July 2022 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 817 PM Thu July 14, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- RAIN SHOWWERS CONTINUE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING, HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT INCREASING FRIDAY - Widely scattered rain showers with an occasional rumble of thunder have been persistent over NE areas of the District in Adams County and the DIA area and will continue at least another hour or two into the evening. Another area of shower activity to the west will move into the District and keep chances for light rain into the overnight period for remaining areas. - With temperatures cooling off precipitation will favor light rain showers but a weak thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Heavy rainfall is not expected but a weak thunderstorm will be capable of producing brief moderate rain. Best chances for showers will be through midnight, then generally dry conditions are expected into Friday morning. - Thunderstorm chances will increase on Friday as a plume of monsoon moisture moves overhead. Strong, slow moving thunderstorms on Friday will be capable of producing heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and possibly a weak thunderstorm will produce a trace to 0.3" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate to strong thunderstorm is able to develop in a cooling air mass with the potential to produce 0.3-0.9" of heavy rain in 10-30 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: NWS has issued a Flash Flood Watch for Boulder County above 6,000ft which will be effective from 11:00 AM to 9:00 PM Friday. The MHFD will issue a Message 2 for Boulder County matching the issue time from the NWS. Message 1's will likely be issued for the remainder of the District by 11:00 AM but may not become valid until Noon or 1:00 PM depending upon when storms are expected to fill in. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (90%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (15%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (80%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Boulder Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (80%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (80%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Denver Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (80%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (15%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (80%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (10%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (90%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (15%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (90%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (15%) NONE Douglas Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (90%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (15%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM THU Trace (90%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (15%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 859 AM Thu July 14, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH SCATTERED HIGH-BASED AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS - Northwesterly flow aloft will turn westerly today effectively increasing today's high temperatures well into the 90's on the plains with upper 80's to low 90's along the foothills. Similar conditions to yesterday with a chance for afternoon and early evening scattered high-based rain showers/isolated thunderstorms. Once again there will be a good chance showers stay minimal, however with mid to upper 40's dew points currently, a low chance for moderate to brief heavy rainfall will remain, with increased chances if low-level moisture does not mix out efficiently through the rest of the morning. - Initial storm development along the higher terrain will likely begin between 1 and 3pm with the best chance for rain showers/isolated thunderstorms in the District between 3-8pm this evening. Typical thunderstorms today will produce light to brief moderate rain and breezy winds. Storm motions will be fairly brisk, between 10-15mph from the W to E, however a gust front, or outflow boundary has the potential to produce storms that anchor in place for an extended period of time. Storms are expected to strengthen E of the I-25 corridor possibly becoming strong over the plains, although the better chances for strong storms today should be well east of the District boundaries. - Skies will gradually clear this evening with mild and dry conditions expected through the overnight and into Thursday. Overnight lows will dip into the mid to upper 60's on the plains with mid to upper 50's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" of moisture. Moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.5" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Strong thunderstorms are able to develop with the potential to produce heavy rainfall of 0.4-1.0" in 10-30 minutes and up to 1.5" in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: A little more mid to upper-level moisture tomorrow will increase chances for afternoon and evening rain showers/isolated thunderstorms with a low to moderate chance storms produce heavy rainfall at this time. Temperatures start to increase this weekend with highs flirting with triple digits. A slight chance will remain for a few scattered rain showers/isolated thunderstorms Saturday with dry conditions likely Sunday. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 900 AM Wed July 13, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HOT TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR HIGH-BASED AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS - Northwesterly flow aloft will continue today leading to another chance for afternoon and evening rain showers/isolated thunderstorms. A good chance showers stay minimal, however with upper 40's to low 50's dew points currently, a low chance for moderate to brief heavy rainfall will remain, with increased chances if low-level moisture does not mix out into the upper 30's to low 40's through the morning hours as anticipated. - Initial storm development along the higher terrain will likely begin between noon and 2pm with the best chance for rain showers/isolated thunderstorms in the District between 2-7pm this evening. Typical thunderstorms today will produce light to brief moderate rain and breezy winds. Storm motions will be fairly brisk, between 10-20mph from the WNW to ESE, however a gust front, or outflow boundary has the potential to produce storms that anchor in place for an extended period of time. Storms are expected to strengthen E of the I-25 corridor possibly becoming strong over the plains, although the better chances for strong storms today should be well east of the District boundaries. - Skies will gradually clear this evening with mild and dry conditions expected through the overnight and into Thursday. Overnight lows will dip into the low to mid 60's on the plains with low to mid 50's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" of moisture. Moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.5" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Strong thunderstorms are able to develop with the potential to produce heavy rainfall of 0.4-1.0" in 10-30 minutes and up to 1.5" in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: An uptick in mid to upper-level moisture tomorrow will increase chances of widespread rain showers/thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening. A slight chance for storms to become severe, mainly from gusty winds and possibly large hail. Afternoon and evening storm chances continue Friday, again with a slight chance for severe weather, mainly towards the eastern plains at this time. Mid to upper-level moisture decreases into the weekend, however a chance will remain for afternoon rain showers/isolated thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Arapahoe 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Broomfield 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Denver 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 700 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 754 PM Tue July 12, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE - Message 1's will be allowed to expire at 9:00 PM. - Colliding outflow boundaries resulted in brief thunderstorm activity east of I-25 over portions of Adams, Arapahoe and Denver Counties but these storms were pulse type in nature and did into sustain themselves for very long. The outflow boundary from the N was the dominant boundary and it has since cleared the District and no new thunderstorm development is expected for the remainder of the evening and overnight period. - Drier air will move into the District on Wednesday lowering thunderstorm chances across the board and virtually eliminating the heavy rainfall threat. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No meaningful precipitation is expected for the remainder of the evening and overnight period. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 900 PM 615 PM TO 800 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 900 PM 615 PM TO 800 PM DIA 1 Current TO 900 PM 615 PM TO 800 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 900 PM 615 PM TO 800 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 900 PM 615 PM TO 800 PM MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 556 PM Tue July 12, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN AREAS OF THE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for Adams, Arapahoe and Denver Counties and will be valid until 9:00 PM. - Colliding outflow boundaries has resulted in thunderstorm activity east of I-25 over portions of Adams, Arapahoe and Denver Counties. These storms are currently strengthening and may produce heavy rainfall as well as large hail and gusty winds. - Thunderstorms may remain nearly stationary before being carried away by upper level winds. Otherwise storms will generally move from NW to SE at around 20mph. Best chances for strong to severe thunderstorms will be over the next couple hours. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.4-1.0" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving strong thunderstorm or briefly anchored thunderstorm may result in up to 1.6" of heavy rainfall in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 900 PM 615 PM TO 800 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 900 PM 615 PM TO 800 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 900 PM 615 PM TO 800 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 900 PM 615 PM TO 800 PM DIA 1 Current TO 900 PM 615 PM TO 800 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 900 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.4" (75%) to 1.0" (40%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 900 PM TUE 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.0" (30%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 900 PM TUE 0.1" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) to 1.0" (10%) LOW Broomfield Current TO 900 PM TUE 0.1" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) to 1.0" (10%) LOW Denver Current TO 900 PM TUE 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.0" (30%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM TUE 0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD Jefferson Current TO 900 PM TUE 0.1" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) to 1.0" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 900 PM TUE 0.1" (40%) to 0.4" (20%) to 1.0" (5%) LOW Douglas Current TO 900 PM TUE 0.1" (40%) to 0.4" (20%) to 1.0" (5%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 900 PM TUE 0.1" (40%) to 0.4" (20%) to 1.0" (5%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 946 AM Tue July 12, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARMING BACK UP WITH WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS - After a nice break from the heat yesterday, temperatures will be climbing back into the lower 90's over the plains with 70's and 80's in the Front Range foothills which is near normal for this time of year. Surface moisture lingers behind the front that moved through early yesterday and with good daytime heating widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop. - Thunderstorms will first initiate over the higher terrain to the W between noon-2pm. Upper level steering winds from NW to SE will push the storms onto the plains after 2pm. Prime time for thunderstorm activity is from 2-8pm. Typical thunderstorms today will produce light to brief moderate rain and breezy winds. Generally one round of storms is expected for the plains but not everyone will experience a meaningful storm today. - Storms are expected to strengthen E of the I-25 corridor possibly becoming strong over the plains but the better chances for strong storms today will be E of the District boundaries. If stronger storms are able to develop further W than expected then brief heavy rainfall may occur. The chances for stronger storms to develop appears low at this time. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" of moisture. Moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.6" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Strong thunderstorms are able to develop with the potential to produce heavy rainfall of 0.4-1.0" in 10-30 minutes and up to 1.5" in 45-50 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: We will lose some moisture on Wednesday and temperatures will continue their ascent with highs over the plains in the mid 90's to around 100 degrees. With less available moisture thunderstorm activity will be high-based and isolated producing minimal rain and gusty winds. Better chances for thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday with temperatures backing off a few degrees. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.3" (40%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (80%) to 0.3" (15%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (90%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (90%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (90%) to 0.3" (50%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 947 AM Mon July 11, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- TEMPERATURES TOO COOL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITHIN THE DISTRICT - A cold front moved through this morning increasing clouds and turning winds to the N and even producing a little mist S of I-70 over the plains currently with the upslope flow. A much cooler air mass is in place today and will provide a break from the heat. - Highs this afternoon will only warm into the low to mid 80's over the plains with 70's in the Front Range foothills. Breezy N winds behind the front are already in the process of weakening and clouds will slowly decrease into the afternoon becoming partly cloudy. Temperatures would need to reach around 90 to initiate convection over the plains and with the cool temperatures forecast the air mass is expected to remain stable over the plains with generally dry conditions over the District. - Thunderstorm activity will develop to the S and SW of the District over the higher foothills where there is more sunshine currently and the atmosphere will be more unstable. As these storms are pushed to the E by upper level winds towards the District they are expected to dissipate on approach. A storm or two may survive long enough to produce an isolated rain shower or weak thunderstorm favoring areas S of I-70 and W of I-25. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Light rain showers or mist this morning will generally produce just a trace (TR) of precipitation. Rain showers and possibly a weakening thunderstorm will produce a trace to 0.2" of rain in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Temperatures warm further than expected with thunderstorms becoming more likely over the plains with the potential to produce brief heavy rainfall. A LOOK AHEAD: Temperatures will climb into the upper 80's to lower 90's on Tuesday and with more heating thunderstorms will become likely. Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected to initiate by 1/2pm and continue possible through 8/9pm. Stronger storms will have the potential to produce brief heavy rainfall. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 800 PM MON Trace (15%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Arapahoe Current TO 800 PM MON Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Boulder Current TO 800 PM MON Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Broomfield Current TO 800 PM MON Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Denver Current TO 800 PM MON Trace (20%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Douglas Current TO 800 PM MON Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Jefferson Current TO 800 PM MON Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (15%) NONE Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (25%) NONE Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (25%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 917 AM Sun July 10, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HOT... ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT FOR SOME - Temperatures will continue to be hot over the District today with temperatures climbing into the mid 90's to around 100 over the plains. Isolated areas may reach or exceed 100 degrees! Record high for today is 102 and will likely not be reached as there will be more clouds this afternoon. - There is a little more moisture to work with in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere today and will result in isolated afternoon thunderstorms. The majority of the storms that develop today will be high-based producing gusty winds and minimal rainfall. Surface wind convergence may be able to energize a storm or two over the plains with a moderate to briefly strong thunderstorm possible but chances are quite low and will be the worst case scenario for today resulting in a LOW Message potential. - Thunderstorms will develop between 1-2pm over the higher terrain with best chances on the plains from 2-9pm. Typical storms will move from SW to NE at around 20mph. Stronger storms may move more erratically or remain nearly stationary on surface wind convergence boundaries. Shower and storm activity will be of the hit-or-miss variety and not everyone will experience a storm but the areas that do will receive a little relief from the heat this afternoon. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.1" of rain. Moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.1-0.3" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes and up to 1.0" in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: A cold front will move through ahead of daybreak tomorrow and result in much cooler temperatures with highs only in the 80's over the plains with 70's in the Front Range foothills. Moisture will increase behind the front but the cooler temperatures over the plains may help to retard thunderstorm development over the plains with scattered coverage over the foothills and Palmer Divide. If strong thunderstorms are able to develop Monday afternoon heavy rainfall will likely accompany the storms. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (20%) LOW Arapahoe 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (20%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (80%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (20%) LOW Broomfield 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (20%) LOW Denver 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (75%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (20%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (80%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (20%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 900 PM Trace (80%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (20%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (90%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE Douglas 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (90%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE Jefferson 100 PM TO 900 PM Trace (90%) to 0.1" (60%) to 0.3" (20%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 743 PM Sat July 9, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE RESULTED IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT - A storm that formed in Elbert County has produced a gust front that has moved into the district at this time. - A few scattered thunderstorms have developed producing moderate to brief heavy rainfall. These storms should remain isolated and east of I-25. - Additional storms could be possible off additional outflow boundaries if they move west and into Denver. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers/isoalted thunderstorms can produce TR-0.20" in 10-30 minutes. A moderate to strong thunderstorm can produce 0.20-0.60" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A strong anchored storm has the potential to produce 0.6-1.2" in 30-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Hot and dry weather expected tomorrow morning with another slight chance for scattered afternoon/eve rain showers and thunderstorms. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 1000 PM SAT Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Arapahoe Current TO 1000 PM SAT Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Boulder Current TO 1000 PM SAT Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Broomfield Current TO 1000 PM SAT Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Denver Current TO 1000 PM SAT Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Douglas Current TO 1000 PM SAT Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.6" (15%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM SAT Trace (30%) to 0.2" (15%) to 0.6" (10%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1000 PM SAT Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas Current TO 1000 PM SAT Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM SAT Trace (40%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 847 AM Sat July 9, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- RECORD BREAKING HEAT AND GENERALLY DRY FOR THE PLAINS/ISOLATED STORMS FOOTHILLS - Temperatures will reach or exceed record levels for the date as high pressure dominates the weather pattern today. Temperatures will reach the mid 90's to lower 100's over the plains with 80's in the Front Range foothills. Normal high for Denver today is 90 degrees. The record high is 98 last set in 2021 and is expected to be broken during the early afternoon. - There will be a few fair weather clouds that develop this afternoon over the plains with possibly an isolated thunderstorm over the foothills and Palmer Divide. The far S and W Denver area suburbs maybe grazed by one of these storms which may provide some relief from the heat. The most likely outcome is breezy winds as any precipitation evaporates before reaching the surface outside the foothills. - Isolated thunderstorms over the foothills and Palmer Divide will initiate by mid afternoon with best chances from 3-8pm. Most areas within the District will be dry today with any rainfall from thunderstorms being minimal. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak to briefly moderate thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" of rain. A LOOK AHEAD: Continued hot on Sunday with highs in the mid 90's to around 100 degrees over the plains. There will be a better chance for isolated thunderstorms District wide but the storms that develop will produce minimal rain and gusty winds. Moisture increases Monday and Tuesday with scattered afternoon thunderstorms some of which may be capable of producing brief heavy rainfall. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Arapahoe 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Boulder 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (20%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Broomfield 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Denver 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (15%) to 0.1" (5%) NONE Douglas 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (40%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Jefferson 400 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (10%) NONE Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (30%) to 0.1" (15%) to 0.2" (5%) NONE Douglas 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE Jefferson 300 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (10%) NONE MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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