Flash Flood Prediction Program
by f2p2＠udfcd.org
Time: 626 PM Thu June 30, 2022
Forecaster: Brad Simmons
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Heavy Precipitation Outlook
Flash Flood Prediction Program
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TOO COOL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT HAS
DIMINISHED
-
The cloud cover this morning and isolated light shower activity
through early afternoon held temperatures down into the 70's and lower
80's over the plains which was insufficient for the development of
strong thunderstorms today over the District. Now that temperatures
are in the 60's and 70's over the plains the threat for heavy rainfall
has diminished.
-
There will still be a modest chance for rain shower activity and
possibly a very isolated weak thunderstorms into the evening, favoring
areas S of I-70 through 9 or 10pm but the overall trend is for showers
to diminish over the coming hours. Additional, isolated light rain
showers will continue possible after 10pm into the early overnight
with dry conditions expected by midnight or shortly after.
-
Upper level steering winds will keep the remaining showers and
thunderstorms this evening moving along briskly from WSW to ENE at
around 25mph.
STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Rain showers will produce a
trace to 0.1" in 10-30 minutes. Weak thunderstorms will produce
rainfall rates of 0.1-0.3" in 10-30 minutes.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: A moderate to strong thunderstorm is able to
develop with the potential to produce heavy rainfall of 0.3-0.8" in
10-30 minutes.
A LOOK AHEAD: Temperatures will decrease further on Friday with highs
in the 70's to around 80 over the plains. Much like today there will
be ample moisture to work with but will the cooler temperatures hinder
the strong storms like today? The current thinking is... Yes, cooler
temperatures will likely limit the potential for heavy rain, but there
will still be shower and thunderstorm coverage with a low to possibly
moderate threat for brief heavy rain. Greatest coverage of storms on
Friday is likely S of I-70 and in particular over the southern
foothills and Palmer Divide.
LOCATION
PRIME TIME
30-Minute Rainfall
and % Probability Message
Potential
Plains
Â
Â
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Adams
Current TO 1159 PM THU
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (5%)
NONE
Arapahoe
Current TO 1159 PM THU
Trace (75%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Boulder
Current TO 1159 PM THU
Trace (75%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Broomfield
Current TO 1159 PM THU
Trace (50%) to 0.1" (20%) to 0.3" (5%)
NONE
Denver
Current TO 1159 PM THU
Trace (60%) to 0.1" (30%) to 0.3" (5%)
NONE
Douglas
Current TO 1159 PM THU
Trace (75%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Jefferson
Current TO 1159 PM THU
Trace (75%) to 0.1" (40%) to 0.3" (10%)
NONE
Foothills above 6500ft
Â
Â
Â
Boulder
Current TO 1159 PM THU
Trace (80%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (15%)
NONE
Douglas
Current TO 1159 PM THU
Trace (80%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (15%)
NONE
Jefferson
Current TO 1159 PM THU
Trace (80%) to 0.1" (50%) to 0.3" (15%)
NONE
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS.
MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website
[http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]
2 years, 5 months