July 2022 - hpo-ims - Udfcd-Lists.Org

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 913 PM Wed July 27, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S CONTINUE VALID/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS STAGED NORTH OF THE DISTRICT - Message 1's will continue valid until midnight and may be extended should thunderstorm activity linger beyond that time. - Strong thunderstorms have developed over Larimer and Weld Counties and are slowly propagating southward. Should these storms maintain their current strength they will be capable of producing heavy rainfall within the District over the coming hours. - Best chances for stronger thunderstorms will be until around midnight but could linger into the early morning hours on Thursday. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a 0.1-0.5" of rainfall. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will produce rainfall rates of 0.5-1.5" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving thunderstorm or anchored thunderstorm has the potential to produce up to 2.6" of heavy rainfall in 45-75 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Lakewood 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Wheat Ridge 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Arvada 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM the City of Aurora 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Arapahoe County 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM DIA 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Denver County 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Adams County 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Douglas County 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Broomfield County 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Jefferson County 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM Boulder County 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM Current TO 1159 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 1159 PM WED 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1159 PM WED 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1159 PM WED 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1159 PM WED 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1159 PM WED 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM WED 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM WED 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1159 PM WED 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM WED 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM WED 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 454 PM Wed July 27, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S CONTINUE VALID/EVENING AND OVERNIGHT STORMS LIKELY - Message 1's have been issued for the entire District and will continue valid until midnight and possibly beyond. There are some signs that thunderstorm activity may persist and continue well past midnight into the early morning hours on Thursday resulting in Message 1's possibly being extended late this evening. - Although conditions have been quiet up to this point a cold front is expected to move through this evening and increase surface moisture from already elevated levels. Thunderstorms that develop later today and tonight will be very capable of producing heavy rainfall that may lead to excessive runoff. - Best chances for stronger thunderstorms will likely be after 7 or 8pm through about midnight. Additional rain showers and more isolated thunderstorms will remain possible into the overnight period. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a 0.1-0.5" of rainfall. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will produce rainfall rates of 0.5-1.5" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving thunderstorm or anchored thunderstorm has the potential to produce up to 2.6" of heavy rainfall in 45-75 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 700 PM TO 1130 PM Jefferson County 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 700 PM TO 1130 PM Broomfield County 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 700 PM TO 1130 PM Douglas County 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 700 PM TO 1130 PM Adams County 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 700 PM TO 1130 PM Denver County 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 700 PM TO 1130 PM DIA 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 700 PM TO 1130 PM Arapahoe County 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 700 PM TO 1130 PM the City of Aurora 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 700 PM TO 1130 PM Arvada 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 700 PM TO 1130 PM Wheat Ridge 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 700 PM TO 1130 PM Lakewood 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 700 PM TO 1130 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 600 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Arapahoe 600 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Boulder 600 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Broomfield 600 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Denver 600 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Douglas 600 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson 600 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (50%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1159 PM WED 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1159 PM WED 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1159 PM WED 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 208 PM Wed July 27, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for the entire District and will be valid until 11:59pm this evening. A slight chance rain showers/isolated thunderstorms persist past midnight tonight resulting in an extension of Message 1's. - Very similar conditions in place as yesterday with dew points currently in the mid 50's to low 60's. A convergence line just SE of the District has already starting initiating rapid storm development and is expected to continue to pulse up through the afternoon. Additional storms are starting to develop west of the District and are expected to start moving through over the couple of hours. Multiple rounds of storms will be possible today with the best chance for heavy rain between 3pm and 11pm at this time. - Storm motions will generally be from the W/NW to E/SE between 5-10mph, with some erratic storm movement likely off outflow boundaries as storms strengthen through the evening. After 11pm the stronger storms are expected to have moved well east of the District, however a slight chance will remain for a late evening/overnight round of rain showers/isolated thunderstorms with localized heavy rainfall possible through the early morning hours Thursday. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a 0.10-0.5" of rainfall. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will produce rainfall rates of 0.5-1.5" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving thunderstorm anchored off an outflow boundary has the potential to produce up to 2.6" of heavy rainfall in 45-75 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Broomfield County 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 300 PM TO 1100 PM Jefferson County 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 300 PM TO 1100 PM Boulder County 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 300 PM TO 1100 PM Arvada 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 300 PM TO 1100 PM Wheat Ridge 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 300 PM TO 1100 PM the City of Aurora 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 300 PM TO 1100 PM Arapahoe County 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 300 PM TO 1100 PM DIA 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 300 PM TO 1100 PM Denver County 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 300 PM TO 1100 PM Adams County 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 300 PM TO 1100 PM Douglas County 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 300 PM TO 1100 PM Lakewood 1 200 PM TO 1159 PM 300 PM TO 1100 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Arapahoe 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Boulder 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Broomfield 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Denver 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Douglas 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Jefferson 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (80%) to 0.5" (40%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED Douglas 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson 200 PM TO 1159 PM 0.1" (90%) to 0.5" (60%) to 1.5" (30%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 842 AM Wed July 27, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARMER TODAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS - Northwesterly flow aloft will dominate over the region today, bringing clear skies this morning with high temperatures in the mid 80's to around 90 degrees this afternoon. A slight chance for widely scattered afternoon rain showers/isolated thunderstorms with a better chance for widespread rain showers/thunderstorms after 5pm and into the late evening, through 4am with lingering rain showers possible through daybreak Thursday. - Similar to last night, excess low-level moisture combined with a decent upper-level disturbance will result in a good chance for moderate to heavy rainfall this evening. Prime time for heavy rainfall will be between 5pm-2am. Storm motions will generally be W/NW to E/SE this evening, with anchored storms and some erratic storm motions possible along outflow boundaries effectively increasing chances for heavy rainfall. - Overnight lows will drop into the upper 50's to low 60's with continued rainfall chances through daybreak Thursday, however the intensity of storms will diminish significantly after 2am Thursday. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce rainfall amounts of a 0.1 to 0.4" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to brief heavy rain showers/thunderstorms will produce 0.4-1.0" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger, stationary thunderstorm is able to develop with the potential to produce rainfall rates of 1.0-2.0" in 30-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: This active weather pattern will hold into the weekend with storm chances picking up both Thursday and Friday. Thursday will have the greatest threat for continued heavy rainfall during the afternoon and evening as another disturbance moves into the region at that time. Friday's rain chances decrease slightly, however the threat for heavy rainfall will likely remain with a good chance for afternoon and evening rain showers with a slight chance for overnight rain into Saturday. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 500 PM TO 400 AM THU 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (30%) HIGH Arapahoe 500 PM TO 400 AM THU 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (30%) HIGH Boulder 500 PM TO 400 AM THU 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (30%) HIGH Broomfield 500 PM TO 400 AM THU 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (30%) HIGH Denver 500 PM TO 400 AM THU 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (30%) HIGH Douglas 500 PM TO 400 AM THU 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (30%) HIGH Jefferson 500 PM TO 400 AM THU 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (30%) HIGH Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 500 PM TO 400 AM THU 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.0" (40%) HIGH Douglas 500 PM TO 400 AM THU 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.0" (40%) HIGH Jefferson 500 PM TO 400 AM THU 0.1" (90%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.0" (40%) HIGH MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

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Time: 102 AM Wed July 27, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 2:00 AM - Message 1's will be allowed to expire at 2:00 AM as the threat for heavy rainfall has ended for the remainder of the overnight period. - Multiple rounds of moderate to strong thunderstorms moved through the District this afternoon and evening producing brief heavy rainfall and isolated areas of hail in tandem with heavy rain. Thunderstorms have currently diminished with a few light rain showers remaining possible through the overnight period. - Isolated rain shower activity will continue to taper off with additional rainfall amounts generally less than 0.1". With abundant moisture in place, thunderstorms will once again have the potential to produce heavy rainfall Wednesday afternoon and evening. In areas that experienced heavy rainfall today it may not take as much rain to produce excessive runoff on Wednesday. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Isolated light rain showers will produce a a trace to 0.1" of rain or less. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A weak to moderate thunderstorm is able to develop with the potential to produce 0.2-0.6" in 10-30 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Boulder County 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 115 AM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 115 AM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 115 AM Douglas County 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 115 AM Adams County 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 115 AM Denver County 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 115 AM DIA 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 115 AM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 115 AM the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 115 AM Arvada 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 115 AM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 115 AM Lakewood 1 Current TO 200 AM Current TO 115 AM MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 737 PM Tue July 26, 2022 Forecaster: Brad Simmons ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 2:00 AM WEDNESDAY - Message 1's have been extended until 2:00 AM Wednesday as the threat for heavy rainfall will continue into the overnight period. - A boundary is approaching the District from the E and will increase moisture further from already elevated levels. This boundary may initiate new thunderstorm development this evening. Due to the abundant moisture available thunderstorms will be very capable of producing heavy rainfall. - Even weak to moderate thunderstorms will be capable of producing brief heavy rainfall. Stronger storms will have the potential to produce excessive runoff that may lead flash flooding. Some areas of the District today have already reached or exceeded 0.5-1.0" of rain and it may not take as much rain from subsequent storms to produce excessive runoff. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.4" of rainfall. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.4-1.2" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving thunderstorm or briefly anchored thunderstorm may result in up to 2.0" of heavy rainfall in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Broomfield County 1 Current TO 200 AM WEDNESDAY Current TO 100 AM WEDNESDAY Jefferson County 1 Current TO 200 AM WEDNESDAY Current TO 100 AM WEDNESDAY Boulder County 1 Current TO 200 AM WEDNESDAY Current TO 100 AM WEDNESDAY Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 200 AM WEDNESDAY Current TO 100 AM WEDNESDAY Arvada 1 Current TO 200 AM WEDNESDAY Current TO 100 AM WEDNESDAY the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 200 AM WEDNESDAY Current TO 100 AM WEDNESDAY Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 200 AM WEDNESDAY Current TO 100 AM WEDNESDAY DIA 1 Current TO 200 AM WEDNESDAY Current TO 100 AM WEDNESDAY Denver County 1 Current TO 200 AM WEDNESDAY Current TO 100 AM WEDNESDAY Adams County 1 Current TO 200 AM WEDNESDAY Current TO 100 AM WEDNESDAY Douglas County 1 Current TO 200 AM WEDNESDAY Current TO 100 AM WEDNESDAY Lakewood 1 Current TO 200 AM WEDNESDAY Current TO 100 AM WEDNESDAY County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 200 AM WED 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 200 AM WED 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 200 AM WED 0.1" (60%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (15%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 200 AM WED 0.1" (60%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (15%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 200 AM WED 0.1" (80%) to 0.4" (60%) to 1.0" (20%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 200 AM WED 0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 200 AM WED 0.1" (75%) to 0.4" (50%) to 1.0" (15%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 200 AM WED 0.1" (60%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (15%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 200 AM WED 0.1" (60%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (15%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 200 AM WED 0.1" (60%) to 0.4" (40%) to 1.0" (15%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 211 PM Tue July 26, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGE 1'S ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE DISTRICT - Message 1's have been issued for the entire District and will be valid until 8:00pm this evening. - Abundant low-level moisture with dew points in the upper 50's to low 60's, combined with a weak disturbance from the W/NW has resulted in a chance for moderate to brief heavy rainfall this afternoon and early evening. Currently storms have formed along the higher terrain to the W and NW and will move into the District over the next hour or so with a couple of rounds of storms possible into the evening. - Storm motions will be from the W/NW to E/SE around 10mph, with some erratic storm movement likely off outflow boundaries as storms strengthen onto the plains with severe storms possible for areas east of I-25. After 8pm the stronger storms are expected to have moved east of the District, however a slight chance will remain for a late evening/overnight round of scattered rain showers/isolated thunderstorms. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce a trace to 0.3" of rainfall. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.3-0.8" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A slower moving thunderstorm or briefly anchored thunderstorm may result in up to 1.5" of heavy rainfall in 45-60 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME Arapahoe County 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 300 PM TO 700 PM DIA 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 300 PM TO 700 PM Denver County 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 300 PM TO 700 PM Adams County 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 300 PM TO 700 PM Douglas County 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 300 PM TO 700 PM Broomfield County 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 300 PM TO 700 PM Jefferson County 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 300 PM TO 700 PM Boulder County 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 300 PM TO 700 PM Lakewood 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 300 PM TO 700 PM Wheat Ridge 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 300 PM TO 700 PM Arvada 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 300 PM TO 700 PM the City of Aurora 1 200 PM TO 800 PM 300 PM TO 700 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (40%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (40%) to 1.5" (20%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) to 1.5" (10%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) to 1.5" (10%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) to 1.5" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) to 1.5" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.3" (50%) to 0.8" (20%) to 1.5" (10%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (40%) to 1.5" (10%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (40%) to 1.5" (10%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 800 PM TUE 0.3" (60%) to 0.8" (40%) to 1.5" (10%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 816 AM Tue July 26, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARM WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS - An active weather pattern this week with rain showers/thunderstorm chances picking up this afternoon. Currently dew points are in the low to mid 50's and they are expected to drop slightly into the upper 40's to low 50's this afternoon, combined with a weak upper-level disturbance moving through the region this afternoon will result in a LOW chance for Message 1's today. - Storms will first initiate along the higher terrain to the west between 1-3pm this afternoon with storms moving into the District between 2-4pm with the best chance for storm activity through 9pm with skies gradually clearing through the rest of the evening. Storm motions will be fairly brisk, between 10-15mph which should help limit point rainfall amounts, however, the potential for severe weather increases today, favoring areas east of I-25 at this time. These severe storms have the potential to produce localized heavy rainfall, gusty winds 60+mph and hail up to 1". Stronger storms also have the potential to produce outflow boundaries resulting in some erratic storm movements at times, effectively increasing the threat for heavy rainfall today. - High temperatures will reach the mid to upper 80's on the plains this afternoon with around 80 degrees along the foothills. Skies will gradually clear through the overnight with mild conditions expected through daybreak Wednesday as overnight lows drop to the upper 50's to low 60's STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce rainfall amounts of a trace to 0.2" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to brief heavy rain showers/thunderstorms will produce 0.2-0.5" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger, stationary thunderstorm is able to develop with the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.5-1.5" in 45-60 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Similar conditions will remain in place for Wednesday with another threat for severe weather towards NE portions of the state. A continued risk for moderate to heavy rainfall will remain in place for the District Wednesday. A cold front moves into the region early Thursday morning effectively dropping high temperatures into the mid to upper 70's. These cooler temps will play a significant part in whether or not rain showers and thunderstorm intensity will bring heavy rainfall with at least a low chance for Message issuance likely at this time. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) to 1.5" (10%) LOW Arapahoe 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) to 1.5" (10%) LOW Boulder 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) to 1.5" (5%) LOW Broomfield 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) to 1.5" (5%) LOW Denver 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) to 1.5" (5%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (25%) to 1.5" (10%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) to 1.5" (5%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) to 1.5" (5%) LOW Douglas 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) to 1.5" (5%) LOW Jefferson 200 PM TO 900 PM 0.2" (50%) to 0.5" (20%) to 1.5" (5%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

2 years, 5 months

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 847 AM Mon July 25, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Heavy Precipitation Outlook Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- WARMER TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS - Westerly flow aloft will gradually turn northwesterly throughout the day which should help usher in drier mid to upper-level air into the region throughout the day today. Currently, a shallow layer of moisture remains at the surface this morning with elevated dew points in the upper 50's to low 60's resulting in a few areas of patchy fog this morning. This low-level moisture should mix out through the rest of the morning dropping dew points into the low 40's, however, if dew points fail to mix out a chance will remain for brief moderate to heavy rainfall for any rain showers/isolated thunderstorms that do develop this afternoon and early evening. - The best chance for rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will remain along the Palmer Divide and southward today between 1-9pm. A very slight chance for rain showers/isolated thunderstorms to move northward and into the District between 2-8pm, mainly do to a gust front/outflow boundary from storms that develop to the south. If storms are able to develop, there will be a low chance for localized moderate to heavy rainfall favoring southern and eastern portions of the District at this time. This slight chance for moderate to brief heavy rainfall due to excess surface moisture this morning will keep a LOW chance for Message 1 issuance this afternoon and evening. - High temperatures this afternoon will flirt with 90 degrees out at DIA, with low 80's along the foothills. Skies will gradually clear through the overnight with mild conditions expected through daybreak Tuesday as overnight lows drop to the low to mid 60's STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Typical rain showers and weak thunderstorms will produce rainfall amounts of a trace to 0.2" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to brief rain showers/thunderstorms will produce 0.2-0.5" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A stronger, stationary thunderstorm is able to develop with the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.5-1.5" in 45-75 minutes. A LOOK AHEAD: Storm chances remain throughout the week with rain showers/isolated thunderstorm chances picking up tomorrow afternoon and early evening. There will be a decent chance these storms contain moderate to heavy rainfall tomorrow with a slight chance storms could become severe, favoring areas east of I-25 at this time. Afternoon/eve rain showers/isolated thunderstorms will continue Wednesday through Friday with at least a low to moderate chance for heavy rainfall each day this week. LOCATION PRIME TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Arapahoe 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (40%) to 0.2" (25%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW Boulder 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Broomfield 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Denver 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (30%) to 0.2" (20%) to 0.5" (10%) LOW Douglas 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (60%) to 0.2" (40%) to 0.5" (20%) LOW Jefferson 100 PM TO 900 PM 0.1" (50%) to 0.2" (30%) to 0.5" (15%) LOW MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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Flash Flood Prediction Program

by f2p2＠udfcd.org

Time: 601 PM Sun July 24, 2022 Forecaster: Justin Brooks ------------------------- Internal Message Status Flash Flood Prediction Program ------------------------- MESSAGES CONTINUE VALID AT THIS TIME - Message 1's and Message 2's (NWS Flood/Flash Flood Watch) for Boulder and Douglas Counties and will be valid until 10:00 PM. Message 1's remain in effect for the remainder of the District and will also be valid until 10:00 PM. - Widespread rain showers and thunderstorms impacted the District this afternoon and early evening and have since moved out onto the eastern plains. Scattered rain showers will persist over portions of the District over the next few hours before clearing out through the overnight. Most rain showers will be minimal, however a few isolated moderate to brief heavy rain showers cannot be completely ruled out, favoring southern portions of the District at this time. - Temperatures have cooled into the mid to upper 60's and will drop into the upper 50's to low 60's through the overnight with a chance for isolated foggy conditions by daybreak tomorrow. STORM RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DURATION: Weak thunderstorms will produce 0.1-0.3" in 10-30 minutes. Moderate to strong thunderstorms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.3-0.9" in 10-30 minutes. WORST CASE SCENARIO: A large thunderstorm complex or a slower moving large thunderstorm may result in rainfall rates of 0.9-1.5" in 10-30 minutes and up to 2.0" in 45-75 minutes. COUNTY MESSAGE VALID TIMES PRIME TIME the City of Aurora 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Arapahoe County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM DIA 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Denver County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Douglas County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Adams County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Broomfield County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Arvada 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Jefferson County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Boulder County 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Wheat Ridge 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM Lakewood 1 Current TO 1000 PM Current TO 900 PM County-specific Quantitative Precipitation Outlook PRECIPITATION TIME 30-Minute Rainfall and % Probability Message Potential Plains Â Â Â Adams Current TO 1000 PM SUN 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.9" (30%) ISSUED Arapahoe Current TO 1000 PM SUN 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.9" (30%) ISSUED Boulder Current TO 1000 PM SUN 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.9" (30%) ISSUED Broomfield Current TO 1000 PM SUN 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.9" (30%) ISSUED Denver Current TO 1000 PM SUN 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.9" (30%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM SUN 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.9" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM SUN 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.9" (30%) ISSUED Foothills above 6500ft Â Â Â Boulder Current TO 1000 PM SUN 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.9" (30%) ISSUED Douglas Current TO 1000 PM SUN 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.9" (30%) ISSUED Jefferson Current TO 1000 PM SUN 0.1" (90%) to 0.3" (60%) to 0.9" (30%) ISSUED MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTS. MHFD Flood Prediction Center: 303-458-0789 Â Â Â F2P2 Website [http://udfcd.org/Flash+Flood+Prediction+Program]

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