Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 906 AM Wed July 6, 2022
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING
-
A substantial increase in moisture will result in the potential for
heavy rainfall producing thunderstorms today which may lead to
excessive runoff and possibly flash flooding within the District.
Surface dew points are unusually high in the 60's this morning and are
only expected to decrease into the mid and upper 50's this afternoon
with precipitable water values well over 1.0".
-
Daytime heating in tandem with high moisture values will begin to
produce showers and thunderstorms ahead of noon over the foothills.
The strength of the storms over the plains will hinge upon daytime
heating and more sun this morning will likely result in stronger
storms this afternoon. The storms that develop will be slow moving
from SW to NE at 10-15mph but stronger storms may anchor briefly or
move erratically along surface boundaries.
-
Weak to moderate thunderstorms will be capable of producing brief
heavy rainfall today with strong thunderstorms very capable of
producing extended periods of heavy rainfall as well as gusty winds
and hail. Prime time for thunderstorm activity is from 1-9pm. More
numerous showers and thunderstorms will favor the foothills and Palmer
Divide but the stronger storms will most likely favor the plains.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers will produce a
trace to 0.2" in 10-30 minutes. Weak thunderstorms will produce
rainfall rates of 0.2-0.6" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong
thunderstorms will have the potential to produce 0.6-1.8" in 10-30
minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A large thunderstorm complex or a slow moving
large thunderstorm may result in up to 3.0" of rain in 45-60 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Moisture will begin to decrease tomorrow resulting in
the heavy rainfall threat lowering. There will still be ample moisture
to fuel storms with isolated to widely scattered coverage in the
afternoon/early evening. Temperatures will be near seasonal levels in
the upper 80's to around 90 for highs.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Â
Â
Â
Adams
100 PM TO 900 PM
0.2" (80%) to 0.8" (40%) to 1.6" (20%)
HIGH
Arapahoe
100 PM TO 900 PM
0.2" (80%) to 0.8" (40%) to 1.6" (20%)
HIGH
Boulder
100 PM TO 900 PM
0.2" (80%) to 0.8" (40%) to 1.6" (20%)
HIGH
Broomfield
100 PM TO 900 PM
0.2" (80%) to 0.8" (40%) to 1.6" (20%)
HIGH
Denver
100 PM TO 900 PM
0.2" (80%) to 0.8" (40%) to 1.6" (20%)
HIGH
Douglas
100 PM TO 900 PM
0.2" (80%) to 0.8" (40%) to 1.6" (20%)
HIGH
Jefferson
100 PM TO 900 PM
0.2" (80%) to 0.8" (40%) to 1.6" (20%)
HIGH
Foothills above 6500ft
Â
Â
Â
Boulder
1200 PM TO 900 PM
0.2" (90%) to 0.8" (50%) to 1.6" (15%)
HIGH
Douglas
1200 PM TO 900 PM
0.2" (90%) to 0.8" (50%) to 1.6" (15%)
HIGH
Jefferson
1200 PM TO 900 PM
0.2" (90%) to 0.8" (50%) to 1.6" (15%)
HIGH
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
2 years, 5 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 947 AM Tue July 5, 2022
Forecaster: Laura Smith
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH AFTERNOON TO EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
-
The summer monsoon continues to advect Pacific moisture into the
state, creating conditions for slow-moving afternoon to evening
showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will reach the upper 80's
to low 90's, with dew points in the mid to upper 40's.
-
Convection will begin across the foothills around noon, moving
northeast at 10-15 mph. The highest QPF amounts are anticipated across
the foothills and Palmer Divide, with isolated to scattered
thunderstorms expected along the Front Range Urban Corridor. Stronger
storms descending the foothills will have the potential to produce
brief moderate to heavy rain, hail, and gusty outflow boundaries.
-
Storms will propagate out of the District by 10PM, with a slight
chance for an isolated shower through 2AM.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers and weak
thunderstorms will produce rainfall rates of TR-0.2". Moderate to
strong thunderstorms may produce rainfall rates of 0.1"-0.5" in 10 to
30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Anchoring or slow-moving strong storms may
produce rainfall rates of 0.4"-1.0" in 10-30 minutes, and up to 1.6"
in 45-75 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Tomorrow will have a high potential for severe storms as
a frontal boundary approaches from the north. High temperatures will
reach the upper 80's with dew points in the mid to upper 50's,
creating favorable conditions for heavy rainfall-producing
thunderstorms. Excessive runoff and flooding is possible across the
District.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Â
Â
Â
Adams
100 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Arapahoe
100 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Boulder
100 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Broomfield
100 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Denver
100 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Douglas
100 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Jefferson
100 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Â
Â
Â
Boulder
1200 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Douglas
1200 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Jefferson
1200 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (90%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
2 years, 5 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 826 AM Mon July 4, 2022
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
HOT TODAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON & EVE RAIN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
-
Temperatures will increase today with highs in the low to mid 90's
on the plains with mid to upper 80's along the foothills. Not much
change in the overall weather pattern today with another chance for
afternoon and evening rain showers/isolated thunderstorms. Currently
temperatures are already in the low to mid 70's across the plains.
Currently dew points remain slightly elevated with mid 40's to low
50's, however, these dew points should mix out through the morning
into the low to mid 40's. There is a chance the excess surface
moisture remain in place through this morning and into the afternoon,
therefor, a low chance will remain for Message 1 potential, favoring
areas along the foothills at this time.
-
Similar to yesterday, rain showers/isolated thunderstorms are
expected to develop along the higher terrain between 12-2pm with rain
showers/isolated thunderstorms possible in the District between 1-9pm.
Storm motions will generally be west to east, between 10-20mph with
peak storm chances between 4-8pm. A round or two of storms will be
possible today, with the first round bringing the best chance for
moderate to brief heavy rainfall at this time, with additional storm
development possible from outflow boundaries, especially if stronger
storms are able to develop along the Wyoming Ridge and the Palmer
Divide.
-
Elevated surface moisture and good daytime heating will be in place
for a slight chance of moderate to brief heavy rainfall today
resulting in a low risk for Message issuance, however if low-level
moisture mixes out before adequate heating takes place it will help
keep the moderate to heavy rainfall at bay. Overnight lows excepted to
drop into the low to mid 60's with mild conditions expected into
daybreak Tuesday.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and weak
thunderstorms will produce TR-0.2" of rain in 10-30 minutes. Moderate
to briefly strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce
rainfall rates of 0.2-0.5" in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Strong, slower moving thunderstorms if able to
develop will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall rates of
0.5-1.0" in 10-30 minutes and up to 2.0" in 45-75 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Similar conditions remain through the week with high
temperatures holding around 90 degrees through Friday. A chance for
afternoon and evening rain showers isolated thunderstorms Tuesday
through Friday as well. Tomorrow's rain showers/isolated thunderstorms
will be similar to today with a better chance of widespread rain
showers/thunderstorms on Wednesday.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Â
Â
Â
Adams
100 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Arapahoe
100 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Boulder
100 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Broomfield
100 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Denver
100 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Douglas
100 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Jefferson
100 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Â
Â
Â
Boulder
1200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (25%)
LOW
Douglas
1200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (25%)
LOW
Jefferson
1200 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (25%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
2 years, 5 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 854 PM Sun July 3, 2022
Forecaster: Laura Smith
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
-
Message 1's will be allowed to expire at 9:30 PM as the threat for
heavy rainfall has ended for the day.
-
The final wave of showers is currently propagating east of the
District and generally dry conditions are expected for the remainder
of the evening and overnight period.
-
Overnight lows will dip into the upper 50's and 60's over the plains
with some upper 40's in the higher foothills.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: No meaningful precipitation is
expected overnight and into tomorrow morning.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Boulder County
1
Current TO 930 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 930 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 930 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Douglas County
1
Current TO 930 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Adams County
1
Current TO 930 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Denver County
1
Current TO 930 PM
Current TO 900 PM
DIA
1
Current TO 930 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 930 PM
Current TO 900 PM
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 930 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Arvada
1
Current TO 930 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 930 PM
Current TO 900 PM
Lakewood
1
Current TO 930 PM
Current TO 900 PM
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
2 years, 5 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 718 PM Sun July 3, 2022
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGES CONTINUE VALIDUNTIL 9:30 PM
-
Message 1's will continue valid until 9:30 PM. The gust
front/outflow boundary from storms over Larimer and Weld Counties has
moved southward through the District but did not initiate strong
thunderstorms within District boundaries. The strongest storms
remained just N of the District over Boulder County.
-
As the outflow boundary from northern CO storms moved southward
through the District it helped to keep shower activity active but did
not generate strong storms. Now that this boundary has passed through
Douglas County the threat for heavy rainfall is quickly diminishing as
temperatures are cooling and the triggering mechanism for stronger
storms is now well south of the area.
-
Additional light rain showers and weak thunderstorms will continue
possible over the next 1-2 hours. The threat for moderate to strong
thunderstorms with the potential to produce heavy rainfall is lowering
rapidly now that temperatures are backing off but an isolated moderate
to strong thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers will produce a
trace to 0.1" of rain. Weak to moderate thunderstorms will produce
0.1-0.3" in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms will have the
potential to produce 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: An anchored strong thunderstorm or a slower
moving large thunderstorm may result in up to 1.5" of rain in 60-90
minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Boulder County
1
Current TO 930 PM
Current TO 830 PM
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 930 PM
Current TO 830 PM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 930 PM
Current TO 830 PM
Douglas County
1
Current TO 930 PM
Current TO 830 PM
Adams County
1
Current TO 930 PM
Current TO 830 PM
Denver County
1
Current TO 930 PM
Current TO 830 PM
DIA
1
Current TO 930 PM
Current TO 830 PM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 930 PM
Current TO 830 PM
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 930 PM
Current TO 830 PM
Arvada
1
Current TO 930 PM
Current TO 830 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 930 PM
Current TO 830 PM
Lakewood
1
Current TO 930 PM
Current TO 830 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Â
Â
Â
Adams
Current TO 930 PM SUN
Trace (75%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (5%)
LOW
Arapahoe
Current TO 930 PM SUN
Trace (70%) to 0.3" (25%) to 0.8" (5%)
LOW
Boulder
Current TO 930 PM SUN
Trace (60%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.8" (5%)
LOW
Broomfield
Current TO 930 PM SUN
Trace (60%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.8" (5%)
LOW
Denver
Current TO 930 PM SUN
Trace (60%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.8" (5%)
LOW
Douglas
Current TO 930 PM SUN
Trace (75%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (5%)
LOW
Jefferson
Current TO 930 PM SUN
Trace (60%) to 0.3" (20%) to 0.8" (5%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
Â
Â
Â
Boulder
Current TO 930 PM SUN
Trace (75%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (5%)
LOW
Douglas
Current TO 930 PM SUN
Trace (75%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (5%)
LOW
Jefferson
Current TO 930 PM SUN
Trace (75%) to 0.3" (30%) to 0.8" (5%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
2 years, 5 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 342 PM Sun July 3, 2022
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Internal Message Status
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
MESSAGES ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT/VALID UNTIL 930 PM
-
Message 1's have been issued for the entire District and will be
valid until 9:30pm this evening.
-
An outflow boundary from thunderstorms over Larimer and Weld
Counties is moving southward and will enter the District in Boulder
County shortly. This outflow boundary will likely act as a triggering
mechanism for thunderstorms as it continues to progress southward.
Stronger storms that develop on this boundary will have the potential
to produce heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff and
possibly flash flooding.
-
Slower moving thunderstorms or briefly anchored thunderstorms will
pose the greatest risk for extended periods of heavy rainfall. More
typical storms will move from SW to NE at 15-20mph. Best chances for
thunderstorms will be until 8 or 9pm.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers will produce a
trace to 0.2" of rain. Weak to moderate thunderstorms will produce
0.2-0.6" in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms will have the
potential to produce 0.4-1.2" in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: An anchored strong thunderstorm or a slower
moving large thunderstorm may result in up to 2.0" of rain in 60-90
minutes.
COUNTY
MESSAGE
VALID TIMES
PRIME TIME
Jefferson County
1
Current TO 930 PM
430 PM TO 830 PM
Broomfield County
1
Current TO 930 PM
430 PM TO 830 PM
Boulder County
1
Current TO 930 PM
430 PM TO 830 PM
Douglas County
1
Current TO 930 PM
430 PM TO 830 PM
Adams County
1
Current TO 930 PM
430 PM TO 830 PM
Denver County
1
Current TO 930 PM
430 PM TO 830 PM
DIA
1
Current TO 930 PM
430 PM TO 830 PM
Arapahoe County
1
Current TO 930 PM
430 PM TO 830 PM
the City of Aurora
1
Current TO 930 PM
430 PM TO 830 PM
Arvada
1
Current TO 930 PM
430 PM TO 830 PM
Wheat Ridge
1
Current TO 930 PM
430 PM TO 830 PM
Lakewood
1
Current TO 930 PM
430 PM TO 830 PM
County-specific Quantitative
Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Â
Â
Â
Adams
400 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.0" (20%)
ISSUED
Arapahoe
400 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.0" (20%)
ISSUED
Boulder
400 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.0" (25%)
ISSUED
Broomfield
400 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (45%) to 1.0" (20%)
ISSUED
Denver
400 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (75%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.0" (20%)
ISSUED
Douglas
400 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (45%) to 1.0" (20%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
400 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.0" (25%)
ISSUED
Foothills above 6500ft
Â
Â
Â
Boulder
400 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.0" (25%)
ISSUED
Douglas
400 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.0" (25%)
ISSUED
Jefferson
400 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (45%) to 1.0" (20%)
ISSUED
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
2 years, 5 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 1216 PM Sun July 3, 2022
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
SURFACE MOISTURE INCREASING/THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE
-
Surface moisture is increasing as the day wears on instead of mixing
out with dew points in the mid 40's to 50 currently over the District.
The additional moisture to work with at the surface today will lead to
better chances for thunderstorms this afternoon, some of which may
contain heavy rainfall.
-
Thunderstorms are just now beginning to initiate over the higher
terrain west of the District and will become more numerous as the
afternoon progresses. Upper level steering winds from SW to NE at
around 20mph will keep most of the storm activity moving along with
widely scattered coverage. Surface wind convergence or outflow
boundaries may generate slower moving thunderstorms or briefly
anchored thunderstorms which may lead to extended periods of heavy
rainfall and possibly excessive runoff.
-
Prime time for thunderstorm activity will be from roughly 1pm to
9pm. 1-3 rounds of thunderstorms are expected with S and W areas of
the District looking favored at this time for higher storm coverage.
In addition to the threat for heavy rainfall, thunderstorms may also
contain gusty/erratic winds, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning and
possibly hail.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers will produce a
trace to 0.2" of rain. Weak to moderate thunderstorms will produce
0.2-0.6" in 10-30 minutes. Strong thunderstorms will have the
potential to produce 0.4-1.2" in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: An anchored strong thunderstorm or a slower
moving large thunderstorm may result in up to 2.0" of rain in 60-90
minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Isolated to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms
will continue into the 4th of July with best chances from roughly
2-8pm along the I-25 corridor. As daytime heating is lost, storms will
diminish and clouds will decrease leading to dry conditions for
evening celebrations most areas in and around the District. Highs
Monday afternoon will continue to run either side of 90 degrees over
the plains.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Â
Â
Â
Adams
200 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (60%) to 0.5" (30%) to 1.0" (10%)
MOD
Arapahoe
200 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (60%) to 0.5" (30%) to 1.0" (10%)
MOD
Boulder
200 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (70%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.0" (15%)
MOD
Broomfield
200 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (70%) to 0.5" (30%) to 1.0" (10%)
MOD
Denver
200 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (60%) to 0.5" (30%) to 1.0" (10%)
MOD
Douglas
100 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (70%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.0" (15%)
MOD
Jefferson
100 PM TO 900 PM
0.1" (70%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.0" (15%)
MOD
Foothills above 6500ft
Â
Â
Â
Boulder
Current TO 900 PM SUN
0.1" (85%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.0" (20%)
MOD
Douglas
Current TO 900 PM SUN
0.1" (85%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.0" (20%)
MOD
Jefferson
Current TO 900 PM SUN
0.1" (85%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.0" (20%)
MOD
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
2 years, 5 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 836 AM Sun July 3, 2022
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
WARMER TODAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVE RAIN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
-
The somewhat active weather pattern holds today with another chance
for hit and miss afternoon rain showers/isolated thunderstorms.
Slightly warmer already with temperatures already in the upper 60's to
low 70's with highs today flirting with 90°F in the afternoon. A bit
less moisture at the surface this morning will continue throughout the
day with surface dew points expected to bottom out around 40°F this
afternoon and early evening. This should sufficiently decrease the
chance for heavy rainfall today with generally light to brief pockets
of moderate rainfall likely under storms that do develop.
-
Initial rain showers/isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop
along the higher terrain between 12-2pm today with rain
showers/isolated thunderstorms possible in the District between 2-9pm.
Storm motions will generally be WSW to ENE, between 10-15mph with peak
storm chances between 3-7pm. A round or two of storms will be possible
today, with the first round bringing the best chance for moderate
rainfall at this time. Additional rain showers and possibly a weak
thunderstorm will continue until 9pm before skies clear through the
overnight with dry conditions expected after 10pm and into Monday
morning.
-
Overnight lows excepted to drop into the upper 50's to low 60's with
mild and dry conditions expected into daybreak Monday.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and weak
thunderstorms will produce TR-0.1" of rain in 10-30 minutes. Moderate
thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of
0.1-0.4" in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger storm formed along an outflow boundary
or a slower moving thunderstorm will have the potential to produce
moderate to heavy rainfall rates of 0.4-0.8" in 30-45 minutes and up
to 1.2" in 45-75 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: This pattern holds heading into the 4th of July with
another chance for widely scattered rain showers/isolated
thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and early evening with skies likely
clearing into the evening for any evening celebrations. Not much
change in the overall pattern through next week with storms chances
Tuesday through Friday as high temperatures remain in the upper 80's
to low 90's throughout the week as well.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Â
Â
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Adams
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
Arapahoe
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
Boulder
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
Broomfield
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
Denver
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
Douglas
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
Jefferson
200 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (25%) to 0.4" (10%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
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Â
Â
Boulder
100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.4" (20%)
NONE
Douglas
100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.4" (20%)
NONE
Jefferson
100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.4" (20%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
2 years, 5 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 841 AM Sat July 2, 2022
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
WARMER TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVE RAIN/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS
-
Not much change in the overall weather pattern today with another
chance for afternoon and evening rain showers/isolated thunderstorms.
Currently temperatures are in the low to mid 60's across the plains
with highs in the upper 80's to around 90°F this afternoon. Currently
dew points remain elevated with low to mid 50's, however, these dew
points should mix out through the morning into the low to mid 40's.
Once again, with the excess surface moisture in place this morning, a
low chance will remain for message potential this afternoon and
evening.
-
Similar to yesterday, rain showers/isolated thunderstorms are
expected to develop along the higher terrain between 12-2pm today with
rain showers/isolated thunderstorms possible in the District between
2-10pm. Storm motions will generally be west to east, between 10-15mph
with peak storm chances between 2-8pm. A round or two of storms are
possible today, with the first round bringing the best chance for
moderate to heavy rainfall at this time, with additional storm
development possible from outflow boundaries, especially if stronger
storms are able to develop along the Wyoming Ridge and the Palmer
Divide. Additional rain showers and possibly a weak thunderstorm will
continue until midnight then skies will clear with dry conditions
expected after midnight and into Sunday morning.
-
Slightly increased surface moisture and better daytime heating will
be in place for a chance of moderate to brief heavy rainfall today
resulting in a continued low risk for Message issuance, however if
low-level moisture mixes out before adequate heating takes place it
will help keep the moderate to heavy rainfall at bay. Overnight lows
excepted to drop into the upper 50's to low 60's with mild conditions
expected into daybreak Sunday.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and weak
thunderstorms will produce TR-0.2" of rain in 10-30 minutes. Moderate
to briefly strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce
rainfall rates of 0.2-0.5" in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Strong, slower moving thunderstorms if able to
develop will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall rates of
0.5-1.0" in 10-30 minutes and up to 2.0" in 45-75 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: An uptick in mid to upper-level moisture tomorrow,
combined with a weak upper-level disturbance will bring a better
chance for widespread rain showers and isolated thunderstorms in the
afternoon and early evening. There will likely be a continued low to
moderate chance for heavy rainfall Sunday afternoon and early evening
with rain showers tapering off well before midnight. Conditions dry
out slightly for the 4th of July, however a chance will remain for
scattered rain showers/isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon and
evening.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Â
Â
Â
Adams
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Arapahoe
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Boulder
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Broomfield
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Denver
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Douglas
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Jefferson
200 PM TO 1000 PM
Trace (50%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (10%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
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Boulder
100 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (15%)
LOW
Douglas
100 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (15%)
LOW
Jefferson
100 PM TO 900 PM
Trace (75%) to 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (15%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
2 years, 5 months
Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 828 AM Fri July 1, 2022
Forecaster: Justin Brooks
-------------------------
Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
-------------------------
SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON RAIN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
-
Cooler air remains in place over the region today with mid to upper
50's currently across most of the District. High temperatures today
are expected to reach the upper 70's to low 80's this afternoon.
Excess surface moisture is currently in place as dew points hover in
the low 50's this morning before mixing out into the low to mid 40's
this afternoon which should help limit the potential for any heavy
rainfall, however, if dew points do not mix out, there will be a
better chance for moderate to brief heavy rainfall in the District,
effectively keeping a low chance for message potential this afternoon.
-
Rain showers/isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop along
the higher terrain by midday today with rain showers/isolated
thunderstorms possible in the District between 1-8pm. Storm motions
will be west to east between 5-15mph with peak storm chances between
2-6pm this afternoon. One or two rounds of storms are possible today,
with the first round bringing the best chance for moderate to heavy
rainfall at this time. Additional rain showers and possibly a weak
thunderstorm will continue until 8pm then generally dry conditions are
expected after sunset and into Saturday morning.
-
Once again, multiple ingredients are in place for moderate to heavy
rainfall today resulting in a low risk for Message issuance but
relatively fast storm motions and cooler daytime temperatures could
continue to help keep the moderate to heavy rainfall at bay. Overnight
lows will drop into the upper 50's to low 60's with mild conditions
expected into daybreak Saturday.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and weak
thunderstorms will produce TR-0.2" of rain in 10-30 minutes. Moderate
to briefly strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce
rainfall rates of 0.2-0.5" in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Strong, slower moving thunderstorms if able to
develop will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall rates of
0.5-1.0" in 10-30 minutes and up to 2.0" in 45-75 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Similar conditions remain in place Saturday with another
good chance for afternoon and early evening rain showers/isolated
thunderstorms with another low chance for messages likely. Sunday
starts to get a bit warmer as upper-level moisture starts to taper off
leading to a slight chance for afternoon and evening rain
showers/isolated thunderstorms, with little to no chance for heavy
rainfall at this time. The 4th of July looks to be fairly hot as high
temperatures reach around 90°F with a continued slight chance for
afternoon/early evening rain showers/isolated thunderstorms.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Â
Â
Â
Adams
100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%)
LOW
Arapahoe
100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%)
LOW
Boulder
100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%)
LOW
Broomfield
100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%)
LOW
Denver
100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%)
LOW
Douglas
100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%)
LOW
Jefferson
100 PM TO 800 PM
Trace (60%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%)
LOW
Foothills above 6500ft
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Â
Boulder
1200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Douglas
1200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
Jefferson
1200 PM TO 700 PM
Trace (80%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%)
LOW
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
2 years, 5 months