July 2022 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 309 PM Tue July 19, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for portions of the District along and S of I-70 including Arapahoe, Denver, Douglas and Jefferson Counties and will be valid until 8:00pm. - A strong thunderstorm has developed over Jefferson County and is expected to move eastward through the District with the potential for heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff. Upper level steering winds will move storms from W to E at around 15-20mph. - Storms are expected to move from W to E and generally remain along and S of I-70 with weaker storms northward. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.4-1.0" of heavy rain in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Thunderstorms anchoring to the foothills or slower moving thunderstorms may result in up to 1.6" in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Jefferson County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 800 PM Current TO 700 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (50%) to 0.4" (20%) to 1.0" (10%) MOD Arapahoe Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.0" (30%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1.0" (10%) MOD Broomfield Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1.0" (10%) MOD Denver Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.0" (30%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (95%) to 0.4" (65%) to 1.0" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (95%) to 0.4" (65%) to 1.0" (30%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1.0" (10%) MOD Douglas Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.4" (75%) to 1.0" (40%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.1" (100%) to 0.4" (75%) to 1.0" (40%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 858 AM Tue July 19, 2022 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS - Flow aloft will be westerly this morning, becoming northwesterly by the afternoon. Very hot temperatures in the mid to upper 90's are expected again today, with dew points in the upper 40's to low 50's. These conditions will favor isolated showers across the District. Thunderstorm activity will produce minimal precipitation, with a very low chance for moderate to heavy rainfall. - Storms will begin developing over the foothills around noon and are expected to move east across the District. Prime time for storms today is from 12pm to 8pm. Typical thunderstorms will produce light to briefly moderate rainfall, mostly favoring areas in and around the foothills. - Skies will gradually clear this evening with mild and dry conditions expected through the overnight and into Wednesday. Overnight lows will dip into the low to mid 60's on the plains with low to mid 50's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" of moisture. Moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.5" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Thunderstorms anchoring to the foothills or outflow boundary will have the potential to produce moderate to briefly heavy rainfall of 0.4-0.8" in 10-30 minutes and up to 1.5" in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Hot conditions with afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue this week as a heat dome remains parked over the four-corners region. Similar conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday as high temperatures remain in the 90's with a round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. This pattern is expected to continue through the remainder of this week and into the weekend. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Arapahoe 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Boulder 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Broomfield 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Denver 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Douglas 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Jefferson 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Douglas 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Jefferson 1200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (60%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 940 AM Mon July 18, 2022 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HOT TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS - Flow aloft will be westerly throughout the day, creating conditions for isolated showers across the District. Very hot, record-breaking conditions are expected today. Temperatures will climb to triple digits across much of the District with dew points in the mid to upper 40's. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will produce minimal precipitation, with a very low chance for moderate to heavy rainfall. - Storms will begin developing over the foothills before 2pm and are expected to move east-northeast across the District. Prime time for storms today is from 2pm to 8pm. Typical thunderstorms will produce light to briefly moderate rainfall, mostly favoring areas in and around the foothills. - Skies will gradually clear this evening with mild and dry conditions expected through the overnight and into Thursday. Overnight lows will dip into the low to mid 60's on the plains with low to mid 50's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" of moisture. Moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.5" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Anchoring thunderstorms will have the potential to produce moderate to briefly heavy rainfall of 0.4-0.8" in 10-30 minutes and up to 1.5" in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Hot conditions with afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue this week as a heat dome remains parked over the four-corners region. Similar conditions are expected Tuesday and Wednesday as high temperatures remain in the 90's with isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. This pattern is expected to continue through the remainder of this week and into the weekend. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 800 PM Trace (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 915 AM Sun July 17, 2022 Forecaster: Laura Smith ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- HOT TEMPERATURES WITH DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS - A heat dome remains parked over the four-corners region, creating very hot and dry conditions across the District today. - Highs will be in the mid to upper 90's with dew points in the upper teens to low 20's. The foothills will be a bit cooler as highs reach the low 80's. Skies will be clear and sunny. - Overnight lows will drop to around 70 degrees with dew points in the upper 40's. Skies will remain clear through tomorrow morning. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No precipitation is expected today or tonight. A LOOK AHEAD: Strong ridging and very hot conditions will continue across the Desert Southwest through the remainder of this week and into the weekend. The record high of 99 degrees for June 18th was set in 2020 and will likely be broken tomorrow as temperatures soar into the upper 90's to low 100's followed by brief afternoon showers and thunderstorms. On Tuesday, high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90's with another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 234 PM Sat July 16, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT VALID UNTIL 9:00 PM - Message 1's have been issued and will be valid until 9:00pm this evening. - A few weak rain showers/isolated thunderstorms have impacted the District and will continue to move eastward at this time. A stronger line of storms to the W/NW is currently moving towards the District and will have the best chance at producing moderate to heavy rainfall as it moves through the District. Slow moving or stationary thunderstorm that develop along any gust fronts may move very slowly or remain stationary having the potential for heavy rainfall. Strong thunderstorms may also contain gusty winds, hail and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. - Prime time for storms in the District will be between 3-8pm with one or two rounds of thunderstorms possible. Upper-level winds should carry most storms from W to E between 10-15mph, however, gust fronts could anchor storms or cause erratic motions at times. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.4" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.4-1.0" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A nearly stationary strong thunderstorm may result in up to 1.8" of rain in 60-90 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM DIA 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 900 PM SAT 0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (15%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 900 PM SAT 0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (15%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 900 PM SAT 0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (15%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 900 PM SAT 0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (15%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 900 PM SAT 0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (15%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM SAT 0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 PM SAT 0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (15%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 900 PM SAT 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM SAT 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 PM SAT 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 840 AM Sat July 16, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS - SW flow aloft will turn more W/NW today effectively keeping high temperatures in the low to mid 90's this afternoon. Fairly similar conditions to yesterday with a chance for afternoon and early evening scattered rain showers/isolated thunderstorms. There will be a good chance showers stay minimal, however with elevated dew points currently in the upper 50's to around 60 degrees, a moderate chance for brief heavy rainfall will remain, with increased chances if low-level moisture does not mix out efficiently through the rest of the morning. - Initial storm development along the higher terrain will likely begin between 12 and 2pm with the best chance for rain showers/isolated thunderstorms in the District between 2-8pm this evening. Typical thunderstorms today will produce light to brief moderate rain and gusty winds. Storm motions will move between 10-15mph from the WNW to ESE, however a gust front, or outflow boundary has the potential to produce storms that anchor in place for an extended period of time. Storms are expected to strengthen E of the I-25 corridor possibly becoming strong over the plains, although the better chances for strong storms today should remain east of the District boundaries. - Skies will gradually clear this evening with mild and dry conditions expected through the overnight and into Sunday. Overnight lows will dip into the mid to upper 60's on the plains with low to mid 60's along the foothills. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.2" of moisture. Moderate thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.2-0.4" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: Strong thunderstorms are able to develop, or training of moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall of 0.4-1.0" in 10-30 minutes and up to 1.5" in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: The heat returns Sunday as high-pressure starts to build with highs flirting with 100 degrees under mostly sunny skies. Monday will stay hot, once again with highs reaching triple digits. A slight chance Monday afternoon for a round of high-based rain showers/isolated thunderstorms, although precipitation should remain minimal at this time. Similar conditions Tuesday, although slightly cooler with highs in the 90's with another chance for afternoon high-based rain showers/isolated thunderstorms. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD Arapahoe 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD Broomfield 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD Denver 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.2" (50%) to 0.4" (25%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.2" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD Douglas 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.2" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD Jefferson 200 PM TO 800 PM 0.2" (60%) to 0.4" (30%) to 1.0" (15%) MOD MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 759 PM Fri July 15, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S & 2'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9PM - Message 1's & 2's will be allowed to expire as the threat for heavy rain has come to and end. - A few linger light rain showers remain, mainly to the north and east of the District at this time. These showers will linger over the next hour or so before tapering off. A slight chance for a few late evening rain showers between 10pm-2am, with a few isolated thunderstorms possible, favoring northern portions of the District. - Skies will gradually clear through the overnight with mild conditions expected by daybreak tomorrow. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will produce a TR-0.10" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate to strong thunderstorm is capable of producing 0.1-0.4" in 10-30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM DIA 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 900 PM Current TO 800 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 300 AM SAT Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 300 AM SAT Trace (30%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.4" (5%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 300 AM SAT Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 300 AM SAT Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 300 AM SAT Trace (30%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.4" (5%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 300 AM SAT Trace (30%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.4" (5%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 300 AM SAT Trace (30%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.4" (5%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 300 AM SAT Trace (40%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.4" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 300 AM SAT Trace (30%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.4" (5%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 300 AM SAT Trace (30%) to 0.1" (10%) to 0.4" (5%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 438 PM Fri July 15, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGES CONTINUE VALID UNTIL 9:00 PM - The Message 2 for Boulder County will remain in effect until 9:00 PM. Message 1's for all other Counties within the District will also remain valid until 9:00 PM. - Thunderstorms have initiated in and near the District with prime time through 8:00 PM. Typical storms are producing light to briefly moderate rain as the District has yet to experience a stronger storm. If the trend holds storms will continue to be weak to moderate in nature for most areas, however a strong thunderstorm cannot be ruled out which will be capable of producing heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff. - Upper level steering winds are from SW to NE at around 15mph. One round of storms E of I-25 will clear the District in the next 60-90 minutes with another wave approaching from the SW keeping chances for storms into the evening. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: More typical weak to moderate thunderstorms will produce rainfall rates of 0.1-0.5" in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms will will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.5-1.5" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A large thunderstorm complex or a nearly stationary strong thunderstorm cell may result in up to 2.5" of rain in 60-90 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME the City of Aurora 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 800 PM Arapahoe County 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 800 PM DIA 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 800 PM Denver County 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 800 PM Adams County 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 800 PM Douglas County 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 800 PM Broomfield County 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 800 PM Jefferson County 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 800 PM Boulder County 2 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 800 PM Arvada 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 800 PM Wheat Ridge 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 800 PM Lakewood 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 800 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 900 PM FRI 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (10%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 900 PM FRI 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (10%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 900 PM FRI 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (5%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 900 PM FRI 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (5%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 900 PM FRI 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (5%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM FRI 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 PM FRI 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (10%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 900 PM FRI 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 900 PM FRI 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 900 PM FRI 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (10%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 1120 AM Fri July 15, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 2 ISSUED FOR BOULDER COUNTY/MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER COUNTIES - The National Weather Service in Boulder has issued a Flash Flood Watch for the higher terrain of Boulder County above 6,000ft from 11am until 9pm this evening. The Flash Flood Watch is primarily issued for the Calwood burn area of Boulder County. Although the flood threat is lower outside the Calwood burn area the Message 2 will cover areas within the MHFD as a portion of the District is included in the NWS zone. Message 1's will go into effect at noon for all other Counties within the District. - Thunderstorms will begin to initiate over the higher terrain between noon and 2pm. Upper level steering winds from SW to NE at 10-15mph will push the storm activity onto the plains during the early afternoon. Prime time for thunderstorms is between 1-8pm. Relatively slow storm motions and ample moisture to fuel thunderstorms will result in stronger storms capable of producing heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. - The main culprit for extended periods of heavy rainfall today will be storms that are able to anchor or move more slowly. Training of thunderstorm cells is less likely but cannot be ruled out over the foothills. East of I-25 stronger storms may become severe with large hail and gusty winds being the primary threats as well as heavy rainfall. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.5-1.5" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A large thunderstorm complex or a nearly stationary strong thunderstorm cell may result in up to 2.5" of rain in 60-90 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 2 1100 AM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 800 PM Jefferson County 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 800 PM Broomfield County 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 800 PM Douglas County 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 800 PM Adams County 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 800 PM Denver County 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 800 PM DIA 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 800 PM Arapahoe County 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 800 PM the City of Aurora 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 200 PM TO 800 PM Arvada 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 800 PM Wheat Ridge 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 800 PM Lakewood 1 1200 PM TO 900 PM 100 PM TO 800 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED Arapahoe 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (25%) ISSUED Broomfield 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Denver 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Boulder 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Douglas 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (95%) to 0.5" (65%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Douglas 1200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (95%) to 0.5" (65%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson 1200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (95%) to 0.5" (65%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 922 AM Fri July 15, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING - Temperatures will back off today but remain on the warm side with highs reaching the low to mid 90's over the plains ahead of cloud cover and storm activity. Subtropical monsoon moisture will stream overhead and with ample surface moisture there will be a good chance for afternoon and early evening rain showers and thunderstorms. Some storms may become strong with the potential to produce heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding. - Initial storm development along the higher terrain will likely begin by around noon with the best chance for rain showers/thunderstorms over the plains between 1-9pm. Storm motions will be from W to E between 10-15mph, however a gust front, or outflow boundary has the potential to initiate storms that anchor in place for an extended period of time or move more slowly. Storms are expected to strengthen along and E of the I-25 corridor possibly becoming severe over the plains. - NWS Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Boulder County above 6,000ft from 11:00 AM to 9:00 PM to account for the Calwood Burn area just north of the District. Locations outside of recent burn areas, including the Four Mile burn area the flash flood threat will be lower. The MHFD will issue a Message 2 Boulder County to sync with the NWS time frame. Message 1's will be issued for the remaining Counties but will become valid at noon or 1pm just ahead of storm development. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.5" of moisture in 30-60 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.5-1.5" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A large thunderstorm complex or a nearly stationary strong thunderstorm may result in up to 2.5" of rain in 45-75 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Cooler tomorrow with a continued chance for afternoon and early evening rain showers/isolated thunderstorms. The upper-level pattern will shift from SW to NW which will add more variability for storm development, however a low threat for moderate to brief heavy rain will likely remain. Sunday starts to warm up significantly with highs reaching around 100 degrees along with generally dry conditions. Similar conditions Monday with hot temperatures and a very slight chance for scattered high-based afternoon/eve rain showers/isolated thunderstorms. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (20%) HIGH Arapahoe 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (20%) HIGH Broomfield 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (20%) HIGH Denver 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (20%) HIGH Boulder 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (20%) HIGH Douglas 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (20%) HIGH Jefferson 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (20%) HIGH Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 1200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (95%) to 0.5" (65%) to 1.5" (20%) HIGH Douglas 1200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (95%) to 0.5" (65%) to 1.5" (20%) HIGH Jefferson 1200 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (95%) to 0.5" (65%) to 1.5" (20%) HIGH MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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hpo-ims July 2022