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 800 PM 500 PM TO 700 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 800 PM 500 PM TO 700 PM DIA 1 Current TO 800 PM 500 PM TO 700 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 800 PM 500 PM TO 700 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 800 PM 500 PM TO 700 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 800 PM 500 PM TO 700 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 800 PM 500 PM TO 700 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 800 PM 500 PM TO 700 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 1000 PM WED Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 1000 PM WED Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Boulder Current TO 1000 PM WED Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 1000 PM WED Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Denver Current TO 1000 PM WED Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1000 PM WED Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM WED Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1000 PM WED Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1000 PM WED Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM WED Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 430 PM Wed July 20, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for the entire District and will be valid until 8:00pm this evening. - An outflow boundary from storms to the S of the District is progressing northward through the District at this time and may act to energize and slow down or briefly anchor storms that are moving into the District from the NW. Stronger thunderstorms will have the potential to produce brief heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff roadways. - Typical thunderstorms will move form WNW to ESE at 15-20mph. 1-2 rounds of thunderstorms is expected through 7 or 8pm. After 8pm the stronger storms are expected to have moved east of the District. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" of moisture. Moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.4-1.0" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving thunderstorm or briefly anchored thunderstorm will have the potential to produce up to 1.4" of heavy rain in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 800 PM 500 PM TO 700 PM DIA 1 Current TO 800 PM 500 PM TO 700 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 800 PM 500 PM TO 700 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 800 PM 500 PM TO 700 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 800 PM 500 PM TO 700 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 800 PM 500 PM TO 700 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 800 PM 500 PM TO 700 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 800 PM 500 PM TO 700 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 800 PM WED 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 800 PM WED 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 800 PM WED 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 800 PM WED 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 800 PM WED 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 800 PM WED 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 800 PM WED 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 800 PM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.4" (65%) to 1.0" (20%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 800 PM WED 0.1" (95%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 800 PM WED 0.1" (100%) to 0.4" (65%) to 1.0" (25%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 938 AM Wed July 20, 2022 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS - Flow aloft will be westerly this morning, becoming northwesterly by the afternoon. Hot temperatures in the mid to upper 90's are expected again today, with dew points in the 40's to around 50 degrees. Forecast soundings indicate CAPE values will be around 500 J/kg today leading to scattered, moderate to briefly strong thunderstorms similar to yesterday. - Storms will begin developing over the foothills around noon and are expected to move east-southeast across the District at 15-20mph. Prime time for storms today is from 1pm to 8pm. Typical thunderstorm activity will produce minimal precipitation between a trace to 0.2" of rainfall, with a low chance for moderate to heavy rainfall of 0.2"-0.6" in 10-30 minutes from moderate to strong thunderstorms. - Skies will gradually clear this evening with mild and dry conditions expected through the overnight and into Thursday. Overnight lows will dip into the low to mid 60's on the plains with low to mid 50's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" of moisture. Moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.6" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Thunderstorms anchoring to the foothills or surface boundary will have the potential to produce moderate to briefly heavy rainfall of 0.4-0.8" in 10-30 minutes and up to 1.2" in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Hot conditions with afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue this week as a heat dome remains parked over the four-corners region. Similar conditions are expected Thursday and Friday as high temperatures remain in the mid to upper 90's, possibly reaching 100 degrees in some areas, with afternoon showers and thunderstorms. This pattern is expected to continue through the weekend. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Arapahoe 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Boulder 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Broomfield 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Denver 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Douglas 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW Jefferson 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.6" (20%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 652 PM Tue July 19, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8PM - Message 1's issued for Adams, Arapahoe, Denver, Douglas and Jefferson Counties will be allowed to expire at 8:00pm. - Briefly strong thunderstorms impacted portions of the District earlier this afternoon producing isolated areas of moderate to briefly heavy rainfall. Shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished currently with possibly a few light rain showers re-developing into the early overnight period. - A thunderstorm complex over western CO, should it survive will result in rain showers and possibly a weak thunderstorm developing after sunset into the early morning hours on Wednesday. Heavy rainfall is not expected from overnight shower activity should it develop. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.3" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate to briefly strong thunderstorm is able to develop overnight with the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.3-0.9" in 10-30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Jefferson County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 400 AM WED Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 400 AM WED Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) NONE Boulder Current TO 400 AM WED Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 400 AM WED Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Denver Current TO 400 AM WED Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Douglas Current TO 400 AM WED Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 400 AM WED Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 400 AM WED Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) NONE Douglas Current TO 400 AM WED Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 400 AM WED Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (15%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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